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Old 12-18-2018, 03:25 PM  
Lex Luthor Lex Luthor is offline
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Stock market on pace for worst December since Great Depression

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The stock market is on pace for its worst December since the Great Depression

Two benchmark U.S. stock indexes are careening toward a historically bad December.

Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 are on pace for their worst December performance since 1931, when stocks were battered during the Great Depression. The Dow and S&P 500 closed Monday down 7.6 percent and 7.8 percent this month, respectively.

December is typically a very positive month for markets. The Dow has only fallen during 25 Decembers going back to 1931.

The S&P 500 averages a 1.6 percent gain for December, making it typically the best month for the market, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

While the S&P 500 began dissemination in 1950, the performance data was backtested through 1928. It’s worth noting that historically, the second half of December tends to see gains.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/17/wors...r&par=sharebar



"The worst December since the Great Depression". "Market down over 1,000 points since the GOP tax plan was passed".

Wow. Are the Trump supporters getting tired of all this winning yet?

To be fair, you can't really blame the plunging Dow on the tax cut. Although it can be argued that adding $2 Trillion to the debt can't be good for the stock market, most analysts agree that it's more likely that Trump's idiotic trade war is the cause.

The recent performance of the Dow does show us two things:
  1. Trump is an idiot. Trade wars are NOT good, and they are NOT easy to win.
  2. The tax cut is not the magic cure-all that the GOP believes it to be. All it did was add $2 Trillion to the debt.

I'm just glad I pulled my 401-K funds OUT of the stock market when I did. I'm not putting them back in until after Trump leaves office. Of course, the way things are looking, that will probably be Q2 of 2019.
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Old 12-21-2018, 01:15 PM   #121
EmojiMania EmojiMania is offline
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Originally Posted by HonestChieffan View Post
Dow jumps 250 points
Oops, down 450 since HCF's post here

lol
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Old 12-21-2018, 01:29 PM   #122
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If you guys think the market will tank further, just cash out your stocks and change it to money market fund in your 401K. Wait till the market bottom out, then buy the stocks back. You will make it out like a bandit.
I stay in the money market year round because I have no risk tolerance. And normally my daily yield is within a cent or two of being the same. But something happened yesterday. Yesterday, my daily gain more than doubled. I have never had that happen (well at least that I caught anyways). I'm curious if it's a freak thing or if something is going on to make the money markets yield way higher than normal?

I'm gonna check it again later today after the markets close to see if it was a freak deal or what.
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Old 12-21-2018, 03:45 PM   #123
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Originally Posted by DayeMania View Post
Oops, down 450 since HCF's post here

lol
Sorry, meant that it's down 650 points since HCF's post

TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP
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Old 12-21-2018, 04:42 PM   #124
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Originally Posted by DayeMania View Post
Sorry, meant that it's down 650 points since HCF's post

TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP
I take it that some of your favorite sports are football, baseball, and rooting against Americans?

...of course baseball is just an assumption on my part so my apologies if that is incorrect.
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Old 12-21-2018, 05:23 PM   #125
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Originally Posted by Lex Luthor View Post
Actually, what they're saying is that the Fed raising interest rates is one of many factors. Other factors include concerns about the potential government shutdown, concerns about the government's ability to get anything done in 2019, and concerns about the trade war, in addition to the other things listed in the article I posted.

But you go on being you.
Like I said, you're a ****ing idiot. Shutdowns rarely if ever effect the market. Gridlock rarely effects the market. Your article is idiotic along with the person who posted it in the OP.
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All kinds of people vote. Not enough of those people think highly enough of Trump to make him President but all kinds of people vote.
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So, if they were polling better than Trump and the primary goal was to prevent Hillary from becoming POTUS, perhaps it would have been a better strategic decision to nominate someone who actually had a chance of beating her and preventing that than nominating Donald Trump.
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Old 12-21-2018, 05:27 PM   #126
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HonestChieffan View Post
I have not heard the term death spiral. I have pretty solid reasons to pay attention to what is being said. I met with my advisor yesterday actually.

What we do hear is that the Fed went too far in the eyes of the market. The market wanted less raises in future 2019/2020....they heard today that 2019 is not a locked in 2 raises....so that should ease the irrationality of what we are seeing.

We also hear the word correction...we have been expecting a correction since spring...lots of folks saw valuations of some stocks as out of line and a correction would have to get things back into a more rational state.

There is no death spiral. Unless you were way over positioned in a sector or stock that has been bloodied, then for those who lack good planning, diversification and reasonable expectations, it must hurt to beat hell. But its not a death spiral.

In addition to all the fed stuff, Trump has his finger/mouth involved across the board by being unpredictable and acting with no regard for the impact of his actions. He doesnt care we have to accept that at this point, his behavior will not change. With the good stuff he has made happen we get Donald and Donald is a bull in a china shop who is unmanageable by his staff. That sends traders into nervous tremors not knowing what he will do or say next.
Death spiral is a figure of speech. It's what you have when everything is going down, which is what is happening at the moment. While you are and your "advisor" talk about corrections, everyone paying attention knows there are bear markets all over and the Nasdaq officially entered one today. We have had rolling bear markets over the last month. You also have a ton of tax loss selling going on as well.

You can can put in all the crap about Trump all you want but outside of the trade issues, this is all Fed.

The SP500 is likely headed to 2100-2200 range before we see some solid bottoming action.
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All kinds of people vote. Not enough of those people think highly enough of Trump to make him President but all kinds of people vote.
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So, if they were polling better than Trump and the primary goal was to prevent Hillary from becoming POTUS, perhaps it would have been a better strategic decision to nominate someone who actually had a chance of beating her and preventing that than nominating Donald Trump.
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Old 12-21-2018, 05:39 PM   #127
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Death spiral is a figure of speech. It's what you have when everything is going down, which is what is happening at the moment. While you are and your "advisor" talk about corrections, everyone paying attention knows there are bear markets all over and the Nasdaq officially entered one today. We have had rolling bear markets over the last month. You also have a ton of tax loss selling going on as well.

You can can put in all the crap about Trump all you want but outside of the trade issues, this is all Fed.

The SP500 is likely headed to 2100-2200 range before we see some solid bottoming action.
If you are correct all the gains of the last two years Dec 16 are going to be wiped out..Are you shorting with everything you have?
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Old 12-21-2018, 05:45 PM   #128
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Like I said, you're a ****ing idiot. Shutdowns rarely if ever effect the market. Gridlock rarely effects the market. Your article is idiotic along with the person who posted it in the OP.
Are you an arrogant prick in real life?
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Old 12-21-2018, 05:47 PM   #129
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If you are correct all the gains of the last two years Dec 16 are going to be wiped out..Are you shorting with everything you have?
Shorting? No. Heavily reducing my exposure to stocks and bonds? Yes. In fact, I have been just about 100% out of bonds for the last 10 months. If I wanted to be aggressive I would short but I don't get into that much like I used too. I did write some covered calls but they just helped offset losses some. Plus, unlike the last 10 years, you can actually make 2%-3% on your cash while you wait to get back in.
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All kinds of people vote. Not enough of those people think highly enough of Trump to make him President but all kinds of people vote.
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So, if they were polling better than Trump and the primary goal was to prevent Hillary from becoming POTUS, perhaps it would have been a better strategic decision to nominate someone who actually had a chance of beating her and preventing that than nominating Donald Trump.
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Old 12-21-2018, 05:47 PM   #130
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Originally Posted by Lex Luthor View Post
Are you an arrogant prick in real life?
If my pointing out that you are clueless of how the markets work makes me an arrogant prick then, yes, I am.
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All kinds of people vote. Not enough of those people think highly enough of Trump to make him President but all kinds of people vote.
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So, if they were polling better than Trump and the primary goal was to prevent Hillary from becoming POTUS, perhaps it would have been a better strategic decision to nominate someone who actually had a chance of beating her and preventing that than nominating Donald Trump.
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Old 12-21-2018, 05:57 PM   #131
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Originally Posted by HonestChieffan View Post
If you are correct all the gains of the last two years Dec 16 are going to be wiped out..Are you shorting with everything you have?
And to add, we have already retrace 50% of the rally from the lows of Jan 2016. I see no reason it will stop now giving the next target of a 62% retracement to around 2250. But if you look at the support levels around there you are probably more around the 2100-2200 range. I would say we are in wave 3 of a 5 wave movement and the 3rd wave is typically the strongest. We will probably see some sort of a bounce that will get sold into by people who wish they would have sold 10% ago which will take us back down and through the lows we set today thus giving us the 5th wave and the "flush" we will need to get things headed back upwards.

The Fed is key in all of this. If they come out of the gate raising rates then I think my analysis will be realized sooner rather than later. If they pause then it may not end up being quite as bad as I am forecasting.
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All kinds of people vote. Not enough of those people think highly enough of Trump to make him President but all kinds of people vote.
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So, if they were polling better than Trump and the primary goal was to prevent Hillary from becoming POTUS, perhaps it would have been a better strategic decision to nominate someone who actually had a chance of beating her and preventing that than nominating Donald Trump.
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Old 12-21-2018, 06:03 PM   #132
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Here's a chart you need to pay close attention too...
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Originally Posted by |Zach| View Post
All kinds of people vote. Not enough of those people think highly enough of Trump to make him President but all kinds of people vote.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger View Post
So, if they were polling better than Trump and the primary goal was to prevent Hillary from becoming POTUS, perhaps it would have been a better strategic decision to nominate someone who actually had a chance of beating her and preventing that than nominating Donald Trump.
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Old 12-21-2018, 06:18 PM   #133
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Old 12-21-2018, 06:36 PM   #134
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Thanks Obama.
Nah, this ain't on Obama. Obama really didn't do ahit to **** with the market one way or the other. As with most everything g else he did, it was a lot of talk and no action. The Fed propped up the market with QE and he was lucky enough to be President at the time. As with most market busts, the Fed is right in the middle of it all. Greenspan did this back in 99-00 and now Powell is doing the same.

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All kinds of people vote. Not enough of those people think highly enough of Trump to make him President but all kinds of people vote.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger View Post
So, if they were polling better than Trump and the primary goal was to prevent Hillary from becoming POTUS, perhaps it would have been a better strategic decision to nominate someone who actually had a chance of beating her and preventing that than nominating Donald Trump.
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Old 12-21-2018, 06:49 PM   #135
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Like I said, you're a ****ing idiot. Shutdowns rarely if ever effect the market. Gridlock rarely effects the market. Your article is idiotic along with the person who posted it in the OP.
How often does a rate increase or a rate of 2.5 factor heavily into the market?
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