[gblowfish]

Friend of mine who's a huge baseball fantasy guy sent me this:

The Joe Sheehan Newsletter
Vol. 10, No. 6
February 26, 2018

Let’s kick off the week by picking a couple of non-contenders who have seen their 2017 rosters stripped, either through free agency or trades. These two teams will compete to be the worst in their respective circuits this season.

The Royals, at least, have 2015. In fact, the two-year ride, 2014 and 2015, was as much fun as you can have as a baseball fan. This was a mostly homegrown team, one playing a style that went against the modern grain in the regular season, then busting out some well-timed big flies in the postseason. They won dramatically, they won often, and in the end, they won the last game of the season. The threat of 2018 was always on the horizon, but if you’re a Royals fan -- I may know one -- flags fly forever, and Eric Hosmer is always safe at home.

The Royals lost their top two players by bWAR, Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain, to free agency. (Their #9, Mike Moustakas, is also unlikely to return.) They return just three players who produced at least two bWAR for them last year: Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez, and Danny Duffy. It’s not as if they have a lot of internal replacements raring to go, either; the Royals didn’t have a single player in Baseball America’s 2018 top 100 prospects. Playing time is available for some of the failed projects of recent seasons, such as Jorge Soler and Adalberto Mondesi and Paulo Orlando. Nathan Karns might be healthy. Alcides Escobar was brought back. This is how you end up gazing upon Michael Saunders in late February and thinking, “Sure, why not?”

There are reasons to watch. I had Mondesi on my Rotowire “Picks” list, although his path to an everyday job is now unclear. Duffy, when healthy, can look like a #1 starter; then again, he’s 29 now and has qualified for an ERA title once in his career. All in all, though, this looks like a bad baseball team, no longer good defensively, no longer great at making contact, no longer loaded with dominant relief pitching. Mostly, this looks like the morning after the party. It sure was a hell of a party, though.

2B-R Merrifield
RF-R Bonifacio
C-R Perez
LF-L Gordon
DH-R Soler
CF-L Saunders
3B-R Cuthbert
1B-R Dozier
SS-R Escobar

I’m openly guessing on the corners. Hunter Dozier was the eighth overall pick in the 2013 draft, and he has hit .282/.349/.499 in parts of two seasons at Triple-A. Dozier missed almost all of last year with assorted injuries, and the “1B” up there is wishcasting a bit: he has 35 career innings at the cold corner.

This team should have the worst OBP in the league. Then again, they’ll make up for it with a lack of power and some low-percentage basestealing (returning Royals were just 54-for-78 stealing last year).

Bench-B Burns (OF)
Bench-L Goins (IF)
Bench-R Butera (C)

As little as Ned Yost uses his bench, and as few innings his 2018 team projects to get from its starting pitching, the Royals will carry 12 position players most of the time. I’d like to see Billy Burns, who is now 28, get one last shot at a regular job. He’s a generation late, but he’s 110% of the player Terrence Gore is. Or maybe 90% of Billy Hamilton. I may need a better sell job. Ramon Torres’s great contact rates -- his entire skill set -- betrayed him at Triple-A and in the majors, so he’s not someone to worry about now.

SP-L Duffy
SP-R Kennedy
SP-R Hammel
SP-R Junis
SP-R Karns

Ian Kennedy declined to opt out of his deal, which isn’t the end of the world for the Royals. Someone has to pitch, and Kennedy’s primary skill at this point is his ability to take the ball.

The Royals may use a dozen or more starting pitchers this year. I’ve liked Jesse Hahn for a while, and this could be his last shot at a career. I might take a peek at Trevor Oaks, who was the prize in the Scott Alexander three-way trade. The next crop of real prospects is a long way off.

RP-R Herrera
RP-R Maurer
RP-L Flynn
RP-R Peralta
RP-R McCarthy
RP-R Almonte
RP-R Smith
RP-R Keller

By trading Alexander just to get Joakim Soria off the payroll, the Royals gave away the game. It’s all about payroll reduction now, so look for Herrera to be offered around the first time he goes three nights without allowing a run or leaving the game holding his arm. Wily Peralta isn’t going to be the next Wade Davis; then again, the Royals didn’t trade Wil Myers for him. There’s some chance Peralta is the next exciting starter-to-reliever conversion project.

The Royals nabbed two pitchers in the Rule 5 draft. I can’t see both Burch Smith -- who was in the majors back in 2013 -- and Brad Keller sticking, but if you’re going to try that, this is the year to do so, when the record doesn’t matter.

(Then he talks about the Marlins sucking it this year)