Quote:
Originally Posted by TLO
Yep. 3 points for being at home.
Sunday is going to be epic.
|
It's not as simple as this. I hate the "3 points for being at home" rhetoric. Is the Chiefs' HFA the same as the Chargers' or some other pathetic team?
It's a good, oversimplified general rule, of course. But Vegas' only goal is to balance the line. I read a piece from a super-reliable source that explained it like this: Vegas knows the public is going to pound NE #cuzBrady. They opened at -3 instead of -6 for that reason, and even as the money comes in on NE, they're not going to reduce the line to -2 or -1
because they don't want a ton of money then going on KC.
Last week, the Colts were getting most of the money at +5 and +5.5 but Vegas didn't push it DOWN to +4.5 or +4 because they thought KC would win and they didn't want a sharp bettor coming in hot on KC at an even better price.
It didn't help them because the sharps still hit KC. Look at the guy who came in with $1,200,000 on the Chiefs at -5 and -5.5.