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Originally Posted by BWillie
is johnny cueto a borderline hall of famer? He gotta be close
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Got you covered on that question Bwillie - the answer is no.
There is actually a useful stat for this, called JAWS:
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The JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score system) was developed by sabermetrician Jay Jaffe — first at Baseball Prospectus in 2004 — as a means to measure a player's Hall of Fame worthiness by comparing him to the players at his position who are already enshrined, using advanced metrics to account for the wide variations in offensive levels that have occurred throughout the game's history.
A player's JAWS is his career WAR averaged with his 7-year peak WAR (not necessarily consecutive years).
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Here is that
leaderboard. Take a look at Cueto at 225th all time, and how many pitchers had a higher JAWS score that wouldn't get in. Amongst active players, he is behind John Lackey (33.3), Bumgarner (34.2), Corey Kluber (34.8), David Price (35.8), Jon Lester (38.8), Adam Wainwright (41.4)....guys like Chris Sale, Scherzer, Kershaw and De Grom are above all them.
The lowest JAWS score of any hall of fame SP was Ray Brown with 34.7, then Candy Cummings with 36.2. There are only four others in history at 38.0 or below. You really gotta have over 50.0 to be a legit HOF candidate, but Curt Schilling put up 64.0 and didn't get in. That's the highest JAWS score for a SP to not get in.
The average JAWS score of the 66 SP Hall of Famers is 61.4, which probably best illustrates where Cueto stands (his is 30.0)
One guy that will get in is Zack Grieinke, 32nd all time with a JAWS of 62.5, just above Tom Glavine (62.4) and just below Clayton Kershaw (62.8).
Cueto has a case for hall of very good, but he ain't no Candy Cummings. You gotta at least be a Candy Cummings to be a real HOF candidate.