I'm not saying it's impossible, just extraordinarily unlikely. And definitely not "realistic" to expect 5k yards, which has never been done in a QBs first year as a starter.

Marino had 11 games of experience in the '83 season, so it also wasn't his first year starting.

Yep.

6 to 7 SB wins :D

You don't think Mahomes will put up an average of 59 more passing yards per game than Alex Smith?

Watkins averages 15.9 yds/catch
Hill averages 15.8
Kelce averages 12.7
Hunt averages 8.7

The Chiefs brass traded away Smith because they thought they could get more output from Mahomes; they doubled down on that bet by giving Watkins a big contract.

Its not just Mahomes; it is the weapons he has at his disposal. I think the Chiefs probably have the best set of offensive skill position players in the NFL.

Considering that across the NFL, teams have an average of 11.5 possessions per game, you're telling me that it is unrealistic to think that Mahomes will average 5 passing yards more per possession than Alex Smith?

I was (am) a big fan of Alex Smith, but the big difference between Mahomes and Smith is that Mahomes throws the ball *downfield*; he isn't looking for the dump-off, he is looking for the first down and more each and every time.

He sat for a year to learn, has a great offensive mi def coach and legit starting cast around him. No training wheels, it’s time to take off and be legi

The brakes do need to be pumped a bit. He'll be elite in time, but probably not 2018.

I expect 4k yards, 26 TD/14 INT year one. Chiefs go 8-8. His first year will be pretty similar to Aaron's.

That sounds like a small number, but if you factor in the likely increase in turnovers, those 5 yards per possession become much larger and difficult to attain.

Everybody says he's Brett Favre. Well, for a good chunk of Favre's career, he had many seasons where he didn't crack 4000. And factor in the consecutive games started- the guy never got hurt.

The 90s were a different era of football, which is why it's not at all a stretch to confidently predict 4000 for Mahomes in his first year. But that's as far as I'll go. Gunslinger does not always mean 5000 yards

Hell, Rodgers, who Mahomes has also been compared to, and a better QB than Favre, hasn't even threatened 5k. Only one season over 4500.

lead the offense to average 26 points or over would be a successful output too

Does that mean you think Brees is better than Rodgers?

I’d prefer not to see Mahomes over 5000 yards. That’d mean bad things about our complete lack of running game and no defense.

Brees is a lot better than he gets credit for. If Brady wasn’t doing what he has I think Brees would be in the conversation as best in the league for the last 10 years or so.

Rodgers is the only guy (Manning and Brady included) that I’d take over Brees as competitors of his era.

Not sure what that has to do with the conversation. I'm not using yardage as a singular indicator of anything, other than the likelihood of surpassing 5k yards in a season. Mahomes is often compared to both Rogers and Favre - strong arms, gunslinger mentality, pass-first offense. Neither QB has ever threatened 5k.

Brees is the ONLY QB to ever crest 5k yards more than once - he's done it 5 times. Didn't do it until his 8th year in the league.

Personally, I'd take Rodgers over Brees, but I wouldn't fault someone for choosing Brees.

Grew up around a father who was in pro sports, drafted by one of the best QB developers in football, spent time with one of the best OC’s his rookie year who is now a HC, sat a year learned from a veteran QB who was willing to help him...and finally will have 2 pro bowl receivers, pro bowl TE, pro bowl RB and a solid pass protecting OL.

I can’t think of a better situation in any time in league history for any young QB to step in and start his career.

Environment is the most predictable element for any young QB. Look at every good young QB. Wentz had below average numbers his first year and then looked amazing year 2 bc the Eagles stocked a ton of talent around him. Same with Goff. Watson and Dak walked into talented teams and look at what they did?

I will be shocked if Mahomes (barring injury) has less than 30 TD’s and 4,000 yards. Jared ****ing Goff didn’t have as good of surrounding receivers and was in his first year with McVay and he had 3,800 yards and 28 TD’s. Yup I think Mahomes can top that bc he has a higher ceiling and better environment.

DeShaun Watson was on pace to throw 17 INT’s last season and nobody gave a shit about it. I think you’ll see very similar things from Mahomes this year that you saw from Watson last year.

If I had to guess, I’d say something around 34 TD’s, 16 INT’s and 4,400 yards.

I feel pretty confident saying Mahomes will throw for over 30 tds. Thats two per game average. He doesn't have the redzone limitations Smith had. The ints are the real x factor. He will throw more than Smith did but he will also score more.