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Two ways Smith stays:
1. He takes this team to the Superbowl, which would pretty much force their hand. 100% chance he is kept.
2. He goes for 65% comp, 4+k yards, 25+ tds, >10 INTs and leads the team to the AFC Championship game. About 70% chance he is kept.
Either of these scenarios happen and he'll get a multi-year extension to lower his cap number and keep him around longer. Mahomes gets the Rodgers treatment without the "will he won't he retire" dance.
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