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Old 09-05-2019, 03:47 PM  
banyon banyon is offline
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I think I'm almost ready to join the Yang gang?

I was kind of waiting for this Democratic monstrosity field to winnow itself down a bit, but I heard this guy today on the On Point radio show (broadcast on NPR) and he is making tons more sense to me than anyone else up there.

this was the high point of the interview for me:

"It was Donald Trump's victory in 2016, where I'd spent the previous six years running a nonprofit, Venture for America, that I'd founded that helped create thousands of jobs in places like Detroit, St. Louis, Cleveland, Birmingham, New Orleans. And I was stunned by what I saw in the rest of the country where automation had decimated communities, had eliminated 4 million manufacturing jobs in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. And then Donald Trump won in 2016, which to me was a giant red flag. It was a, 'Stop what you're doing. We just elected a narcissist, reality TV star as our president.' And tens of millions of Americans were desperate enough to think that that was the right move. And to me, it was clear that this is the manifestation of this economic transformation that we're in the midst of, that, for whatever reason, our politicians are not discussing — the elimination of these 4 million manufacturing jobs will now migrate to retail. And people who are listening to this are seeing Main Street stores close around them every single day. Call centers, fast food and then eventually hit truck driving, and being a trucker is the most common job in 29 states. There are 3 1/2 million truck drivers in the U.S.

"And so I had no intention of running for president at any point. My wife laughs about it because in some ways I make a lousy politician. But Trump wins. I say, 'OK, this is a straight automation story — that we're in the third inning of the fourth industrial revolution. No one's talking about it. We're scapegoating immigrants for problems that immigrants have next to nothing to do with.' When you're in that position, you say, 'Well, how can I, on wake up America to the fact that this is a huge transformation we're in the midst of?' Then we need to start addressing and start solving the problems in the right timeframe, given that we're five to 10 years away from robot trucks hitting the highways."



He is correct about this transformation and that no one else is talking about it because it's almost too big a subject for anyone to take on. But he's right this is happening to us nationwide and we aren't acknowledging the reality of it. Just letting Amazon and Google sort it out for the rest of us may not result in the Country we are hoping to see in 50 years.

I mean he's at 3%, so probably he's got no shot, but He has already lasted longer than some much bigger party names. What do you guys think?
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Old 09-06-2019, 07:13 AM   #91
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Yang Gang wants to “monitor” domestic terrorism.


Think he’ll look into Antifa or BLM or mosques ?
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Old 09-06-2019, 07:29 AM   #92
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...those are things that can be easily automated. They're making trucks that can drive cross country by themselves, having a device that monitors straps and increases tensions based on those readings is child's play.



And even the things they can't automate, you can set up checkpoints where there are a few people checking things or repairing things across the country. Instead of 1 person per truck doing those operations, you can have 1 person per checkpoint for a whole fleet checking trucks as they drive across the country.
You are referring to only one aspect of trucking which is long haul. Which ignores all the other aspects of trucking, and trades that operate off of a truck.

You clearly haven't wrapped your head around the logistics of having a "few" people at checkpoints set up. It would be many people, at many different checkpoints, all over. You'd still have a logistical mess to orchestrate.

What it will come down to is cost. So factor in that strap tightening device you mentioned, the costs and maintenance, plus the cost of this brand new self driving truck, plus the new costs of maintenance on this new truck. The checkpoints and yadda yadda, you get the point. It's not whether they have the technology, it is whether they can do it at scale. Is the juice worth the squeeze? Not in 10 years it won't be. Maybe 30.

You're much more likely to see mass layoffs in white color professions before blue collar skilled trades, due to automation.

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Old 09-06-2019, 07:59 AM   #93
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While I am also critical for other reasons of corporate cronyism, I disagree with your attempt at equivalence between incentives and subsidies, and government control.

There's a difference between a fully stocked supermarket putting the staples at the back of the store and the candy up by the checkout, and all the supermarkets available only stocking candy.

I also disagree that 'both sides' equally actually want big government. The failing of conservative politicians isn't 'secretly' yearning for big government, it's for timid conservative politicians willing to concede enough big government to peel off shaky voters.

Free shit is a tough thing to campaign against, but someone has to do it.

Your perspective is that at least liberals are honest about yearning for massive government. My perspective is that conservatives are the closest government gets to being honest about the fundamental fact that nothing is actually free.
I lean fiscally conservative so I agree that conservatives are better fiscal watchdogs. But one can't play the holier than thou govt control card while sidestepping the things I've mentioned. Crony capitalism is a pretty major piece of govt control especially as private lobbying has skyrocketed. If govt gives Amazon extraordinary benefits the small business down the street doesn't get, that's govt deciding they want Amazon to win. Everything from handshake shady public deals, to defense and prison contracts, to Google monopolizing smart city tech. And it's not just govt tax benefits. It's also when lobbying allows money to alter the regulatory environment to the benefit of the highest bidder. When big oil for years has sabotaged alt energy because of lobbying. When Amazon sidestepped sales tax everyone else, including etailers, had to pay. By the way, I used to believe that conservatives were better fiscally as they were moving more libertarian but Trump populism has totally upended that ideology, in my opinion.
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Old 09-06-2019, 08:02 AM   #94
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Article this morning about the momentum in Yang's campaign. It's about time we started electing politicians based on intelligence, reasoning skills and evidence-based policies rather than rhetorical ability and appeals to demonization of the opposition. Not right, not left, forward. "Mr. Yang has attracted an ideologically eclectic coalition that includes progressives, libertarians, disaffected voters and Trump supporters who have swapped their red MAGA hats for blue ones that say MATH — “Make America Think Harder.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/06/u...yang-2020.html
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Old 09-06-2019, 08:06 AM   #95
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Crony capitalism is a pretty major piece of govt control especially as private lobbying has skyrocketed. If govt gives Amazon extraordinary benefits the small business down the street doesn't get, that's govt deciding they want Amazon to win. Everything from handshake shady public deals, to defense and prison contracts, to Google monopolizing smart city tech. And it's not just govt tax benefits. It's also when lobbying allows money to alter the regulatory environment to the benefit of the highest bidder. When big oil for years has sabotaged alt energy because of lobbying. When Amazon sidestepped sales tax everyone else, including etailers, had to pay. By the way, I used to believe that conservatives were better fiscally as they were moving more libertarian but Trump populism has totally upended that ideology, in my opinion.
Let's take a stroll down memory lane....

Obama's biggest claim to fame was Obamacare, which sought nominally to expand health insurance to more people but which, in reality, was a disguised bid to destroy private-sector health coverage, in a disguised bid to enact a single-payer system. Diabolical as it sounded, the Obama team is on the record for it. Obamacare did destroy competition, and with it, it took away freedom of choice and significantly raised insurance premiums, out-of-pocket costs, and deductibles, on most consumers and businesses. There were plenty of winners and losers there.

Obama and his regulators also continually raised the compliance costs on all banks, through Dodd-Frank and other measures and this significantly reduced the number of small banks for business startups. The nominal winners here were big banks, but they didn't come out unscathed, either. Some bank executives were targeted for SEIU union thuggery in their homes, and big banks were shaken down for "community" purposes, which the Treasury turned into a slush fund for community organizers. It was a big payday for winners such as ACORN. Consumers were the big losers because the number of choices they had were reduced.

Energy was an even bigger area of Obama picking winners and losers, and here the corruption got epic. Obama continually rewarded unsustainable solar and wind companies to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars in subsidies. A certain small class of hucksters running unsustainable companies such as Solyndra made out like bandits and taxpayers were left on the hook for $500 million. When the bills were sorted out after the company went bust, the Obama hucksters got paid first, despite mismanaging the company, and taxpayers were left holding the bag. Once again, winners and losers – as if that weren't bad enough, Obama sought to destroy and bankrupt fossil fuel companies and especially coal companies. His goal was to bankrupt coal companies, and his vice president, Joe Biden, said so quite explicitly. As for oil and gas, Obama blocked critical drilling and pipeline projects and hollered about how oil companies were "subsidized," when in fact they were not. He brought out the big guns when America's largest foreign investor, BP, had a bad accident in the Gulf of Mexico in 2009. He shook an unprecedented $4 billion in fines from the company and forced it to set up a questionably legal $20-billion cleanup cost trust fund, promptly triggering a gold rush from corrupt local governments inflating their costs. He also forced BP to put more than $1 billion of its fine in a special "discretionary" fund administered by his politicized Department of Justice. The money, according to Encyclopedia Britannica, was mismanaged. That certainly left a few winners among Obama's cronies. But it made consumers and the economy big losers with higher costs. Billionaires such as Elon Musk were big winners with his otherwise unsustainable Tesla "green" car project, because he got government subsidies for making fancy playthings for the rich.

People who wanted to protect wildlife were also big losers under Obama, because while he would fine oil companies if they killed protected birds, wind and solar panel farms, killed far more wildlife were treated much more softly. Meanwhile, the Animas River, which is a sacred waterway to Americans Indians in the Colorado region, was flooded with toxic chemicals in the Gold King Mine scandal in 2015, by Obama's Environmental Protection Agency. Not a one of those who committed the blunder was punished, yet American Indians were left holding the bag. Obama's winners and losers extended to many communities, as you can see – and even to the animal kingdom.

There was more: when Obama bailed out General Motors in 2009, he violated longstanding bankruptcy protocols by making unions big winners over secured creditors, such as bondholders, and other unsecured creditors, who by law were entitled to first priority on debt repayment. They and the taxpayers got left high and dry while Obama's favored unions got another winning chip. Politically unfavored unions, by the way, such as the Delphi Corporation workers union, got left high and dry, too, stiffed as the politically favored United Auto Workers got all they wanted.

President Obama declared that manufacturing jobs would never come back, and by his policies, he tried to make that a true statement.

Basically, the big winners in the Obama world were people who lived and worked around D.C., where they produce nothing but regulations. Several of the wealthiest counties are around D.C. If they didn't live around D.C., such as denizens of the Bay Area or Detroit, they did something to support Obama's campaign. There were definitely winners based on this criterion, and anyone outside it was a loser.

Those big losers were the rest of us, who suffered from a tremendously slow economy, stagnant wages, and regulations that unnecessarily pushed up costs.

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog...nd_losers.html
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Old 09-06-2019, 08:13 AM   #96
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I lean fiscally conservative so I agree that conservatives are better fiscal watchdogs. But one can't play the holier than thou govt control card while sidestepping the things I've mentioned. Crony capitalism is a pretty major piece of govt control especially as private lobbying has skyrocketed. If govt gives Amazon extraordinary benefits the small business down the street doesn't get, that's govt deciding they want Amazon to win. Everything from handshake shady public deals, to defense and prison contracts, to Google monopolizing smart city tech. And it's not just govt tax benefits. It's also when lobbying allows money to alter the regulatory environment to the benefit of the highest bidder. When big oil for years has sabotaged alt energy because of lobbying. When Amazon sidestepped sales tax everyone else, including etailers, had to pay. By the way, I used to believe that conservatives were better fiscally as they were moving more libertarian but Trump populism has totally upended that ideology, in my opinion.
Unfortunately this "conservative" administration is ballooning the federal deficit to 1 trillion annually. Both parties spend profligately when in power. Unlike Trump, who inhereted his wealth and whose attraction to debt has resulted in multiple bankruptcies, Yang is an entrepreneur who has run startups and had to operate within a budget. He's an analytical numbees geek who gets the MATH.
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Old 09-06-2019, 08:15 AM   #97
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I lean fiscally conservative so I agree that conservatives are better fiscal watchdogs. But one can't play the holier than thou govt control card while sidestepping the things I've mentioned. Crony capitalism is a pretty major piece of govt control especially as private lobbying has skyrocketed. If govt gives Amazon extraordinary benefits the small business down the street doesn't get, that's govt deciding they want Amazon to win. Everything from handshake shady public deals, to defense and prison contracts, to Google monopolizing smart city tech. And it's not just govt tax benefits. It's also when lobbying allows money to alter the regulatory environment to the benefit of the highest bidder. When big oil for years has sabotaged alt energy because of lobbying. When Amazon sidestepped sales tax everyone else, including etailers, had to pay. By the way, I used to believe that conservatives were better fiscally as they were moving more libertarian but Trump populism has totally upended that ideology, in my opinion.
Again, not a fan of crony capitalism. But not all 'subsidies' are the same.

Take a forinstance of energy.

Obama admin subsidized a bunch of unproven stuff on the 'promise' that it would one day not be such a ripoff. Wind and solar, throwing old cars on the garbage heap, etc.

Subsidizing a mature industry like fossil fuels is more often about separating government/societal expenses from core enterprise expenses.

Suppose you're an oil extraction and refinement company. That stuff still needs to be distributed. Is a pipeline more like a company asset, or more like the interstate highway system? How about when you consider that all oil extraction and refinement companies will be using that pipeline, and all consumers will benefit from not having to travel to the shale fields of Canada to fill up their vehicle?

There are endless details to ****le over in all of it, but the distinction remains between subsidies to try to impose unproven tech and subsidies to distribute proven tech. The USPS, the internet, the interstate, the power grid. These are infrastructure, and the argument is easier made to rely on the government to provide for the common good in assuring the comprehensiveness and reliability of that infrastructure than it is to get the government to pick winners and losers in emerging technologies.
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Old 09-06-2019, 08:16 AM   #98
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...those are things that can be easily automated. They're making trucks that can drive cross country by themselves, having a device that monitors straps and increases tensions based on those readings is child's play.

And even the things they can't automate, you can set up checkpoints where there are a few people checking things or repairing things across the country. Instead of 1 person per truck doing those operations, you can have 1 person per checkpoint for a whole fleet checking trucks as they drive across the country.
You’re making it sound far more simple than it will actually be

Just getting the infrastructure in place is going to take a ton of time and a shitload of money... and bear in mind not every trucking outfit is gonna have the jack for a whole fleet of these space age trucks
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Old 09-06-2019, 08:29 AM   #99
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So people are really going to ship goods on a truck with no person in it? I think we're a long way from that.
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Old 09-06-2019, 08:35 AM   #100
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You’re making it sound far more simple than it will actually be

Just getting the infrastructure in place is going to take a ton of time and a shitload of money... and bear in mind not every trucking outfit is gonna have the jack for a whole fleet of these space age trucks
May not be the best example because it will take time. But in a decade or two, it could be very very different. The more obvious example is retail and service. FinTech is in a sprint to replace tons of service jobs with self service. Some retail will survive but a ton of traditional retail jobs are going off a cliff. Public transportation and uber/lyft/taxi will be replaced by driverless sooner rather than later. And more driverless and electric likely means less car maintenance. Then factor in that things like warehousing, logistics, etc.... We may see a spike in labor early as we adjust but it will be a very steady crawl toward eventually automating way more jobs than we are able to create.
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Old 09-06-2019, 08:38 AM   #101
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So people are really going to ship goods on a truck with no person in it? I think we're a long way from that.
We are, but are we far off from driverless rail or automation of a lot of warehousing (such as driverless forklifts)? And even a lot of these jobs will go from high skill to basically just sitting in the cab making sure nothing goes wrong. Downgrading some of these jobs may not necessarily be as far off.
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Old 09-06-2019, 08:49 AM   #102
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Star Trek always made me wonder what the people on Earth actually to.

Everything is automated. I can’t imagine how a real Star Trek scenario would play out.
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Old 09-06-2019, 08:54 AM   #103
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So people are really going to ship goods on a truck with no person in it? I think we're a long way from that.
Any job that involves a dangerous situation is going to get automated in the near future. It's happening right now in mining, and will spread from there. The goal isn't just reducing costs (which include wages as well as increased liability), but also meeting increasingly strict safety regulations.
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Old 09-06-2019, 08:55 AM   #104
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Well he hasn't proposed population reduction through selective abortion, which makes him better than Bernie.

Never would have imagined a 2020 candidate coming out as pro eugenics, but there you go. Kinda surprised nobody around here jumped on that.
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Old 09-06-2019, 09:03 AM   #105
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Any job that involves a dangerous situation is going to get automated in the near future. It's happening right now in mining, and will spread from there. The goal isn't just reducing costs (which include wages as well as increased liability), but also meeting increasingly strict safety regulations.
Which is why UBI, which Yang is in favor of, will come eventually. Only those who truly wish to work will be working at some point due to automation. The rest will live on "Basic" and lead lives of bare subsistence.
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