I watched about ten minutes of the combine today, and caught Kevin White running the 40.

Holy cow.

That dude is big and built and smoking fast, and he was so smooth. The other receivers were all running hard, but he was just floating down the track. Dang, that guy is an impressive physical specimen.

I still wouldn't touch DGB with a ten foot pole. There are so many good receivers in this draft that are far more polished that I'd take first. Plus, they're much "cleaner".

He's the Man. I know that everyone is mocking Amari Cooper to the Raiders, and don't get me wrong, he looks great, but something tells me White is going to be even better.

Could it be because White is superior at everything except route running, which he can improve on with better coaching? That's why Mayock has White as his #1 over Cooper, higher ceiling and the fact that he can physically dominate an opponent, something that Cooper's size doesn't allow him to do.

I wasn't saying that like an insult at all. I said it was an optimistic comparison...I still don't think he goes before the 2nd. Also he had 13 reps? So he's not THAT strong.

White was surprising. He just made himself some money. Dude is fast and Strong.

Kenny Bell is my #1 target at WR now. He is exactly what we need. Here's his numbers compared to the other WR's

6'1" 197 lbs
4.42 (T 7th)
3rd best vertical jump at 41.5
4th best broad jump
3rd best 3 cone drill

This kid gets open fast and blows the top of off defenses. He also fights for and wins jump balls.
He is reliable and looks very fast on tape.

Sign me up. I'd take him rd 2 and not look back.

Certainly a speed demon...but he's ranked out now as a 6th round pick? I think you just might be able to get him a little later than the 2nd. Even with a good combine result.

I think Kenny Bell could be a good WR but not for this team and no way he should be a 2nd round pick.

If Jeremy Maclin is a model WR for Reid's offense, Kenny Bell, Stefon Diggs, and Tre McBride look like good fits. All three should be available for the Chiefs day 3 picks.

Nick Jacobs twitted that the Chiefs are all over East Carolina's WR Justin Hardy. What are your thoughts on him? Do you think this means that the Chiefs won't target a WR in the first round?

Kenny Bell is a different player than a guy like Maclin. Bell is better suited for a vertical passing game.

Give me Nelson Agholor in the 2nd.

It could mean they are targeting more than one WR and plan to gut their shit ass WR corp and start over.

I think he's a guy you really want in a WCO.

Thank god they didn't do it last year when it was the best WR class ever and we had the 10 lbs. of kick ass that they just released.

They get an F- for the whole "not addressing the OL and WR position" last season.

They sure do. I think Dee Ford will end up being a decent starter, but holy **** were they nuts for not taking a WR or some pass-blockers for a pass happy offense.

If last year's wr class was a 10, this year's is a solid 9, if not better

Are there any 3-4 pass rusher's in this years draft comparable to Dee Ford at Auburn? IMO, that's the reason he was taken in 2014 - It's hard to pass on pass rushers.

As long as the Chiefs come away with two WR's in this draft, I'll be happy. If not, it had better be because they drafted Williams or a Clive Walford.

They desperately need two more reliable targets.

Vic Beasely. Not sure we'd have a shot at him though.

Sacc's high on Orchard.. There's also Vic Beasley.

Dunno if Gregory could hold up at OLB.

He absolutely can.

Seemed pretty light in the trousers

They will never see Beasley, especially after the combine he just had.

Sacks translate to the next level.

Orchard has a variety of pass rush moves and translates speed to power very effectively. He pursues well and he's effective in dropping back into coverage as well as supporting the run. He follows the ball and play exceptionally well.

He's not a complete physical freak like Beasley, but he's more pro ready and has a better skill set.

He has gone up against some pretty good tackles this year including Andrus Peat, Ty Sambrailo and Jake Fisher and worked them.

Well, hold on. Kevin White had me saying holy hot ****, but watching him and then watching Amari Cooper - I'd be hard pressed to pass on Cooper. He isn't an athlete, he isn't a football player, he's a wide receiver. He's perfect for the position. Guy is just a total natural.

Having said that, flip a coin and call it a day.

WR's
 

Comparing the combine results and rankings of all these guys, here's what stood out to me:

1st Rounders

DeVante Parker - Grade 6.18 - Strengths Consistently plays with outstanding body control. Soft hands and elite concentration are his calling cards. Credited with just three drops since 2012

Best pick at 1.18

Amari Cooper - Grade 7.0 - Only WR with 10" hands. This guy tore up the SEC. One recent mock had him going 10th to the Rams. If he's still there, I say we jump up and get him.

2nd rounders:

Chris Conley - Grade 5.48 - 9 7/8" hands. Tall receiver lacking blazing speed but showcasing enough acceleration to create separation when challenging upfield.

Jaelen Strong - Grade 5.8 - 9" hands. Good combination of height, weight and arm length for the position. Former high school basketball player who knows how to keep defenders on his hip.

Unknown

DGB - Grade 5.68 - 9" hands. "I think the consistent problems for Josh Gordon are going to leak over and hurt his draft stock. He couldn't keep himself out of trouble, had no structure growing up and didn't take coaching at Missouri. He's tall and fast and has good hands, but he can't be trusted. Why would you take a guy like that before the third day?" -- NFC director of personnel

Very. I hope the Kevin White hype continues and Cooper falls to 10. We could jump up that high and get the next Marvin Harrison.

Cooper may have 10" hands but he isn't as consistent of a pass catcher as White or Parker are. He's had more ugly drops than he should for a top WR prospect. He also isn't nearly as good at making contested catches as those other two are.

We didn't trade up for Brandin Cooks or Odell Beckham. Why on earth would anyone assume Dorsey is going to trade up for White or Cooper?

If anything, this is the draft to trade down in the first and still pick up the same guy.

Go from 18 to around 23-25, and you can still get a right tackle or first round talent WR.

Pick up an extra pick in the third, which is apparently the only place we know how to draft anyway (apologies to Russell Wilson).

I'm starting to think that we'll probably draft a couple of WRs in the 2nd to 5th round range.

I'm almost always in favor of trading down.

Thanks for moving my thread mods. Sorry for the double thread.

Put me in there as trading down as well, we should have a decent pick if we are looking for DT, and most of the OT are projected as moving to OG anyway.

If we cannot land one of top 3 WOs there is not going to be much of a difference maker at 18th spot we can about the same 4 to 5 picks later.

If I am the GM I would be talking up some players RBs WOs, pash rushers that fall within 18th spot and hope we can hook in team for a extra 3rd draft pick.
That would give us say 4 picks in the top 100 players to chose off the big board OL/DB/DT/WO/.
Pray same teams has their hooks on some player and will take him at 18th.

From a statistical and analytical standpoint, it is better to trade down in the 1st round. My understanding is that no matter how sure you are that this guy is going to be the next Jerry Rice or Reggie White or Joe Montana, odds are you're wrong and better served by getting extra picks and spreading your risk.

Most GMs don't believe it though. They have too much confidence in their ability to pick players to do this. New England is the only team that appears to do this on a somewhat regular basis (as far as I have noticed)...hasn't worked out too badly for them.

I remember reading about this a while back. It occurs to me that this might work for the first round, but I'm sure there are diminishing returns and a point where you might even want to start trading up.

Trading down hasn't really worked out that we'll for the Pats either. Until recent drafts, they've been shitty drafters

If you're a shitty Scouter/drafter, you're better off shot gunning the draft. At least you have a chance of getting someone good. Doesn't mean it will always happen.

I wouldn't say they've done too badly.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/ful...3200&type=team

More picks does statistically equal more chances, but those chances diminish when the round of the pick is lower.

A first rounder is going to have a higher chance of success than 2 5th rounders combined

You're right..but a first rounder is not going to have a higher chance of success than 2 2nd rounders. Remember you're not going to trade out of a 1st round for 2 5ths.... unless maybe you're the Raiders or Washington.

Then you get into impact of the player talk.

If youre at the end of th first round, I'd agree more. At 18, I wouldn't want to trade back too far. but ultimately, it's always a good idea

Again, I am just going on what I read that stated based on a statistical analysis of years of drafting no GM is good enough to beat the odds on a regular basis. You're better off trading out of whatever 1st round pick you have for more picks. That doesn't always mean trading out of the 1st round.

Early on, the statistic favor trading down more strongly. Meaning the smartest thing you can do with the 1-1 pick is trade. Even if Manning is there. Because you don't know if he is going to be Manning, Alex Smith, David Carr, or Jamarcus Russell.

I'm not familiar enough with the study to know what the actual breakeven point is.

That's where stats can't tell the whole story. Each prospect is different and the possibly return on a qb always out weights the downside.

With the new wage scale, it's changed that as well, with the franchise crippling of a bust not as high

And that's the argument that GMs make. The statistics argue that NO GM is smart enough to win out using that info over the statistics in the long run.

Because in that situation, the statistics lead to a wrong decision.

QB is still a multiplier. If you can get a great one like manning, the chance you have to take and the picks you have to give up are worth it.

This is speaking of qbs though, in terms of other picks, it wouldn't matter.

But again, trading down takes 2 to tango, so it isn't always as simple as saying "I want to trade down".

Yes, but the odds are that they would have drafted equally shitty players in the first round, would have them on guaranteed contracts that are more expensive, and had less chances to hit on a player.

If you draft shitty, you ABSOLUTELY want more picks - because that's just more chances of getting lucky.

If you draft shitty, what's it matter?

maybe if that's the case, improve your drafting?

You're right, it does take two to tango. Sometimes you can't trade out of a pick, that doesn't mean that you wouldn't have been better off if you could.

You keep pointing out to context vs stats. Stats suggest that no GM is smart enough to pick out the context. Example Eli Manning. Context at the time said he was the next Peyton. He's a solid QB, but certainly not Peyton. Now look at what he was traded for:

Philip Rivers, Shawne Merriman and Nate Kaeding.

No question in my mind that SD came out ahead with this deal. Manning might be slightly better than Rivers...might...but the rest of the trade goes to SD.

Instead of trading up the Giants could have stayed put and gotten Big Ben.

If you look at every trade ever made in the 1st round in the history of the NFL you will find that the majority of the "winners" were the ones trading down.

That nullifies the value of the GM's smarts.

There is more statistical evidence to suggest that Teams might have a string of luck with the draft but for the most part no one "drafts better" than anyone else.

You're talking about trading up vs trading down.

It's also about expected value of a draft pick. If you're expecting any qb you drsft to be manning, it's probably going to fail.

In the end, while there is alot of sense to it, there are to many variables that factor in to these situations and whether a draft pick becomes x or y, that isn't simply up to the player. Situation, philosphy, parts around him, offensive coordinator etc.

What's being used to determine "better" though?

At the time of the draft, these guys don't have hindsight to determine anything.

So, better, meaning performance Of draftee? Amount of years of service?

Eli Manning for instance.

The stats say yes, dumb trade.

But, they got a franchise qb and 2 super bowl wind, largely because of that trade.

So, in the end, again, depends how we determine better.

My point is, for every "good" trade you can find...historically I'll find more "bad" trades.

I don't know how they're defining "better" but I'm pretty sure they found a valid value or this would all be nonsense and not even a discussion.

I'd argue that they would have gotten the superbowls wins with Big ben and whatever other picks they saved because of it. They won their 2 bowls with defense and just enough offense to make it go.

Getting rid of Bowe means we have to go heavy at WR... Right??

It would really help if we could get even a third round pick for Bowe.

That's not going to happen. Andre Johnson is rumored to be available for a 5th or 6th, and Brandon Marshall is available for a 3rd or 4th. I'd take either of those guys over Bowe any day of the week, and twice on Sunday. All three will be cut and make it to the open market.

We should draft at least 2 Wrs in this draft, IMO, it's really strong at that position.

Trade up for Parker or just take Jaelen Strong in the 1st

Draft Agholor/Dorsett in the 2nd or Tre McBride in the 3rd

Dres Anderson in the 5th

Etc, etc. There are lots of WRs in this draft who will be, at the very least, solid #2-3 WRs.

High praise much?

With Rogers on the roster KC will most likely look for a number#1 WR and then KC will focus on the OL.

Dorsey pretty much gives away his secret to what he is looking for in a wr
http://espn.go.com/blog/kansas-city-...-wide-receiver
this is why I dont see a guy like DGB becoming a chief.
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profil...ham?id=2552491
what about Jaelen Strong?
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profil...ong?id=2552463
who would you consider to be the best route runners in the draft?
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...15-senior-bowl
Amari Cooper, phillip dorsett, nelson aghor, devante parker, rashad greene, tony lippett, tre'mcrbide are the other guys in the draft who have '+' route running.

Add Tyler Lockett to that mix too.

I guess so. I'm not thrilled with Lockett's small hands, but they are bigger then Deanthony thomas who Dorsey selected.

Any Jaelen Strong fans, here is a kid who is almost the same prospect, IMO. Dezmin Lewis. Can probably be had in the 3rd/4th.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/J3IsZVohw8M" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

The point is that Lockett is one of, if not the best, route runners in this class. I've heard it said from several analysts, and it's why he was always open at KState. Crisp routes along with his quickness and speed is a strong combination.

Who are the top 5 route runners in the draft?

Interesting stuff, thanks doc.

I think there is a strong chance that we take Agholor or Dorsett if either are there in the 2nd.

Dorsett = slightly less shifty Desean Jackson

Agholor = Jeremy Maclin or poor-man's Amari Cooper

If he's there in the 2nd . . .

Absolutely... Agholor has been my #6 wideout option for months. :D

I have no doubt one of either Dorsett, Agholor, Greene, Hardy, or Lockett will be a Chief.

I agree that it feels inevitable that one of these guys is a Chief next year.

Well knowing the Chiefs one of them will be on the board and we'll take a 3-4 DE or a runningback.

Nice article on Justin Hardy: http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-sh...214625186.html

Going to be interesting to see who we bring in as our #2 WR. I for one am hoping that guy is not currently on the roster.

How many WRs will be drafted in the first 50 picks or before our 2nd round pick?

Good question!

At this point I've accepted that the top 3 WR's will surely be gone before we pick at 18, and the only WR in the first I'm in favor of is DGB. He might be too much trouble for a 1st, and even he could be gone by the time we pick at 18. So many good WRs in this draft we are better off looking for #2 in the 2nd or 3rd.

For certain at least one of these guys will be available...Dorsett, Agholor, Greene, Hardy, or Lockett

Maybe even Smith or Perriman

I like Austin Hill a lot!

I'm not sure what to make of Dorsey's comments on WRs that Planetdoc linked to.

On the one hand it makes perfect sense to only go after guys that fit your system. On the other hand, maybe your system sucks and needs tweaking a bit.

It looks like if Maclin wasn't around they wouldn't have pursued any WR. That's kind of troubling.

Like Emanuel Sanders last offseason

I'd be a lot more confident if we had Maclin and Sanders on the roster

I can see about 8-9 of them going before our 2nd pick.

White
Cooper
Parker
Strong
DGB
Perriman
Dorsett
Agholor
Smith

Coates and Funchess may be in that mix as well, although I agree they're after your list. And that's when you start to get nervous about waiting until the 3rd to get an impact WR. Will Lockett, Hardy, McBride last until our 3rd round pick?

I don't think Funchess goes that early, too much bad tape and very poor showing at the Combine.

I think the third is when we'll get a wr.