ChiefsPlanet - Chiefs Realistic expectations for Patrick Mahomes

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Realistic expectations for Patrick Mahomes (https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=315036)

I think it is hard to compare Mahomes to just about anyone. I think he will be elite, but what I think sets him apart from other QBs and why I think that 5K is realistic is the fact that there isn't any QB in the league with as many weapons at his disposal as Patrick Mahomes--and those weapons are perfectly suited for Mahomes' strengths.

A 4,000 yard season isn't that big of a deal anymore; 8 QBs got 4,000 yards last year--and none of them have the type of weapons that KC currently possesses.

Any other team, and I would venture that Mahomes is a 3,600-4,000 yard passer.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC (Post 13526544)

Grew up around a father who was in pro sports, drafted by one of the best QB developers in football, spent time with one of the best OC’s his rookie year who is now a HC, sat a year learned from a veteran QB who was willing to help him...and finally will have 2 pro bowl receivers, pro bowl TE, pro bowl RB and a solid pass protecting OL.

I can’t think of a better situation in any time in league history for any young QB to step in and start his career.

Environment is the most predictable element for any young QB. Look at every good young QB. Wentz had below average numbers his first year and then looked amazing year 2 bc the Eagles stocked a ton of talent around him. Same with Goff. Watson and Dak walked into talented teams and look at what they did?

I will be shocked if Mahomes (barring injury) has less than 30 TD’s and 4,000 yards. Jared ****ing Goff didn’t have as good of surrounding receivers and was in his first year with McVay and he had 3,800 yards and 28 TD’s. Yup I think Mahomes can top that bc he has a higher ceiling and better environment.

DeShaun Watson was on pace to throw 17 INT’s last season and nobody gave a shit about it. I think you’ll see very similar things from Mahomes this year that you saw from Watson last year.

If I had to guess, I’d say something around 34 TD’s, 16 INT’s and 4,400 yards.

This. Mahomes is in a truly unique situation in KC.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shag (Post 13526498)

Hell, Rodgers, who Mahomes has also been compared to, and a better QB than Favre, hasn't even threatened 5k. Only one season over 4500.

Rodgers is no better than Favre, one Super Bowl win apiece

All other stats are skewed due to different eras with much different rules

4000-4200 yards, 30+ TD, 15- INT, 60% completion.

Reasons.
--Ultra talented, smart, reportedly a good grasp for the offense and leader.
--Weapons galore. Possibly the best collection of skill position talent in the NFL.
--Reid will make sure he succeeds.
--Defense is average at best. Key injuries, like Berry, and the flood gates will open again. There will be a lot of shootouts.

He's going to have one of the best supporting casts in the NFL and a coach that will let him throw on 4th and inches.

I expect he'll lead an even better offense than what we saw last year.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AssEaterChief (Post 13526339)

Not exactly a word I would ever use to describe Andy...but ok

ROFL

Sir you go get that man a ham n cheese sandwich!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Easy 6 (Post 13526637)

Rodgers is no better than Favre, one Super Bowl win apiece

All other stats are skewed due to different eras with much different rules

Rodgers is better than Favre. Wayyyyyyy better.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Easy 6 (Post 13526637)

Rodgers is no better than Favre, one Super Bowl win apiece

All other stats are skewed due to different eras with much different rules

Are all the shit QBs who have won a single Super Bowl are just as good as Favre/Rodgers?

I mean, if that's your only criteria...

Not even reading through this thread, but I'll throw my numbers at the wall.

4,200 passing yards

28 TD passes

12 Interceptions

200 rushing yards with 3 rushing TDs

63% completion percent

Quote:

Originally Posted by WhiteWhale (Post 13526435)

Sorry man, you can't say 'realistically' and then spend an entire post justifying a simple formula.

All you did was take a guy's first start and averaged it out over 16 games.

I'm not going average out a totally meaningless week 17 game against a 5-11 team that had given up and taken MOST of their defensive starters out by the start of the 3rd quarter over 16 games and then say 'realistic'.

Mahomes showed a lot, but c'mon. That's not a realistic way to think of anything. Even if you're right that's a terrible way to get to the conclusion.

I agree it's not realistic, but Pat didn't play the full game either. He could have gone well over 300 yards if they kept him in there instead of putting Bray in. That's also without Kelce/Hill in the receiver group.

That said, I am just hoping he can play smart and avoid injuries. He played pretty much his entire college career with some form of injury. Bad knee injury early in 2015 caused him to limp his way through the last 9 games of the season. Bad throwing shoulder injury early in 2016 made him a different guy for the rest of that season as well. Concussion in 2014. Broken wrist in 2016. And so on.

He plays the game very hard. Takes some big hits that he needs to avoid. I just want to see smart decisions and good health from him in his first season at the NFL level. If he can learn to protect himself, I believe the sky will be the limit during his career.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjchieffan (Post 13526457)

KnowShit? Is that you? Because this post sounds like the bullshit excuses he's been giving for why the Chiefs won in week 17. Don't forget. He had VonDouchebag coming after him on a lot of plays. There were more defensive starters for the Donks on the field the entire game than offensive first stringers on the field for Mahomes. He had to make due behind a backup offensive line, without having Kelce or Hill on the field to throw to and the running back to keep the defense honest was Sherman. Yet he still managed 284 yards and had the game in hand until Bray tried to give the game away. He then came back in, with VonDouchebag rushing him, and put the game away. That was pretty impressive.

You ****ing idiot, it's a fact that the LB's played almost every snap of that game but the DL and DB's didn't. That's reality. It has nothing to do with 'knowmo' or bronco fans. Jesus. Look up the snap counts and stop being offended by reality. Nobody is saying Mahomes was shit or that nothing he did mattered. I'm saying you can't just say "Well, now that he's had one start in week 17 against a 5-10 team that sat most of it's defensive starters in a meaningless game we can average that production out across his whole career!"

It's reeruned to average out 1 game against a 5-10 team playing a bunch of back ups in week 17. Do you disagree, or are you just being an asshole?

The fact that it was mostly Mahomes and back ups vs. Bronco back up DB's and DL only reinforces the point I"m making. The dynamics will be entirely different.

Christ this board is going full homer if I'm being called out for saying it probably isn't realistic to average a rookie's first start across an entire season (and adding selected stats on a whim). Will he also throw 0 TD's and 16 INT's? C'mon. I'm 100% on the kid's wagon, but I"m not going to predict a 5K 50 TD season. Sorry for being 'pessimistic'.

Anything less than 5 superbowl wins in his first year is going to be a dissapointment.

I believe Alex Smith was holding back Tyreek Hill there is no reason he can't be getting 10+ touchdowns a season. With Mahomes I predict an average of 15 a season next five years or better.

4,500 yards. 35 TD's. 11 interceptions.

The only thing that will hold him back is if our D is good. And, I don't expect that to happen this year.