Quote:
Originally Posted by Jakemall
You're right, it does take two to tango. Sometimes you can't trade out of a pick, that doesn't mean that you wouldn't have been better off if you could.
You keep pointing out to context vs stats. Stats suggest that no GM is smart enough to pick out the context. Example Eli Manning. Context at the time said he was the next Peyton. He's a solid QB, but certainly not Peyton. Now look at what he was traded for:
Philip Rivers, Shawne Merriman and Nate Kaeding.
No question in my mind that SD came out ahead with this deal. Manning might be slightly better than Rivers...might...but the rest of the trade goes to SD.
Instead of trading up the Giants could have stayed put and gotten Big Ben.
If you look at every trade ever made in the 1st round in the history of the NFL you will find that the majority of the "winners" were the ones trading down.
That nullifies the value of the GM's smarts.
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You're talking about trading up vs trading down.
It's also about expected value of a draft pick. If you're expecting any qb you drsft to be manning, it's probably going to fail.
In the end, while there is alot of sense to it, there are to many variables that factor in to these situations and whether a draft pick becomes x or y, that isn't simply up to the player. Situation, philosphy, parts around him, offensive coordinator etc.