Realistic expectations for Patrick Mahomes
 

I know in the hearts of every planeteer, Mahomes has already led us to multiple Super Bowls, and that this whole career thing is just a formality before his HOF induction ceremony, but what is everyone realistically looking for from him this season?

Maybe I'm just letting my battered fan syndrome take over, but I feel like we need to pump the brakes a little bit. He looked solid against Denver, sure, but he's still just a second year guy that was pretty raw coming out of college.

So, what kind of numbers would everyone be happy with? What kind of things will you all be personally looking for from him?

Lastly, if you think I'm being a pussy and need to shut up and buckle up for the Mahomes show, please hit me with your best neg rep. The funnier the better.

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anything over 3600 yards and under 20 INTs I would consider a success statistically.

Well not me....and I think it is a fairly moronic to assume anything about him at this point.

Even if he is good he will have growing pains...and this team won't be Super Bowl ready for at least two more seasons.

What that looks like statistically next season? I would hope he can manage something in the range of 3,500 yards 15-20 TDS and 8-12 INTs?

What I want is 4000 yards, 30 TD's 12 Int. What I realistically expect is 3200 yards 25 TD's 15 Int. That would be a disappointment to a lot of us. But I think that it would be good for a first year starter.

He's done the same things at every level so far. I think it will continue. Only with much better skill players.


He's going to blow this mother ****er apart

As a Chiefs fan, I have absolutely no expectations of him at all. I never, ever get my hopes up about anything this team does.

And i honestly think Reid thinks this too.

He's like a giddy little school girl.

Not exactly a word I would ever use to describe Andy...but ok

Realistic?

The best QB KC has ever had. By a mile.

5,000 yards.

Mahomes isn't a rookie. He's a 2nd year player. First year starters who struggle are usually rookies.

Going over-conservative with predictions is what you do with rookie QBs. Guys who are middle-of-the-road starters like QBs like Ryan Tannehill or Andy Dalton had those kind of low-3000 numbers with a high(ish) number of INTs.

Mahomes is going to throw for 4000 yards. He's going to be in a bunch of shootouts, and he's certainly got weapons.

His efficiency, ball security, and perhaps his TD numbers will perhaps be not very good, but his yards?

**** that. Dude's cracking 4000 easy.

Realistic? 3800 yards, 25 TDs and 14 INTs.

I expect him to do some amazing things. Like other worldly shit that mere mortals can’t even dream of.

I also expect some really bad INTs and miss some easy throws. If he does take some of the check downs Alex threw he will miss some because his feet aren’t as good as Alex’s.

I then expect a bunch of asshats to melt down about it.

This is right. He only needs 250 yards a game to get to 4000. He had 287 in his debut against a pretty good defense. I expect at least 4000 and I think we will consider 250 as a poor game for him.

I expect 4500 , 27 TDs and 12 ints.

and guess what. he gets to play with the 1's now. Kelce, Hill and Watkins.

ROFLROFLROFLROFLROFL


He played in ONE game!!!!!

What are you smoking

4K yards, no doubt. TD's/Ints? I'm not so certain. But 4K yards for sure.

i expect numbers slightly better than the previous years starter. maybe a couple more int's, but pats 44/10 ratio suggests he's not as reckless as some say?

more than 4000 yards passing without a doubt though. i see kc relying on the run game heavily to set up play action more, at least to start the year. :D

What's wrong about what I said? Did Rivers play like a rookie in his first year as a starter? Carson Palmer? Aaron Rodgers?

Maybe if you smoked something you might be better at concentrating on reading.

A year or more on the bench can be huge for a young QB, particularly a QB in a stable coaching environment with a decent supporting cast

Thats where I'm at, theres no need to put a number on it... I just believe the kid is gonna sizzle, sundays are about to become incredibly entertaining IMO

I don’t know what to expect. We’ve never been in this position during my fandom. I’m just excited about the ride!!

I don't know. If any of us did we would hopping on a plane to Vegas, bet accordingly and become millionaires in December.

The kid has all the physical tools and the personality to compliment the aforementioned. I'm as happy as a clam he's going to be starting and given the chance to take over the Chiefs and possibly become a star in the NFL that gets the calls because he draws in the fans and $$$.

All I ask in return for my 20 years of fandom is diplomatic immunity to punch band wagon fans in the face and that he tighten up that haircut dammit!!!

:cuss:

Actually, he can keep the haircut if he pulls off the rest of the deal.

I think SNR is right that you're discounting just how important that redshirt year was, it really helped him apply a layer a polish... and it showed in week 17

I was sooo against him starting there, sooo worried something would go bad with our backup O line and skill players... psshh, boy was I wrong

His first NFL start was on the road, against our most bitter rivals and their very good defense... and all he did was pull off a comeback win, if that doesnt bode well I dont know what does

4000yds, 26/14

Although he may exceed this because I have a feeling the Chiefs are going to be in some track meets this season.

Good chance the D isn't going to be able to stop shit this first yr of the Mahomes era.

Lets hope

Don't get me wrong, of course I liked what I saw....I think we all did.

Here's what I expect.

Over 3,500 yards.

Over 20 TD's.

Under 20 interceptions

over 7.2 yards per attempt.

10 or more wins.

Honestly, I think he'll exceed most of those numbers. In my mind, that's sandbagging. Maybe I'm overhyped, but I don't think so.

I honestly can't think of the last time a first year starter was in such an ideal situation.

Realistically?

Assuming he stays healthy, I expect Mahomes to top 5,000 passing yards.

In his first start, playing with scrubs against one of the best pass D's in the NFL, he put up 284 yards. Assuming that is an average game for him, he is already at 4,544 yards for the season. With scrubs. Against a good pass D.

To top 5,000 yards in a 16 game season, he would have to average 312 passing yards per game.

The question you have to ask yourself is whether or not you believe that Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce, and Kareem Hunt can contribute another 28 yards per game, on average, against typically lesser defenses.

Another way to think about it: Do you think that Mahomes, with those tools, can average about 26 passing yards per possession over the course of a season? Considering that he (so far) averages 8.11 yards per attempt, I think that over the course of a season, he can hit that mark with relative ease.

**** Alex smith and the wasted years of him being a chief.

I didn't realize this, but Derek Carr has never topped 4000 yards in a season.

It will be even more impressive when Mahomes does crack that number.

ROFL

I have a bad feeling this thread is going to get bumped next January for all the wrong reasons...

You realize that a QB has only gone over 5k yards 9 times in NFL history, and only 5 different QBs have ever done it, right? That would be a monumental achievement for any QB, much less a first time starter.

and PM2 will surpass 5k multiple times in his career where 4K will be underperforming for him:D

Marino did it in 84

Marino did it in 84

Sorry man, you can't say 'realistically' and then spend an entire post justifying a simple formula.

All you did was take a guy's first start and averaged it out over 16 games.

I'm not going average out a totally meaningless week 17 game against a 5-11 team that had given up and taken MOST of their defensive starters out by the start of the 3rd quarter over 16 games and then say 'realistic'.

Mahomes showed a lot, but c'mon. That's not a realistic way to think of anything. Even if you're right that's a terrible way to get to the conclusion.

I don't know about numbers but I think we'll need a lot of scoring/yards because the defense will suck this year. We could be the best offense in the league and still end up 10-6. I hope I'm wrong.

I think if Marino played in today's NFL he'd have 5000 yards every season he played.

13 QBs last year threw for over 3,500 yards. How many of those QBs had thetools that Mahomes will have at his disposal?

To say that Mahomes will throw for 3,500 yards is to say that he is, at best, a very, very average QB.....

I expect growing pains along with signs of whether he is the next best thing or another Todd Blackledge. As a fan that has watched this team try it the hard way, I am ready to watch them try it the easy way; grab a guy that hasn't been broken or given up on by another team.

I would like the Chiefs to win a Superbowl, more than that, I would like them to dominate the AFC instead of trying to compete and lose to what I would call lesser opponents.

I imagine he will still have some growing pains. He will probably break 3500 passing yards. He will probably be around 20 TDs. He will have almost as many INTs. He will have some "I shouldn't have thrown that" moments but he will give us more "How did he do that" moments.

I realize many fans overestimate how good Mahomes will be in his first year starting and underestimate the defense going into next year.

Or....a very very young QB who is managed very well by his experienced head coach.

I think most teams are going to force the Chiefs to run the ball....and Andy will take advantage of that.

Smart head coaches generally don't have their super young QB throwing the ball 35+ times a game.

Marino, Luck, and Manning are some of the few exceptions over the last 30 years...

Mahomes isn't scared, he has the physical tools to dominate at this level.

The unknown is his mental ability and I think we saw a sample of mental maturity in the Denver game.

Once Harris caught that first pass, it was on. Mahomes was locked and I don't think we have to worry about looking back.

The 48 year wait is over, enjoy it. This team is going to piss the NFL and the LA bandwagon off. They know it, that is why they started the schedule out 3 of 4 on the road.

It is all about LA but the Chiefs are going to spoil that party. 12-4 with a trip to the AFC championship game being the floor.

KnowShit? Is that you? Because this post sounds like the bullshit excuses he's been giving for why the Chiefs won in week 17. Don't forget. He had VonDouchebag coming after him on a lot of plays. There were more defensive starters for the Donks on the field the entire game than offensive first stringers on the field for Mahomes. He had to make due behind a backup offensive line, without having Kelce or Hill on the field to throw to and the running back to keep the defense honest was Sherman. Yet he still managed 284 yards and had the game in hand until Bray tried to give the game away. He then came back in, with VonDouchebag rushing him, and put the game away. That was pretty impressive.

Yet Reid had him throw it 35 times in his first/only start against the Broncos last season.

I'm not saying it's impossible, just extraordinarily unlikely. And definitely not "realistic" to expect 5k yards, which has never been done in a QBs first year as a starter.

Marino had 11 games of experience in the '83 season, so it also wasn't his first year starting.

Yep.

6 to 7 SB wins :D

You don't think Mahomes will put up an average of 59 more passing yards per game than Alex Smith?

Watkins averages 15.9 yds/catch
Hill averages 15.8
Kelce averages 12.7
Hunt averages 8.7

The Chiefs brass traded away Smith because they thought they could get more output from Mahomes; they doubled down on that bet by giving Watkins a big contract.

Its not just Mahomes; it is the weapons he has at his disposal. I think the Chiefs probably have the best set of offensive skill position players in the NFL.

Considering that across the NFL, teams have an average of 11.5 possessions per game, you're telling me that it is unrealistic to think that Mahomes will average 5 passing yards more per possession than Alex Smith?

I was (am) a big fan of Alex Smith, but the big difference between Mahomes and Smith is that Mahomes throws the ball *downfield*; he isn't looking for the dump-off, he is looking for the first down and more each and every time.

He sat for a year to learn, has a great offensive mi def coach and legit starting cast around him. No training wheels, it’s time to take off and be legi

The brakes do need to be pumped a bit. He'll be elite in time, but probably not 2018.

I expect 4k yards, 26 TD/14 INT year one. Chiefs go 8-8. His first year will be pretty similar to Aaron's.

That sounds like a small number, but if you factor in the likely increase in turnovers, those 5 yards per possession become much larger and difficult to attain.

Everybody says he's Brett Favre. Well, for a good chunk of Favre's career, he had many seasons where he didn't crack 4000. And factor in the consecutive games started- the guy never got hurt.

The 90s were a different era of football, which is why it's not at all a stretch to confidently predict 4000 for Mahomes in his first year. But that's as far as I'll go. Gunslinger does not always mean 5000 yards

Hell, Rodgers, who Mahomes has also been compared to, and a better QB than Favre, hasn't even threatened 5k. Only one season over 4500.

lead the offense to average 26 points or over would be a successful output too

Does that mean you think Brees is better than Rodgers?

I’d prefer not to see Mahomes over 5000 yards. That’d mean bad things about our complete lack of running game and no defense.

Brees is a lot better than he gets credit for. If Brady wasn’t doing what he has I think Brees would be in the conversation as best in the league for the last 10 years or so.

Rodgers is the only guy (Manning and Brady included) that I’d take over Brees as competitors of his era.

Not sure what that has to do with the conversation. I'm not using yardage as a singular indicator of anything, other than the likelihood of surpassing 5k yards in a season. Mahomes is often compared to both Rogers and Favre - strong arms, gunslinger mentality, pass-first offense. Neither QB has ever threatened 5k.

Brees is the ONLY QB to ever crest 5k yards more than once - he's done it 5 times. Didn't do it until his 8th year in the league.

Personally, I'd take Rodgers over Brees, but I wouldn't fault someone for choosing Brees.

Grew up around a father who was in pro sports, drafted by one of the best QB developers in football, spent time with one of the best OC’s his rookie year who is now a HC, sat a year learned from a veteran QB who was willing to help him...and finally will have 2 pro bowl receivers, pro bowl TE, pro bowl RB and a solid pass protecting OL.

I can’t think of a better situation in any time in league history for any young QB to step in and start his career.

Environment is the most predictable element for any young QB. Look at every good young QB. Wentz had below average numbers his first year and then looked amazing year 2 bc the Eagles stocked a ton of talent around him. Same with Goff. Watson and Dak walked into talented teams and look at what they did?

I will be shocked if Mahomes (barring injury) has less than 30 TD’s and 4,000 yards. Jared ****ing Goff didn’t have as good of surrounding receivers and was in his first year with McVay and he had 3,800 yards and 28 TD’s. Yup I think Mahomes can top that bc he has a higher ceiling and better environment.

DeShaun Watson was on pace to throw 17 INT’s last season and nobody gave a shit about it. I think you’ll see very similar things from Mahomes this year that you saw from Watson last year.

If I had to guess, I’d say something around 34 TD’s, 16 INT’s and 4,400 yards.

I feel pretty confident saying Mahomes will throw for over 30 tds. Thats two per game average. He doesn't have the redzone limitations Smith had. The ints are the real x factor. He will throw more than Smith did but he will also score more.

I think it is hard to compare Mahomes to just about anyone. I think he will be elite, but what I think sets him apart from other QBs and why I think that 5K is realistic is the fact that there isn't any QB in the league with as many weapons at his disposal as Patrick Mahomes--and those weapons are perfectly suited for Mahomes' strengths.

A 4,000 yard season isn't that big of a deal anymore; 8 QBs got 4,000 yards last year--and none of them have the type of weapons that KC currently possesses.

Any other team, and I would venture that Mahomes is a 3,600-4,000 yard passer.

This. Mahomes is in a truly unique situation in KC.

Rodgers is no better than Favre, one Super Bowl win apiece

All other stats are skewed due to different eras with much different rules

4000-4200 yards, 30+ TD, 15- INT, 60% completion.

Reasons.
--Ultra talented, smart, reportedly a good grasp for the offense and leader.
--Weapons galore. Possibly the best collection of skill position talent in the NFL.
--Reid will make sure he succeeds.
--Defense is average at best. Key injuries, like Berry, and the flood gates will open again. There will be a lot of shootouts.

He's going to have one of the best supporting casts in the NFL and a coach that will let him throw on 4th and inches.

I expect he'll lead an even better offense than what we saw last year.

Super bowl

ROFL

Sir you go get that man a ham n cheese sandwich!!

Rodgers is better than Favre. Wayyyyyyy better.

Are all the shit QBs who have won a single Super Bowl are just as good as Favre/Rodgers?

I mean, if that's your only criteria...

Not even reading through this thread, but I'll throw my numbers at the wall.

4,200 passing yards

28 TD passes

12 Interceptions

200 rushing yards with 3 rushing TDs

63% completion percent

I agree it's not realistic, but Pat didn't play the full game either. He could have gone well over 300 yards if they kept him in there instead of putting Bray in. That's also without Kelce/Hill in the receiver group.

That said, I am just hoping he can play smart and avoid injuries. He played pretty much his entire college career with some form of injury. Bad knee injury early in 2015 caused him to limp his way through the last 9 games of the season. Bad throwing shoulder injury early in 2016 made him a different guy for the rest of that season as well. Concussion in 2014. Broken wrist in 2016. And so on.

He plays the game very hard. Takes some big hits that he needs to avoid. I just want to see smart decisions and good health from him in his first season at the NFL level. If he can learn to protect himself, I believe the sky will be the limit during his career.

You ****ing idiot, it's a fact that the LB's played almost every snap of that game but the DL and DB's didn't. That's reality. It has nothing to do with 'knowmo' or bronco fans. Jesus. Look up the snap counts and stop being offended by reality. Nobody is saying Mahomes was shit or that nothing he did mattered. I'm saying you can't just say "Well, now that he's had one start in week 17 against a 5-10 team that sat most of it's defensive starters in a meaningless game we can average that production out across his whole career!"

It's reeruned to average out 1 game against a 5-10 team playing a bunch of back ups in week 17. Do you disagree, or are you just being an asshole?

The fact that it was mostly Mahomes and back ups vs. Bronco back up DB's and DL only reinforces the point I"m making. The dynamics will be entirely different.

Christ this board is going full homer if I'm being called out for saying it probably isn't realistic to average a rookie's first start across an entire season (and adding selected stats on a whim). Will he also throw 0 TD's and 16 INT's? C'mon. I'm 100% on the kid's wagon, but I"m not going to predict a 5K 50 TD season. Sorry for being 'pessimistic'.

Anything less than 5 superbowl wins in his first year is going to be a dissapointment.

I believe Alex Smith was holding back Tyreek Hill there is no reason he can't be getting 10+ touchdowns a season. With Mahomes I predict an average of 15 a season next five years or better.

4,500 yards. 35 TD's. 11 interceptions.

The only thing that will hold him back is if our D is good. And, I don't expect that to happen this year.

Watkins, Hill, Hunt, and Kelce. Hill (RBs) 5-6 td's, the others 7-10. That puts you in the 30 to low 30's range for td's. 3800-4000 puts him in the top half of QB's. 16-20 int's gives a bad (3+) game, a few not good (2-3) int games and mostly good (0-1) games. So 31 td's, 3900 yds and 18 int's. Throw in 1500 yds rushing among the RB's and you get close to 5500 total yards.

Expectations; none.
Hopes; the promised land.
Reality; Just survive,stay alive and healthy and dont pull a 'Blackledge' PLEASE!!!

4,000 yards, 30 TD, 15 INT

I disagree. Favre threw tons of ints that lost games. 4 times he threw the losing int in a playoff game. Aaron's problem us they give him shit defenses. He way better than Favre.

Better than Alex Smith's best year.