Quote:
Originally Posted by O.city
Because in that situation, the statistics lead to a wrong decision.
QB is still a multiplier. If you can get a great one like manning, the chance you have to take and the picks you have to give up are worth it.
This is speaking of qbs though, in terms of other picks, it wouldn't matter.
But again, trading down takes 2 to tango, so it isn't always as simple as saying "I want to trade down".
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You're right, it does take two to tango. Sometimes you can't trade out of a pick, that doesn't mean that you wouldn't have been better off if you could.
You keep pointing out to context vs stats. Stats suggest that no GM is smart enough to pick out the context. Example Eli Manning. Context at the time said he was the next Peyton. He's a solid QB, but certainly not Peyton. Now look at what he was traded for:
Philip Rivers, Shawne Merriman and Nate Kaeding.
No question in my mind that SD came out ahead with this deal. Manning might be slightly better than Rivers...might...but the rest of the trade goes to SD.
Instead of trading up the Giants could have stayed put and gotten Big Ben.
If you look at every trade ever made in the 1st round in the history of the NFL you will find that the majority of the "winners" were the ones trading down.
That nullifies the value of the GM's smarts.