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kccrow · 12-10-2018, 06:24 PM

In playing around with altering this mock and trying to sign Dee Ford in lieu of Bell, it became mind-numbingly apparent to me that there is a fundamental flaw in the thought process in any one of these options where we extend Hill, extend Jones, and pay Ford or a big name free agent. The issue is not that we can't "squeeze" them under the cap for 2019, it's what happens in 2020. The cap gets unbelievably tight.

Here's an example of what I was thinking in a version 2.0 of this one without Bell from a signings perspective (note that I try to assume market values relative to current contracts and go from there)...
Extensions
Hill: 5 years/$95.0m contract extension with $65m in guarantees, $42m guaranteed at signing, and $20m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 6.097 2020: 18.75 2021: 19.25 2022: 19.75 2023: 18.25 2024: 15.00

Jones: 5 years, $81.0m contract extension with $40.0m guaranteed at signing including $20.0m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 5.98 2020: 13.00 2021: 15.00 2022: 16.00 2023: 17.00 2024: 16.00

Tags
FS Jordan Lucas: RFA Original Round Tender estimated $2.02m
OC Austin Reiter: RFA Original Round Tender estimated $2.02m (I'm just going to leave this in here until the details of his extension are released)
DL Justin Hamilton: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
PK Harrison Butker: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
WR Markus Kemp: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
WR Gehrig Deiter: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus

Signings
OC Brett Jones (MIN): 2 years/$5.5m with $2.25m guaranteed and $1.0m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 2.50 2020: 3.00

ED Markus Golden (ARZ): 2 years/$7.0m with $1.50m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 2.40 2020: 4.60

TE Maxx Williams (BAL): 3 years/$9.0m with $1.5m signing bonus, and $1.0m roster bonuses in 2020 and 2021 if he's on the roster the 5th day of the new league year. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 2.00 2020: 3.25 2021: 3.75

Re-Signings
CB Steven Nelson: 4 years/$31.0m with $10.0m guaranteed at signing, and $6.0m signing bonus and another $6.0m guaranteed (salary) if on the roster the 5th day of the 2020 league year. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 5.50 2020: 7.75 2021: 8.50 2022: 9.25

ED Dee Ford: 5 years/$86.00m with 41.00m guaranteed at signing including a 20.00m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 13.00 2020: 16.00 2021: 17.00 2022: 20.00 2023 20.00

FB Anthony Sherman: 4 years/$8.4m with $5.0m guaranteed and $2.4m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.90 2020: 2.00 2021: 2.20 2022: 2.30

RB Spencer Ware: 2 year/$3.0m with $500k roster bonuses in each year. Estimated Cap Hits: 2019: $1.40 2020: 1.60

Cuts
SS Eric Berry: June 1 Designation

Let Walk
DE Allen Bailey, CB Orlando Scandrick, TE Demetrius Harris, FS Josh Shaw, RB Damien Williams, OC Mitch Morse, FS Ron Parker, WR De'Anthony Thomas, OLB Frank Zombo, CB Steven Nelson, ILB Terrence Smith, WR Chris Conley

This put me at 5.72m in space for 2019 with the draft class signing... But only 1.93m in space for 2020. That's where I think a Houston extension with 2020 salary converted to a bonus similar to the deal Terrell Suggs got would be a win or the Chiefs would have to cut him. As well, they'd have to cut Sammy Watkins in all likelihood in order to give them cap to play with.

Obviously I could not sign any street free agents and gain $10.8m for 2020. It's unlikely KC signs nobody. If I choose not to cut Berry, that space gets eaten up and then some. Basically, to keep Berry you're looking at no FAs and not re-signing Nelson if you want to keep Ford.

So the question here is do you keep Ford or Berry or neither, assuming you want to keep Jones and Hill? You could choose not to extend Hill or Jones and then re-sign them in 2020 but you may not save money versus the extend now contract. I don't think you can go this offseason choosing to extend neither because you can't franchise them both.

12-10-2018, 06:24 PM	#23
kccrow MVP Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Michigan Casino cash: $3317078	In playing around with altering this mock and trying to sign Dee Ford in lieu of Bell, it became mind-numbingly apparent to me that there is a fundamental flaw in the thought process in any one of these options where we extend Hill, extend Jones, and pay Ford or a big name free agent. The issue is not that we can't "squeeze" them under the cap for 2019, it's what happens in 2020. The cap gets unbelievably tight. Here's an example of what I was thinking in a version 2.0 of this one without Bell from a signings perspective (note that I try to assume market values relative to current contracts and go from there)... Extensions Hill: 5 years/$95.0m contract extension with $65m in guarantees, $42m guaranteed at signing, and $20m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 6.097 2020: 18.75 2021: 19.25 2022: 19.75 2023: 18.25 2024: 15.00 Jones: 5 years, $81.0m contract extension with $40.0m guaranteed at signing including $20.0m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 5.98 2020: 13.00 2021: 15.00 2022: 16.00 2023: 17.00 2024: 16.00 Tags FS Jordan Lucas: RFA Original Round Tender estimated $2.02m OC Austin Reiter: RFA Original Round Tender estimated $2.02m (I'm just going to leave this in here until the details of his extension are released) DL Justin Hamilton: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus PK Harrison Butker: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus WR Markus Kemp: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus WR Gehrig Deiter: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus Signings OC Brett Jones (MIN): 2 years/$5.5m with $2.25m guaranteed and $1.0m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 2.50 2020: 3.00 ED Markus Golden (ARZ): 2 years/$7.0m with $1.50m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 2.40 2020: 4.60 TE Maxx Williams (BAL): 3 years/$9.0m with $1.5m signing bonus, and $1.0m roster bonuses in 2020 and 2021 if he's on the roster the 5th day of the new league year. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 2.00 2020: 3.25 2021: 3.75 Re-Signings CB Steven Nelson: 4 years/$31.0m with $10.0m guaranteed at signing, and $6.0m signing bonus and another $6.0m guaranteed (salary) if on the roster the 5th day of the 2020 league year. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 5.50 2020: 7.75 2021: 8.50 2022: 9.25 ED Dee Ford: 5 years/$86.00m with 41.00m guaranteed at signing including a 20.00m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 13.00 2020: 16.00 2021: 17.00 2022: 20.00 2023 20.00 FB Anthony Sherman: 4 years/$8.4m with $5.0m guaranteed and $2.4m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.90 2020: 2.00 2021: 2.20 2022: 2.30 RB Spencer Ware: 2 year/$3.0m with $500k roster bonuses in each year. Estimated Cap Hits: 2019: $1.40 2020: 1.60 Cuts SS Eric Berry: June 1 Designation Let Walk DE Allen Bailey, CB Orlando Scandrick, TE Demetrius Harris, FS Josh Shaw, RB Damien Williams, OC Mitch Morse, FS Ron Parker, WR De'Anthony Thomas, OLB Frank Zombo, CB Steven Nelson, ILB Terrence Smith, WR Chris Conley This put me at 5.72m in space for 2019 with the draft class signing... But only 1.93m in space for 2020. That's where I think a Houston extension with 2020 salary converted to a bonus similar to the deal Terrell Suggs got would be a win or the Chiefs would have to cut him. As well, they'd have to cut Sammy Watkins in all likelihood in order to give them cap to play with. Obviously I could not sign any street free agents and gain $10.8m for 2020. It's unlikely KC signs nobody. If I choose not to cut Berry, that space gets eaten up and then some. Basically, to keep Berry you're looking at no FAs and not re-signing Nelson if you want to keep Ford. So the question here is do you keep Ford or Berry or neither, assuming you want to keep Jones and Hill? You could choose not to extend Hill or Jones and then re-sign them in 2020 but you may not save money versus the extend now contract. I don't think you can go this offseason choosing to extend neither because you can't franchise them both.
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