Quote:
Originally Posted by Halfcan
This is what all the naysayers said last year when I predicted Mahomes would put up numbers similar to Marino's second year. Mahomes surpassed it.
You can predict a 30% drop off in production all you want but I will never doubt Mahomes or underestimate him again.
Your prediction looks even worse when you factor in (hypothetically) that the new defense is going to get off the field more, giving the Offense more chances to score. So it turns into a 40% less production year for Mahomes.
Not going to happen.
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I get not doubting Mahomes or underestimating him. You also can't overestimate things either. If the defense does their job, the pace of the game is going to slow. So while the offense might theoretically get more chances, they're also not getting into shootouts that necessitate throwing the ball downfield as much.
When I said 35 TDs, I was being extremely conservative. He might throw 40 or even a few more. Even if he "only" threw 35, again that would likely lead the league many years.
If the defense improves, he's not going to throw 50 again. That's the point.