Mock (1/30)

[Direckshun]

Let's party.

1. The Chiefs franchise Dee Ford.

2. The Chiefs extend WR Tyreek Hill for 4 years, $80m, DL Chris Jones for 5 years, $90m.

3. The Chiefs cut: DE Justin Houston, LB Reggie Ragland, S Eric Berry

4. The Chiefs re-sign to minimal deals: FB Anthony Sherman, WR De'Anthony Thomas, TE Demetrius Harris, C Jordan Devey, DT Justin Hamilton

5. The Chiefs tender: WR Marcus Kemp, ILB Terrance Smith, S Jordan Lucas, K Harrison Butker

6. The Chiefs let walk: RB Charcandrick West, WR Chris Conley, WR Kelvin Benjamin, OG Jeff Allen, C Mitch Morse, DE Allen Bailey, OLB Frank Zombo, CB Steven Nelson, CB Orlando Scandrick

7. The Chiefs sign OT Jake Fisher (Bengals) to 1 year, $4m; OLB Anthony Barr (Vikings) to 3 years, $40m; CB Darqueze Dennard (Bengals) for 2 years, $14m; S Landon Collins (Giants) to 3 years, $36m.

8. The Chiefs are selecting 29th. They are not in the hunt for any compensatory picks.

The Selections:

1. CB DeAndre Baker, Georgia
2. DE Oshane Ximines, Old Dominion
2. DT Demarcus Christmas, Florida State
3. CB Michael Jackson, Miami
5. RB Rodney Anderson, Oklahoma
6. OLB Porter Gustis, USC
7. ILB Jahlani Tavai, Hawaii

Roster:

QB: Mahomes, Henne, Litton
RB: Williams, Williams, Anderson
FB: Sherman

WR: Hill, Watkins, Robinson, Thomas, Dieter, Kemp
TE: Kelce, Harris, Yelder

LT: Fisher, Fisher
LG: Erving, McKenzie
C: Reiter, Devey
RG: Duvarney-Tardif, Wylie
RT: Schwartz, Fisher

DE: Ford, Ximines
DT: Jones, Christmas
DT: Nnadi, Williams, Hamilton
DE: Speaks, Kpassagnon

OLB: O'Daniel, Smith
ILB: Hitchens, Niemann, Tavai
OLB:Barr, Gustis

CB: Fuller, Dennard, Baker, Jackson, Smith
S: Collins, Lucas, Sorensen, Watts, Murray

K: Butker
P: Colquitt
LS: Winchester

[ntexascardfan]

I like the effort.

Releasing Justin Houston is an idea I've mulled back and forth.

I'm not sure I'm a fan of drafting two guys who had injury filled 2018 seasons.

Rodney couldn't stay healthy at OU and I believe, in addition to his ankle, that Gustin also had his knee scoped last year?

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by ntexascardfan

I like the effort.

Releasing Justin Houston is an idea I've mulled back and forth.

I'm not sure I'm a fan of drafting two guys who had injury filled 2018 seasons.

Rodney couldn't stay healthy at OU and I believe, in addition to his ankle, that Gustin also had his knee scoped last year?

The Chiefs are exactly the kind of team that can afford to take a risk on Anderson in the 5th round. They have Williams and Williams who can spell him or take over if needed and if Anderson can give you as many as 150 quality touches, he'll be the best back we have for those 150 touches.

Dude's arguably the most talented back in the entire class, his health history is just ghastly. But if we can take a risk on him with a viable fallback, he's wortwhile.

[ntexascardfan]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The Chiefs are exactly the kind of team that can afford to take a risk on Anderson in the 5th round. They have Williams and Williams who can spell him or take over if needed and if Anderson can give you as many as 150 quality touches, he'll be the best back we have for those 150 touches.

Dude's arguably the most talented back in the entire class, his health history is just ghastly. But if we can take a risk on him with a viable fallback, he's wortwhile.

I think the space I'm in is that we have two more seasons to take advantage of Pat's rookie deal before he's taking up 30 mil/season.

While I want to aggressively pursue talent in the draft, I'd prefer to default on the side of making sure we're maximizing our cheap and controllable picks.

I'd probably feel a lot more comfortable taking a shot on Anderson if we weren't going through a major defensive change this off-season. 2020, I'd probably feel a lot more comfortable taking a risk on a guy who has already had a significant neck and knee injury before he took a single pro snap.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by ntexascardfan

I think the space I'm in is that we have two more seasons to take advantage of Pat's rookie deal before he's taking up 30 mil/season.

While I want to aggressively pursue talent in the draft, I'd prefer to default on the side of making sure we're maximizing our cheap and controllable picks.

I'd probably feel a lot more comfortable taking a shot on Anderson if we weren't going through a major defensive change this off-season. 2020, I'd probably feel a lot more comfortable taking a risk on a guy who has already had a significant neck and knee injury before he took a single pro snap.

It's a 5th round pick.

I'm not saying take him in the 3rd (nor is Direkshun). A 5th round pick is likely to yield you a special teamer if you're lucky. Alternatively, if you can spin the wheel and get a possible game-changing back for even 6-8 games/season or just as a change of pace guy, that's a hell of a good use of a 5th round pick.

That's why I still don't understand not taking Michael Dickson from UT. "NOOOO!!!! DON'T DRAFT PUNTERS!!!!" but damn man, that guy is an absolute weapon and if you can get that in the 5th, save some significant cap on your present punter and then, if even only 2 or 3 times ALL SEASON flip the field on a team, that's a fine use of a 5th and more than most clubs will get out of theirs.

I get it, sometimes your 5th becomes Antonio Brown but you can't let the exceptions dictate the rules. You have to assume that most 5th rounders are going to be closer to Ukeme Eligwe or Kevin Hogan (or Sanders Commings or or DeQuan Menzie or Aaron Murray or on and on and on...) than they are Tyreek Hill.

Generally speaking a GOOD 5th round pick is going to be someone like DJ Alexander who was pretty much a shitty linebacker but a valuable STer. Okay...how's a good STs gunner more valuable than Anderson in a part-time role?

I'd take the gamble. Anderson is actually closer to the Hill pick than anything else - a seriously high risk gamble that could blow up and amount to nothing, but if it its, it's a homerun. That's a hell of a lot better use than throwing it at a guy who you know has the ceiling of a rotational DL or break glass in case of emergency sort of DB.

[Chargem]

I'm very suspicious about the cap in this one, unless you're structuring new contracts to absolutely balloon in 2020 and beyond.

You pretty much stand pat on offense though which is kind of disappointing, WR outside of Hill and Watkins is very poor quality and you bring back stone hands Harris.

[Why Not?]

Originally Posted by Chargem

I'm very suspicious about the cap in this one, unless you're structuring new contracts to absolutely balloon in 2020 and beyond.

You pretty much stand pat on offense though which is kind of disappointing, WR outside of Hill and Watkins is very poor quality and you bring back stone hands Harris.

Robinson has more than shown he can be a 3. As for depth if(when)Watkins gets hurt, if Rodgers can make some of the JAGs he’s played with look like studs, Mahomes could certainly do that with Kemp and Gehrig

[Chargem]

Originally Posted by Why Not?

Robinson has more than shown he can be a 3. As for depth if(when)Watkins gets hurt, if Rodgers can make some of the JAGs he’s played with look like studs, Mahomes could certainly do that with Kemp and Gehrig

Especially if you consider that Watkins could be cut after the 2nd year of his deal, I think that's a little short sighted. Mahomes is amazing but you don't just give him garbage and assume he's going to make lemonade out of it.

The offense could genuinely use a decent 2nd TE and a slot receiver, at bare minimum. Someone from the draft who could maybe replace Watkins the following year would be a bonus.

[Why Not?]

Originally Posted by Chargem

Especially if you consider that Watkins could be cut after the 2nd year of his deal, I think that's a little short sighted. Mahomes is amazing but you don't just give him garbage and assume he's going to make lemonade out of it.

The offense could genuinely use a decent 2nd TE and a slot receiver, at bare minimum. Someone from the draft who could maybe replace Watkins the following year would be a bonus.

Only so many draft picks. Defense needs to be fixed now. A WR can be drafted next year. First several picks have to go to D. So you’re(not you, personally)banking on a fifth or sixth round guy and at that point, I’ll take Kemp or Dieter or even Pringle for 2019.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by Why Not?

Only so many draft picks. Defense needs to be fixed now. A WR can be drafted next year. First several picks have to go to D. So you’re(not you, personally)banking on a fifth or sixth round guy and at that point, I’ll take Kemp or Dieter or even Pringle for 2019.

I think we need one more year of heavy D draft. Next year I think you go back to balanced, and would be looking for O'linemen and WR's.

[Direckshun]

My theory is that releasing the two big defensive contract liabilities creates a lot of cap space.

I also believe the Chiefs will move on from Watkins and another big contract or three to make room for Mahomes.

[Chargem]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

My theory is that releasing the two big defensive contract liabilities creates a lot of cap space.

I also believe the Chiefs will move on from Watkins and another big contract or three to make room for Mahomes.

I think it creates $24m ish, assuming Berry post June and Houston pre June, taking the available cap to $56m.

But then the franchise of Ford is probably $16m, and Barr Dennard and Collins is like $30m ish depending how you structure, so you're at $10m cap space before you resign any of your minimal guys, the tenders, Fisher for $4m or the draft class.

Oh, and that's assuming that the extension of Jones and Hill have zero impact on 2019, which is unlikely. The only way this fits is if you do a Sammy Watkins like structure on the first year on your 2019 FA signings and that just creates a nightmare in 2020.

[bowener]

Why are people cutting Houston in their mocks on this board? You either restructure his contract, leave it be, or trade him. Those are the options. He is somebody the team should keep. If you honestly believe you couldn't get more than a 3rd for Houston, then you don't watch or understand football. His contract won't scare anybody away nor his age. On the field he is phenomenal at doing his job. It just so happens Sutton asked him to do shit that took him away from what he is best at, which is getting to the QB. Put him at DE, put a decent secondary behind him, and watch him and Jones **** up teams.

[Chargem]

Originally Posted by bowener

Why are people cutting Houston in their mocks on this board? You either restructure his contract, leave it be, or trade him. Those are the options. He is somebody the team should keep. If you honestly believe you couldn't get more than a 3rd for Houston, then you don't watch or understand football. His contract won't scare anybody away nor his age. On the field he is phenomenal at doing his job. It just so happens Sutton asked him to do shit that took him away from what he is best at, which is getting to the QB. Put him at DE, put a decent secondary behind him, and watch him and Jones **** up teams.

If I remember correctly you pretty much can't trade him or it accelerates his signing bonus into the current year and you take a big cap hit. I'm not a contract/cap expert, so that might be wrong but I think others have said it and it explains the no trading in people's mocks.

[tmax63]

Originally Posted by bowener

Why are people cutting Houston in their mocks on this board? You either restructure his contract, leave it be, or trade him. Those are the options. He is somebody the team should keep. If you honestly believe you couldn't get more than a 3rd for Houston, then you don't watch or understand football. His contract won't scare anybody away nor his age. On the field he is phenomenal at doing his job. It just so happens Sutton asked him to do shit that took him away from what he is best at, which is getting to the QB. Put him at DE, put a decent secondary behind him, and watch him and Jones **** up teams.

Houston's big problem is he hasn't been healthy and produced since he signed his contract. He had 22 sacks the year before his contract and about 30 total in all the years since. He's not worth the 21M cap hit. Not when you get similar production for 1/3 of the money and can use the rest to sign a stud FA CB or safety to dramatically improve this defense.