Quote:
Originally Posted by redshirt32
Put me in there as trading down as well, we should have a decent pick if we are looking for DT, and most of the OT are projected as moving to OG anyway.
If we cannot land one of top 3 WOs there is not going to be much of a difference maker at 18th spot we can about the same 4 to 5 picks later.
If I am the GM I would be talking up some players RBs WOs, pash rushers that fall within 18th spot and hope we can hook in team for a extra 3rd draft pick.
That would give us say 4 picks in the top 100 players to chose off the big board OL/DB/DT/WO/.
Pray same teams has their hooks on some player and will take him at 18th.
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From a statistical and analytical standpoint, it is better to trade down in the 1st round. My understanding is that no matter how sure you are that this guy is going to be the next Jerry Rice or Reggie White or Joe Montana, odds are you're wrong and better served by getting extra picks and spreading your risk.
Most GMs don't believe it though. They have too much confidence in their ability to pick players to do this. New England is the only team that appears to do this on a somewhat regular basis (as far as I have noticed)...hasn't worked out too badly for them.
I remember reading about this a while back. It occurs to me that this might work for the first round, but I'm sure there are diminishing returns and a point where you might even want to start trading up.