Quote:
Originally Posted by DJay23
I just noticed this thread. I hadn't realized the sports card market was what it is until Adam Lefkoe mentioned it several weeks ago. I've since gotten into it. I like trying to speculate on rookie cards that I can turn for a profit down the road but that I also don't mind holding on to because i like the player.
I have created spread sheets for the cards I'm interested in and use that to determine whether I should be buying or selling. Right now I'm just getting in so its all buying but its fun to calculate average sales prices and then hunt for a bargain or look for the market on a card to sag.
So far I'm starting on ungraded cards. I study them as carefully as one can through pictures. I won't buy for example if pictures are blurry or if a picture cuts off one or more corners. Most times I won't buy if the pictures of the card are taken in sleeves and cases (unless I"m checking out a graded card). I also look for sellers who post pictures of each corner and different angles of the surfaces to show for blemishes. I'll only purchase if the sales price is around what I've calculated to the break even point for a psa 9. So I factor in PA sales tax, grading costs, postal insurance to ship it to a grader, shipping cost from the seller, shipping cost to the grading house. Generally most cards go for just a bit over what figure I come up with, but the hunt for a deal is a part of the fun for me.
Using this method I've landed 2 Mahomes Donruss 327 Rookies, a Zion Panini Mosaic 209 base, Zion Mosaic 265 Debut cards (Green and Orange variants), Panini Chronicles CEH Auto Patch/49, and a Salvy 2016 Diamond Kings Auto Patch/15 (which is more for sentimentality). I also grabbed a couple of Joe Burrow Base cards and took a flyer on a graded Cole McDonald. All but one of them look to be psa 9s at the very least, and if I'm right about that, I've effectively broken even. I just need to wait for them to increase in value (as I'm expecting those cards to do). I know, I know I've been warned already about buying raw cards expecting them to grade out, but I also know I'm not going to win every time I play the lottery either.
I'm still looking to grab a Mahomes Optic #177 rookie and a Zion Prizm #248. The value on both of those cards is shooting to the roof right now though. Gotta stay patient.
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vintagecardprices is your friend. They do the heavy lifting and do a pretty good job tracking realized sales prices from most major auction houses as well as Ebay for graded cards. To me, its the most accurate "price guide" there is, although its not going to filter out shill bidding, but thats its own monster.
My experience with chasing rookies is to guess which one will be picked up by the registry collectors as the official rookie and try to grab it before it gets hot. For example, I bought a bunch of Mahomes psa10 cards in 2017 when they were $10-$20 each. I sold all but one off at the end of 2018 and made a killing (sadly nothing like what it would have been if I were selling now though). I kept the silver Prizm once it was recognized as his official rookie for the key card sets. I think I gave somewhere around $15 for it, and the last one to sell on ebay just closed at $6200, and there is one right now with 5 days to go and its at $6400.