Chiefs DVOA rankings, 2019 - Page 2

Hammock Parties · 10-23-2019, 07:44 PM

DVOA says we are a hell of a lot better than most of you.

Week 7

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dv...7-dvoa-ratings

Total DVOA

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3rd

Offensive DVOA

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2nd

Defensive DVOA

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13th

Hammock Parties · 10-24-2019, 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amnorix

So DVOA matters and is a worthwhile stat for the Chiefs, but a worthless stat for the Patriots? Ok.

See my prior post. The high risk/high reward approach the Pats have used so far have resulted in an absurdly successful defense, but is likely not sustainable against very good offenses.

There is no risk against shit-tier QBs.

When you start playing NFL teams you will regret this fraudulent start. Your team is not battle tested.

Amnorix · 10-24-2019, 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by B_Ambuehl

People act like what Belichik is doing this year with the heavy blitzes and man coverage is new. They started it last year towards the end of the season. They did it heavily against Rapistburger in the Pitt game and barely lost. Then they pounded San Diego with it in the divisional round and pounded the chiefs in the first half of AFCC. The 2nd half of that AFCC is a recipe how to counter it.

IMO it's moreso to make up for the pass rush deficiencies than it is anything else. In a base 4 man rush Belichik probably has bottom 5 pass rush personnel, and it's been that way most of the time since Chandler Jones left. But he messes with pressures and is consistently able to get rush production by creating free runs at the QB & matchups: DE against TE, LB against RB. The "amoeba" looks prevent the QB & Oline from getting clean reads & the secondary forces the QB to hold the ball. It's definitely a synergy where the sum is way way greater than the individual parts. Most of that front 7 are slapdick castoffs from other teams, and they were castoffs for a reason.

Your first paragraph, that this started last year, is accurate.

That the Patriots front 7 is a bunch of slapdicks isn't.

Jaime Collins -- 1st round pick
Donta Hightower -- 1st round pick, and incredibly clutch player
Kyle Van Noy - 2nd round pick
Danny Shelton - 1st round pick

Nobody is pretending any of these guys is Khalil Mack, but Belichick hasn't had a guy like that in the front 7 since Lawrence Taylor so...

Amnorix · 10-24-2019, 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

There is no risk against shit-tier QBs.

When you start playing NFL teams you will regret this fraudulent start. Your team is not battle tested.

You mean other than the guys who have multiple Super Bowl rings, I'm assuming...

Mecca · 10-24-2019, 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amnorix

Your first paragraph, that this started last year, is accurate.

That the Patriots front 7 is a bunch of slapdicks isn't.

Jaime Collins -- 1st round pick
Donta Hightower -- 1st round pick, and incredibly clutch player
Kyle Van Noy - 2nd round pick
Danny Shelton - 1st round pick

Nobody is pretending any of these guys is Khalil Mack, but Belichick hasn't had a guy like that in the front 7 since Lawrence Taylor so...

To cherry pick you here

Collins was not a 1st round pick, pick 52.

Giant Octopodes · 10-24-2019, 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

There is no risk against shit-tier QBs.

When you start playing NFL teams you will regret this fraudulent start. Your team is not battle tested.

Out of curiosity, if the previous Pats opponents are not NFL teams, what are they? I think you mean "playoff contenders" not NFL teams.

As far as what you consider to be legitimate opponents, what qualifies? Do the Ravens? If they hold the Ravens to under 10, will that be a sign they're legit, or since Lamar Jackson is a young QB (whom BB always feasts on), would that not count either? If not them, then who?

Edit:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amnorix

Your first paragraph, that this started last year, is accurate.

That the Patriots front 7 is a bunch of slapdicks isn't.

Jaime Collins -- 1st round pick
Donta Hightower -- 1st round pick, and incredibly clutch player
Kyle Van Noy - 2nd round pick
Danny Shelton - 1st round pick

Nobody is pretending any of these guys is Khalil Mack, but Belichick hasn't had a guy like that in the front 7 since Lawrence Taylor so...

Also though I know folks here hate stats which indicate the Patriots are good, and consider them all lies, but PFF ratings for those guys:
Jamie Collins - 3rd best at his position
Kyle Van Noy - 5th best at his position
Dont'a Hightower - 16th best at his position

And in the secondary
Jonathan Jones - 6th best at his position
Jason McCourty - 7th best at his position
Devin McCourty - 7th best at his position

The idea these guys are a bunch of scrubs who are getting lucky is just patently untrue. The fact that they're not household names has more to do with the media's constant insistence that no one on the Patriots are any good other than Brady than it does actual measurable fact. The defense for the Patriots is Full of guys who, based on production and measurable performance should be making all pro this year.

B_Ambuehl · 10-24-2019, 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amnorix

Your first paragraph, that this started last year, is accurate.

That the Patriots front 7 is a bunch of slapdicks isn't.

Jaime Collins -- 1st round pick
Donta Hightower -- 1st round pick, and incredibly clutch player
Kyle Van Noy - 2nd round pick
Danny Shelton - 1st round pick

Nobody is pretending any of these guys is Khalil Mack, but Belichick hasn't had a guy like that in the front 7 since Lawrence Taylor so...

And 3 of those guys were run out of town by other teams for poor play.

Go thru every NFL roster and every NFL front 7 and see how many teams have only ONE homegrown first round pick in their entire front 7.

Pasta Little Brioni · 10-24-2019, 10:42 AM

Bunch of no name pieces of shit on any other team. But NE gets by with D holding

B_Ambuehl · 10-24-2019, 12:25 PM

They play very well within the scheme. No argument there.

But if anyone in the front 7 other than Hightower were to be put on IR tomorrow you'd see absolutely zero drop-off.

It's what I was trying to tell people last year talking about the guys in the Chiefs front 7. Make it about the scheme and longevity with regard to salary cap and not so much about highlight reel players.

What Belichik has done is mastered the salary cap from an analytics perspective defensively.

Even if your front 7 is as talented as the chicago bears you still need guys that can cover. At some point it becomes cost prohibitive and you end up with a very uneven roster.

Belichik puts big run stoppers at every position in the front 7, and big run stoppers can be found cheap. There's really not a single freaky athlete anywhere in that front but they are all difficult to move. The secondary is actually very talented though and most players would start for any team.

So you defend the run via personnel, defend the pass via having good coverage guys, and get pressure via scheme & coverage. Add it all up and it's a very high value defense.

jerryaldini · 10-24-2019, 02:01 PM

Another thread derailed on Pats Planet.

ChiefBlueCFC · 10-24-2019, 02:03 PM

Can someone point me to what DVOA is? I read about it briefly once and I can't remember exactly what it is and how its calculated.

jerryaldini · 10-24-2019, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefBlueCFC

Can someone point me to what DVOA is? I read about it briefly once and I can't remember exactly what it is and how its calculated.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

ChiefBlueCFC · 10-24-2019, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jerryaldini

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

Preeeesshhhiate it

Megatron96 · 10-24-2019, 04:20 PM

Thanks for the OP; lots of info to absorb.

The Chiefs defense has played better than what I thought, and I have been optimistic about our defense from day one. And against some pretty good offenses. For instance, the Ravens offense, which many of us maligned early in the season, is currently 2nd in the NFL (pts/gm). Further, if you look at the Chiefs schedule, they have only played one offense ranked in the bottom tier for pts/gm; the Broncos.

Every other offense that the Chiefs have played against have been in the top 18. In fact, four of the seven teams the Chiefs have played are ranked in the top 13 offenses (pts/gam).

Even in the two games the Chiefs lost, the defense played fairly well overall.

In the Colts game (15th-best offense, 23.8pts/gm), the Chiefs defense held them below their season average by almost 5 points, and more importantly, held them to a single TD and four field goals. Brissett only threw for 151 yds, 18-29, or only 5.2 yards/attempt. That's well below the league average.

Looking at the Texans game, This is the only game in which the Chiefs defense really didn't play very well. And yet they only really stunk in the 2nd quarter, in which they gave up 20 points. The rest of the game they gave up only 11 points. And the Texans offense is ranked 9th in the league. The Chiefs lost by a single score.

The issue with the Chiefs defense this season has been stopping the run; specifically 1st down run efficiency, 1st downs given up, and TOP. Excepting the last game against the Broncos, of course. However, in that game we saw what the Chiefs run defense efficiency could look like going forward.

No, I'm not saying that the Chiefs defense should be expected to hold the next 9 teams played to 70 yards rushing or anything like that. But until the Broncos game, the team was giving up more yards rushing to opponents than their season average per game. If the Chiefs can consistently keep opponents from rushing their season average, even just by 10% or so, that might be enough to put our defense in the top 10 defenses overall.

Furthermore, if our run defense can improve by just 10%, the Chiefs defense should reap the rewards in the form in more QB sacks, pressures, hits, INTs, etc., as opponents are forced into 3rd and long situations more often.

Again, I'm not saying that the Chiefs defense is a top-10 defense, or that they will be for certain by season's end. But they are improved, and could be in the conversation for top-10 defenses by the end of the regular season.

**New World Order** · 10-24-2019, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Giant Octopodes

Out of curiosity, if the previous Pats opponents are not NFL teams, what are they? I think you mean "playoff contenders" not NFL teams.

As far as what you consider to be legitimate opponents, what qualifies? Do the Ravens? If they hold the Ravens to under 10, will that be a sign they're legit, or since Lamar Jackson is a young QB (whom BB always feasts on), would that not count either? If not them, then who?

Edit:

Also though I know folks here hate stats which indicate the Patriots are good, and consider them all lies, but PFF ratings for those guys:
Jamie Collins - 3rd best at his position
Kyle Van Noy - 5th best at his position
Dont'a Hightower - 16th best at his position

And in the secondary
Jonathan Jones - 6th best at his position
Jason McCourty - 7th best at his position
Devin McCourty - 7th best at his position

The idea these guys are a bunch of scrubs who are getting lucky is just patently untrue. The fact that they're not household names has more to do with the media's constant insistence that no one on the Patriots are any good other than Brady than it does actual measurable fact. The defense for the Patriots is Full of guys who, based on production and measurable performance should be making all pro this year.

A bunch of JAGS

Pats schedule is like the Chiefs playing Denver 7 times.

Megatron96 · 10-24-2019, 04:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by New World Order

A bunch of JAGS

Pats schedule is like the Chiefs playing Denver 7 times.

Actually, it's worse than that.

DEN is the 24th ranked offense, and 4th ranked defense. Four of the teams that the Patriots have played rank below the Broncos in total offense. Only the Bills rank higher at 18th in the league.

In terms of defense, four out of the teams the Patriots have played rank in the bottom third of the league. Three of those teams rank between 25th and 32nd.

DEN is the AFC-W version of the Bills. Who are 5-1. Playing essentially the same basement dwellers that the Patriots have played. It's reasonable to postulate that the Broncos defense could hold the Patriots to under 20 points.

To simulate the Patriots schedule, the Chiefs would have to play a team worse than the Broncos 7 times.

10-24-2019, 10:42 AM	#22
Pasta Little Brioni Consuming CP souls Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: U.S.A. Casino cash: $4008880	Bunch of no name pieces of shit on any other team. But NE gets by with D holding __________________ **Official TFWdemB Trivia Commisioner**
Posts: 68,436	1 0

10-24-2019, 12:25 PM	#23
B_Ambuehl Veteran Join Date: Apr 2005 Casino cash: $9805405	They play very well within the scheme. No argument there. But if anyone in the front 7 other than Hightower were to be put on IR tomorrow you'd see absolutely zero drop-off. It's what I was trying to tell people last year talking about the guys in the Chiefs front 7. Make it about the scheme and longevity with regard to salary cap and not so much about highlight reel players. What Belichik has done is mastered the salary cap from an analytics perspective defensively. Even if your front 7 is as talented as the chicago bears you still need guys that can cover. At some point it becomes cost prohibitive and you end up with a very uneven roster. Belichik puts big run stoppers at every position in the front 7, and big run stoppers can be found cheap. There's really not a single freaky athlete anywhere in that front but they are all difficult to move. The secondary is actually very talented though and most players would start for any team. So you defend the run via personnel, defend the pass via having good coverage guys, and get pressure via scheme & coverage. Add it all up and it's a very high value defense.
Posts: 2,605	1 0

10-24-2019, 02:01 PM	#24
jerryaldini MVP Join Date: Dec 2018 Casino cash: $4580400	Another thread derailed on Pats Planet.
Posts: 7,342

10-24-2019, 02:03 PM	#25
ChiefBlueCFC Veteran Join Date: Aug 2018 Location: KCMO BABY Casino cash: $8070410	Can someone point me to what DVOA is? I read about it briefly once and I can't remember exactly what it is and how its calculated. __________________ WE FIRED BOB SUTTON
Posts: 2,728

10-24-2019, 04:20 PM	#28
Megatron96 Suupraa Geniuuusss Join Date: Jan 2019 Location: Phoenix, AZ Casino cash: $1980400	Thanks for the OP; lots of info to absorb. The Chiefs defense has played better than what I thought, and I have been optimistic about our defense from day one. And against some pretty good offenses. For instance, the Ravens offense, which many of us maligned early in the season, is currently 2nd in the NFL (pts/gm). Further, if you look at the Chiefs schedule, they have only played one offense ranked in the bottom tier for pts/gm; the Broncos. *Every other offense that the Chiefs have played against have been in the top 18.* In fact, four of the seven teams the Chiefs have played are ranked in the top 13 offenses (pts/gam). Even in the two games the Chiefs lost, the defense played fairly well overall. In the Colts game (15th-best offense, 23.8pts/gm), the Chiefs defense held them below their season average by almost 5 points, and more importantly, held them to a single TD and four field goals. Brissett only threw for 151 yds, 18-29, or only 5.2 yards/attempt. That's well below the league average. Looking at the Texans game, This is the only game in which the Chiefs defense really didn't play very well. And yet they only really stunk in the 2nd quarter, in which they gave up 20 points. The rest of the game they gave up only 11 points. And the Texans offense is ranked 9th in the league. The Chiefs lost by a single score. The issue with the Chiefs defense this season has been stopping the run; specifically 1st down run efficiency, 1st downs given up, and TOP. Excepting the last game against the Broncos, of course. However, in that game we saw what the Chiefs run defense efficiency *could look like going forward.* No, I'm not saying that the Chiefs defense should be expected to hold the next 9 teams played to 70 yards rushing or anything like that. But until the Broncos game, the team was giving up more yards rushing to opponents than their season average per game. If the Chiefs can consistently keep opponents from rushing their season average, even just by 10% or so, that might be enough to put our defense in the top 10 defenses overall. Furthermore, if our run defense can improve by just 10%, the Chiefs defense should reap the rewards in the form in more QB sacks, pressures, hits, INTs, etc., as opponents are forced into 3rd and long situations more often. Again, I'm not saying that the Chiefs defense is a top-10 defense, or that they will be for certain by season's end. But they are improved, and could be in the conversation for top-10 defenses by the end of the regular season.
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