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Old 01-15-2019, 09:02 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Doesn't look like such a hard task to rebuild the defense now, does it.

In 2019:

DL:

We've got Jones under contract (and we should extend him ASAP).
We've got Derrick Nnadi under contract.
We've got Xavier Williams under contract.
We've got Justin Hamilton under contract.

We're losing Allen Bailey, however, so we'll need to add a piece.

OLB:

We've got a choice to make on Dee Ford coming up, but we'll likely keep him.
We've got Justin Houston under contract.
We've got Breeland Speaks under contract.
We've got Tanoh Kpassagnon under contract.

That's a pretty solid depth chart. Add a piece if the value is there but otherwise, we're set.

ILB:

We've got Anthony Hitchens under contract.
We've got Dorian O'Daniel under contract.
We've got Reggie Ragland under contract.
Niemann is under contract as well, but meh.

So adding a player or two here is probably important, but now that Sutton is utilizing the top three correctly, we're pretty solid here.

CB:

We've got Kendall Fuller under contract.
We've got Charvarius Ward under contract.
Tremon Smith is under contract as well, but meh.

This is obviously the biggest area of concern. We're going to need multiple investments at this position -- and not simply bottom of the roster stuff. Assuming we don't keep Steven Nelson, we're going to need to add a starter and depth.

S:

We've got Eric Berry under contract (LET'S JUST ASSUME HE GETS SURGERY).
We've got Daniel Sorensen under contract.
We've got Armani Watts under contract.
We've got Jordan Lucas under contract.
We've got Eric Murray under contract.

Assuming this team does what it needs to do with Berry, which is force him to get surgery, then I don't think we need to make a single addition here. (That's obviously a big if at this point, and Berry could very well retire as well.)

So we're looking at some additions in the front seven, and then some major investments at CB.

That puts us miles ahead of where we thought we were with this defense.

2019 could, somehow, be even better than 2018 was. Which, considering it's going to be the last year we'll have Mahomes on his rookie contract, puts us exactly where we need to be.
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Old 01-16-2019, 09:10 AM   #46
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I really really REALLY think the idea of getting anyone meaningful in free agency ought be just about summarily dismissed.

As has been noted, when we talk about our cap figure for next year that's not even including depth guys like Hamilton, Lucas and Butker who will all get a little bit of it. We're MUCH tighter against the cap than people are discussing if we actually get the extensions put together for guys like Hill and Jones. Common sense and long-term planning says that we really need to get those done and not enter a potential tag situation or end up letting them hit the market outright.

We absolutely have to take care of our own and now's the time to do that. Once that gets done, we're gonna be tight up against the cap and any discussion of guys like Landon Collins is just a complete non-starter unless you're willing to jettison some key part of our younger core or trade off Dee Ford.

The alternative is to simply say "**** it" and push the chips in for 2019. You tag Ford, you let Jones, Hill and Fuller play out their final years at a pittance and you get FAs with low first year figures knowing that their salaries will jump in 2020 and you're simply gonna lose 2, 3 or even all 4 of those guys. It's there. It's a possibility.

But man oh man does it strike me as foolish.
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Old 01-16-2019, 09:22 AM   #47
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I really really REALLY think the idea of getting anyone meaningful in free agency ought be just about summarily dismissed.

As has been noted, when we talk about our cap figure for next year that's not even including depth guys like Hamilton, Lucas and Butker who will all get a little bit of it. We're MUCH tighter against the cap than people are discussing if we actually get the extensions put together for guys like Hill and Jones. Common sense and long-term planning says that we really need to get those done and not enter a potential tag situation or end up letting them hit the market outright.

We absolutely have to take care of our own and now's the time to do that. Once that gets done, we're gonna be tight up against the cap and any discussion of guys like Landon Collins is just a complete non-starter unless you're willing to jettison some key part of our younger core or trade off Dee Ford.

The alternative is to simply say "**** it" and push the chips in for 2019. You tag Ford, you let Jones, Hill and Fuller play out their final years at a pittance and you get FAs with low first year figures knowing that their salaries will jump in 2020 and you're simply gonna lose 2, 3 or even all 4 of those guys. It's there. It's a possibility.

But man oh man does it strike me as foolish.
I've resigned myself to the fact that they aren't likely to dip a foot into the big name free agency pool. Maybe a toe, but they've just got too many guys that are gonna get broken off in house.

The only way I can see it is if they are able to get something done with Houston and Berry money wise to save some, but hell, i'm not really even sure if that's possible.

You've also got Schwartz who could ask for a raise.
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Old 01-16-2019, 09:24 AM   #48
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I think you need to look for guys that are more filler in free agency than actual flash.

Maybe a guy on the tail end of his career or a young guy that just didn't fit where he got drafted.

Shane Ray fits that profile, but if he weren't from MU, I doubt anyone would be that enamored there.

Someone like Mo Wilkerson coming off an injury for a prove it deal could be interesting.
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Old 01-16-2019, 09:48 AM   #49
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I've resigned myself to the fact that they aren't likely to dip a foot into the big name free agency pool. Maybe a toe, but they've just got too many guys that are gonna get broken off in house.

The only way I can see it is if they are able to get something done with Houston and Berry money wise to save some, but hell, i'm not really even sure if that's possible.

You've also got Schwartz who could ask for a raise.
Hard to ask for a raise when you're still 2 years away from FA. If they wanted to give him a 2 year extension to keep him around for 4 years and in so doing give him a signing bonus that creates a year 1 cash bump, it could be done in a largely cap neutral fashion and take care of him for a little while longer. He'd have more money in pocket and we'd have long-term stability there. So you give him a 2 year, $22 million extension w/ a $8 million signing bonus maybe? So that would yield a 4 year, $43 million deal (when his current 2 remaining years at $13 million are added in). You could give him a base salary of $2 million in year 1 then 6, 7 and 8 years 3-4.

So in year 1 he'd get $10 million in salary and signing bonus with a cap hit of $6.8 million (2 million in pro-rated bonus, 2 million in base and 2.8 in accelerated bonus off his previous deal). Years 2-4 would be at 8, 9 and 10 respectively in cap. His cash payments in year 2 would be a slight bump from 6.5 to 7 and his cap figure would be effectively unchanged that year. His next two years would see slightly below market salaries but if we were to guarantee the salary for years 2 and 3, that would provide him incentive to take it.

It's doable and if you were interested, now would be the time given that there's still some risk of age/injury related decline. That said, he just had the best year of his career and he may be more inclined to simply bet on himself.

It's just damn hard for a player to hold out these days with the penalties associated with it. Especially when they don't play a high profile position and have 2 more years left on the deal.
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Old 01-16-2019, 09:52 AM   #50
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Hard to ask for a raise when you're still 2 years away from FA. If they wanted to give him a 2 year extension to keep him around for 4 years and in so doing give him a signing bonus that creates a year 1 cash bump, it could be done in a largely cap neutral fashion and take care of him for a little while longer. He'd have more money in pocket and we'd have long-term stability there. So you give him a 2 year, $22 million extension w/ a $8 million signing bonus maybe? So that would yield a 4 year, $43 million deal (when his current 2 remaining years at $13 million are added in). You could give him a base salary of $2 million in year 1 then 6, 7 and 8 years 3-4.

So in year 1 he'd get $10 million in salary and signing bonus with a cap hit of $6.8 million (2 million in pro-rated bonus, 2 million in base and 2.8 in accelerated bonus off his previous deal). Years 2-4 would be at 8, 9 and 10 respectively in cap. His cash payments in year 2 would be a slight bump from 6.5 to 7 and his cap figure would be effectively unchanged that year. His next two years would see slightly below market salaries but if we were to guarantee the salary for years 2 and 3, that would provide him incentive to take it.

It's doable and if you were interested, now would be the time given that there's still some risk of age/injury related decline. That said, he just had the best year of his career and he may be more inclined to simply bet on himself.

It's just damn hard for a player to hold out these days with the penalties associated with it. Especially when they don't play a high profile position and have 2 more years left on the deal.
True.

Just based on his social media and his wifes and his brothers, I think he really likes in in KC. Especially now with Mahomes, he seems to really like being with Andy. He's a leader on the offense for sure so I wouldn't be upset keeping him around. He's a stud.
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Old 01-16-2019, 09:55 AM   #51
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I really really REALLY think the idea of getting anyone meaningful in free agency ought be just about summarily dismissed.

As has been noted, when we talk about our cap figure for next year that's not even including depth guys like Hamilton, Lucas and Butker who will all get a little bit of it. We're MUCH tighter against the cap than people are discussing if we actually get the extensions put together for guys like Hill and Jones. Common sense and long-term planning says that we really need to get those done and not enter a potential tag situation or end up letting them hit the market outright.

We absolutely have to take care of our own and now's the time to do that. Once that gets done, we're gonna be tight up against the cap and any discussion of guys like Landon Collins is just a complete non-starter unless you're willing to jettison some key part of our younger core or trade off Dee Ford.

The alternative is to simply say "**** it" and push the chips in for 2019. You tag Ford, you let Jones, Hill and Fuller play out their final years at a pittance and you get FAs with low first year figures knowing that their salaries will jump in 2020 and you're simply gonna lose 2, 3 or even all 4 of those guys. It's there. It's a possibility.

But man oh man does it strike me as foolish.
I don't think we have a chance at the younger guys, but someone like Earl Thomas who is a bit older I think we could have a decent chance at.

There are a lot of even older vets out there in FA who we could attract on the cheap. Some productive vets to bolster our defense in the short term could be a good play while we develop our draft picks and make them really earn starting jobs.
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Old 01-16-2019, 09:58 AM   #52
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Earl will probably get like 3 years 40 mil though. You could fit it in sure, but damn.
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Old 01-16-2019, 12:39 PM   #53
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I wonder if Berry and Houston don't want to restructure if we will end up cutting or trading them? Wouldn't be a good idea without a replacement plan in place, but signing Ford, Hill, and Jones have to be priority.

What do you think is non ridiculous for Ford? I'm kind of mixed on it. Has he proven enough beyond one year to warrant a historic contract? At the same time, this defense especially can't afford to lose it's best players.

Ford and Hill are going to get their money. I just hope that it is something somewhat reasonable. That would help for the flexibility of the future and building on what we have.
I don't like cutting or trading either Berry or Houston (depending on the health outlook for Berry after surgery), In those situations the dead cap is just too large in my opinion. From memory the dead cap on Houston was around $7.5m per year, if you cut him you have $12.5m to spend on a replacement, I don't think you find someone to create his production for $12.5m in free agency.

On Ford, I think a non-ridiculous contract is $13-16m per year average.
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Old 01-16-2019, 12:44 PM   #54
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I don't like cutting or trading either Berry or Houston (depending on the health outlook for Berry after surgery), In those situations the dead cap is just too large in my opinion. From memory the dead cap on Houston was around $7.5m per year, if you cut him you have $12.5m to spend on a replacement, I don't think you find someone to create his production for $12.5m in free agency.

On Ford, I think a non-ridiculous contract is $13-16m per year average.
Any agent is going to use 2 franchise seasons as the starting point; that's gonna be $16 and $20 million. So you're at $18 million/season right there.

I know many don't trust him and think he's a regression candidate - he may well be. But if we don't tag him and he hits the market, his demand will be HUGE. He may be the most sought after defensive player in all of free agency. His agent knows that and will set his demands accordingly.

If we got him at $16 million in AAV, we'd be damn lucky. I don't see it as being likely but I can still hope...
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Old 01-16-2019, 12:47 PM   #55
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Earl will probably get like 3 years 40 mil though. You could fit it in sure, but damn.
Earl Thomas is going to run straight for Dallas when he hits FA.
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Old 01-16-2019, 12:48 PM   #56
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Any agent is going to use 2 franchise seasons as the starting point; that's gonna be $16 and $20 million. So you're at $18 million/season right there.

I know many don't trust him and think he's a regression candidate - he may well be. But if we don't tag him and he hits the market, his demand will be HUGE. He may be the most sought after defensive player in all of free agency. His agent knows that and will set his demands accordingly.

If we got him at $16 million in AAV, we'd be damn lucky. I don't see it as being likely but I can still hope...
I know you talked about giving Ford an Ingram type deal with an uptick.

Something like 4 years and $70 million?
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Old 01-16-2019, 12:50 PM   #57
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Earl will probably get like 3 years 40 mil though. You could fit it in sure, but damn.
I think a few mock drafts on here have show you can squeeze a big free agent in and extend Jones and Hill, but resigning Ford sort of counts as that big re-signing.

You're probably creating a situation where you definitely can't touch FA in 2020, but they kind of made that bed when they signed Watkins.

I just made this on Spotrac, this is the roster only re-signing ERFA/RFA but giving Hill and Jones extensions per the recent KCCrow mock - https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tools/ro...4165d70361fb5/

It gives $24m to play with but for that, you need to make a decision on Ford and then make tons of little re-signings like maybe bring Devey back for line depth or Sherman or DAT

Question for DJ I guess - do you let Ford walk if moving to a 4-3?
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Old 01-16-2019, 01:25 PM   #58
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I know you talked about giving Ford an Ingram type deal with an uptick.

Something like 4 years and $70 million?
That's pretty much exactly what I think it would cost and a deal I'd be willing to make. I would be nervous - you can't help but be on long-term deals - but I'd do it and he'd be the throughput for the next generation of Chiefs pass-rushers after 1 last season from Houston in 2019.
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Old 01-16-2019, 01:28 PM   #59
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That's pretty much exactly what I think it would cost and a deal I'd be willing to make. I would be nervous - you can't help but be on long-term deals - but I'd do it and he'd be the throughput for the next generation of Chiefs pass-rushers after 1 last season from Houston in 2019.
I'm all for signing Ford to that deal. Give Hill and Jones new deals and then MAYBE find one or two depth pieces (1 year deals) in FA to help out a couple of spots. Other than that....roll into the draft and improve the team that way.

Barring any major injuries....I think that makes us better than 12-4 next year.
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Old 01-16-2019, 01:31 PM   #60
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I think a few mock drafts on here have show you can squeeze a big free agent in and extend Jones and Hill, but resigning Ford sort of counts as that big re-signing.

You're probably creating a situation where you definitely can't touch FA in 2020, but they kind of made that bed when they signed Watkins.

I just made this on Spotrac, this is the roster only re-signing ERFA/RFA but giving Hill and Jones extensions per the recent KCCrow mock - https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tools/ro...4165d70361fb5/

It gives $24m to play with but for that, you need to make a decision on Ford and then make tons of little re-signings like maybe bring Devey back for line depth or Sherman or DAT

Question for DJ I guess - do you let Ford walk if moving to a 4-3?
No because he could be used well as a Will linebacker in a 4-3, IMO and frankly we play so much 2-4-5 anyway that it probably doesn't matter. We effectively spend half the game in some version of a 4-3 anyway when we play our 2-4-5 sets and just line Houston and Ford out on wider splits. Then against the Colts we actually played some 4 man fronts with 5 and 6 guys along the line (4 DL and walked Ford/Houston along the edges).

He'd be utilized just fine in a 4-3 but ultimately our OLB use is so fluid that it just may not matter anymore.
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Fort Worth Texas Process Servers
Covering Arlington, Fort Worth, Grand Prairie and surrounding communities.
Tarrant County, Texas and Johnson County, Texas.
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