Offseason Plan 2.0 (12/16/15)

[kccrow]

Just in time for the holidays, here's my offseason plan Part Deux.

Free Agency

Exclusive Rights Free Agents
Demetrius Harris - TE - 1 year, $600,000. Cap hit of $600,000.
Frankie Hammond - WR - 1 year, $600,000. Cap hit of $600,000.
Charcandrick West - RB - 1 year, $600,000. Cap hit of $600,000.
Daniel Sorensen - SS - 1 year, $600,000. Cap hit of $600,000.
Nicholas Williams - 34DT - 1 year, $600,000. Cap hit of $600,000.

Unrestricted Free Agents
Eric Berry - SS (KC) - 5 year, $48 million with $15 million signing bonus and $22 million in total guarantees. Cap hits of $7.5, 9.0, 9.0, 11.0, and 11.5 million. Average annual cap hit of $9.6 million.
Jaye Howard - DE (KC) - 4 year, 25 million with 10 million signing bonus and 12 million in total guarantees. Cap hits of 4.6, 5.3, 7.2, and 7.9 million. Average annual cap hit of 6.25 million.
Derrick Johnson - ILB (KC) - 2 year, 8.25 million with 2 million signing bonus. Cap hits of 3.75 and 4.5 million. Average annual cap hit of 4.125 million.
Jeff Allen - OG (KC) - 4 year, 17 million with 4 million signing bonus and 5 million in total guarantees. Cap hits of 2.5, 4.5, 4.7, and 5.3 million. Average annual cap hit of 4.25 million.
Husain Abdullah - FS (KC) - 2 year, 3.25 million with 750,000 signing bonus. Cap hits of 1.50 and 1.75 million. Average annual cap hit of 1.625 million
Jah Reid - OT (KC) - 1 year, 840,000 with 50,000 signing bonus. Cap hit of 665,000.
Frank Zombo - OLB (KC) - 1 year, 840,000 with 50,000 signing bonus. Cap hit of 665,000.
Dezman Moses - OLB (KC) - 1 year, 675,000. Cap hit of 675,000.
Rishard Matthews - WR (MIA) - 2 year, 6.2 million with 1 million signing bonus and 2 million in total guarantees. Cap hits of 2.6 and 3.6 million.

Approximate Total Cap Hits before Draft Picks - 142.4 million


Draft
1. OT Jason Spriggs - Indiana (6'6" 305)

The right tackle position has been a thorn in the Chiefs' side for a few years now; let's call it a revolving door of medicority or worse. It really is time for KC to give themselves a pair of bookend tackles that can consistently keep Alex Smith standing upright. Spriggs is the type of long, athletic tackle that Dorsey and company seem to covet. Spriggs is an excellent mover in space with good feet and can be a great run blocker. Spriggs can easily function as a swing tackle if need be, giving the Chiefs a little bit more insurance for Eric Fisher.

2. SS Jeremy Cash - Duke (6'1" 208)

The Chiefs have some important free agent decisions to make with Eric Berry, Tyvon Branch, and Husain Abdullah all set to hit the market. I expect KC to retain two of the three, with Eric Berry being priority one. Cash already plays exactly the way Sutton likes to use his 3rd safety, close to the line of scrimmage and in slot coverage. Cash is one of the best playmakers in the country against the run and is very good in coverage. His abilities might give him a shot to go round one, but preliminarily he's being ranked as a 2nd to 3rd rounder. Cash is a perfect fit for Sutton's defense.

3. QB Brandon Doughty - Western Kentucky (6'3" 216)

The quarterback situation for the Chiefs is a huge question mark going into 2016, with very little known about the depth players behind Alex Smith: Tyler Bray and Aaron Murray. Bray was signed to a two year extension but has spent this season on the non-football injury list. Meanwhile, the Chiefs didn't give Aaron Murray much of an opportunity to throw the football last pre-season. With it a given that the Chiefs can't afford to bring back backup Chase Daniel at his current rate, they would be smart to add more serious competition at the position. Doughty checks a ton of boxes as a passer and actually reminds me alot of Alex Smith. I think a few years on the bench behind Smith, learning the nuances of the game, will make Doughty a much better player in the future and a potential franchise type QB.

4. CB Eric Murray - Minnesota (6'0" 196)

I'm expecting that KC won't be able to retain all of their free agents and the biggest hit will probably be losing Sean Smith at corner. The Chiefs have some great youngsters in Marcus Peters and Phillip Gaines, providing Gaines comes back 100% from injury. They need more competition though, and Murray is the type of long, man cover corner that Sutton loves. While not the ballhawking type that Peters is, nor the athlete that Gaines is, Murray is a steady type of player that gets the job done week-in and week-out.

5. WR Keyarris Garrett - Tulsa (6'3" 221)

I thought long and hard about adding a receiver earlier than this, but I'm adding budding Miami Dolphins starter Rishard Matthews via free agency so the need isn't as pressing. Garrett is a long athlete with great field awareness and top notch hands. He isn't a speed demon, but he does have sneaky deep speed. Garrett shows the ability to find open spots in zone, is reliable on in routes and slants, and comes back to his quarterback when things break down. With good leaping ability and height, he's also a good endzone target.

5. DE Ronald Blair III - Appalachian State (6'3" 272)

The Chiefs' lose a great player in Tamba Hali if he chooses to hang up the cleats after this season, something I fully expect. If he doesn't, the Chiefs will undoubtedly find a way to bring him back. Until that situation is clarified, I'm expecting the Chiefs to look for depth behind Dee Ford and Justin Houston, especially given that both Dezman Moses and Frank Zombo are free agents. Blair is a guy I really like and he isn't very high on the radar yet. This is a guy that brings it every down, plays the run well, bends the edge, and can bear down on a QB. Blair is highly underrated, probably because of level of competition but he was a man amongst boys against Clemson this year. I'm sold.

6. DT Matt Ioannidis - Temple (6'3" 292)

The Chiefs will have some free agent issues to address at 3-4 defensive end as well. Mike DeVito and Jaye Howard are both free agents, so I don't expect the Chiefs to bring both back. Howard has to be priority one at the position and is probably the second most important free agent after Eric Berry. That being said, KC will have to continue to build depth via the draft. The Temple defense was undoubtedly led by star linebacker Tyler Matakevich, but in front of him was a very good player in his own right; Matt Ioannidis. Ioannidis is a very solid player in all phases and has lined up both at defensive end and inside. Ioannnidis is a big-time high-motor player that routinely pushes the pocket and forces plays in the backfield. I see him as a guy that can develop into a solid outside anchor in the Chiefs' 3-4.

7. OT Clint Van Horn - Marshall (6'5" 310)

The Chiefs depth at tackle, and even guard, has been a slight issue so far and I fully expect Dorsey to try to resolve that this offseason. Van Horn is a guy that has been a solid starter at right tackle for the Herd and he looks like he can take that to the pros. He's not all that athletically gifted and his kickslide isn't always pretty, but its been effective. He's a bull in the run game and can generate movement off the line of scrimmage. Ultimately I see Van Horn as a guy that you move inside to left guard and let him be that island that defensive tackles can't get around, but you have him as an emergency starter at right tackle if the need arises.

Offseason Roster
QB Alex Smith
QB Tyler Bray
QB Aaron Murray
QB Brandon Doughty (Draft Rd 3)

RB Jamaal Charles
RB Charcandrick West (ERFA)
RB Spencer Ware
RB De'Anthony Thomas
RB Knile Davis

FB Anthony Sherman

TE Travis Kelce
TE James O'Shaughnessy
TE Brian Parker
TE Demetrius Harris (ERFA)

WR Jeremy Maclin
WR Rishard Matthews (UFA-MIA)
WR Albert Wilson
WR Chris Conley
WR Keyarris Garrett (Draft Rd 5)
WR Frankie Hammond Jr (ERFA)

OT Eric Fisher
OT Jason Spriggs (Draft Rd 1)
OT Jah Reid (UFA)
OT Clint Van Horn (Draft Rd 7)
OT Curtis Feigt

OG Jeff Allen (UFA)
OG Ben Grubbs
OG Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff
OG Paul Fanaika

OC Mitch Morse
OC Zach Fulton

DL Allen Bailey
DL Jaye Howard (UFA)
DL Nicholas Williams (ERFA)
DL Rakeem Nunez-Roches
DL Matt Ioannidis (Draft Rd 6)
DL Dontari Poe

OLB Justin Houston
OLB Dee Ford
OLB Frank Zombo (UFA)
OLB Dezman Moses (UFA)
OLB Ronald Blair III (Draft Rd 5)

ILB Derrick Johnson (UFA)
ILB Josh Mauga
ILB Justin March
ILB Ramik Wilson
ILB DJ Alexander

CB Marcus Peters
CB Phillip Gaines
CB Steven Nelson
CB Eric Murray (Draft Rd 4)
CB Marcus Cooper

SS Eric Berry (UFA)
SS Daniel Sorensen (ERFA)
SS Jeremy Cash (Draft Rd 2)
FS Ron Parker
FS Husain Abdullah (UFA)


Some of my other draft pick considerations, for your entertainment
2. LB Tyler Matakevich - Temple (6'0" 232)
3. OG Joshua Garnett - Stanford (6'4" 321)
3. WR Braxton Miller - Ohio State (6'1 215)
4. OG Sebastian Tretola - Arkansas (6'5" 334)
4. DL Anthony Zettel - Penn State (6'4" 278)
5. CB Lloyd Carrington - Arizona State (5'11" 194)
6. WR Hunter Sharp - Utah State (5'11 196)
6. CB Morgan Burns - Kansas State (5'11' 195)
7. OG Ted Karras - Illinois (6'4" 310)
7. FS Doug Middleton - Appalachian State (6'0" 210)

Edit:
I forgot to add in that I expect the Chiefs to re-sign as many of their Practice Squad players as possible, I'll add them in next go-around. All will be minimum/futures contracts that won't affect the cap anyhow.

[Sfeihc]

I really like the Rishard Matthews FA signing.

[FRCDFED]

Not a fan of burning a 4th rounder on a QB. There is still more value there at other positions. Almost feels like you picked a QB just to say you did.

[O.city]

Braxton miller would be a great pick

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by FRCDFED

Not a fan of burning a 4th rounder on a QB. There is still more value there at other positions. Almost feels like you picked a QB just to say you did.

A 3rd rounder. On a legitimate prospect. Because the depth behind Alex is scary. Oh, and there is always better value at other positions about 99% of the time.

[FRCDFED]

Originally Posted by kccrow

A 3rd rounder. On a legitimate prospect. Because the depth behind Alex is scary. Oh, and there is always better value at other positions about 99% of the time.

My mistake. A third rounder. I am one that believes our window is closing with Charles, Hali, Johnson, Berry, etc. We know what we have in A. Smith and have acquired Macklin.

IMO...We need to draft more BPA talent to try to take advantage of this window. If we could hit on another pick like Peters and Ford somehow replicates his effort from last week on a continuous basis then we have a chance, albeit small, to make a run next season. Of course, many other aspects of your plan have to occur as well such as keeping key players.

The wheels are about to fall off this bus when we lose Hali, Johnson, Charles, Berry, Smith, etc. It's time to push the accelerator to the floor and see what this thing can do.

[RunKC]

I just reviewed your financial cap movements and I took out Hammond and Matthews.
That's leads to $24.255m money spent. We have $33.498m in projected cap space, so that would give us $9.693m left.

I would cut Grubbs and Fanaika with a June 1st designation to save $2.467m and cut Cooper and Commings (we just did) saving $1.258m.
Then I would restructure Colquitt pushing his money to a bonus for an extra year saving $2m. I don't think anybody would mind having him here through 2018.

That would give us $15.418. That's plenty to give Sean Smith $8m next year.

[DJ's left nut]

I think you're also light on your Howard, Allen and DJ projections.

You essentially gave Howard Bailey's deal and Bailey hadn't had a full season as good as the one Howard is having. I think you're probably going to have to bump each of those figures up by about 20% on Howard.

I dunno....you may not be too far off on Allen, it just feels like he's going to managed 4/$20. The injury history could obviously hold him back but he can point to the resurgence of the line at large once he got involved and I think that would be enough to convince one team to go the extra mile there.

DJ's just played WAY too well. You've got the guy taking a paycut from this season. I figure he's probably looking at 2/$12 with substantially more than $2 million guaranteed. And the Chiefs will pay it; he's been the most important player on our defense this year, IMO.

As for the picks...well I haven't done enough homework yet. I will say that I tend to think most 3rd round QBs are wasted effort thought there are obvious exceptions. In a perfect world where talent matches need, I'd like to see CB/ILB in rounds 1 and 2, OT in 3, slot WR in 4 and another interior lineman in 5.

It also wouldn't hurt to try to find another rotational DL to replace DeVito long-term.

[The Franchise]

Mike Daniels just got a 4 year, $42 million dollar deal from the Packers. Howard will probably be closer to that.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Pestilence

Mike Daniels just got a 4 year, $42 million dollar deal from the Packers. Howard will probably be closer to that.

Hadn't seen that. That's unfortunate. I was thinking in the 4/32 range for Howard but you may be right.

And cutting Grubbs/Colquitt would also save us about $7 million next season.

He's just a punter, fellas. And while he's a good punter, he's not a difference maker. I'll concede that this is probably the best season of his career but if you're team's playing quality football then your punter just shouldn't need to matter as much and damn sure shouldn't be a $4+ million cap hit.

[O.city]

Yeah, they did it with the other kicker, so it makes sense to do it with Colquitt.

They needed him the first 2 years of the regime. They weren't explosive on offense and had to win games playing field position and defense.

As the offense gets more explosive, they need to transition away from him, sadly

[DJ's left nut]

So if you look at the Daniels contract, it's really just a 2 yr deal, IMO.

That said, with the $12 million signing bonus he secured, he's pretty much uncuttable in years 1 and 2. Over those 2 seasons he'll make $5 and $7.5 million in base/roster bonuses. So over the next 2 years he's looking at getting $24 million after the signing bonus, roster bonuses and base salary.

Yeah, that's a hell of a contract for him. Sure wish we could've gotten Howard inked before that one because you have to believe that re-sets the market.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Hadn't seen that. That's unfortunate. I was thinking in the 4/32 range for Howard but you may be right.

And cutting Grubbs/Colquitt would also save us about $7 million next season.

He's just a punter, fellas. And while he's a good punter, he's not a difference maker. I'll concede that this is probably the best season of his career but if you're team's playing quality football then your punter just shouldn't need to matter as much and damn sure shouldn't be a $4+ million cap hit.

I agree. And that would go a lon way to keeping Sean Smith, who will likely cost around $8-9m next season.

[O.city]

Are any of you guys a little afraid of signing a DL who happens to have a career year in a contract year?

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

Are any of you guys a little afraid of signing a DL who happens to have a career year in a contract year?

Maybe a little.

But Howard's a guy that fought his way back from injury/irrelevance to make himself into a damn productive lunchpail kind of player. It's not like he loafed for his first 3 seasons, he was simply injured and buried on the depth chart. I don't think he turned it on for a contract push - I think he got a chance to excel and he made the most of it.

He's the kind of guy you at least make an effort to re-sign if for no other reason than the message it sends the locker room.

Howard's not a silver-spoon player. He's not a guy that's been some sure thing his whole career. He's busted his ass for several seasons to mold himself into a difference maker and you have to think some of that work ethic will remain ingrained.

Signing anyone to a long-term contract is a risk in the NFL but I think Howard is a decent risk.

[O.city]

I don't have a problem signing him, hes been very good and he fits the scheme well. I think some of the Dbacks we need to keep are a little higher priority wise with the way this regime seems to develop DLman.