Spiderman is [no longer] out of the MCU
 

https://deadline.com/2019/08/kevin-f...er-1202672545/

It was fun while it lasted, but Sony once again is stupid and has cancelled this deal. Might as well call it Sony hates money.

Both Sony and Disney are idiots on this.

Fools.

Both are idiots, but Sony really needs to understand they need Marvel a hell of a lot more than Marvel needs them.

I mean...maybe?

I don't think Phase 4 is going to be the license to print money that the originals were. They will have audiences, for sure - but they'll be smaller. And what will really hurt them are the misses, presuming there are some.

Thor 2, Iron Man 3 and Age of Ultron were just utter shite. But the damage was minimal to non-existent - the next movie came out and the machine just kept churning. The intertia of the MCU was unstoppable.

I don't know that I see that in Phase 4. There's a lot of change here and any stumble could continue to cast ripples.

Maybe you're right and Sony should just do what it takes to get this done, but I definitely think we've seen Peak MCU and there's not far to go but down from here. Perhaps Sony isn't quite so willing to go blindly forward with that sort of ship.

Sony has proven to be incompetent...Marvel has not, who you gonna trust?

But Marvel's not making a trivial ask here.

They're asking for ten times the profits of their original agreement; they were getting 5% and now they want 50%. That's not nothing.

From a strictly dollars and cents standpoint, Marvel has to be hugely responsible for the profits here to make this work. Moreover, nothing says Sony couldn't go back if momentum dries up.

For instance, lets say they agree with Marvel and Feige directs and the next Spiderman makes $1B in gross - well generally speaking you're talking in the 40-45% range in terms of how much of the gross actually gets back to the studios after theaters, etc... are paid. So lets just say $425 million back to the studio.

now we have a $160 million budget. Let's chip in another $100 million for marketing costs (which seems conservative but we'll stand there). Now we're down to $165 million in profits and that's BEFORE we get to additional incidentals like profit cuts for key figures in production. Then you add back in rentals, on demand, etc... but you can't include merchandising because Sony already lost that.

Now this mostly becomes a wild-ass guess at this point but let's say that there's a pool of roughly $300 million in profit available to Sony and Marvel after all is said and done there. Everyone's paid and all the revenue streams have paid roughly what they're gonna pay - that seem fair? If not, why not?

Let's work from that - Marvel wants $150 million of it under the new agreement. Leaving $150 million behind for Sony.

Sony can easily coast on the momentum of 'Into the Spiderverse' (which kicked ass without Marvel's help) and make at least a couple of movies with profits in excess of the $150 million they'd end up with after Marvel's cut. And that's all they need to do - coast. They can make at least one of them and if it's good, they've make another one. And if it's a success, another.

Venom got great returns and made a ton of money without Feige and the MCU. Sony can do that with Spiderman, especially now that they have momentum on their side. And they don't have to be as successful as they would've been - just 51% as successful. If so, they'll be money ahead. And if (when?) the momentum stalls - you go back to Marvel and discuss another merger.

But Sony's gambling on themselves a bit and that's not a terrible idea. They've shown some signs that they may not suck at this right now.

Yeah, I'm not hard on Sony here. Especially since Spiderman was being groomed as Iron Man's heir apparent on the team and is the most recognizable hero left in the Avengers.

Well, that sucks. I like Tom Holland, but if they're going to keep going with him as Spiderman, that means they're going to have to just kind of pretend that the rest of the MCU characters don't exist (since I'm sure Disney won't give them the rights to even mention the others at this point). So that's going to make it all weird and isolated.

I'll probably still watch, but I have dramatically less interest in watching Spiderman standalones.

I could be wrong on this, but I don't think those two percentages are apples-to-apples comparisons. The 5% is described as "first dollar gross," which I would take to mean it's a pure 5% of revenue (and expenses don't matter). The other arrangement Disney was proposing was "50/50 co-financing," which I would interpret as both of them have an equal stake in both the expenses and revenues (so Disney gets 50% of the profits rather than 5% of the gross revenue).

I'm sure that the 50/50 still is massively better for Disney than the 5%, but I don't THINK your assessment that it would be "ten times the profits" is accurate.

EDIT: To further disclaim this, I'm only about 75% sure I'm understanding this correctly, but using figures from Far From Home, the film looks like it made about $1.1 billion worldwide, so Disney's share would be about $55 million. If you remove 3x production budget from that (which I've heard is a rough rule of thumb for total budget including marketing and distribution), that would mean Disney would have gotten like $310 million. So yeah, Disney's proposal is still massively different than the status quo. However, the 5% version says that "If the film tanks, Disney still gets paid," while the 50/50 version says "If the film tanks, Disney takes a hit just like Sony." So it's not COMPLETELY in Disney's favor do move to the latter arrangement.

Let’s talk about something most folks won’t talk about: Endgame wasn’t very good.

It just felt prolonged and boring. I don’t know that I would rank it a top 3 MCU movie

The phrases "not top 3 MCU" and "wasn't very good" don't seem to jive for me. Was it the best ever? I dunno. But it was still a very, very good movie.

Yeah, if anyone wants to disagree with anything I said there, I'll defer. I know **** all about this apart from some back of the napkin calculations I could find.

But it certainly appears that Disney is asking for a WAY bigger cut. And that it was big enough for Sony to justify taking a pretty big risk in walking away.

That means something.

Yep, no disagreement.

This version of Spider Man won't make much sense if the MCU components are cut out. I guess you can retcon Uncle Ben as his primary motivator/mentor but we've already spent 5 movies setting up Tony Stark as that figure. Hell, all of his equipment is Stark based tech. This is going to be weird, and Sony having to write their way out of it doesn't seem feasible given their track record.

I'd be curious to know how the agreements even work. Can they even mention the name "Tony Stark" without Disney's approval? If not, that's gonna be...problematic.

What the **** are you smoking? Endgame was great.

I don't think it's going to be an issue. Thor is still around, and Ragnarok netted over 800 million on a budget under 200. Captain Marvel was over 1.1 billion. Black Panther was over 1.25 billion. Even Ant Man and the Wasp was over 600 million, as was the first Doctor Strange. Every single one of those is more than any DC movie has ever made and they're all part of whatever team up is coming.

I don't know how stuff like The Eternals and Shang-Chi are going to do, but I'd be surprised if they don't find some way to get people in theaters.

And I don't think it's going to hurt them at all to have shows on Disney+ either.

And then there's the X-Men and Fantastic Four.

Twenty years ago who would've thought the MCU would be what it is now? And that was done primarily without Spider-Man. I wouldn't bet against them at this point.

They got the Guardians of the Galaxy way more popular than I would've thought possible. They'll be fine.

Interesting. Sounds like Sony is going to try and press on with the same creative team. Tom Holland and director Watts.

I’ll bet they shoehorn him into the Venom franchise

Even if what you said was true, which it isn't, this isn't really an indictment of anything. In a series with Iron Man, The Winter Soldier, Infinity War, Guardians of the Galaxy and Thor Ragnarok, some really, really good movies are being left out of the top 3.

Marvel can also kill off spiderman again. Which I heard is happening. Stop games from being made and action figures. Let Sony kill off profits themselves like they did with Garfield. Marvel has shown they will play the long game.

Hopefully they compromise.

Wonder if the mcu cod create a new character. Now that it is known who Spidey is. He needs. New identity. Then start right after far from home with that.

Shangchi will make 2 billion in Asia if done correctly.

There is still time for them to re-negotiate but this leak hurts.

If anything I think it'll have the opposite effect. Now that the fans know they might feel the pressure to get a deal done.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SpiderMan?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#SpiderMan</a>: Sony &amp; Marvel Studios May Still Negotiate a Deal <a href="https://t.co/lsRr0xx3zm">https://t.co/lsRr0xx3zm</a> <a href="https://t.co/Vk5uyXUq3V">pic.twitter.com/Vk5uyXUq3V</a></p>&mdash; Comic Book Resources (@CBR) <a href="https://twitter.com/CBR/status/1163976517803810816?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 21, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Disney is evil. Sony needs to stand up to them and say no. Someone has to. Also Spiderverse had nothing to do with Disney.

That's why they're doing this, they probably made a crazy offer to Disney for a new deal, one they knew Disney wouldn't accept and they were going to plan to bring Spider-man into Venom 2 at the end somehow to setup a must have third film even if the second one sucks.

This feels over.

@Borys_Kit: EXCLUSIVE: SPIDER-MAN divorce goes up a level as Sony responds, says it's Disney's decision to end partnership. "We are disappointed." https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/he...r_breakingnews

Would love to see Sony succeed with this move, even know I know they will fall flat on their faces.

I'm sick of Disney ruling the world.

In the comics, Tony Stark lets it slip that he knows about Peter's spider-sense after he gives Peter the Stark-tech Spidey Suit. Spider-man realizes that the suit is analyzing him and sending that info back to Tony Stark so he gets rid of it. That could easily be done in this universe too.

https://deadline.com/2019/08/kevin-f...er-1202672545/

If Sony is building their own 'Spider-verse', I can see why they wouldn't want to give half of that money to Disney.

You mean his Peter-tingle?

There's just too much money in these MCU Spider-Man films for this to fully die. Surely they'll work out a deal.

They're going to have to do a hell of a heel-turn, though, narratively, if Spidey is gone. It was clear in Far From Home that they were setting him up to be the central figure of the MCU going forward.

I think the central Stark/Cap/Thor trio was planned, in phase 4, to be replaced by Spidey/T'Challa/Danvers. I *think*.

But make no mistake -- and this is where I disagree with DJLN -- the MCU is going to continue printing money. Thor 4 will rake it in. Strange 2 will rake it in. Black Panther 2 will rake it in. Captain Marvel 2 will rake it in. GOTG 3 will rake it in. They'll keep dipping their toes into new properties, and keep trying new stuff. Some of it will sink (like, relatively, the Ant-Man movies) and some of it will strike gold. And the machine will churn on.

But narratively, the entire MCU benefits sooooooo much from Tom Holland's Spidey, and both companies make stupid money off of him. There's no way they're going to just bury him without milking him Stark-style for another 5 movies.

The thing I think may harm the MCU's longterm profit margin are the Disney series with Loki, WandaVision, and Falcon/Bucky.

With those shows ongoing featuring central characters, the maintenance of having to keep up with the MCU is going to increase. I think one of the reasons the MCU has thrived is because they come out basically twice a year, which (a.) forces fans to wait, but more importantly (b.) makes keeping up with the MCU low-effort.

There's enough money to go around. I liked it better when Spiderman was separate from the MCU; the whole Tony Stark/Spiderman thing doesn't feel right to me. The character is interesting enough without needing Tony Stark. Deadpool seems to be doing fine on his own and they managed to tank the X-Men. I can see separate worlds where each can exist and do fine.

Tony/Steve/Thor were my main interests. Natasha/Hawkey/Hulk/etc. are nice sidekicks.

I'm a bit overloaded and the PG-13 ratings are having trouble holding my interest.

It'd be funny if Tom Holland didn't sign on to be Spiderman anymore due to this and Sony had to recast Spiderman yet again, and fall on their faces with the fans.

I think they're just pulling an Eric Berry and bringing the public into the negotiating table. After Far From Home and the plan for Spidey to be Iron Man's heir apparent Sony has more leverage than they've had for a long time... especially if Disney wants half of the profits.

and not just half of Spider-man, they alledgedly wanted half of Venom, Kraven, Morbius and any other movie that involves Spider-man characters as well.

Yea but didn't they also offer to put money in thus taking a risk as well? Where as with the last 2 they were Sony funded so Marvel had no risk.

Yeah, I was about to point this out. They want a 50/50 co-production, so they'd be paying half the budget as well.

Exactly this.

Disney had no risk but also only got 5%. Now Disney wants 50% of the risk for 50% of the profit. If you take a movie like Venom and put the Disney deal in place, then Sony loses hundreds of millions.

What am I missing?

If Disney has half the risk, I’d take that to mean half the expense. If they have half the expense and get half of the revenue, the margin would be better than giving away 5% of the net.

Meaning that if it made money Sony would get less. If it lost money Sony would lose less. It wouldn’t take a profitable movie and make it unprofitable.

50% income - 50% expense = net

Vs

100% income - 100% expense = net -5%

So what am I missing?

Bear in mind Disney is still making 100% of profits off of merchandising. So this is about Disney being greedy.

In the good news, this separation means I will never have to endure another minute of Venom. What a crap movie that was. Now if we can somehow cut Deadpool out the MCU will be nearly perfect.

Everyone always says how bad Venom was but it made a billion dollars. I thought it was decent.

Why would this kill Venom? If anything, it gives them the opportunity to get spiderman and venom on screen together.

Oh and your comment on Deadpool STFU STFU STFU STFU STFU STFU STFU STFU STFU STFU STFU STFU STFU STFU STFU STFU STFU STFU STFU STFU

Won’t kill Venom- just keeps him in Sony movies and out of Marvel movies.

Venom grossed $856 million with a budget of $100 million. Would you rather have 100% of that or 50%?
Spider-Man: FFH grossed $1.1 billion with a budget of $160 million. Would you rather have 100% of that or 50%?

Spider-Man is a 1000 ft tent pole and now it looks like Venom may be as well. Even if the other movies are money losers, Sony will still have a profitable franchise by far.

I think this will be a bigger lose for Disney if the deal falls through.

Curious what the numbers were on the Garfield Spiderman movies. I thought those were bad, although not as bad as McGuires Spiderman 3. That franchise is bulletproof if they made anything close to the last two. To me, adding Spidey to the MCU brought what was becoming a forgettable franchise back from the dead.

Rumors that something could be announced at d23 regarding Spiderman.

Also Ms. Marvel, She Hulk and Moon Knight announced streaming series! On Disney+ So pumped. Ms. Marvel confirmed to show up in a future movie.

IMO,;the Spider-Man Franchise is dead in the water especially if they have to do a soft reboot/retcon.

They have time to repair this relationship... hopefully it happens.

Lol come on. The franchise survived Spider-Man 3 and the two Amazing Spider-Man flicks.

Sony struck out twice on their own until the help of Feige. If they are going to ignore the MCU canon then they are ****ed because of oversaturation of the character with the inability to tell a compelling narrative.

I know, I'm going to save my money and not see the next installment if it's strictly Sony involvement

When did Feige step in?

In the comics Ms. Marvel is an Inhuman, but it would make a lot of sense to make her a mutant instead. Sidestep all the TV baggage of the Inhumans and let her be the introduction of mutants into the MCU.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GuardiansOfTheGalaxy?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#GuardiansOfTheGalaxy</a> director <a href="https://twitter.com/JamesGunn?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@JamesGunn</a> says that <a href="https://twitter.com/Disney?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Disney</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/SonyPictures?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@SonyPictures</a> are &quot;working their sh*t out&quot; with the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SpiderMan?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#SpiderMan</a> situation... <a href="https://t.co/FYpdSBRpeo">https://t.co/FYpdSBRpeo</a> <a href="https://t.co/xNFtc9rwf3">pic.twitter.com/xNFtc9rwf3</a></p>&mdash; MCU Direct (@MCU_Direct) <a href="https://twitter.com/MCU_Direct/status/1166466148751351808?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 27, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

**** yes. Figure it out and both companies will make plenty of money.

What do you mean by "twice"? The original trilogy was a success, though too much meddling from the suits messed up the final movie.

Venom shoehorned in the 3rd installment that Raimi was preasued to include by the Sony executives.

The Amazing Spider-Man sequel was such a shitshow they ended that continuity.

Brandon Routh's Suoerman Returns was also a box office success, but the fans ostracized it to the point where it took 7 years to resurrect the Franchise

If this weren't the new woke MsheU I would be excited. Moon Knight would have been perfect for a Netflix show. And when Peter David wrote She Hulk and the book was a very sarcastic comedy based adventure series (think a toned down Deadpool) I really liked it.

Thanks for the reply, as I wasn't sure where you were going with your post. But Marvel's had some relative duds, too, and Sony did have the first two Spider Man entries, so I'm not sure it should be viewed as cut and dry Marvel = Good, No Marvel = Bad.

But, we'll see what the future holds. For me, Spider-man not being in the upcoming Marvel Wokeverse is not something I automatically view as a negative. In fact, keeping the web slinger out of that may be a very smart move for Sony.

I think the argument is that Sony's meddling impacted the Raimiverse so much that it not only tainted Spiderman 3, but it destroyed the chances of a Spiderman 4 and 5 in that universe (which Tobey, Kirsten and Raimi were all originally on board to do).

Still, Spiderman 2 is a solid, solid flick from that universe and still holds its own after the advent of the Nolan era and the Marvelverse. It's hokey, but it wears that hokeyness on its sleeve and balances that out with fantastic performances from Maguire and Molina.

He's back! Will make 3rd movie and atleast be in another Marvel movie.

July 16, 2021 release date for Spiderman 3.

@Variety: Sony, Marvel Make Up: Companies Will Produce Third ‘Spider-Man’ Film https://wp.me/p2WgDE-1jr8GZ

Also rumors Spiderman can appear in Sony's Marvel Universe w/ no mention of the mcu. Awesome.

Excellent!

Nice. Good to see cooler heads prevail.

There were billions of dollars on the line. They were always going to find a compromise.

Knew it was only a matter of time, but still great news.

Side note: I still haven't seen Far From Home.

Me either. I’m a crap fan

I just watched last weekend. Didn't enjoy it that much while watching, but as I've been thinking about it this week, I really like it. Need to watch it again.

@DEADLINE: Jon Watts In Final Talks To Return As Director Of Third ‘Spider-Man: Homecoming’ Movie http://dlvr.it/RF2Z5J https://twitter.com/DEADLINE/status/...629888/photo/1

ROFL

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transform: translateX(16px) translateY(-4px) rotate(30deg)"></div></div><div style="margin-left: auto;"> <div style=" width: 0px; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-right: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(16px);"></div> <div style=" background-color: #F4F4F4; flex-grow: 0; height: 12px; width: 16px; transform: translateY(-4px);"></div> <div style=" width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-left: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(-4px) translateX(8px);"></div></div></div></a> <p style=" margin:8px 0 0 0; padding:0 4px;"> <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/B264Zf5FoR6/?utm_source=ig_embed&amp;utm_campaign=loading" style=" color:#000; font-family:Arial,sans-serif; font-size:14px; font-style:normal; font-weight:normal; line-height:17px; text-decoration:none; word-wrap:break-word;" target="_blank">��</a></p> <p style=" color:#c9c8cd; font-family:Arial,sans-serif; font-size:14px; line-height:17px; margin-bottom:0; margin-top:8px; overflow:hidden; padding:8px 0 7px; text-align:center; text-overflow:ellipsis; white-space:nowrap;">A post shared by <a href="https://www.instagram.com/tomholland2013/?utm_source=ig_embed&amp;utm_campaign=loading" style=" color:#c9c8cd; font-family:Arial,sans-serif; font-size:14px; font-style:normal; font-weight:normal; line-height:17px;" target="_blank"> Tom Holland</a> (@tomholland2013) on <time style=" font-family:Arial,sans-serif; font-size:14px; line-height:17px;" datetime="2019-09-27T15:41:34+00:00">Sep 27, 2019 at 8:41am PDT</time></p></div></blockquote> <script async src="//www.instagram.com/embed.js"></script>

Seeing it tomorrow evening.

Holland is so ****ing awesome.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Heroic action: <a href="https://twitter.com/TomHolland1996?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@TomHolland1996</a> reportedly made multiple appeals to <a href="https://twitter.com/Disney?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Disney</a> CEO <a href="https://twitter.com/RobertIger?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@RobertIger</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/SonyPictures?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@SonyPictures</a> chairman Tom Rothman that reinvigorated talks between the studios to form a new <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SpiderMan?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#SpiderMan</a> deal! <a href="https://t.co/S5RsetzXMd">https://t.co/S5RsetzXMd</a> <a href="https://t.co/ias9i1MhpB">pic.twitter.com/ias9i1MhpB</a></p>&mdash; MCU Direct (@MCU_Direct) <a href="https://twitter.com/MCU_Direct/status/1179469805042176005?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 2, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>