Mock 1/23/19
 

Just having some fun for shits and giggles...

The Chiefs fire Bob Sutton in the offseason and hire Steve Spagnuolo, a former Reid assistant, and Jim Johnson protege, as defensive coordinator. (This is a carryover from last mock, so far 1/2 is true).

Chiefs beginning cap space of $42,967,636 using estimate of $190,000,000 salary cap per OTC (NFL stated range of $187.0 to 191.1 million).

Extensions

WR Tyreek Hill: It's imperative to lock up the team's most dynamic player long-term and give Mahomes a weapon for the foreseeable future. Hill must be retained and he won't get cheaper.
5 years/$95.0m contract extension with $65m in guarantees, $42m guaranteed at signing, and $20m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 6.13 2020: 18.75 2021: 19.25 2022: 19.75 2023: 18.25 2024: 15.00
Notes: Hill will earn the NFL Proven Performance Escalator for the last year of his rookie deal which means his base salary will increase to the Right of First Refusal tender amount. That amount was $1.907 million in 2018 and increases by the percentage the cap increases with a minimum of 5% and a maximum of 10%. The NFL has stated a cap range between $187.0 and $191.1 million, which means Tyreek's 2019 salary will be between $2.012 and $2.056 million. I will err on the high side at 2.056 for tenders and PPEs.

DL Chris Jones: I've been preaching the same thing Andy Reid mentioned not too long ago: the quickest route to the QB is a straight line and having defensive lineman that can get after them up the middle is better than good edge rushers in today's NFL that sees QBs get the ball out quicker than ever. Jones has stepped up his game considerably and we should project that to continue.
5 years, $81.0m contract extension with $40.0m guaranteed at signing including $20.0m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 5.98 2020: 13.00 2021: 15.00 2022: 16.00 2023: 17.00 2024: 16.00

Note: These moves and Tyreek's performance escalator reduce 2019 cap space by $9.336m. Both extensions done after June 1 (noted later).

Tags/Tenders
FS Jordan Lucas: RFA Original Round Tender estimated $2.05m (Hoping KC reaches an extension agreement to lower the hit)
DL Justin Hamilton: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
PK Harrison Butker: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
WR Markus Kemp: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
WR Gehrig Deiter: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus


Cuts

SS Eric Berry: Eric Berry, despite his leadership, has been available far less than a player making his salary should be. It's time to move on and get guys in here that are available. The move is a June 1st designation which frees up an additional $9.55m in 2019 after June 1 and $5.50m in 2020 with dead money of $6.95m in 2019 and $8.00m in 2020. This cap space used to sign extensions noted above.

SS Daniel Sorensen: Sorensen hasn't been much of an asset since signing his extension, routinely missing tackles and being subpar in coverage assignments. The Chiefs ailments in the back end are extensive and require re-tooling. The move frees up an additional $2.693m in cap space in 2019 and $4.75m in 2020 with dead money of $2.0m in 2019.

FA Acquisitions

DL Rodney Gunter (ARZ): Gunter has started to look like a good football player in 2018 and seems to have the work ethic to continue ascending. The Cardinals are in a huge state of flux with coaching changes coming and it will be interesting to see who they try to retain. While Gunter should be on that list, I've also seen alot of players hit the market during such situations that I didn't expect to. Gunter is a big guy at 6'5" 305 and he's got good quickness off the snap and speed to close. I have him valued similarly to Abry Jones(4-yrs/15.5m) and Justin Ellis (3-yrs/13.5m)
[I]4 years, $17.75m with $4.00m signing bonus and $6.75m fully guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 4.00 2020 4.25 2021 4.75 2022 4.75

ED Preston Smith (WAS): Smith is a very solid run defender and gets a ton of pressure on the QB despite less than eye-popping sack totals. He's the type of edge player this team needs on the outside to help stop the bleeding in the run game. He shouldn't command the type of contract that Dee Ford will with his gaudy sack total that will make some GM's go gaga. I think a Whitney Mercilus-type deal taken to current cap dollars is his value.
4 years, $35.00m with $7.00m signing bonus and $13.40m fully guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 8.25 2020: 8.25 2021 8.75 2022: 9.75

CB Ronald Darby (PHI): Darby is a bit of a gamble coming off an ACL injury, but if he's on track in March he could still see a pay day similar to Allen Robinson. I'm going to go all out here and sign him to a lucrative deal that has some protections in it should the Chiefs need to release him after one season. He's a far better corner than anyone on this board seems to want to admit and is becoming one of the better all-around corners in the NFL, plus he's still only 25 with his prime ahead of him.
5 years/$65.5m with $16.5m guaranteed, a $10.5m signing bonus, and $14.25m in potential additional guarantees including roster bonuses of $3.0m in 2020 and $4.0m in 2021 as well as a salary guarantee of $7.25m in 2020 if he's on the roster the 5th day of those respective league years. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 8.25 2020: 12.50 2021: 13.75 2022: 14.75 2023: 16.25

TE Maxx Williams (BAL): Williams has had alot of injuries throughout his career but he's still extremely young and has flashed what made him a high round pick. He'd make an excellent number two type with solid hands, route running, and blocking ability.
3 years/$9.0m with $1.5m signing bonus, and $1.0m roster bonuses in 2020 and 2021 if he's on the roster the 5th day of the new league year. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 2.00 2020: 3.25 2021: 3.75

RB T.J. Yeldon (JAX): Yeldon is a nice complimentary back that really excels in the passing game and could be a sure-fire weapon under Andy Reid, especially given his penchant for using backs on screens and down the field. Yeldon may look for a starting gig but if there are no takers, he's going to have plenty of options to be part of a committee once again and there may not be a better fit for him.
2 years/$4.5m with $1.4m signing bonus and $1.9m guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.75 2020: 2.75

S Andrew Adams (TB): I've been high on Adams since he left UConn and every time he gets a shot to play he does well. He doesn't have many starts with only 4 in each of the past two seasons, but he'd be a nice cheap safety to bring in and compete for a starting gig and at worst should be solid depth.
2 years/$4.0m with $1.0m signing bonus and $1.5m guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.80 2020: 2.20

ED Shane Ray (DEN): Ray was on track to be a good contributor and at worst a hell of a situational pass rusher until a wrist injury and subsequent surgeries derailed his career. If he is indeed past that injury and can start putting muscle back on this offseason, then he could be a low risk, low salary, prospect as a situational rusher in KC.
2 years/$4.0m with $700k signing bonus, $1.1m guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.90 2020: 2.10

Notes:
I fully expect the Vikings to cut SS Andrew Sendejo so that they can put a 1st round tender on SS Anthony Harris and then kick the can down the road a bit on Everson Griffen's contract by converting some salary to bonus money so they can re-sign some other players. That all said, if they put an original round tender on Harris, I'd put an offer in on him. He was incredible this year and is young enough to make it worthwhile.

Re-signings

FB Anthony Sherman: Sherman is one of the better fullbacks in the league and is excellent on special teams. His volume of usage offensively gives me pause, but if there's space to sign him then I'd undoubtedly do so.
4 years/$8.4m with $5.0m guaranteed and $2.4m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.90 2020: 2.00 2021: 2.20 2022: 2.30

All PS on Minimal Deals that likely don't affect Top-51.

Let Walk

DE Allen Bailey, CB Orlando Scandrick, TE Demetrius Harris, FS Josh Shaw, RB Spencer Ware, OC Mitch Morse, FS Ron Parker, WR De'Anthony Thomas, OLB Frank Zombo, CB Steven Nelson, ILB Terrence Smith, WR Chris Conley

Players Already Signed Notes & Guesstimates
Damien Williams: OTC released details of the Williams extension, noting that it was 2 years, 5.1m with cap hits of 1.73 and 2.83 million in 2019 and 2020 respectively. Initial reports were that the contract was for an extra 3 million, so I'm wondering if there are missing details on unlikely to be earned performance escalators of 1.5m in each year. Either way, unlikely to be earned don't count against the cap and this saves on my estimate by about 1.3m per.

Austin Reiter: The extension for Reiter was released a couple weeks back and for all intensive purposes has cap hits of 1.46 and 2.76 million in 2019 and 2020 respectively.

Trades

The Chiefs franchise tag Dee Ford at the onset of free agency, then trade him to the Green Bay Packers along with their 2nd round pick from the Rams for a 2019 1st #30 (from Saints) and 2019 4th ~118 (from Redskins)

Cap Estimate Net of Transactions: 4.6m pre-June 1 / 6.1m post-June 1

Draft

Chiefs have a projected 6th round compensatory selection for Bennie Logan.

1. LB Mack Wilson, Alabama (6'1" 239)
1. CB Trayvon Mullen, Clemson (6'1" 190) [f/GB - Ford]
2. OL Michael Deiter, Wisconsin (6'5" 304)
3. SS Juan Thornhill, Virginia (6'1" 205)
4. WR Gary Jennings Jr., West Virginia(6'1" 215) [f/GB - Ford]
5. RB Elijah Holyfield, Georgia (5'10" 215)
6. FS Kareem Orr, Chattanooga (5'11" 195)
6. TE Kahale Warring, San Diego State (6'5" 250) [Comp - Logan]
7. WR Tony Brooks-James, Oregon (was RB) (5'9" 180) [f/SF - Streater]


Roster (Not representative of 53)

QB: Patrick Mahomes, Chad Henne, Chase Litton
RB: Damien Williams, T.J. Yeldon, Elijah Holyfield, Darrel Williams
FB: Anthony Sherman
TE: Travis Kelce, Maxx Williams, Kahale Warring
WR: Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, Gary Jennings Jr., Byron Pringle, Tony Brooks-James, Marcus Kemp, Gehrig Deiter
OT: Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz, Andrew Wylie (OG)
OG: Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Michael Deiter (OT), Cameron Erving (OC), Ryan Hunter, Khalil McKenzie
OC: Austin Reiter, Jimmy Murray
DE: Chris Jones, Rodney Gunter, Joey Ivie
NT: Derrick Nnadi, Xavier Williams, Justin Hamilton
ED: Justin Houston, Preston Smith, Breeland Speaks, Shane Ray, Tanoh Kpassagnon, Rob McCray
LB: Anthony Hitchens, Mack Wilson, Dorian O'Daniel, Ben Niemann, Reggie Ragland
CB: Ronald Darby, Kendall Fuller, Trayvon Mullen, Charvarius Ward, Tremon Smith, D'Montre Wade
DS: Juan Thornhill, Andrew Adams, Jordan Lucas, Armani Watts, Kareem Orr, Eric Murray
ST: Harrison Butker, Dustin Colquitt, James Winchester

Man that would be a pretty nice offseason

Not too shabby. I like the first 4 draft picks.
Just not sure how defensive free agents or draft picks are good or not at this point due to the unknown of who the DC will be.

Never mind. I now see you assumed Spags as DC.
I’m and idiot...

I really like that look. Thanks.

Hopefully we can achieve those contract numbers.

I really think Jones is going to shoot for Donald money knowing he’s going to have to settle for a little less. But I think he’s going to push hard for Donald money.

Awesome

Yeah, that would work. I think TJ Yeldon would be lethal in this offense with his ability to catch the ball. Shane Ray, though? Especially if we go 4-3 under?

The Dee Ford trade is just ok and eh being the rehabilitation center for Darby doesn't sound interesting to me. I think they could do better than what would equal out to a 2+5 for Dee Ford, but would only really be an addition of a single pick that they would turn around and use on a corner they could draft with their original choice anyhow.

I don’t know much about Mack Wilson, but that guy looked worse than Reggie Ragland in the national championship game. He was god awful.

I would switch out Tony Brooks-James, because all of Oregon's WR were awful, for James Williams (Wazzu) to convert to a slot WR. He played RB in an Air Raid so is used to coming out of the backfield and pass blocking too so he has some versatility.

appreciate the work and detail within.

I think it's plausible other than-I doubt we get a #1 on any tag and trade for Ford. It'd be great if we do, I just doubt it. I think a late #2 or a #3 is more likely. But hey, who knows.

Also-with two guys that have shown they're starter material and a 2nd year guy that's looked good in spots AND the fact that it appears for the most part that Reid can scheme backs into being weapons I don't see the need or wisdom in trading for any other NFL FA RB's. I'd much rather spend any actual cap money on positions of need and not a 3rd guy for the stable. I'd totally draft a guy in the mid rounds if there's a player there who's skillset Reid likes.

But really, minor quibbles. Nice work.

He sent Ford and a 2 to get a 1 and 4. I think that is doable.

Like...

But sign me for the game against the Pats, I'll beat Tom's knees a'la Nancy Kerrigan, then just run up the tunnel.

That is one ambitious and optimistic offseason; I extend a tip of my cap to you sir.

I will be doing backflips if this comes to fruition.

Save for Darby.

I don't think he's very good.

If they could get that for Ford, just take that pick and trade it for Ramsey or Patrick Peterson or somethin.g

STOOOOOOP!!!!!!

Seriously, do I have to put the whole 'Berry's 2019 salary is nearly fully guaranteed on the 3rd day of the league year' thing in my signature?

In what world do any of you think we're actually going to be able to cut him by then? He's not going to pass the standard player's physical, it will be attributed (rightly or wrongly) to a football injury and we will NOT be able to cut him absent an injury settlement. Dude's money is effectively guaranteed for 2019 at that point.

Seriously - I'd love to get him cut but that !@#$ing guarantee in 2019 is going to hamstring us. We're not getting rid of him because he milked that !@#$ing injury for all it's worth.

"I can't really talk about it..." = his representation knew exactly how to make sure that salary gets paid in 2019. Dude's going under the knife and he's not going to be ready to pass a physical by the first week of March. Once that comes/goes, we be ****ed regarding Eric Berry.

People really want to ignore the obvious, I guess.

Joel Corry is on 610. Basically said you're looking at a minimum of the Fletcher Cox deal for Chris Jones.

He said that they're going to have to look at either trading or cutting Houston. He can't stay healthy.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">&quot;The <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Chiefs?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Chiefs</a> don&#39;t have the cap space to do what the Rams did last year. That&#39;s going to be a tough proposition.&quot; - <a href="https://twitter.com/corryjoel?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@corryjoel</a> on <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/TheDrive?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#TheDrive</a> <a href="https://t.co/3O0xq33UHB">pic.twitter.com/3O0xq33UHB</a></p>&mdash; 610 Sports Radio (@610SportsKC) <a href="https://twitter.com/610SportsKC/status/1088536099440549888?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 24, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Austin-Seferian Jenkins released.

Don't be stupid. Most NFL contracts are only guaranteed for injury as a result of playing football in an NFL game. Berry is a non-football injury. I highly doubt his contract guarantees. I'd actually be extremely surprised if it did. And, as far as your 3rd day concern goes, you cut that mother****er the 1st second of the new league year.

I suppose it is a discussion worth having. Is what he has a football injury? I don’t know the rules on this shit.

I just assumed it was a football injury and we are ****ed because Chiefs.

Haglund's Deformity is 100% non-football related. It's a bony protrusion similar to a bone spur that forms on the back of the heel underneath the Achille's tendon. The Achilles rubbing on the spur causes pain and discomfort. The only "football" part is that cleats could cause more irritation than a normal pair of shoes with a softer back. That is not the cause of the deformity. It's not really an "injury" at all. It's a natural thing Berry's body did. Him not wearing certain kinds of shoes, like cleats, should help with the pain as would surgical removal of the spur. This has absolutely nothing to do with anything football other than playing football can make it more irritating.

well, I hope you're right and that's how it goes down. We need to move on at any rate; it's unlikely Berry plays meaningful football again, as I've been saying since like week 4.

Yeah. I’d agree. But knowing the Chiefs there is some ****ing obscure rule about the length of time and the NFI list of some shit.

[Sigh]

You. Can't. Cut. Him. If. He. Can't. Pass. A. Physical.

The guarantee is just a guarantee on day 3. Not for injury or performance or any other qualifier - just a guarantee. But if a player cannot pass a standard player physical as a result of a football related surgery, you can't cut him. He wont pass by day 3 so your 'cut him on day 1' nonsense is prohibited.

There's a ZERO percent chance that his injury will be declared non-football related. Zero. If the chiefs thought that were a possibility they'd have put him on the NFI list and avoided his cap hit for this season.

What would you like to place on this? Hes getting the surgery, it will prohibit the Chiefs from cutting him and we're stuck with his salary in 2019.

You're just flat ****ing wrong here. Any one of your drafts that involves cutting Berry is a waste if your time and anyone who reads it.

You're right, EXCEPT that I'm not sure this would count as a football injury. I think if it does NOT count as a football injury, they're off the hook. It'll be interesting to see how this shakes out.

I don't think Berry and his people would have any issue convincing a likely arbitrator (I'm sure that's what would end up happening) that the injury was exacerbated and/or compounded by years of playing football. Afterall, it wasn't an issue when he was at TN or even for the first several years of his career. Then suddenly it pops up.

I know you run into a causation/correlation problem here, but I'd be stunned if an arbitrator ruled that this was unrelated to his football career. There's going to be enough smoke there that they'll see fire.

I don’t completely understand why people want Mack Wilson, what’s the difference between him and Ragland? They seem like the same player to me.

Yep. I can't believe people think the Chiefs could wiggle their way out of it LMAO

I'm not saying Eric can't play the part of the victim and get a favorable ruling, but they'd have to really want it to say "football" did this, it can't just be life.

https://www.foothealthfacts.org/cond...%99s-deformity

But I sure wouldn't put any of this beyond what Berry would do to the team...

If it doesn't have an injury qualifier then you're blowing smoke out your own ass. Even if it DOES have an injury qualifier, it HAS to be FOOTBALL RELATED. If you want proof of what I'm talking about, here's an SEC archive of a player contract clause:

LMAO

All he has to do is tell an arbitrator that it was a result from wearing cleats and the Chiefs are sunk. He's not going anywhere for at least one more year.

I don’t really want to rely on Reiter at center

I’d like to keep Morse but that isn’t likely I guess so I’d draft one pretty high

It’s plausible that if Khalil McKenzie shows good development that he slides in at either LG or C, letting Erving play the other.

I think Khalil is going to be pretty good.

Its GOING to be football related. **** me, do you really not understand how easy this will be?

"I had to tape my ankles to deal with instability after my injuries..."

That will literally be all it takes. You're welcome to waste as much time as you want jerking yourself off to this idea but I'll bet you $100 the Chiefs either A) dont even try because they know they dont have a chance or B) get SMOKED in an arb hearing.

Two people that don't understand what "football related" actually means. This deformity was not caused by playing football. It has, literally, nothing to do with playing football. The fact that playing football can make it worse has no bearing whatsoever on what the issue actually is. It's the same thing if a player has a heart condition that wasn't found, then is found after he's been playing ball, and can no longer play. The heart condition wasn't caused by football, it was natural. Playing football could make it worse. **** me if I can't pound that through your ****ing skulls.

Either way, it's whatever, the Chiefs are dumb enough they won't cut him anyway. He'll get the surgery and still be an overpaid, average safety that'll likely find yet another way to not be on the field.

I quite like your draft but would like to see something like this in the first 3 picks:

CB Oruwariye, DE/Edge Jaylon Edwards, S Adderly.

I think all 3 would be day 1 starters and impact players.

Some combination of #1's and #2's should be able to get that done.

Really like all three of those guy's if not Oruwariye then Mullen

Did you mean Jaylon Ferguson? If so, I think if you go back a bit then KCCrow was drafting him in the 2nd but he got some hype to go late 1st early 2nd so he hasn't been featured in these drafts much recently.

LMAO you're trying to armchair diagnose something where you have no idea what the root cause actually is but think you've got the pulse from webmd

I'd explain how we know all of this and can diagnose from our armchairs, but it's complicated.

It would be first logical thought you've had.

You..

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/GleamingSm...restricted.gif

I ask again - what would you like to bet on this?

You can say it's not football related all you want but it doesn't have to be 100% BECAUSE of football. It is akin to the eggshell plaintiff rules - sure, Berry may have been genetically predisposed to this condition but if he'd have not had this thing surface had he chosen to be a schoolteacher, it's going to be called football related. It just will. You keep saying 'CAUSED' by football and that ain't how it works. Exacerbated or tangentially related to playing football is going to be enough. Your position that making it worse is irrelevant is just laughably ridiculous.

That's why these CTE cases still get such traction despite no true causal link ever being established. Oh sure, there's a ton of circumstantial linkage and we know that some people are simply going to be more predisposed to cognitive damage than others. An entire field of literature has come to the conclusion that there is SOMETHING already present in these severe cases that might not have surfaced but/for football but the bottom line is that the seed was there and all football did was make it debilitating. And in the end, all of these cases are coming down to "is there enough smoke to say that but/for football, this wouldn't have happened this way or at least not been this severe...."?

If you honestly think that you'll be able to convince an arbitrator that "Eric Berry, Schoolteacher" would've had this condition pop up to a degree that required surgical intervention....well you're being unreasonably myopic. Berry and his people will have an army of experts at ANY hearing saying "Yes, of course wearing football cleats and heavily taping ankles while making hard cuts can and will contribute to exacerbating this physical condition to the point that surgery is now necessary...." The Chiefs may or may not bring in experts of their own to argue to the contrary but if I'm a betting man, I'm betting that they just don't bother trying.

Because they will get their asses kicked badly on this one. You are applying a standard to 'football related' that is ENTIRELY too strict and in the process completely wasting your time.

Eric Berry won't be cut and the reason he won't be is that the Chiefs know that they're not going to get any traction at all on the argument that this injury isn't football related. Spend as much time talking yourself into the opposite view as you'd like, but it's not going to happen. Archive to your hearts content and we'll circle back on the 3rd day of the league year...

And it's really a pointless argument from the start. The Chiefs weren't and won't be considering the move.

It's iffy that the Ravens are going to re-sign CJ Mosley. Harbaugh had a quote the other day that made it sound like he could be a casualty.

Sporttrac has his estimated contract at ~5 years/51 million.

What if instead of signing Darby to a big deal, we signed Mosley, lets go 5/55 to err on the high side.

Took a CB in the first, whether that's Deandre Baker,Amani Oruwariye, or Byron Murphy. I honestly like all three.

I really like our front seven in that set up and love the athleticism of Do'D and Mosley.

We're stuck with Hitchens for 2 more years. I know it's a sunk cost but I have a hard time talking myself into plowing that much cap into the LB corps.

He had a really good season, and will likely be a 1st rounder at this point which is why I quit mocking him there. He might be there close to where KC picks because of this draft being loaded.

You have Bosa, Ferrell, and Sweat ahead of him as weakside rushers and probably Gary and Zach Allen will be taken ahead of him as strong side rushers. You have Josh Allen and Polite definitely being 3-4 guys. So, I see him being down the list a bit. If the Chiefs get rid of Ford and they do go to a 4-3 (likely now), then Ferguson has to be on the table in round 1. No way he's sliding to the end of 2 at this point.

Get off the betting bullshit, for starters.

There's nothing "strict" about anything here, it's the wording of the contract. There's nothing about a naturally occurring bone protrusion that any reasonable person other than a ****ing imbecile would take to mean "caused by football." To think an arbitrator would be so ****ing stupid to not see the disconnect here is ludicrous at best. This deformity is not the same as a cause/effect relationship such as Ryan Shazier becoming paralyzed due to a hit on the field.

And yes, this condition is common enough and is made worse by "school teachers," wearing improper shoes just as much as Berry is. It isn't the Kansas City Chiefs fault that his body grew abnormally. It isn't football's fault. You're grasping at straws and, honestly, insulting any reasonable person's intelligence to think the contrary. The only thing you're 100% correct on is that his continued use of football cleats will exacerbate a naturally occurring condition, which could be remedied to a large extent by the player deciding to have surgery. This is the same as if someone has a naturally occurring heart condition could make his condition much riskier by running 100 yards down the football field. An arbitrator would not side with the player on termination of a contract for the heart condition either. If you want 100% legitmate proof that the NFL will side with the team on this, look no further than a recent case where the Saints were awarded the cap space and right to cut Nick Fairly for a found heart condition.

Done with this discussion.

Yup. I want dis dude.
Could be that we get a high #2 for Ford...and if we could get out of there with Ferguson and Oruwariye in our first two picks I'd be excited.

The Chiefs would absolutely cut him if they could. They won't because they know better. Ultimately you even know this because you're already backpedaling with your "The chiefs are dumb enough they won't cut him..." nonsense.

They know how dire their cap situation is and they know that Berry is not going to play to the level of his cap hit next season. If they could cull $9 million from their cap as easily as you say they can, they would.

They won't because because 'related' does not mean 'unequivocally caused by'. They know they'll get curb-stomped in an arb hearing.

He's not going anywhere and you can get as huffy as you'd like when someone points that out. It sucks, but it's the reality of the thing. Stomp and pout all you want, but you're wasting your time every single time you put together a mock that includes cutting Eric Berry and freeing up loads of cap space.

You know, I went back and re-read some of the commentary from when we signed Hitchens. Then I went and watched some of the highlights of his play with the Cowboys.

He might be a surprise next season if we move back to a 4-3. It's tough to believe that the player he was with the Cowboys just disappeared overnight when we signed him.

I think I'm back in the camp of taking a corner early, letting Dee walk, and figuring out the LEO either through free agency or the draft.

If he has surgery soon (and all indications right now is that he will), the whole discussion is moot. His salary is fully-guaranteed and he's not going anywhere.

:shake:

Hey crow,

What do you think of Zack Moss out of Utah at running back?

He's a day three guy who I think would compliment Williams well. He won't make you miss in space, but he has good vision and balance...Utah would also split him out in the slot at times...so he's a versatile chip.

I like his one-cut and go style and his speed to gain the edge. Like him as a pass protector. I don't like his ball security when he gets to the NFL, he carries the ball like a loaf of bread. Don't like his power, or should I say lack thereof. I'm not sure he gets drafted, but he's worth a shot as an UDFA.

Agreed

Crow thinks your an idiot because if he has surgery it will be to repair a malady that is not football related and therefore would not prevent him from being cut.

Technically, if it is not football related, he would be right and Berry could be cut before his salary guarantees. But technically if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle...

Wait...shit...does that axiom work anymore? I mean what if she has balls but self-identifies as my aunt? Or a unicorn? And if she self-identifies as my aunt AND a unicorn does she now have a horn in lieu of said balls? I'm really confused...

In either event, that's the crux of the entire conversation. Crow believes the Chiefs can say that since this is something of a naturally occurring deformity, the Chiefs can have it declared non-injury related and cut him even if he has surgery to repair it. He is arguing this vociferously with me even though I was almost certainly the first person to suggest putting him on the NFI list in the damn original thread about it. The problem is, it's just pie in the sky dreaming. It will absolutely never fly. I wish to hell it were true and I would absolutely love being out from under Berry.

But if that were a possibility, the Chiefs would've probably NFI'd his ass as soon as the diagnosis came out and then moved on. I reiterate - they know better.

Yeah, it came up in another thread yesterday in the Lounge. Here was my response:

To me, that's what it comes down to. It doesn't really matter if they CAN cut him, I honestly don't think they WILL.

ROFLROFLROFLROFLROFL

Nah, what I think is that assuming an arbitrator will go against contract law is silly. NFL contracts clearly state termination rights of the club. The only "axiom" being used here is assuming that an arbitrator will consider a non-football health concern to be a football injury and that this will be the reason the contract will be guaranteed for injury. Let's just remember that axioms aren't, for all intents and purposes, assumptions made by a single party or a relative few. ;)

It. Isn't. His. Contract. That. Governs.

C'mon man, as of right this very second his contract means nothing; his 2019 salary isn't (mostly) guaranteed until the league year starts. Stop referring to the terms of his contract, they don't matter because if that's all that did, this would be easy. The contract itself, right now, would leave him open to being cut but/for the additional protections of the CBA.

Those protections are mostly the injury related grievance provisions of the CBA. I'll point you to Article 44, Section 3 allowing for a grievance when a player's contract is terminated. Most notably 44(A)(4) and (6) speaking to allowable defenses from the club:

https://nflpaweb.blob.core.windows.n...u%201-5-15.pdf

and

These are contained within the enumerated defenses specifically allowed by the teams; 6 speaks directly to this exact situation. The team must establish that either the injury didn't exist prior to a physical exam (we know that's not the case) or that no further aggravation of it drove his performance to a level below where it was at the time of the physical exam.

Berry's team has an easy response here - he WAS able to pass a physical. And he was seemingly healthy before camp started. And then camp started and through football related activities the condition was aggravated to a point where he was no longer to play at the same level. With rest, he was able to get back out and play but by playing it continued to aggravate the condition and again push him back below that performance level.

Aggravation of a pre-exisiting injury is absolutely sufficient per the terms of the CBA. If the team cannot establish that there was no aggravation, then they'll end losing an Article 44 grievance. Moreover, the express language of subsection 4 says it must arise SOLELY from a non-football related activity, again - the operative term is 'solely' and puts the onus back on the team to establish that this would still be an issue even had he never practiced a single snap.

There's no way they'll clear that hurdle, just none at all. Yes, they can try the argument and yes on its face it seems to make sense. But when you look into the mechanics of it, they can make that argument and they will lose.

This has nothing to do with a contract guaranteed for injury. It has nothing to do with anything contained within Eric Berry's contract specifically apart from the eventual (virtually) full guarantee on the 3rd day of the league year. What it concerns is whether or not they can cut him PRIOR to that 3rd day pursuant to the terms of the CBA. Article 44 says that if they try, they'll end up paying him anyway.

It's even more interesting when you get down into the presumption of fitness in Section 12 - if he passed a physical prior to camp, he's presumed fit so long as he disclosed any KNOWN conditions. That's just another hurdle they'll have to clear and while yes, you can generally overcome a presumption, it's worth noting that this is specifically not called a rebuttable presumption nor does the CBA provide a manner in which to overcome the presumption. Generally speaking in a provision that provides actual presumptions (contract or statute) there are also methods spelled out to overcome them. There's at least a solid chance that this is simply considered an irrebuttable presumption precisely to address situations like this one.

By my reading of it, they just cannot win this one. There's a presumption of health because the Chiefs passed him on his physical in camp. Even if that presumption is considered rebuttable (it may well not be), he was able to take the field with that condition for years and was deemed fit to practice at the start of camp. He took the field as well and will certainly testify that he felt capable of playing at his usual standard. By engaging in football activities he aggravated his condition to a point below his usual standard. With rest he recovered and when he started playing again, it got worse again, indicating that it was football related activities that led directly to the aggravation.

They will not win here. Your argument is the argument I was trying to formulate months ago when the Haglund's diagnosis first came out - it didn't take a lot of digging to realize that it wouldn't work. And the bottom line is that the Chiefs know this as well because if they didn't, they'd have NFI'd him already.

They were ****ed the moment he passed his physical and took the field in St. Joe. The only thing that could salvage it for them is if Berry knew about the deformity and actively withheld the information. Even then, an arbitrator could easily rule that the Chiefs waived this entire argument given that they've subjected him to numerous physicals over the year and themselves either knew or should have known about the deformity. If they knew or should have know about the condition already, they can't very well use it to void any protections of the CBA.

There are so very few cracks for them to sneak in a W here that I simply do not see how you can be so categorically certain that you're right. Maybe they've hunted something up in that 300 pg agreement that I haven't - it's possible. I didn't read the whole thing; simply the portions I considered relevant. But I'm betting it's more digging than you've done especially since you STILL don't have the controlling document figured out (hint: it's not his player contract).

Based on absolutely anything I've read (and a COMPLETE lack of information from any source anywhere regarding a possible Non-Football Injury tag for Berry), I simply cannot see how you can conclude that there is a way to cut Berry and recover his cap figure.

Where we disagree, DJ is specifically about these things.

Berry did not have to 100% pass a physical at training camp, and should the deformity have been known and the extent of it noted, then the club has every right to terminate his contract unless the player can prove, undoubtedly, that the aggravation left him to a lesser state than at the time of that notation. Berry, throughout the duration of camp, was listed on injury reports for this deformity so it was undoubtedly noted by the club physicians. That's my stance on this. Do also pay attention to Section 1 of that article and you'll see why I've been screaming about the contract portion. I disagree that Berry can win a grievance here. I will say that I do have my doubts, and I put them somewhere around 90%, that the club will cut Berry and it isn't on the premise of the injury. If I were the Chiefs, I'd definitely cut him and see if he tries to file a grievance.

Thanks for the good discussion here guys. It’s been really good reading from my standpoint. Quality posts on both sides.

I still think you have standard of proof issues that you're not quite calculating correctly.

You say the player has to prove, undoubtedly, that the aggravation caused the decline. I think you have it reversed based on how the CBA is written. I think it's on the club to prove that the aggravation did not. The burden falls to the team and that's why it's an allowed defense. All the player has to do is establish that he was in recovery at the time he was cut - the ball is then kicked back to the team's court and they have to establish that the recover was as a result of a non-football injury and that the aggravation is distinct from same.

By putting that burden on the Chiefs, you've changed bar significantly. It suddenly becomes a WWI kind of situation where the side trying to advance has a far more difficult row to hoe. With the Chiefs being the ones trying to take the trench, it's a hell of a lot easier for Berry with his barb wire and pillboxes to fend them off.

And my memory of the Berry/Camp situation is different than yours - yes, once camp started, he was on injury reports (because he immediately hit them), but I do not believe there was any indication of a potential heel problem prior to football activities beginning. Moreover, I don't think you're correct from a purely technical persepctive regarding his physical - From what I can find, the Chiefs cannot subject a player to practice, etc... without passing him on his physical. There isn't a "100% pass" or "60% pass" or whatever - either they passed him or they didn't. He was going to start camp so they HAD to have passed him. And if they did, the language of those sections trigger and appear clear on their face.

And really, none of that speaks to the waiver issue - if the Chiefs signed him to this deal or cleared him to play at any point, they could very well be barred from now raising it as a defense if the arbitrator rules that they were or should have been aware of it. At that point its an arms length transaction and if you allow teams to start jumping on those, you've really weakened those sections of the CBA completely.

As I read more of that stuff it's clear that those provisions aren't really designed for situations like Berry's present situation. They're designed for situations like his previous one - where his cancer simply prevented him from being able to play even a single snap. Or situations where a guy is playing pickup hoops and ruptures his ACL. They aren't designed for situations like this one where a condition doesn't make playing initially impossible, but rather makes the act of playing an activity that inherently degrades the guys ability. That's how this differs from the heart condition situation - the guy simply couldn't take the field and no amount of rest, no matter how long it was, was going to get him cleared to play.

Berry, OTOH, can sit and rehab and get himself into playable shape. Then by playing, the condition is aggravated to the point he can no longer play at that level. That just falls directly into that section 6 heading to me. And with the burden on the Chiefs to show that it doesn't AND that they shouldn't be deemed to have waived the defense....man, we're just on opposite ends of the spectrum. I'd give them a 1 in 6 shot at it, maybe less. 10-15% would be the best shot I'd be comfortable giving them.

I think we can agree DJ, that this situation comes down to the injury notation by team physicians at the time of the physical and throughout the season as to whether there was any substant change. If there was not, meaning his practice and/or playing aggravated the injury to a degree he could not practice or play at a level at or above that noted at the time of the physical, then Berry would have a case.

As this deformity is something that develops over time, the team and Berry very much could not have known that he'd ever have the current issue based on physicals in prior seasons so that can and likely will be moot.

As for the physical itself, all players are subject to a minimum physical per Appendix K (starts on page 291). You will see that this does not include the necessity to do any imaging on any part of the body other than the chest unless an area was previously injured. I believe this was the side Berry did not previously injure but I may be wrong there.

Do note Section 3, part 1 of the Injury Grievance as well, which may easily be in play here:

I thought Berry DID participate in team drills in the first day and that was what got him shut down.

It brings me back to my response to Meck in the other thread - there's so much ground to cover here that the fact that the national writers are just not mentioning it doesn't tell me that they have a clear answer - it tells me that they simply haven't considered it.

We've been hashing this out over a couple weeks and don't have a clear answer. I don't think the writers would either. And the truth is the only people that do are the team and Berry because that medical information is protected.

You may be onto something with him participating early in camp and being shut down, it does seem to ring a bell. What I'm thinking is that it is very possible that he passed the physical, nothing was found, and then he participated and there was discomfort and they then dug deeper and found this going on. Being that, it's not entirely clear in the limited time I've scanned the CBA (and maybe I will look it over once more tonight) what would happen. One thing I do believe is true is that once the injury was found, it appeared the Chiefs did not have Berry practice or play. Then I think the question becomes if Berry decided to anyhow and that will fall under an exemption from grievance. I may be wrong.

I think the more I think about our offense and the upcoming draft the more I lean towards wanting to use the couple picks we take on offensive guys to take players who have some physicality and dog in them.

Our offense is a lot of positive superlatives, but one word I wouldn't use right now is physical. Tyreek and Sammy aren't going to truck anyone, Williams really isn't the kind of guy to square you up and run through you.

I'd love to at least have one skill player on that side of the ball whose got some dog in him.

With that said, I like the Holyfield pick. I wish he was used as more of a pass catcher in Georgia's offense, because that's a skill set we need our backs to have.