[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Kareem Hunt is more accurately a prime example of the Paradox of Skill.

By Reid/Dorsey's own admission, they moved up for Hunt because he was the last man standing in a 'tier' of RBs, but only after they couldn't move up to get Cook. They didn't think Hunt would be a superstar or he wouldn't have been the #2 back behind Ware (and they wouldn't have risked losing him so they could take a project like Kpassagnon).

But the Paradox of Skill holds that as the overall skill level of a group rises, simple luck becomes more and more critical to the ultimate outcome.

NFL GM's these days are damn good. Amateur scouting is better than it's ever been. The tools these guys have at their disposal and the money/resources that goes into unearthing every bit of information about the players is unprecedented. The vast majority of NFL front offices are extremely qualified.

And that being the case, being truly great at drafts anymore is largely a product of dumb luck. You have to be a part of the group of highly skilled GMs to put yourself in the position to stumble into that luck, to be sure (bad GM's don't get lucky often). But there are so many good GMs that the odds of one organization just being flat out obviously better than others are pretty remote.

I know exactly what you're saying and largely agree with it. However, in this case, trading up to draft this particular guy appears to be more than luck; they wanted THIS player and weren't content with picking the best player available at their slotted selection.

Luck is certainly a significant element of the equation, but I think moving up to select a particular player moves the action further away from the influence of luck.