[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

Realistically?

Assuming he stays healthy, I expect Mahomes to top 5,000 passing yards.

In his first start, playing with scrubs against one of the best pass D's in the NFL, he put up 284 yards. Assuming that is an average game for him, he is already at 4,544 yards for the season. With scrubs. Against a good pass D.

To top 5,000 yards in a 16 game season, he would have to average 312 passing yards per game.

The question you have to ask yourself is whether or not you believe that Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce, and Kareem Hunt can contribute another 28 yards per game, on average, against typically lesser defenses.

Another way to think about it: Do you think that Mahomes, with those tools, can average about 26 passing yards per possession over the course of a season? Considering that he (so far) averages 8.11 yards per attempt, I think that over the course of a season, he can hit that mark with relative ease.

Originally Posted by Shag

You realize that a QB has only gone over 5k yards 9 times in NFL history, and only 5 different QBs have ever done it, right? That would be a monumental achievement for any QB, much less a first time starter.

Originally Posted by WhiteWhale

Sorry man, you can't say 'realistically' and then spend an entire post justifying a simple formula.

All you did was take a guy's first start and averaged it out over 16 games.

I'm not going average out a totally meaningless week 17 game against a 5-11 team that had given up and taken MOST of their defensive starters out by the start of the 3rd quarter over 16 games and then say 'realistic'.

Mahomes showed a lot, but c'mon. That's not a realistic way to think of anything. Even if you're right that's a terrible way to get to the conclusion.

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

13 QBs last year threw for over 3,500 yards. How many of those QBs had thetools that Mahomes will have at his disposal?

To say that Mahomes will throw for 3,500 yards is to say that he is, at best, a very, very average QB.....

Originally Posted by AssEaterChief

Or....a very very young QB who is managed very well by his experienced head coach.

I think most teams are going to force the Chiefs to run the ball....and Andy will take advantage of that.

Smart head coaches generally don't have their super young QB throwing the ball 35+ times a game.

Marino, Luck, and Manning are some of the few exceptions over the last 30 years...

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

You don't think Mahomes will put up an average of 59 more passing yards per game than Alex Smith?

Watkins averages 15.9 yds/catch
Hill averages 15.8
Kelce averages 12.7
Hunt averages 8.7

The Chiefs brass traded away Smith because they thought they could get more output from Mahomes; they doubled down on that bet by giving Watkins a big contract.

Its not just Mahomes; it is the weapons he has at his disposal. I think the Chiefs probably have the best set of offensive skill position players in the NFL.

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

Considering that across the NFL, teams have an average of 11.5 possessions per game, you're telling me that it is unrealistic to think that Mahomes will average 5 passing yards more per possession than Alex Smith?

I was (am) a big fan of Alex Smith, but the big difference between Mahomes and Smith is that Mahomes throws the ball *downfield*; he isn't looking for the dump-off, he is looking for the first down and more each and every time.

Originally Posted by WhiteWhale

You ****ing idiot, it's a fact that the LB's played almost every snap of that game but the DL and DB's didn't. That's reality. It has nothing to do with 'knowmo' or bronco fans. Jesus. Look up the snap counts and stop being offended by reality. Nobody is saying Mahomes was shit or that nothing he did mattered. I'm saying you can't just say "Well, now that he's had one start in week 17 against a 5-10 team that sat most of it's defensive starters in a meaningless game we can average that production out across his whole career!"

It's reeruned to average out 1 game against a 5-10 team playing a bunch of back ups in week 17. Do you disagree, or are you just being an asshole?

The fact that it was mostly Mahomes and back ups vs. Bronco back up DB's and DL only reinforces the point I"m making. The dynamics will be entirely different.

Christ this board is going full homer if I'm being called out for saying it probably isn't realistic to average a rookie's first start across an entire season (and adding selected stats on a whim). Will he also throw 0 TD's and 16 INT's? C'mon. I'm 100% on the kid's wagon, but I"m not going to predict a 5K 50 TD season. Sorry for being 'pessimistic'.

Originally Posted by AssEaterChief

I have a bad feeling this thread is going to get bumped next January for all the wrong reasons...