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How the lockout could affect the Minor Leagues.


1. Will the minor leagues still play without MLB baseball?

Yes.

As best they can without offending MLB, minor league teams will be making clear over and over that this lockout will not affect their ability to play games.

The regular season of Triple-A baseball begins on April 5. The rest of the full-season minors (Double-A and the Class A levels) begins on April 8.

The minors will not have players currently on 40-man rosters, but otherwise the minors will roll along somewhat as normal. In 1994, the minor leagues got some additional attention from baseball-starved fans.

Don’t expect any teams to tap into the anger towards MLB with their promotions, however. MLB has to approve all promotions, so don’t expect to see any “Mad At Manfred” promotions.


2. What happens to prospects on the 40-man rosters?

They’re stuck. While their minor league teammates who aren’t on 40-man rosters can continue to play and develop, they are locked out.

Even if the lockout just stretches for a few more weeks, they will lose development time in the minors while they get into game shape. And if the lockout stretches for a while, those prospects could lose several months of games. For many of them, that would be a second interrupted season in three years, joining the 2020 pandemic-canceled season.

3. What happens when spring training (eventually/hopefully) begins?

No one really knows. It depends a lot on how long it takes for the two sides to come to a deal. A deal next week means there’s very little impact. Spring training will start later than normal, a week of games will be lost, but otherwise normalcy will largely resume.

But come April, the Low-A Southeast teams could find themselves kicked to the backfields (probably) if MLB spring training arrives in Florida and Arizona at that time. After all, every Low-A Southeast team other than Daytona shares its park with an MLB team’s spring training site. In the case of Jupiter, it could have two spring training teams (Marlins and Cardinals), two Low-A teams (Jupiter and Palm Beach) and two extended spring teams (Marlins and Cardinals) trying to share one oversized complex.

If the lockout stretches to May, the problem becomes the weather in Arizona. The weather in Arizona in March is wonderful. By late May, temperatures touching 100 degrees are possible. By June, the highs can reach 115-120 degrees, which makes it a little unpleasant to do the morning work that is part of spring training, even if the games themselves are moved to the evening.

No matter when it happens, spring training becomes very different. To ease players into action, teams usually rely heavily on bringing up players from minor league camp (and bringing minor leaguers to big league camp) for spring training. If those players are already playing around the minors, MLB teams will have to rely on 40-man roster players, potentially non-roster invitees (see the next question) and extended spring players.

4. What happens to players who signed minor league deals with MLB spring training invites?

Again, we don’t know.

Those players can go out and play minor league games since they signed minor league contracts, but what happens if spring training begins? Do they stay in Triple-A or do they then head to spring training to compete for big league jobs?

Also, while it makes some sense to be in spring training to compete for a job, the downside is players get paid for Triple-A games, but they don’t get paid for spring training games.

5. What happens to the Rule 5 draft?

When the lockout stretched into January and February, the expectation was that the Rule 5 draft would happen soon after the CBA deal was reached.

But if the lockout stretches for another month, it becomes hard to see how a Rule 5 draft could work. The minute minor league games are played, it becomes much more complicated. Protection lists were made in November 2021. MLB teams will dread the idea of having players show they have taken a big step forward and then be made available for an in-season Rule 5 draft.

A shortened season also makes the supposed penalty of picking a Rule 5 pick (carrying them on the active roster all year) a smaller one.

If this happened last year, Astros outfielder Jake Meyers, Twins infielder Jose Miranda and Cubs first baseman Frank Schwindel would have been among the players who could have quickly pushed themselves into Rule 5 consideration.

6. What is the MLB lockout about?

Perhaps the biggest sticking point is the league's Competitive Balance Tax, which levies fines on teams whose payrolls exceed a pre-determined figure. That number was $210 million in 2021, with only the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres paying the tax.

Players argue that the luxury tax serves as a soft salary cap, thereby stifling wages and discouraging teams from spending money to be competitive.

The players asked the CBT be $238 million in 2022, increasing to $263 million by the end of the five-year CBA. The owners' final offer before Tuesday's deadline had the 2022 threshold at $220 million – and staying there for three years – ultimately rising to $230 million by 2026.

7. How much money will the players, owners forfeit?

For players, the cost is clear: Each earns 1/186th of his base salary each day

Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole, both members of the union’s eight-man executive subcommittee, would forfeit the most. Scherzer would lose $232,975 for each regular-season day lost and Cole $193,548.

Based on last year’s base salaries that totaled just over $3.8 billion, major league players would combine to lose $20.5 million for each day wiped off the 186-day regular-season schedule.

However, chief union negotiator Bruce Meyer said Tuesday he expects players will be paid for games missed, and figures to include that in ongoing CBA bargaining.

8. What happens to the the remaining free agents on the market?

The lockout stopped all business including trades and free-agent signings. There are currently 100's of remaining free agents, including shortstop Carlos Correa, first baseman Freddie Freeman and shortstop Trevor Story remaining on the market. Before the lockout began, teams committed $1.7 billion to free agents in a flurry of signings.

9. Are spring training camps open now?

Yes, but for minor league players only and those not on the 40-man roster. Pitchers and catchers for some teams were to report to preseason camps on Feb. 15, with full squads beginning a week later. But with the lockout, MLB players are not allowed on the premises.

This has created a bit of a purgatory situation for some minor league players who have never reached the majors, but are on 40-man rosters

10. Is minor league baseball affected by the lockout?

No, the minor league season will begin as scheduled in April. Players who are not on a 40-man roster or signed to a big-league deal reported to spring training in February. Minor leaguers are not part of the MLB Players Association.

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