The possibility of keeping Alex Smith.
 

Alright, let's get down to some nitty gritty here, folks.

What if Alex Smith is amazing in 2017? The Chiefs hand will be forced -- keep him. 2018 will be the final year of his contract and it's a $20m cap hit. Not unreasonable for a guy playing extremely well.

So, what would the Chiefs have to do?

First, we pretty much have the cap met RIGHT NOW, assuming we bring back absolutely no one who is a free agent. So our cap is royally ****ed.

The two most popular ideas right now are cutting DJ/Hali, or letting them both retire, or whatever. Cutting them saves us a combined $15m. We likely have DJ's replacements already on the roster, and Ford will be entering his contract year in 2018.

We can also cut (or trade) Allen Bailey if we want to elevate RNR to a starting slot. Trading Bailey saves us $8m (and nets us a draft pick or whatever). Cutting him saves us $6m.

If Eric Fisher has a really good 2017, maybe we just extend/restructure him at the end of the season. That would lower his cap hit in 2018 (right now it's slated for $14m).

I wouldn't touch Allen Bailey, but I'd cut DJ/Hali and extend/restructure Fisher. That allows us to keep Mr. Smith and have roughly $20m in cap space, $5m of which can go to our rookie class.

I think it's non-negotiable that we bring back Terrance Mitchell, but he shouldn't cost a ton. Bennie Logan might be a good idea -- although, again, we could just play RNR at the nose and be fine (which is what I would do if we kept Smith on the roster).

So my recommendation, keeping Alex rather than trading him:

1. cut/retire DJ
2. cut/retire Hali
3. restructure/extend Fisher
4. extend Terrance Mitchell
5. let basically all of our FAs walk: De'Anthony, Fulton, Logan, Sherman, Albert Wilson, Gaines, Colquitt
6. make a few choice re-signings (Santos, KPL, maybe Gaines?)

That'll leave us thin at DL, OL, and OLB -- which I hate. And the best draft pick we'll have in 2018 will be at the very bottom of the 2nd.

But hey, if your QB is balling out, who cares?

Food for thought.

If Mahomes is ready....then you have ZERO reason to keep Smith at $20 million for a season.

If he plays that well that you think about keeping him, two things

A. His trade value will never be higher. Someone would give you a first rounder

B. Restructure him and keep him

Basically the choice is between a Mahomes-led team that could have pretty incredible depth and awesome offensive weapons.

or

A Smith-led team off a hot-as-shit year for Smith with some depth issues along the trenches.

The second team above would have Smith, but would obviously be sacrificing some talent to keep him.

So you've got your scenario above or the following:

Trade Smith for draft capital and gain $17 million in cap space.
DJ and Hali retire freeing up cap space.
You wouldn't have to get rid of Bailey....and you would have enough space to re-sign Logan. That would keep the entire defensive line intact going into the next season.
You'd have the money to re-sign Mitchell if he's proven worthy of one.

With the missing draft picks this team has to be really careful about letting depth guys go.

Missing the first was a calculated decision, obviously.

You could argue that spending the 5th on Erving was a depth decision -- but meh.

The Chiefs traded their 7th away, but got two 7ths coming back due to King and Cooper, along with an additional 6th for Battle.

Not disagreeing with you, of course, just re-stating facts.

Dude, this team can truly be Super Bowl caliber, moreso than it is right now, if we trade Smith and let Hali/DJ go. We can do what you suggested there, PLUS make a splash in free agency somewhere.

But you're handing your Super Bowl caliber team over to a first time starter in Mahomes. And while I'm okay with that, I think it's also reasonable to trot Alex Smith out for another year if he keeps playing like he did yesterday.

Super Bowl caliber, with time. The Chiefs will have a couple things to sort out and expecting a first year starting QB to win it all is asking a whole lot.

Trading Alex after a career year would be the best move for the Chiefs, as keeping him would savage the depth.

The better the 2017, the more he'll be worth in trade, and all the more reason we should ship his ass out.

Alex Smith has absolutely no good reason to be on the roster in 2018 barring a horrific injury to Mahomes while he's on the bench

If I'm Smith....I don't want to be on the Chiefs after this year. He has to know that at the start of the season...his days are numbered. It would take one horrible game or one injury and he loses his job.

Y'know we say that....but would they?

I mean, we can just cross off the top 10, right? Nobody's giving up a top 10 pick for a 33 yr old QB with 1 year left on his deal so they can get the privilege of extending him into his decline years. Nobody would give up a top 10 for Cousins who's younger and has absolutely killed it the last 2 years.

So that leaves us with teams in the 11-30 range. Well most teams in that range are actually pretty good and have their QB situation well in hand for the next few years or have drafted someone relatively recently (The Texans, for instance, who now have Watson and traded next years 1st anyway).

Give me the 'someone'. You need a team on the cusp of competition who's going to be in the middle of the round and sees Alex Smith as someone that can get them to the next step.

For a 33 year old passer, that's just not going to exist. His window is too short; he fits an odd niche. I see one possibility out there - just one. Jacksonville. If Jacksonville can take all that talent on defense and turn in an 8-8 kind of season that has them drafting around 16 so they have to take a more raw long-term option at QB, perhaps they look at Smith as a guy that can stabilize the franchise while the young defense continues to gel. He can keep them all playing meaningful snaps while the young QB develops.

And I guess maybe Washington for similar reasons though if Cousins leaves the 'Skins should probably just tear it down and rebuild; I don't see a long-term core there.

Those both seem like serious long shots and that's assuming neither of them actually sign Kirk Cousins (wouldn't Jacksonville be a perfect spot for him?).

A second is probably the best we'll do. And that's assuming he puts up 3,800 and 25+.

I'm not even sure we'd get a 2nd for him. I'd take a 3rd and be happy with it.

It will take multiple horrible games or a severe injury.

If he goes off this year and they think that Mahomes is ready, the FO will likely try their best to trade him for 2nd round picks. Teams who would likely make the trade:

Jags
Texans (depending on how much/if Watson ends up sucking)
Cardinals (Palmer is likely done)
Jets
Bills