Quote:
Originally Posted by Baby Lee
I honestly do not understand the line of thinking that Smith will lead us to 'mediocrity' in the particular sense that he'll get us to the playoffs, but not the SB.
We've established over the past generations that regular season and post season are two different animals.
We've established through Eli that spotty regular season QBs can rise to the occasion in the post season.
We've established through the likes of Romo and Peyton that awesome regular season QBs can and often do choke in the playoffs.
We've seen Smith pull off one of the great comebacks of recent playoff memory against the Saints and nearly make the SB against the Giants [sans an Armageddon of STs play].
I can understand regular season pessimism, I can even see pessimism that Smith can even get us to the playoffs, but if one concedes that he gets us there, there is woefully little evidence that a playoff flameout is a fait accompli, and there is certainly more evidence to the contrary.
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I think his UPSIDE is getting the Chiefs into the 10-6 range. Maybe. I'd put more likelihood on 7-8 wins this season.
As for what he can do once in the playoffs... QBs with Smith's characteristics (Risk-adverse, play-it-safe, rely on defense and running game) have not fared extremely well in the playoffs.
That's the big question with Smith... can he be coached to make MORE lower-percentage throws, and take MORE chances to move the sticks? Even as "well" as he played in San Fran the past two seasons, those were consistent issues with him. He won't do that stuff unless his back is to the wall.
Smith's "Great" comeback against the Saints was against a terrible defense. Credit to him for making plays, but that D was really bad. You can't count on facing a D that bad in the playoffs. And blame the STs all you want, but Smith was a significant factor in the 49ers failure against the Giants in the NFC championship game. His horribleness on 3rd down is exactly what I'm talking about in the previous paragraph.