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Old 12-26-2018, 09:19 PM  
kccrow kccrow is offline
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Mock 12/26

The Chiefs fire Bob Sutton in the offseason and hire Kris Richard, currently the defensive backs coach for the Dallas Cowboys and former defensive coordinator for the Seattle Seahawks (2015-17). Under Richard, the Chiefs switch to a 4-3 Under base defense.

Extensions

WR Tyreek Hill: It's imperative to lock up the team's most dynamic player long-term and give Mahomes a weapon for the foreseeable future. Hill must be retained and he won't get cheaper.
5 years/$95.0m contract extension with $65m in guarantees, $42m guaranteed at signing, and $20m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 6.097 2020: 18.75 2021: 19.25 2022: 19.75 2023: 18.25 2024: 15.00
Notes: Hill will earn the NFL Proven Performance Escalator for the last year of his rookie deal which means his base salary will increase to the Right of First Refusal tender amount. That amount was $1.907 million in 2018 and increases by the percentage the cap increases with a minimum of 5% and a maximum of 10%. If the NFL carries through with an approximate 6% increase in the cap, then that base will be $2.02 million, which was used in the 2019 cap estimate.

DL Chris Jones: I've been preaching the same thing Andy Reid mentioned not too long ago: the quickest route to the QB is a straight line and having defensive lineman that can get after them up the middle is better than good edge rushers in today's NFL that sees QBs get the ball out quicker than ever. Jones has stepped up his game considerably and we should project that to continue.
5 years, $81.0m contract extension with $40.0m guaranteed at signing including $20.0m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 5.98 2020: 13.00 2021: 15.00 2022: 16.00 2023: 17.00 2024: 16.00

Note: These moves and Tyreek's performance escalator reduce 2019 cap space by $9.997m in 2019 and $31.750m in 2020.

Tags/Tenders
FS Jordan Lucas: RFA Original Round Tender estimated $2.02m (Hoping KC reaches an extension agreement to lower the hit)
DL Justin Hamilton: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
PK Harrison Butker: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
WR Markus Kemp: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
WR Gehrig Deiter: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus

Cuts & Trades

SS Eric Berry: Eric Berry, despite his leadership, has been available far less than a player making his salary should be. It's time to move on and get guys in here that are. The move is a June 1st designation which frees up an additional $9.55m in 2019 and $5.50m in 2020 with dead money of $6.95 and 8.00m in each year respectively.

SS Daniel Sorensen: Sorensen hasn't been much of an asset since signing his extension, routinely missing tackles and being subpar in coverage assignments. The Chiefs ailments in the back end are extensive and require re-tooling. The move frees up an additional $2.693m in cap space in 2019 and $4.75m in 2020 with dead money of $2.0m in 2019.

OLB Justin Houston : Houston hasn't been the same since his surgery, but remains a quality player. That said, the Chiefs need a cultural shift in the offseason and watching Houston's play this season leads me to believe he's as much a part of the problem. No more half-assed efforts. Chiefs trade Justin Houston to the New York Jets for a 2019 4th round pick and swap of 2019 6th round picks. The move gives the Chiefs $14.0m of additional cap space in 2019 and $19.0m of additional cap space in 2020 with dead money of $7.10m in 2019.

Note: The Chiefs gain $26.24m of cap space with these moves for 2019 and $29.25m in 2020. Dead money is certainly an issue that cannot be disregarded but likely a necessity for this team to take the next step. Dead money totals $16.05m in 2019 and $8.00m in 2020.


Acquisitions

OLB Markus Golden (ARZ): Golden looked like a star in 2016 but a torn ACL in 2017 kept him out most of the season and he's had an off 2018 just 1-year removed from injury. He should be 100% for 2019, so he's well worth the shot of bringing home to Missouri. It would need to be a short contract with an easy out if he doesn't work out in year 1 so I'm thinking a per year valuation somewhere around Alex Okafor.
3 years/$9.50m with $2.25m signing bonus with potential performance escalators of $2.0m in each year if certain statistical milestones are met. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 2.50 2020: 3.25 2021: 3.75

CB Ronald Darby (PHI): Darby is a bit of a gamble coming off an ACL injury, but if he's on track in March he could still see a pay day similar to Allen Robinson. I'm going to go all out here and sign him to a lucrative deal that has some protections in it should the Chiefs need to release him after one season. He's a far better corner than anyone on the Chiefs roster.
5 years/$65.5m with $16.5m guaranteed, a $10.5m signing bonus, and $14.25m in potential additional guarantees including roster bonuses of $3.0m in 2020 and $4.0m in 2021 as well as a salary guarantee of $7.25m in 2020 if he's on the roster the 5th day of those respective league years. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 8.25 2020: 12.50 2021: 13.75 2022: 14.75 2023: 16.25

FS Earl Thomas (SEA): The Chiefs tried to trade for Earl Thomas before he broke his leg (again) so I fully expect Brett Veach to pursue Thomas heavily in free agency. Thomas is one of the most productive free safeties in the league and with the relative uncertainty with Berry from year-to-year and game-to-game, the Chiefs desperately need another leader in the secondary. Thomas' recent injury history is cause for concern with his slender build but the Chiefs' secondary is also cause for concern.
3 years/$36.0m with $16.5m guaranteed and $9.0m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 10.50 2020: 12.00 2021: 13.50

TE Maxx Williams (BAL): Williams has had alot of injuries throughout his career but he's still extremely young and has flashed what made him a high round pick. He'd make an excellent number two type with solid hands, route running, and blocking ability.
3 years/$9.0m with $1.5m signing bonus, and $1.0m roster bonuses in 2020 and 2021 if he's on the roster the 5th day of the new league year. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 2.00 2020: 3.25 2021: 3.75

CB E.J. Gaines (CLE): I've changed my stance on Gaines' value going into the offseason because he's hardly been available this year and has only played in 6 games with 2 starts. That said, if/when Gaines is healthy he's actually a very good player. He's probably going to be a 1-year deal type of player the remainder of his career because of his history, but he's the type of player that might give you some time with rookies.
1 year/$1.50m with $500k guaranteed at signing. Cap Hit 2019: 1.50

Re-signings

OLB Dee Ford: Ford has developed into one of the premier edge rushers in the NFL, so letting him go would be a tough pill to swallow. Ford will fit perfectly in Richard's defense That said, re-signing him with the extensions of Hill and Jones will force the Chiefs' hand in the handling of the future salary cap.
5 years/$86.00m with 41.00m guaranteed at signing including a 20.00m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 13.00 2020: 16.00 2021: 17.00 2022: 20.00 2023 20.00

RB Damien Williams: Showed some good things in his start against the Chargers, effective running and receiving. He's healthier than Ware and showed more burst. Chiefs bring him back on a team friendly deal.
2 years/$3.1m including $1.0m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.50 2020: 1.60

FB Anthony Sherman: Sherman is one of the better fullbacks in the league and is excellent on special teams. His volume of usage offensively gives me pause, but if there's space to sign him then I'd undoubtedly do so.
4 years/$8.4m with $5.0m guaranteed and $2.4m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.90 2020: 2.00 2021: 2.20 2022: 2.30

All PS on Minimal Deals that likely don't affect Top-51.

Let Walk

DE Allen Bailey, CB Orlando Scandrick, TE Demetrius Harris, FS Josh Shaw, RB Spencer Ware, OC Mitch Morse, FS Ron Parker, WR De'Anthony Thomas, OLB Frank Zombo, CB Steven Nelson, ILB Terrence Smith, WR Chris Conley, FB Anthony Sherman

Notes: Bailey is an okay player, and would be especially good situationally, but is costing too much to bring back. Anthony Sherman, while a great fullback and special teams player, isn't on the field enough and his contributions could be replaced by as little as an UDFA at a fraction of the cost. Nelson is okay and could even be a guy to consider bringing back, but this secondary made me cringe so much against LA that I'd rather blow it up. Conley is a solid role player at WR but he doesn't contribute enough to really say he's worth retaining at an advanced salary, plus I really liked what Pringle brought to the table in preseason.


Draft

Chiefs have a projected 6th round compensatory selection for Bennie Logan.

1. SS Johnathan Abram, Mississippi State (5'11" 210)
Excellent size, speed, and agility for a strong safety. Fluid movements in coverage and lines up well against TEs and RBs. Excellent run defender that fills down hill agressively. Attacks blockers and shows ability to shed. Smart player that puts himself in the correct position to make plays on the ball and makes the correct reads. Has had issues at times with missed tackles, especially due to bad angles, that he'll have to clean up. Needs work in man coverage and doesn't look to have the ability to line up over slot receivers.

2. CB Blace Brown, Troy (6'0" 185) (f/LAR)
Athletic cover corner with top-end speed and agility to general stick with any receiver on any route. Extremely adept at off-man coverage. Good and willing tackler. Outstanding ball skills. Loose hips to turn and run on a dime with receivers but sometimes bails too early. Shows a first round skill set at times but played sub-caliber talent and has a thin frame. He didn't show well against Boise State this year, which is one of his few knocks. Has ability to rotate into the slot.

2. OLB DeAndre Walker, Georgia (6'2" 250)
Walker is the type of 3-4 OLB/4-3 SOLB I think the NFL will be trending to more and more. He's a bit undersized, but he's quick and exteremly versatile in that he can rush the passer and is very functional in coverage with good speed and range. Very similar body type to Dee Ford. Reminds me alot of both Jamie Collins and Joe Schoebert coming out in that he has the speed and athleticism to convert to more of a traditional linebacker rather than purely and edge defender.

3. WR K.J. Hill, Ohio State (6'0" 200)
Hill is that prototypical Reid receiver that can work the underneath routes and eat up tons of YAC. Hill has good quickness and good top-end speed that he rarely was able to display at OSU given his usage, but don't be surprised when he runs in the low 4.4s. Hill probably has the best hands in this receiving class to boot. May go lower than he should because of the limited number of routes he was asked to run in college. Will need to learn the entire tree and polish his route-running ability. Has already stated that he is likely to declare, especially since he'll graduate.

4. DT Kingsley Keke, Texas A&M (6'4" 305) [f/NYJ-Houston]
Keke had a resurgence of a season at Texas A&M with 6.5 sacks and showed outstanding tackle production for a 3rd consecutive season. Very quick and disruptive at the LOS. Shows good lateral agility to make plays. Best as a 1-gap player and would ideally fit in a defense that uses a 1-gap 3-tech lineman. Keke is severely underrated and could be a steal in this draft.

5. RB Ryquell Amrstead, Temple (5'11" 215)
Powerful runner that hits the hole quickly. Elite burst once he sees his lane. Decisive one-cut type of back with excellent vision. Shows good strength running through tackles with excellent leg drive and is always moving forward. Agility in the open field to make defenders miss. Lacks elite speed but has enough to take it the distance with long strides. Functional as a reciever and pass blocker and should improve with more exposure.

6. FS Kyle Gibson, Central Florida (5'11' 185) [f/NYJ-Houston]
Very quick safety/corner with range and decent ball skills. Played a ton of single-high at UCF and was one of their best defenders. Good in coverage and good at flowing to the football but needs to put on more weight for hitting NFL players and keeping them down. Can play nickel back.

6. OL Sean Rawlings, Ole Miss (6'5" 294) (Comp-Logan)
Very athletic offensive lineman with good technique. Will need to add good weight and strength at the pro level but is the type of player Reid tends to covet on the offensive line. Experience at tackle and center, but looks best on the inside and would be a good developmental player on the interior O-Line.

7. RB/WR Tony Brooks-James, Oregon (5'9" 180) (f/SF)
Andy Reid's new play thing with a similar skillset to D'Anthony Thomas and my have more potential as a WR where his outsanding speed, agility, and hands will have the most impact. Likely only a RB situationally. Ace kick return type.

Estimated Remaining Cap: $7.48m

Roster (Not representative of 53)

QB: Patrick Mahomes, Chad Henne, Chase Litton
RB: Damien Williams, Ryquell Armstead, Darrel Williams, Tony Brooks-James (/WR)
FB: Anthony Sherman
TE: Travis Kelce, Maxx Williams, Deon Yelder
WR: Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, Byron Pringle, K.J. Hill, Marcus Kemp, Gehrig Dieter
OT: Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz, Andrew Wylie
OG: Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Cameron Erving, Ryan Hunter, Khalil McKenzie
OC: Austin Reiter, Sean Rawlings, Jimmy Murray
LEO: Dee Ford, Markus Golden, Rob McCray
DE5T: Chris Jones, Tanoh Kpassagnon
DT3T: Breeland Speaks, Kingsley Keke, Joey Ivie
DT1T: Derrick Nnadi, Xavier Williams, Justin Hamilton
LB: Anthony Hitchens (MLB), Dorian O'Daniel (WLB), DeAndre Walker (SLB), Ben Niemann, Reggie Ragland
CB: Ronald Darby, Kendall Fuller, Blace Brown, E.J. Gaines, Charvarius Ward, Tremon Smith, D'Montre Wade
FS: Earl Thomas, Eric Murray, Kyle Gibson (/NB)
SS: Johnathan Abram, Armani Watts, Jordan Lucas
ST: Harrison Butker, Dustin Colquitt, James Winchester

Note: Reiter was re-signed to a 2 year extension with cap hits of $1.458m in 2019 and $2.758m in 2020.

Last edited by kccrow; 12-28-2018 at 01:52 PM.. Reason: Bad maths...
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Old 12-28-2018, 08:58 AM   #16
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I see now that you’re Damien Williams price is lower than the Chiefs actual payment, but to be honest I always thought that this projection was a little cheap for him.

I think on the open market he may have gotten $5M per year (Dion Lewis last yr), or at least a guaranteed $4M per. Jerrick McKinnon even got $7.5M per year last free agency. So I actually thought the Chiefs got a good deal.
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Old 12-28-2018, 09:56 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 View Post
I see now that youíre Damien Williams price is lower than the Chiefs actual payment, but to be honest I always thought that this projection was a little cheap for him.

I think on the open market he may have gotten $5M per year (Dion Lewis last yr), or at least a guaranteed $4M per. Jerrick McKinnon even got $7.5M per year last free agency. So I actually thought the Chiefs got a good deal.
We have no idea yet if my price is actually lower or not. The deal was stated as 2 years max value of 8.1 million. That term "max" tells me the deal is laden with performance incentives. I'm fine with that.

Where I disagree with you is on his market value. He had zero market value when he came here because he had 4 years in the league averaging 3.6 yards per carry. He was lucky the Chiefs gave him a shot as a 3rd down receiving back. The fact that he has an entire 2 games of good production here doesn't mean the league was going to offer him 5 per year. Now, he could produce at that level going forward and I think the Chiefs, given this contract, expect that he has that ability.

I'm guessing the base deal is about 1 million per above my projection. We'll see where it ends up. I'm not elated by the contract and think it's significant risk by the Chiefs IF it's not about 50% performance incentives
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Old 12-28-2018, 10:22 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kccrow View Post
We have no idea yet if my price is actually lower or not. The deal was stated as 2 years max value of 8.1 million. That term "max" tells me the deal is laden with performance incentives. I'm fine with that.

Where I disagree with you is on his market value. He had zero market value when he came here because he had 4 years in the league averaging 3.6 yards per carry. He was lucky the Chiefs gave him a shot as a 3rd down receiving back. The fact that he has an entire 2 games of good production here doesn't mean the league was going to offer him 5 per year. Now, he could produce at that level going forward and I think the Chiefs, given this contract, expect that he has that ability.

I'm guessing the base deal is about 1 million per above my projection. We'll see where it ends up. I'm not elated by the contract and think it's significant risk by the Chiefs IF it's not about 50% performance incentives
It could be the case. I donít really think too much about the Miami days with Williams because this is a guy who has shined ever since coming to KC, even in training camp to a great degree. Miami RBs have all struggled to produce at a high level for awhile now, I donít know what the deal is. But he fits this offense in KC like a glove. And beyond the stats and on-field impact, I just love his attitude and physicality. He plays with a massive chip on his shoulder.

Youíre probably right on the contract. Probably one of those things where if he makes $8.1M, heíll have damn well earned it and then some.
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Old 12-28-2018, 01:20 PM   #19
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Letís go ahead and pull the June 1 cut on Berry.
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Old 12-30-2018, 08:58 PM   #20
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Like to see Pringle replace Connelly, and K.J. Hill working underneath crossing routes with Kelce is interesting.

Like priority picks used for the DBs.

Hoping to see some help at ILB.
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