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Old 12-18-2018, 03:25 PM  
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Stock market on pace for worst December since Great Depression

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The stock market is on pace for its worst December since the Great Depression

Two benchmark U.S. stock indexes are careening toward a historically bad December.

Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 are on pace for their worst December performance since 1931, when stocks were battered during the Great Depression. The Dow and S&P 500 closed Monday down 7.6 percent and 7.8 percent this month, respectively.

December is typically a very positive month for markets. The Dow has only fallen during 25 Decembers going back to 1931.

The S&P 500 averages a 1.6 percent gain for December, making it typically the best month for the market, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

While the S&P 500 began dissemination in 1950, the performance data was backtested through 1928. It’s worth noting that historically, the second half of December tends to see gains.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/17/wors...r&par=sharebar



"The worst December since the Great Depression". "Market down over 1,000 points since the GOP tax plan was passed".

Wow. Are the Trump supporters getting tired of all this winning yet?

To be fair, you can't really blame the plunging Dow on the tax cut. Although it can be argued that adding $2 Trillion to the debt can't be good for the stock market, most analysts agree that it's more likely that Trump's idiotic trade war is the cause.

The recent performance of the Dow does show us two things:
  1. Trump is an idiot. Trade wars are NOT good, and they are NOT easy to win.
  2. The tax cut is not the magic cure-all that the GOP believes it to be. All it did was add $2 Trillion to the debt.

I'm just glad I pulled my 401-K funds OUT of the stock market when I did. I'm not putting them back in until after Trump leaves office. Of course, the way things are looking, that will probably be Q2 of 2019.
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Old 12-19-2018, 06:40 PM   #61
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FACTS

- The DOW has fallen 3,420 points since Sept. 17, 2018. The market is tanking.
- The DOW increased approximately 41% in Obama’s first 698 days in office.
- The DOW increased approximately 16.5% in Trump’s first 698 days in office.
- In Trump's first 19 months in office, the country added 3.58 million jobs.
- In Obama's last 19 months in office the country added 3.96 million jobs.

FACTS MATTER, except to Trump supporters. Trump supporters HATE facts. FACTS contradict what the Orange Buffoon tells them. That's why Trump supporters hate FACTS so much. The FACTS show that all Trump did was continue the economic boom that began under Obama.

Trump tells his supporters that he has achieved an economic turnaround of historic proportions, and his supporters lap it up like servile puppy dogs.

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Old 12-19-2018, 07:08 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by Lex Luthor View Post
Orange Buffoon
cliff note.

same as it ever was.
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Old 12-19-2018, 07:52 PM   #63
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Lex is right.

Look at the market as an investment over the last 2 years, 5 years, 10 years. Pretty clear we have arrived at Armageddon. This is the end times.

Anyone have access to a DJIA chart? Its the depression all over again!

Deflation, food lines, the dust bowl. Think of the Children!!!

Whatever you had in 2012 is gone. GONE

Woe is me.
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Old 12-19-2018, 08:01 PM   #64
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The Fed is really ass ****ing us at the moment. Yes, they needed to raise rates. No, they didn't need to raise rates this far, this fast. Powell is going to choke off the economy right when people were really starting to feel safe about their financial futures for the first time in 10+ years.

This is the bad part of QE. We now have QT (Quantitative Tightening). All the shit assets the Fed purchased to prop up the stock market for 10 years are now being rolled off the balance sheet. On top of that the Fed is raising rates so it's a 1-2 punch to the economy.

Powell is no different than any other Fed-Head. Greenspan did similar when he killed the economy in 2000. Bernanke and Yellen were both dolts that championed QE and carried it far too long. Yellen should have started raising rates sooner than she did. Powell is adding the retardedness by doing what Yellen should have done and trying to do it as if he has to make up for lost time.

Inflation is not that bad. Yellen raised rates twice when she should probably have raised them 4 times. Powell on the other hand has now raised I believe 8 times in a short two years. And the data is not there to support the rate at which he is raising.
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All kinds of people vote. Not enough of those people think highly enough of Trump to make him President but all kinds of people vote.
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So, if they were polling better than Trump and the primary goal was to prevent Hillary from becoming POTUS, perhaps it would have been a better strategic decision to nominate someone who actually had a chance of beating her and preventing that than nominating Donald Trump.
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Old 12-19-2018, 08:04 PM   #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lex Luthor View Post
FACTS

- The DOW has fallen 3,420 points since Sept. 17, 2018. The market is tanking.
- The DOW increased approximately 41% in Obama’s first 698 days in office.
- The DOW increased approximately 16.5% in Trump’s first 698 days in office.
- In Trump's first 19 months in office, the country added 3.58 million jobs.
- In Obama's last 19 months in office the country added 3.96 million jobs.

FACTS MATTER, except to Trump supporters. Trump supporters HATE facts. FACTS contradict what the Orange Buffoon tells them. That's why Trump supporters hate FACTS so much. The FACTS show that all Trump did was continue the economic boom that began under Obama.

Trump tells his supporters that he has achieved an economic turnaround of historic proportions, and his supporters lap it up like servile puppy dogs.

Fact: Obama had the Yellen-Put
Fact: Trump doesn't

That had more to do with Obama's perceived success than anything Obama did.
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All kinds of people vote. Not enough of those people think highly enough of Trump to make him President but all kinds of people vote.
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So, if they were polling better than Trump and the primary goal was to prevent Hillary from becoming POTUS, perhaps it would have been a better strategic decision to nominate someone who actually had a chance of beating her and preventing that than nominating Donald Trump.
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Old 12-19-2018, 08:44 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
The Fed is really ass ****ing us at the moment. Yes, they needed to raise rates. No, they didn't need to raise rates this far, this fast. Powell is going to choke off the economy right when people were really starting to feel safe about their financial futures for the first time in 10+ years.

This is the bad part of QE. We now have QT (Quantitative Tightening). All the shit assets the Fed purchased to prop up the stock market for 10 years are now being rolled off the balance sheet. On top of that the Fed is raising rates so it's a 1-2 punch to the economy.

Powell is no different than any other Fed-Head. Greenspan did similar when he killed the economy in 2000. Bernanke and Yellen were both dolts that championed QE and carried it far too long. Yellen should have started raising rates sooner than she did. Powell is adding the retardedness by doing what Yellen should have done and trying to do it as if he has to make up for lost time.

Inflation is not that bad. Yellen raised rates twice when she should probably have raised them 4 times. Powell on the other hand has now raised I believe 8 times in a short two years. And the data is not there to support the rate at which he is raising.
Some yes and some no here. Really is on the Fed and not Trump here. Although, I think interest rates have been way low for too long.

Usually the market won't start dumping until the end of interest rates hikes but there are other uncertainties now. I would like to see the raise go in at 0.25 percent in early 2019 again because I think it is too late to save the market, that a crash is inevitable, that the sooner it happens the sooner we can start getting over it. I guess for selfish but maybe realistic expectations too.
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Old 12-19-2018, 08:47 PM   #67
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Some yes and some no here. Really is on the Fed and not Trump here. Although, I think interest rates have been way low for too long.
Not too low for too long.

Rates needed to go up much sooner and stay flat for longer periods.
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Old 12-19-2018, 08:51 PM   #68
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Inflation is not that bad. Yellen raised rates twice when she should probably have raised them 4 times. Powell on the other hand has now raised I believe 8 times in a short two years. And the data is not there to support the rate at which he is raising.
I find all of this difficult to understand. Yellen was super dovish and given a lack of inflation chose to pull back on even proposed rate increases. If inflation isn't/wasn't an issue years later that seems like the right choice.

Quote:
Yellen disputed this mechanistic view. Citing the fact that millions of people had ceased looking for jobs during and after the Great Recession of 2007-2009, she argued that the headline rate of unemployment was an inadequate measure of the state of the labor market, and that other metrics, such as the labor-force-participation rate, also needed to be taken into account.

More controversially, she also argued that there could be important benefits to the Fed running a “high-pressure economy,” in which the unemployment rate was kept low and new hires were hard to find. In such a situation, Yellen speculated, in a 2016 speech, workers who had dropped out of the labor force could be drawn back in, firms could be incentivized to make capital investments, over-all demand in the economy could be higher, and wages and productivity growth—which were languishing badly—could pick up.
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Fact: Obama had the Yellen-Put
Fact: Trump doesn't

That had more to do with Obama's perceived success than anything Obama did.
Obama's perceived success had a lot to do with starting at the bottom. He had the Yellen-put because he put her in place. In one of his better moments, in my mind, Trump seemingly considered her highly but chose Powell. This decision has not gone well to this point
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Old 12-19-2018, 09:18 PM   #69
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The market lives and breathes over reaction both ways. They market knew the fed was going up today so thats no surprise....The fed announced the plan will be possible 2 bumps in 2019 and one in 2020.

If inflation stays low and the economy is rolling along steady, they will likely not hit 2 next year...in which case there will be days of celebration that offsets all this over reaction to a 1/4 % rate increase.

Never forget, anything a politician says about the economy is said to sell a position or garner votes or make an opponent look bad. Politicians are not a good source of market or economic information

Quite the opposite, the fed will issue boring statements that are fodder for so called experts and media economists (not the brightest group) but the Fed will be quite non political and dusty and dry and very "economist" analytical and far from the emotional outbursts of politicians...good data but not exciting and sexy

Media economists are a sad lot anymore. 24/7 media cycle and hundreds of outlets have made the average economics/market reporter about a C+ sophomore Econ 201 student who finished with an English degree.

If Trump would shut up, stop lashing out at the fed, recognize his dragging out for ****ing ever his spat with China is the real stumbling block, this economy has serious strength. It just has the weight of the ego and his demonstrated inability to grasp the idea of consistency and predictability as a leadership positive.
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Old 12-19-2018, 09:32 PM   #70
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Can anyone explain to me why we need to pay intrest on our own money?
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Old 12-19-2018, 11:32 PM   #71
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The market isn't tanking because of the Fed doing its job. The market is tanking because of the global instability, uncertainty and fear that is caused by having a moron in the White House who thinks "trade wars are good and easy to win".



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I guess it's a good thing you buried all your money in a coffee can in the back yard.
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Old 12-19-2018, 11:49 PM   #72
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Obama's perceived success had a lot to do with starting at the bottom. He had the Yellen-put because he put her in place. In one of his better moments, in my mind, Trump seemingly considered her highly but chose Powell. This decision has not gone well to this point
Trump might have renominated Yellen for Fed chair if she wasn’t so... short, report says
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Old 12-20-2018, 02:20 AM   #73
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Can anyone explain to me why we need to pay intrest on our own money?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discount_window
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Old 12-20-2018, 08:33 AM   #74
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lewdog View Post
Some yes and some no here. Really is on the Fed and not Trump here. Although, I think interest rates have been way low for too long.

Usually the market won't start dumping until the end of interest rates hikes but there are other uncertainties now. I would like to see the raise go in at 0.25 percent in early 2019 again because I think it is too late to save the market, that a crash is inevitable, that the sooner it happens the sooner we can start getting over it. I guess for selfish but maybe realistic expectations too.
There is no reason to raise rates any more at this time. There isn't any data to support another rate hike. The Fed is raising so ****ing fast they aren't giving the raises they've already done a chance to work.
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All kinds of people vote. Not enough of those people think highly enough of Trump to make him President but all kinds of people vote.
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So, if they were polling better than Trump and the primary goal was to prevent Hillary from becoming POTUS, perhaps it would have been a better strategic decision to nominate someone who actually had a chance of beating her and preventing that than nominating Donald Trump.
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Old 12-20-2018, 08:36 AM   #75
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Originally Posted by ChiliConCarnage View Post
I find all of this difficult to understand. Yellen was super dovish and given a lack of inflation chose to pull back on even proposed rate increases. If inflation isn't/wasn't an issue years later that seems like the right choice.





Obama's perceived success had a lot to do with starting at the bottom. He had the Yellen-put because he put her in place. In one of his better moments, in my mind, Trump seemingly considered her highly but chose Powell. This decision has not gone well to this point
I agree with most of this. Yellen was too dovish for too long. QE took us out of normalcy. She should have begun the move back to normal earlier.

And I agree, Obama came in at the bottom. There wasn't really anywhere else to go but up and if it weren't for the Fed propping up the market, it probably wouldn't have gone up much as there was little to any fiscal stimulus at all from the government under Obama.
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All kinds of people vote. Not enough of those people think highly enough of Trump to make him President but all kinds of people vote.
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So, if they were polling better than Trump and the primary goal was to prevent Hillary from becoming POTUS, perhaps it would have been a better strategic decision to nominate someone who actually had a chance of beating her and preventing that than nominating Donald Trump.
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