QB Impressions
 

First glances at several QBs we're going to give a shit about over the next four months. Feel free to set me straight.

DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame
6'4", 230 lbs
26-9 TD-INT, 59%, 2925 passing yards

I get a Cutlerian vibe from this guy. Seems to be built like a franchise QB. Powerful arm, some beautiful passes, perfect bodytype. But he is lacking an "it" factor, is he not? He's not a world-beating, overcome-the-odds, particularly spiriting QB. Looks like he could have an okay career in the NFL in which he wins nothing of consequence.

Mitch Trubisky, North Carolina
6'3", 220 lbs
30-6 TD-INT, 69%, 3748 passing yards

Well if there was one Andy Reid QB in this entire draft, it's Trubisky, isn't it? Super accurate, doesn't take too many risks with the ball, is very mentally tough and very athletic. He's a slam dunk for the Chiefs to trade up for, if he lasts to the 20s, but in a QB-starved NFL with at least 6 new head coaches looking for their QB, there's no chance he lasts to us.

Davis Webb, California
6'5", 230 lbs
37-12 TD-INT, 62%, 4295 passing yards

Classic boom-or-bust guy. I am not a huge fan of the Air Raid passing offenses, in general, I think they basically require from-the-ground-up development. Two things Webb has going for him, aside from the fact that the NFL is desperately QB thirsty, is that he's got a great physical frame and does truly throw a beautiful ball. I don't know enough about him to determine whether he's worth the developmental time, however, and can make the pro-style transition.

DeShaun Watson, Clemson
6'2", 205 lbs
37-15 TD-INT, 68%, 3914 passing yards

I get really excited about this guy despite his several flaws as a prospect, but I see something here that can be coached up. The stuff you can't coach -- his toughness, his leadership, his intelligence, his ability to play big in the biggest games -- he's got in spades. His fundamentals look like they're going to need a complete retooling in the NFL, however -- something he'd probably embrace. I don't know if a low-first is the right price for him, but I bet a year or two redshirting behind Alex Smith could prove valuable.

Pat Mahomes, Texas Tech
6'3", 220 lbs
41-10 TD-INT, 66%, 5052 passing yards

The more I watch this guy, the more I'm convinced this is a classic Andy Reid QB. I just shit on the Air Raid offense, but man, watch this guy play. He puts up ridiculous numbers with on-point passing (rarely does he test an NFL passing window, however). His athleticism looks good, his passes look great, his size is good. First impression, I'd be willing to burn a 2nd on this guy.

Brad Kaaya, Miami
6'4", 210 lbs
27-7 TD-INT, 62%, 3532 passing yards

I see a little Trent Green upside in Kaaya; a QB who, when his shitty OL isn't imploding on him, can make some surgical strikes. But there are waaaaay too many flags here. His arm isn't very strong. He's a statue. He goes full Damon Huard in the face of pressure. Reports are that he isn't that good of a dude in the locker room either. Third day pick, if that.

Chad Kelly, Ole Miss

So... Johnny Manzel, 2.0, amiright? Minus the playmaking ability in big games. Would not draft.

Pretty accurate. I'm not in love with any of these guys. I'd prefer the Chiefs go get a guy in 2018, because that class is STRONG.

And when i say "go get a guy" I mean move some picks to do it. Trade 2017 picks for 2018 picks. Prepare for the eventuality that your QB is on the wrong side of 30.

My general feeling on the 2017 QB class is you have a small chance to get a decent player, and no chance to get a great player. Wait.

Will I complain if they take someone in 2017? No, because in general I trust Reid 'n Dorsey. But most everyone seems to think 2018 is stronger.

Also Trubisky completely soured me during his Bowl game. Do not want. As for Mahomes, i would be shocked if a good QB ever came out of that school. The best TTU QB of all time (in NFL terms) is Billy Joe ****ing Tolliver.

One thing about Kizer: I think Notre Dame was so much of a shitshow, overrated program that he could have some untapped potential in a more stable environment. I like his talent the most out of all these guys.

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State
6'5", 235 lbs
28-4 TD-INT, 63%, 4091 passing yards

Now Rudolph is where the draftniks separate themselves from the layperson who is more casual about this. His size and his numbers are great, but he is a pure product of that wide open spread they play in Clearwater. I've seen this guy play -- his mechanics are horrendous. He never makes reads, all his plays are basically one-looks. His passes are terrible -- he's benefitted from rarely having to hit an NFL-caliber window and having really good receivers. I would probably try out Rudolph as a UDFA, but I really hate him as a prospect.

The Chiefs have quite a few needs and should be using what they got for 17 to fill holes and move around in that draft.

They aren't going to bad enough next season to be in position to tap the better talent at top for 18. As for this class, its grim at top but I like the potential afterwards if you're not looking for an immediate starter. There are multiple QB's that I think would fit.

Picked this kid too

Holy shit! Brad Kaaya' mom is the "bye Felicia!" girl from Friday. Hot damn that's hillarious

Hey, looking ahead a year, what do you think of Baker Mayfield?

Fantastic athlete.
Will not pan out as a qb in the NFL. Think Terelle Pryor. Mahomes stays in the pocket for on average of 1.5 seconds on any given pass play. Looks to run/scramble at the first sign of pressure. The NFL will beat that out of him.

That's why he needs to sit for at least a year, if not two, to learn how to play QB in the NFL.

This is a common problem and will only continue to get worse as nearly every college is running an Air Raid type of offense.

I think Bob Stoops, OU and anything associated with that pack of morally bankrupt assholes is free to go **** itself.

Just read an article that said that his dad was arrested for public intoxication at one of the games...sounds like he'd be an interesting cat to have stumbling around Arrowhead.

I love watching this kid play.

Undersized, somewhat lacking in arm strength and I don't think he sees the field that well.

Still worth a Day 3 pick if you're looking for a possible decent back up.

In the right offense, I think Mayfield could excel. I like him a lot.

That offense, however, is not Andy Reid's.

Reid depends on an efficient, quick-release, multiple-read system.

Mayfield is a good enough athlete, though.

What makes you say that?

Jake Browning! Watched this guy all through high school. Looking forward to following him in the NFL.

Yeah....

This is good.

But they are no Tyler Bray.

#saynotonoodlearms


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

He's staying in school so that you can watch him suck again next year. Enjoy it.

Mahomes is presently my favorite combination of skills and attainability.

Trubisky is a slightly safer bet, IMO and Kizer has a little higher ceiling, but I think Mahomes is nearly as talented as both, not nearly as risky as Watson, and most of all, could potentially be had.

So as of right now, I'm hopping aboard the Mahomes train (but no, Tribal - he is not John Elway ;) )

I say we stand pat this year and go after Sam Darnold next year.

I say we stand pat for another 100 years.

I think Kelly is going to be the best QB out of this draft, and would be absolutely perfect for Reid's offense.

Sit him a year and he's a franchise QB with the right coaching IMO. Sitting behind Smith would be the perfect scenario for this guy. He's a gun slinger with a huge arm and great wheels. If he modeled his play after Smith he could throw for 4000 and run for 800.
He wouldn't play scared like smith, but if he could learn to be safe with the ball and take off when things break down he could be a nightmare for defenses.

If Chad Kelly were not such a shithead I'd be all for this.
I just don't think this guy values football enough. Stupid decision after stupid decision with this kid.

Patterned behaviour.

He is passionate about football, no doubt about it.

He needs mentoring. And this staff could give it to him.

We've gotten guys like Peters, and Hill by giving guys a shot and monitoring them.

I really think this guy could be a super star in this offense.

Not to mention we could get him with our late 2nd.
Probably a lot later, but I wouldn't **** around. I'd actually trade up in the 2nd. Teams aren't going to overlook what he did to Alabama and LSU and the defenses they fielded.

DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame


Love this kid compared to jameis Winston . Arm Strength can make the big plays against I think against Texas he led a 4th and seven in sure defeat to a comeback victory. All the intangibles . I too think Norte dame was a shit show this year. Not sure if he lasts long in the draft but if he's mid teens or in early twenties I trade up for him.

Because Direckshun doesn't watch the games. He watches highlight videos and reads articles.

Which of these guys has that off-field fire?..Which one will get with his wr's, te's, backs and oline on the sideline if somebody dropped a pass or missed a block?

Which one will talk to the defense and tell em he needs a stop? Which one is an emotional leader? Which one raises the level of those around him instead of needing them to raise his? ...That's what separates a Derek Carr or Tom Brady from the rest of the pack. No more quiet types...no more Alex Smiths. Chiefs need some fire at QB

This is a really nice breakdown of Mahomes. I just don't see him as a first or second day pick and I see more bad than good.

http://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com...le-edged-sword

Someone fixes the kids footwork, by and large his biggest issue, look out. He'll learn with more experience the type of things he can't force.

His footwork reminds me of Manzel's. He always throws off his back foot when throwing deep. Even in the clips where he does something well in the article. I think it will scare most off.

Dismissed from Clemson after a squabble with coaches in 2014. Had to go the JC route.

Arrested outside a Buffalo bar after threatening to “get my AK-47 and spray this place” after he was thrown out and subsequently got into an altercation with police upon his arrest (he pleaded guilty to disorderly conduct and was sentenced to a conditional discharge that included community service).

Ran onto the field in Buffalo to fight high school students.

DM'd porn star Mia Khalifa repeatedly, even after she shamed him publicly.

Had his second ACL tear to end his 2016 season.

Posted it in another thread but this belongs here my thoughts on Watson.

I gotta be honest guys I'm a born Alabama fan and what I've seen from Watson last two years was remarkable. I saw two years ago an overmatched Clemson team play toe to toe with one of the best Bama teams of alll time. Watson just kept bringing his team back time and time again. I saw this year a QB play one of the worst halfs of football I've ever seen. I watched him come back with such amazing poise and leadership that I msgd my friends and said Bama is gonna lose because of him.


Now to the detractors yes he overthrew and under threw receivers, but the kid was on the sidelines rallying his team.

Those that have known me over the years know I was screaming for us to take russel Wilson based on what I saw against Bama when he played for NC State. All I heard was he's too short he misses passes etc now look at him.

Gentleman and ladies the combine and tape can show you stats and highlights but the one thing it can't judge is leadership ability and Watson has this. I have no doubt if we got him we would solve our needs. Sorry for long post but felt like I needed to say something bout this subject.

Mayock was on the Ross Tucker podcast and wasn't too enthused with this years QB class.

Says that right now he doesn't see any for sure franchise QB's and he doesn't think any of them are worthy of a top 10 pick.

Mentioned that Browns fans should feel frustrated after passing on Carson Wentz last year because there isn't a QB worth taking at 1 or 12.

Likes some of the tools that Trebisky has, but just can't get over the fact that he was a one year starter who couldn't beat out Marquise Williams.

Said he'd be scared to the death to draft a QB in the top 10 this year.

Also talked about Kizer (highest ceiling), Watson (poor decision making/accuracy), Nate Peterman (some people compare to Cousins, Mayock doesn't know if he's an NFL starter), Mahomes (doesn't play within the offense, gunslinger who's fun to watch)

Mayock's segment starts at 15:08

<iframe src="http://www.podcastone.com/embed?progID=796&pid=1706778" width="300" height="696" frameborder="0" ></iframe>

Let Kizer fall. Let it ****ing happen.

I will take this all day...having a QB who is "fun" to watch.

I want no part of Watson...

He seems like a good kid, but I just have an internal sense that he's going to be rg3 part deaux (meaning he'll have an encouraging rookie season, and then slowly fade away into the what ifs)

But hey, I'm rooting for the kid...

Just not as a chief

Mahomes however; I would be willing to roll the dice with

Every mock I have seen by the top analysts Trubisky, Mahomes and Kizer all go in the top 13.

McShay's recent mock doesn't have Kizer nor Mahomes in round 1. Watson at 2 and Trubisky at 12.

Kiper also only had Watson and Trubisky in round 1 in his first mock back on Jan 19.

Jeremiah has Watson at 10 and Trubisky at 23, no others in round 1.

Brooks has Trubisky at 2 and Watson at 27, no others in round 1.

Zierlein has Trubisky at 2 and Watson at 10, no others in round 1.

Reuter has Watson at 1, Trubisky at 3, and Kizer at 6.

Burke of SI has Watson at 2, Trubisky at 6, Kizer at 12, and Mahomes at 25.

Cherepinsky has Trubisky at 3, Kizer at 10, Watson at 23, and Mahomes at 25.

Rang has Trubisky at 2, Watson at 6, and Kizer at 12.

Brugler has Trubisky at 2, Kizer at 3, and Watson at 10.


I'm not seeing a trend that Mahomes and Kizer are ending up in the top 13....

From Albert Breer's MMQB column...

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/02/10/n...pects-notebook

"But this is a bad year for qbs" says every chiefs fan every year.

https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/lists...cally-superior


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'm not saying Watson is Manziel. I'm saying that's not enough reason to take him.

I'll watch that happen. Then I'll watch KC pass. Then I'll watch your head explode. I'll help pick up the pieces bud. :D

Can you just post the results because **** ****ing assholes that do slideshows to up view count. **** them in the ass.

If true I don't care if he has the upside of Aaron Rogers. Pass.

QB Impressions
 

Which Quarterback From the 2017 Draft Class Is Statistically Superior?

What We're Looking For

In that aforementioned piece that looked at how collegiate numbers translate to the NFL, three statistics shined through as being relevant when looking at quarterbacks: the number of games they played (based on games in which the passer had at least 10 attempts), adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A, which includes both touchdowns and interceptions to get a measure of efficiency), and passer efficiency rating. These three will be the main focuses in looking at this crop of newcomers.

To determine which quarterbacks would be classified as "successful," we used numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP), the metric we use to track how many expected points a player adds to his team's total throughout the course of the season. Specifically, we looked at where a player ranked in Total NEP (which accounts for points added as a rusher, as well) in each season he had at least 200 drop backs. By seeing how often a player finishes as a top-15 or top-10 passer in this metric, we can see if he's a guy we'd want leading our franchise each and every year.

Let's give a quick example here. The table below splits all quarterbacks taken in the first round from 1995 through 2014 into two groups: those who had at least one season in the top 10 in Total NEP and those who never finished that high. "Pick" refers to where that player was selected in the draft, and both AY/A and passer efficiency rating are from the player's final season in college.

Any Top-10 FinishesPickGames Pass. Eff. Rat. AY/A

Top-10: 6.2137.37 156.6 9.1
Non-Top 10: 12.2631.58 152.9 8.7

The players who had at least one top-10 finish to their credit averaged 37.37 games in college before going pro; those who were never in the top 10 averaged just 31.58.

That would seem to be important.

In setting a baseline for a franchise quarterback, we looked at players who had finished in the top 10 in Total NEP in at least one third of their seasons. After including 2016's metrics (and omitting players from the last two draft classes due to a lack of an adequate sample), only 13 of 50 first-round quarterbacks met this criteria. Here's how their stats compared to the other 37.

One Third of Seasons in Top 10PickGamesPass Eff RatAY/A

Yes: 6.3139.00162.4 9.4
No: 11.2431.95151.5 8.6

As you can see, there's a big split in each of our three desired stats between those who qualified and those who did not. This helps us form a blueprint of what we want in a quarterback as he enters the NFL draft.

If a quarterback doesn't have at least around 36 games under his belt (roughly three years as a starter), it's justified to be skeptical. Players beneath that range have busted much more often than their more experienced counterparts, and you can bet that'll be a big topic of discussion with this year's class.

As for the passer efficiency rating and AY/A, the ideal ranges are around 160 and 9.2, respectively. This year's crop can be competitive in these arenas, but there is no Marcus Mariota-level efficiency savant in the field.

It's worth noting that draft capital had a much larger effect on predicting which players would pan out, meaning scouts are pretty good at what they do. If they deem a player with great collegiate stats to be a third-round pick, then we should be wary of getting too excited about him. However, if we're focusing just on the stats, here's how these top five rank heading into the draft process.

Page 2 of 6 continued






1. Brad Kaaya, Miami

Games Played: 38 | Passer Efficiency Rating: 150.3 | AY/A: 8.9

Top Statistical Comp: Byron Leftwich

Brad Kaaya's reputation with scouts doesn't seem to be overly rosy as Kiper listed him fifth among these players. But when it comes to statistics, he's the closest we've got to fitting the blueprint.

The big thing working in Kaaya's favor is his number of games played. As you'll recall, we're looking for guys with around 36 games played, and he's the only guy in this class who exceeds that number. In this department, Kaaya is solid. His efficiency, though, leaves something to be desired.

Kaaya's passer efficiency rating ranks fourth of our five quarterbacks. If we combine this group of five with the 55 other first-round pick quarterbacks since 1995, Kaaya ranks just 39th. It's also right in the range where we saw busts in the previous slide.

His AY/A is a bit more favorable, sitting 31st in this group of 60 and third among the incoming quarterbacks. However, it still falls a bit short of what we're looking for. You can see why this draft class presents a dilemma: the only guy with the requisite level of experience had mediocre efficiency. It's hard to get too excited about any of the crop.

There is a bit of a saving grace, though, for Kaaya in that he plays in the ACC. This is the same conference as both Trubisky and Watson, meaning we can check out how they each fared when facing common opponents. Kaaya and Trubisky faced seven common teams this year, and here's how they performed in those contests.

Against Common OpponentsAttemptsYardsTouchdownsInterceptionsAY/A

Brad Kaaya: 2382,0441539.28
Mitch Trubisky: 2512,1321849.21

And here's how Kaaya compared against five common opponents to Watson.

Against Common OpponentsAttemptsYardsTouchdownsInterceptionsAY/A

Brad Kaaya: 1741,420928.68
DeShaun Watson: 2471,9281287.32

If you're looking at raw yardage, you're not going to be Kaaya's biggest fan. However, he did get more bang for his buck thanks to a higher yards per attempt and AY/A while successfully avoiding interceptions. He had higher efficiency than both of these guys while facing the same defenses, and he tops both in games played. That's a glimmer of hope.

Kaaya's basic draft profile is this: gobs of experience without overwhelming efficiency. How does that fit into the mold? We can take a peak by looking at quarterbacks with a similar profile coming out.

Of the past 55 quarterbacks selected in the first round, 23 of them had started between 34 and 42 games (four games in each direction from Kaaya). Two of those had an AY/A near Kaaya's. Here's a look at Kaaya's profile side by side with theirs.

QuarterbackGamesPass. Eff. RatAY/A

Byron Leftwich: 36 156.59
Brad Kaaya: 38 150.38.9
Blake Bortles: 34 163.48.8

This is why Leftwich wound up being Kaaya's top comp as they're relatively close across the board. Blake Bortles is far from being a flattering second choice, never finishing higher than 19th in Total NEP in his three qualified seasons, including a 28th-place finish this year.

The positive of Kaaya is that his questions will likely come at a discount. Because he's held in much lower regard, he'll likely wind up being available on either the second or third day of the draft, so the costs of potential shortcomings are less extreme. He has the experience you want, and his efficiency was above that of both Trubisky and Watson against common opponents. That should be enough to justify a gamble later on, even if he's far from being a surefire stud.



2. Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech

Games Played: 30 | Passer Efficiency Rating: 157.0 | AY/A: 9.2

Top Statistical Comp: Steve McNair

If we were judging this based just on collegiate efficiency, then Patrick Mahomes would hold the top spot. He had the best AY/A in the class, and his passer efficiency rating was second by a hair. With the discrepancy between Kaaya and Mahomes in games played, though, Mahomes slides down to a respectable second.

Mahomes took big strides between his 2015 sophomore season and last year in limiting interceptions, something that helped vault him to the top of this list. He threw 15 picks as a sophomore, leading the Big 12, but he cut that to 10 this year despite adding 18 more total attempts. When you couple that with a gaudy 41 touchdowns, it's easy to see how his AY/A got so meaty.

This isn't to say he cowers over previous first-round picks, though. Going back to our group of 60 candidates, Mahomes ranks 26th in AY/A and 29th in passer efficiency rating. This is all while starting for just two-plus seasons, limiting him to 30 games played. Even the elite in this class bring some serious questions.

Whenever Mahomes' name is brought up this draft season, you can bet someone will make mention of his playing in the Big 12. This isn't a conference known for stellar defense, potentially tainting his efficiency stats. Looking back at how past Big 12 first-round picks have fared likely won't help his case.

Since 1995, there have been seven quarterbacks from the Big 12 drafted in the first round. Here's a look at how they've fared in the NFL through the eyes of NEP, again focusing on top-15 seasons in years in which they had at least 200 drop backs.

Quarterback School Top-15 NEP Seasons Qualified Seasons

Robert Griffin III Baylor 1 3
Sam Bradford Oklahoma 1 6
Vince Young Texas 1 3
Brandon Weeden Oklahoma State 0 2
Josh Freeman Kansas State 1 4
Ryan Tannehill Texas A&M 1 5
Blaine Gabbert Missouri 0 3

In 26 qualified seasons, former Big 12 quarterbacks have finished in the top 15 in Total NEP just five times. Sam Bradford didn't get his first top-15 finish until this year. You can bet Mahomes is going to hear about this, whether it's fair or not.

Perhaps it's fitting, then, that Mahomes' top comp is the late Steve McNair, who played his college ball at Alcorn State, which was -- at the time -- Division I-AA. His stats there weren't anything otherworldly, either, and he and Mahomes line up well across the board.

Quarterback Games Pass. Eff. Rat. AY/A

Steve McNair: 33 155.4 9.0
Patrick Mahomes: 30 157.0 9.2

McNair was a tremendous NFL player despite putting up just decent stats against lower-level competition in college; it's probably not right to write off Mahomes simply because he played in an offensive-minded conference.

Mahomes is similar to Kaaya in that he's not likely to cost a team a first-round pick. That makes any warts and worries he may present less frightening. He showed some reasons for excitement when he was at Texas Tech, and it would seem fully justifiable to target him at some point beyond the first round.






3. DeShaun Watson, Clemson

Games Played: 34 | Passer Efficiency Rating: 151.1 | AY/A: 8.0

Top Statistical Comp: E.J. Manuel

If it weren't for all of those gosh-darn interceptions, DeShaun Watson could be really freaking good. But, alas, here we are.

Watson is similar to Kaaya in a lot of ways. They both are around the experience levels we want -- and for Watson, it's high-leverage experience with two National Championship Game trips -- but depressed efficiency. Watson has the added bonus that scouts seem to hold him in higher regard, potentially stirring a bit of optimism for him as a pro.

Even though both Kaaya and Watson struggled a little with their efficiency, Kaaya was still a solid step ahead. You saw their marks against common opponents earlier, and here's their full-season stats for comparison.

Quarterback Games Pass. Eff. Rat. AY/A
Brad Kaaya: 38 150.3 8.9
DeShaun Watson: 34 151.1 8.0

Throwing interceptions is a great way to sink your AY/A, and that was the efficiency stat that best predicted future success. That's the reason for the big split between these two.

Before you blame level of competition with Watson having to play in the College Football Playoff, remember that our comparison of Kaaya and Watson against common opponents also favored Kaaya. Add in four additional games of experience, and having Kaaya ahead of Watson would seem to be the way to go.

In reality, though, Watson doesn't need to compete with Kaaya. His true competition is likely Trubisky as they're the two quarterbacks most commonly found in the first round of mock drafts. So let's do the same thing and compare those two against common opponents. There were five overlap matches for the two, and Watson's fatal flaw shined through again.

QuarterbackAttemptsYardsTouchdownsInterceptionsAY/A

DeShaun Watson: 2471,9281287.32
Mitch Trubisky: 1871,5251228.96

Watson threw at least one interception in each game; Trubisky only did so in one game, tossing a pair of picks against Virginia Tech while playing in remnants of Hurricane Matthew. This doesn't make up for the enormous gap in experience between the two, but it helps explain the skepticism around Watson despite his resume.

Although Watson's top comp is E.J. Manuel, that's a bit of an incomplete pairing. It's Watson's statistical profile as a passer that puts him with Manuel. Manuel was nowhere near the athlete that Watson was rushing the ball, and it's something that should serve Watson well at the next level. So while the two sit near each other in passing efficiency, we shouldn't simply assume that Watson will be a failure at the next level like Manuel has been thus far.

Perhaps a more apt comparison for Watson would be Jameis Winston. Watson played more games than Winston in college and had better efficiency stats, so they don't mesh well for this endeavor, but Winston was another guy who struggled with interceptions in college. Unfortunately, they've followed him to the NFL.

Over the past two seasons, 37 quarterbacks have at least 300 pass attempts. Only two (Peyton Manning and Ryan Fitzpatrick) have higher interception rates than Winston's 2.99% clip. Winston has still managed to be a top-15 passer in Total NEP each of his first two years, but it doesn't inspire hope that Watson will simply brush aside his propensity for picks in the pros.

With Kaaya and Mahomes, teams will probably have the luxury of acquiring them later in the draft. That might not be the case with Watson. There are enough reasons to like him if he winds up falling, but as a potential top-15 pick, there may be too many statistical red flags to buy into the upside.




4. Mitch Trubisky, North Carolina

Games Played: 18 | Passer Efficiency Rating: 157.9 | AY/A: 9.1

Top Statistical Comp: Mark Sanchez

Oh boy. If you're talking red flags, and you don't bring up Mitch Trubisky's lack of experience, you're doing it all wrong.

Trubisky enters the NFL draft with just 13 career starts and an additional five games in which he had at least 10 pass attempts. His 18 qualified games rank 59th out of our aforementioned group of 60.

The only guy he beats is -- you guessed it -- Mark Sanchez.

Sanchez -- like Trubisky -- left school after just one full season as the starter. None of his five qualified NFL seasons have resulted in top-15 finishes in Total NEP, and he finished the season as the number three quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys. Unfortunately for Trubisky, the two have more in common than just their lack of experience.

PlayerGamesPass. Eff. Rat.AY/A

Mitch Trubisky: 18 157.9 9.1
Mark Sanchez: 16 164.6 8.8

Trubisky's AY/A -- the more important statistic -- was higher than Sanchez's, but Sanchez edged him in passer efficiency rating. Sanchez's collegiate stats were on par with Trubisky's, he was the fifth overall pick, and he still flamed out. We shouldn't use one example to condemn all who follow, but this is flat out scary.

Sanchez isn't the only example we have of players with limited experience and decent efficiency. There have been four quarterbacks who have played 25 or fewer games, had an AY/A of at least 9.0, and wound up as first-round picks. Here's that list with their stats alongside Trubisky's.

QuarterbackGamesPass. Eff. Rat.AY/A

David Carr: 25 165.9 10
Johnny Manziel: 25 172.9 10
Akili Smith: 22 167.3 10.9
Alex Smith: 22 176.5 10.8
Mitch Trubisky: 18 157.9 9.1

Those players have a combined 16 qualified seasons, and they have turned those into three top-15 seasons (one by David Carr and two by Alex Smith).

Carr, Alex Smith, and Akili Smith also had the draft pedigree that we look for, but none wound up being a superstar, all while having superior college efficiency stats to Trubisky. This is alarming for a guy who will likely also be a high-end pick.

In our sampling of 60, Trubisky ranks 26th in passer efficiency rating and 28th in AY/A despite ranking first and second, respectively, of this year's class. Historically, his efficiency metrics are nothing amazing, and his lack of experience is tied to a string of busts. If he had gone back to school for another season and beefed things up, it'd be easier to understand the hype, but as it stands right now, Trubisky is frightening.

A team will likely wind up rolling the dice early on Trubisky. That leaves them vulnerable if he winds up crashing and burning. Based on what he offers statistically, they are inheriting a ton of risk here, and there is no guarantee the pick pans out. It seems like the best strategy would be to wait on the position and snag one of the other options at a discount.




5. DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame

Games Played: 24 | Passer Efficiency Rating: 145.6 | AY/A: 8.4

Top Statistical Comp: Joe Flacco

Given what happened at Notre Dame this year, DeShone Kizer likely did the right thing in getting the heck up outta Dodge. They finished 4-8, and Kizer even got benched for Malik Zaire in one of the games. Nobody should blame him for leaving early.

Unfortunately, it left his statistical profile entirely uninspiring.

Kizer enters the NFL draft with just 24 games under his belt, putting him well below our desired threshold in that category. In our group of 60, his mark ranks 52nd. Again, it's easy to understand why he left, but it really puts him in a tight spot with regards to experience.

All of this is while simultaneously having unsatisfactory efficiency stats. Among the top five incoming quarterbacks, he ranks last in passer efficiency rating and fourth in AY/A, besting just Watson there. If we expand it to all 60 names again, Kizer is 44th in passer efficiency rating and 46th in AY/A. Each of the other four players on our list had either experience or efficiency, but Kizer appears to have neither.

A quick glance at Kizer's game logs might lead you to believe that his season picked up after the benching during the Stanford game. Over their final five games, Kizer threw 12 touchdowns to 2 interceptions, protecting the ball better than he did initially. However, that can be a bit misleading when you view the wider scope of what he did before and after the benching.

SplitAttemptsYardsTouchdownsInterceptionsAY/A

Before Benching: 203 1,775 14 7 8.6
After Benching: 158 1,150 12 2 8.2

Even though his touchdown-to-interception ratio was better, his AY/A shot down as the team seemed to shift to a more conservative passing attack. He went from averaging 8.74 yards per attempt the first part of the season to just 7.28 after the benching. The result was a disappointing overall season.

Kizer's top comp -- Joe Flacco -- appears to be elite, but Flacco is, not shockingly, far from an efficiency stud in the NFL. He has never finished in the top 10 in Total NEP through nine seasons, and he has been outside the top 15 five times. Flacco's rate stats at Delaware were never tremendous, so although the comp has name value, it's not necessarily a big boon for Kizer.

It's hard to separate a player from a situation, and that's an important distinction to make for Kizer. If a team goes 4-8, they've got more problems than just their quarterback, and we shouldn't punish Kizer for their struggles. However, based on the information we have, Kizer appears to be highly flawed in both experience and efficiency, and that will make his selection a risky one on draf


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

thanks!

If Mahomes projects to a Steve McNair, sign me up.

Mahommes is already getting first pubs grades in the scouting community. There's even reports that he might not get out of the first rd and the combine hasn't even happened yet.

He's going to go in the mid first IMO. I think Kizer or Watson (if he struggles in Indy) will be the one to fall in our range.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This Patrick Mahomes is a treat to watch ..2 angles- smacked in face vs Cov 0- somehow gets ball in right vicinity..gunslinger with gut feel <a href="https://t.co/myJh8n6TVP">pic.twitter.com/myJh8n6TVP</a></p>&mdash; Mike Mayock (@MikeMayock) <a href="https://twitter.com/MikeMayock/status/831141382056189952">February 13, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">TCU frustrated mahomes...lot of 3 man pressure forcing him to be patient.left a perfectly good pocket several times..eyes down and wants out <a href="https://t.co/gLLccRtTL8">pic.twitter.com/gLLccRtTL8</a></p>&mdash; Mike Mayock (@MikeMayock) <a href="https://twitter.com/MikeMayock/status/831146830641713156">February 13, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Watson is just a winner. I'd love it if we got him.

I'm starting to like Mahomes, but I draft Watson or Kizer if they are there.

And truthfully with one of the extra picks we have I draft Chad Kelly if he's an idiot easy cut. If he turns good worthy gamble. Like in fifth round.

Last time I recall Mayock seeming so petrified of the QB class was the 2013 class which yielded ZERO franchise QB's. Every last QB selected in that class is currently a second/third-stringer or rosterless.

Mahomes is a baller, but he makes some of the stupidest, anti-clutch throws ever. Decision making is really weird at times. Reminds me of the late game shit that Rivers will do to lose games.

Some decent QB discussion starts at the 5 minute mark. They debate whether Mahomes is the best QB in the draft and Matt Waldman says Kizer has a little Alex Smith in him...

<iframe src="http://www.podcastone.com/embed?progID=796&pid=1707774" width="300" height="696" frameborder="0" ></iframe>

FWIW no Kizer in Kiper's mock

JFC starting to buy into the possibility that he's there at 27.

Greg Cosell compared DeShaun Watson to Alex Smith. Um...what?

From DJ's Ask 5...

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...996-sf56575996

Many fixate on the NFL version of Smith.

Go back to Smith's Utah film. You will see the similarities...

Davis Webb is my darkhorse.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Man if Kizer was there at 27 you have to take him. That'd be awesome to get my Toledo boy here in KC.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Per Bill Polian on <a href="https://twitter.com/MikeAndMike">@MikeAndMike</a> &quot;Chad Kelly is the best quarterback in the draft&quot;</p>&mdash; Kim Shanahan (@KimShanfan) <a href="https://twitter.com/KimShanfan/status/831856155353812992">February 15, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

YOU could get an undrafted guy that's as good as Lynch. Does Nortwestern have another 7th round turd to beat him.out ROFL

From Matt Miller's notebook...

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...ce=twitter.com

...and they are all beyter than Lynch...ouch

Everyone knew going into it that Lynch wouldn't be ready year one. Everyone. Why are you so surprised that he wasn't ready?

If you watched Lynch though, it was very clear that he has some rare traits. A guy that big, who can move that fluidly who also has a huge arm... if he reaches his ceiling it will be bad news for the NFL.

...and after this year you will say he won't be ready till year 3

All of these QB's are basically Paxton Lynch type QB's. Mahommes is basically the same QB but far more mobile.

The difference is the intelligence which none of us will know much about right now. We do know Lynch was not that football smart.

There is no sure fire day 1 starter in this QB class. It doesn't make it horrible. It just means that you find a stop gap and draft a guy to sit for a year.

I think Watson could be. I don't get why you all don't love him.

Because he never makes the same mistake twice in a row.

You don't know what to fix on the guy because every other pass is a new adventure in misfiring a football. He's damn erratic.

If you have a golfer that slices every shot, there's an easy fix there - you get him to stop pulling across the face and you're golden. But if he's, uh, me....he makes a new mistake on every swing and there's just too much wrong to focus on any specific fix. And even when something is perfect, you can't duplicate it with any regularity.

Watson's a lot like that. He fires high and low and wide. He'll throw into triple coverage, feel phantom pressure, hold onto the ball too long, etc... Then he'll twirl a rocket in between three guys for a TD or scramble out of trouble for 30 yards.

The guys a taller, less douche-rocket Manziel. He's so damn erratic that it's hard to know where to even start in fixing him. Then you worry that if you do that, you'll take away the things that make him dynamic. But dynamic or no, the guy was one of the worst in all of college football at throwing interceptions (led the NCAA over the last 2 years, IIRC). He absolutely cannot function on the next level playing like he does.

And everything about his game is so loud that the degree of difficulty in trying to iron out those wrinkles is going to be extremely high.

If Watson starts for a team - any team - next year, I think that team loses no fewer than 10 games. He's nowhere near an NFL ready quarterback.