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Old 05-15-2018, 03:47 PM   #73
Halfcan Halfcan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rain Man View Post
I'm curious about the Chargers as well. Maybe it's just habit, but I never view the Chargers as being relevant.

If I was to step outside my Chiefs fandom for a moment and think about how a national writer might view the division, starting at the top last year.

1. Chiefs (10-6 in 2017). Not knowing the Chiefs, I'd probably conclude that they're starting a young quarterback and that their quarterback last year was statistically very effective. I'd see that they didn't have a first-round pick this year, so they may have lost some ground in the offseason, especially by giving away Peters, and I'd see that the defense was not ranked very high to cover up for a young quarterback's mistakes.

The error in this thinking is what we all know. This offense is a powder keg that was held back by conservative quarterback play last year. We've actually seen Patrick Mahomes II play on an NFL level, and we know what he's going to add. Also, the defense is getting younger and faster, and hopefully ridding itself of low-effort guys, but who are we kidding? Defense won't matter when Mahomes is revving full-throttle.

2. Chargers (9-7 in 2017). A national writer will see the most experienced quarterback in the division who routinely produces a lot of yards, and a couple of established pass rushers. They'll see that the Chargers lost most of their draft class to injury last year, so they'll effectively introduce two drafts this year. A national writer will conclude that they'll improve.

The error in this thinking is that Rivers doesn't have the "it" factor. He hasn't had a team above 9-7 in a decade, and their new coach is going to hit the wall this year as other teams get film on his tendencies. The Chargers are an injury-prone team (which is likely something baked into their risk-taking), so they'll always lose players to injuries at a higher rate. Other than Joey Bosa, who is legit, guys like Melvin Ingram and Melvin Gordon look good only because they're the best talent on the team. They're not great players when you look across the league. Gordon has not had a season averaging 4.0 ypc, and Ingram tops out at 10 sacks per year, which doesn't wow anyone.

3. Raiders (6-10 in 2017). A national writer will see Derek Carr and presume success. The Raiders tend to find some big names in free agency, so they get media attention.

The error in this thinking is that Carr is above average, but not great, and he has no talent around him. Their free agents are has-beens like Marshawn Lynch and Jordy Nelson who don't scare teams any more. And their defense has holes everywhere you look.

4. Broncos (5-11 in 2017). If you're a national writer, you might ascribe all of the blame to the quarterback situation, and a fair amount does belong there. Adding Casey Kasem at quarterback brings them up from abysmal to adequate at that position. Also, it appears that Denver drafted more out of a draft magazine this year than relying on their scouts, as it seems that they took more low-risk players. So if you assume that there's a big bump at the QB position, maybe you see them going higher than 5-11.

This thinking is wrong, of course, because they continue to lose talent on defense, and their quarterback is a stopgap. Their receivers are getting lethargic, they have no running game, and the worst OL in the business. Will they beat 5-11? Not likely.
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