Offseason Plan 3.0 - Updated Playoff Edition
 

Merry Christmas all of you sorry saps. Probably last one of the season, until I see some end of season boards come out as well as more set-in-stone draft positions. Have fun with it, and as always I enjoy your comments and criticism.

Offseason Plan (Update: 01/10/2016)

Chiefs EFRAs & RFAs
Demetrius Harris - TE - 1 year, $600,000. Cap hit of $600,000. *** Re-signed to long-term deal, details not yet revealed ***
Charcandrick West - RB - 1 year, $600,000. Cap hit of $600,000.
Daniel Sorensen - SS - 1 year, $600,000. Cap hit of $600,000.
Nicholas Williams - 34DT - 1 year, $600,000. Cap hit of $600,000.
David King - 34DT - 1 year, $600,000. Cap hit of $600,000.

Allowed to walk: Frankie Hammond, Jr. (WR)

Chiefs UFAs
Eric Berry - SS (KC) - 5 year, $48 million with $15 million signing bonus and $22 million in total guarantees. Cap hits of $7.5, 9.0, 9.0, 11.0, and 11.5 million. Average annual cap hit of $9.6 million.
Jaye Howard - DE (KC) - 4 year, $22 million with $9 million signing bonus. Cap hits of $4.2, 4.8, 6.0, and 7.0 million. Average annual cap hit of $5.5 million.
Jeff Allen - OG (KC) - 4 year, $17 million with $4 million signing bonus and first year salary guaranteed. Cap hits of $2.5, 4.5, 4.7, and 5.3 million. Average annual cap hit of $4.25 million.
Derrick Johnson - ILB (KC) - 2 year, 8.25 million with 2 million signing bonus. Cap hits of 3.75 and 4.5 million. Average annual cap hit of 4.125 million.
Husain Abdullah - FS (KC) - 2 year, 3.25 million with 750,000 signing bonus. Cap hits of 1.50 and 1.75 million. Average annual cap hit of 1.625 million
Frank Zombo - OLB (KC) - 1 year, 840,000 with 50,000 signing bonus. Cap hit of 665,000.
Dezman Moses - OLB (KC) - 1 year, 675,000. Cap hit of 675,000.

Allowed to walk: Sean Smith (CB), Chase Daniel (QB), Mike DeVito (DL), Tyvon Branch (SS), Donald Stephenson (OT), Jamell Fleming (CB)
Assumed retirement: Tamba Hali (OLB)

Chiefs PS
The Chiefs sign all practice squad players to minimum futures contracts: Tyrell Adams (LB), Da'Ron Brown (WR), Reid Fragel (OT), Laurence Gibson (OT), Michael Liedtke (OG), Daniel Munyer (OC), Darrin Reaves (RB), Jimmy Staten (DT), Ross Travis (TE), Fred Williams (WR)

League UFAs
Sean Weatherspoon - ILB (ARI) - 4 year, 16 million with 4 million signing bonus and 5.75 million in total guarantees. Cap hits of 2.75 , 3.5, 4.25, and 5.5 million.

A former playmaker for the Atlanta Falcons, Weatherspoon (6'1" 244) ruptured his Achilles in 2014 and spent 10 games on IR. Last offseason, the 27-year old Weatherspoon signed a 1-year deal with the Cardinals, expecting to prove himself for a big contract but an offseason in the tub nursing a hamstring injury kept him off the field and in Bruce Arians' dog house. He might look for another 1-year deal elsewhere, but he won't be returning to Arizona. Just as well, Weatherspoon might look for a long-term deal with a team that gives him some security to play out the rest of his career. Teams won't be lining up the Brinks trucks to attain his services, so he might be had for a mid-level contract. At 4 million per, this would put Weatherspoon around 23rd in the NFL for ILB contracts but the financial risk could be well worth the reward for the former University of Missouri product who is capable of 100+ tackle seasons and is reliable against both the run and pass. Weatherspoon could give the Chiefs and adequate replacement for Derrick Johnson should he retire, or would provide them with a dynamic 1-2 punch on the inside if he returns.

Notes

• Cap hit for Tyler Bray in 2016 is 620,000.
• Estimated cap hit for Jah Reid is 1.76 million (860,000 salary was reported, guessing that is guaranteed along with guessing a 3 million signing bonus, 150,000 annual workout bonus, and 1 million roster bonus in 2018).
• The recent signing of Mike Daniels to a 4 year, 41 million extension in Green Bay is certainly cause for concern with Jaye Howard's value. I have the Chiefs' retaining him at 4 years and 33 million, but wouldn't be at all surprised if he were to get more. This becomes a major concern with Dontari Poe set to make a truckload next offseason, someone I'm expecting to make more than 10 million per.

Cap Estimates
Spending prior to draft class at $143.1 million. Draft class reserve at $7 million. Total cap hits $150.1 million. Expected cap $152 million.

Draft
1. CB Eli Apple - Ohio State 6'0" 200, rSo.

I'm expecting that KC won't be able to retain all of there free agents and the biggest hit will probably be losing Sean Smith at corner. The Chiefs have some great youngsters in Marcus Peters and Phillip Gaines, providing Gaines comes back 100% from injury. They need more there though, and Apple is the type of physical, man cover corner that Sutton loves. Apple is athletic with quick, loose hips that allow him to turn and run with receivers. Apple has a strong initial jam off the line of scrimmage in press. A solid run support player who's only major knock is his wrap up on tackles.

2. OG Joshua Garnett - Stanford 6'4" 321, Sr.

The Chiefs' guard position really has been in constant flux for quite some time. After spending an offseason trying to upgrade with the signing of Paul Fanaika and the trade for Ben Grubbs, one would have thought it would improve. The problem is, neither of those signings, tying up millions on the roster, have seen the field much nor produced well when on it. Grubbs may just be having problems with his back this season, and one could hope he returns to his former self next season. Fanaika was a headscratcher from the beginning and hasn't seen the field, sitting on IR this season. It's hard to see the Chiefs continue on with such uncertainty at the position, and that includes bringing back oft-injured Jeff Allen. Joshua Garnett, in my opinion, is the best guard in college football by a wide margin. This is a kid that is big, he moves very well, and he brings some nasty with him every snap. I like a guard that can get out and move in space and hit second level blocks, and Garnett is one of the best I've seen in years at doing just that. He's also big enough to hold his ground and not get pushed back into the quarterbacks lap every play, plus he can generate some movement in the run game.

3. WR Braxton Miller - Ohio State 6'1" 205, Sr.

The Chiefs receiving corps has went from a no-man show to a one-man show after the acquisition of Jeremy Maclin as their number one last season. Albert Wilson has been sporatic at best. I haven't seen enough from Chris Conley to show me he's going to be something special just yet, but I'll be patiently watching him develop. I've added Rishard Matthews from Miami in past scenarios, but I may be underestimating his value and opt to instead fill the position via the draft. Miller remains a work in progress at receiver with only one year of experience at the position. However, Miller is an electrifying playmaker whenever he gets his hands on the ball and he possesses great size for the position. After a season or two in the NFL working on his craft, Miller could be the explosive player that KC needs.

4. OT Joe Haeg - North Dakota State 6'5" 300, Sr.

The right tackle position has been a thorn in the Chiefs' side for a few years now; let's call it a revolving door of medicority or worse. It really is time for KC to give themselves a pair of bookend tackles that can consistently keep Alex Smith standing upright. The problem is, the Chiefs made a rather significant committment to Jah Reid with a 3 year contract extension. I believe this signifies a desire to develop a right tackle from a mid round pick rather than spending top tier draft resources on the position. Haeg reminds alot of Eric Fisher, a long and athletic tackle that will need time to develop lower body strength and better technique. Haeg shows the lateral agility to be excellent in pass protection against speed out of the gate.

5. DT Matt Ioannidis - Temple 6'3" 292, Sr.

The Chiefs will have some free agent issues to address at 3-4 defensive end as well. Mike DeVito and Jaye Howard are both free agents, so I don't expect the Chiefs to bring both back. Howard has to be priority one at the position and is probably the second most important free agent after Eric Berry. That being said, KC will have to continue to build depth via the draft. The Temple defense was undoubtedly led by star linebacker Tyler Matakevich, but in front of him was a very good player in his own right; Matt Ioannidis. Ioannidis is a very solid player in all phases and has lined up both at defensive end and inside. Ioannnidis is a big-time high-motor player that routinely pushes the pocket and forces plays in the backfield. I see him as a guy that can develop into a solid outside anchor in the Chiefs' 3-4.

5. FS Deon Bush - Miami 6'1" 205, Sr.

The Chiefs have some important free agent decisions to make with Eric Berry, Tyvon Branch, and Husain Abdullah all set to hit the market. I expect KC to retain two of the three, with Eric Berry being priority one. Bush is a passionate player that brings it every play, something the KC defense could use more of (and one reason I targeted King in round 1). Bush is solid in coverage with good range and brings the lumber on crossing patterns in his zone. Bush is a sound player against the run, just needing a little coaching up on making sure he wraps the ballcarrier even though he'll leave little doubt about hitting the runner.

6. DE Ronald Blair III - Appalachian State 6'3" 272, Sr.

The Chiefs' lose a great player in Tamba Hali if he chooses to hang up the cleats after this season, something I fully expect. If he doesn't, the Chiefs will undoubtedly find a way to bring him back. Until that situation is clarified, I'm expecting the Chiefs to look for depth behind Dee Ford and Justin Houston, especially given that both Dezman Moses and Frank Zombo are free agents. Blair is a guy I really like and he isn't very high on the radar yet. This is a guy that brings it every down, plays the run well, bends the edge, and can bear down on a QB. Blair is highly underrated, probably because of level of competition but he was a man amongst boys against Clemson this year. I'm sold.

7. WR Hunter Sharp - Utah State 5'11" 200, Sr.

The Chiefs simply must continue in their attempt to add skills to their WR group as well as to their special teams unit. The Chiefs struggled mightily in the return game and Sharp has some abilities there. A cousin to current Chiefs standout linebacker Derrick Johnson, Sharp would have a veteran connection on the team to help him learn to be a pro. Sharp has good speed and shows excellent ability tracking the deep ball. Excellent awareness on all passes and very reliable hands. Good open-field running ability. Great acceleration on jet sweeps.

Roster
QB Alex Smith
QB Tyler Bray
QB Aaron Murray

RB Jamaal Charles
RB Charcandrick West (ERFA)
RB Spencer Ware
RB De'Anthony Thomas
RB Knile Davis
RB Darrin Reaves (PS-FUTURE)

FB Anthony Sherman

TE Travis Kelce
TE James O'Shaughnessy
TE Brian Parker
TE Demetrius Harris (ERFA)
TE Ross Travis (PS-FUTURE)

WR Jeremy Maclin
WR Albert Wilson
WR Chris Conley
WR Braxton Miller (DRAFT RD 3)
WR Hunter Sharp (DRAFT RD 7)
WR Da'Ron Brown (PS-FUTURE)
WR Fred Williams (PS-FUTURE)

OT Eric Fisher
OT Jah Reid
OT Joe Haeg (DRAFT RD 4)
OT Curtis Feigt
OT Reid Fragel (PS-FUTURE)
OT Laurence Gibson (PS-FUTURE)

OG Ben Grubbs
OG Jeff Allen (UFA)
OG Joshua Garnett (DRAFT RD 2)
OG Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff
OG Paul Fanaika
OG Jerrod Pughsley
OG Michael Liedtke (PS-FUTURE)

OC Mitch Morse
OC Zach Fulton
OC Daniel Munyer (PS-FUTURE)

DL Allen Bailey
DL Jaye Howard (UFA)
DL Nicholas Williams (ERFA)
DL Rakeem Nunez-Roches
DL David King (ERFA)
DL Matt Ioannidis (DRAFT RD 5)
DL Jimmy Staten (PS-FUTURE)
DL Dontari Poe

OLB Justin Houston
OLB Dee Ford
OLB Frank Zombo (UFA)
OLB Dezman Moses (UFA)
OLB Ronald Blair III (DRAFT RD 6)

ILB Derrick Johnson (UFA)
ILB Sean Weatherspoon (UFA-ARI)
ILB Josh Mauga
ILB Justin March
ILB Ramik Wilson
ILB DJ Alexander
ILB Tyrell Adams (PS-FUTURE)

CB Marcus Peters
CB Eli Apple (DRAFT RD 1)
CB Phillip Gaines
CB Steven Nelson
CB Marcus Cooper

SS Eric Berry (UFA)
SS Daniel Sorensen (ERFA)
FS Ron Parker
FS Husain Abdullah (UFA)
FS Deon Bush (DRAFT RD 5)

K Cairo Santos
P Dustin Colquitt
LS James Winchester

** A bunch of UDFAs to fill out the remaining camp slots.

I wouldn't pay Howard that money. Not with Nick Willams and Nunez-Roches on the roster. And DeVito would be cheaper for another year as they are brought along than Howard getting that type of money.

And you still have Fanaika on the payroll.

I'm not very excited about this off season plan, v. 3.0.

Interesting thoughts. Perhaps not a bad idea with Howard. Some have argued to go after Wilkerson and let Howard walk, but Wilkerson will probably command 15 million per as a starting point. That's a price point you could nearly get Poe and Howard for in my mind. One nice thing about Howard is how effective he is at NT when Poe is out. Also, by signing Howard you can hedge your bets with Poe when his contract is due after 2016.

As for Fanaika, he's not a great cut. Yes, you can free up minimal space (966k) at a rather pricey dead cap hit (1.2m), but you aren't going to sign any vets for much less than just keeping Fanaika. I'm leaving the option open for him to be a camp cut at this point more than I am a "must cut" in the offseason. I will say that I agree he was a poor signing last season and he's not someone I'd love to see stay on the roster.

I think this is a solid offseason with ONE major exception, and that's Sean Witherspoon. If you're going to drop midlevel coin on a position, drop it on a receiver or a lineman. With Mauga, Wilson, and Justin March at the position, we have enough depth for the position to NOT be a dumpster fire if DJ goes down, like it was in 2014.

Everything else I think is pretty solid. I disagree with Sac, I think you find a way to keep Howard on the roster. Poe is going to be expensive but you can always toy around with contracts to make shit happen.

It's a pretty tough spot. Plow a bunch of money into the DL with Howard and then if you can sign Poe to inevitably huge dollars you have to spend to get Poe, you have a mountain of money in the DL. Maybe it works if they aren't mediocre and busts like Dorsey and Jackson, but it's still awful scary tying up such a large portion of cap in one position group (that's not QB). Esspecially if Poe goes down.

They've got guys like Williams and Nunez-Roches on the cheap right now. Both have looked good in spot play. DeVito would be a relatively cheap resign and he's been effective this season coming off the achilles injury. I think he's looked pretty good for the most part.

If they wanted another high impact player for the position, I'd look at it early in the draft with someone like Alabama's Jarran Reed or Penn State's Austin Johnson (who I think would be a pretty good fit for this system), but I think it would be unwise to spend a lot of money on Jaye Howard at this point. (Who also has a propensity to commit a lot of unnecessary and untimely penalties.)

Even without Howard, who will probably get a pretty decent contract offer on the FA market, I think that this team is in a relatively good position at the defensive tackle/end position.

Howard is the best DL on the team and has transformed this defense to elite status.
I'd overpay to keep him if it meant letting Poe walk.

I generally stay away from commenting in these draft threads until the season is over at the very least, but I just have to comment here.

Jaye Howard is a very good piece in this defense, and is improving, but Hali's resurgence, and the overall defensive resurgence coincided with the return of Sean Smith the lineup, and Dontari Poe's return to health.

Howard a a very good player.

Poe is a difference maker.

When Poe is healthy like he's now then he takes that distinction.

When Poe is healthy like he's now he takes that distinction of being the best DL.

How in the **** do you double post like that and the plan is woof

Come on man, this is the Draft Planet, not the Lounge.

We all get along in here.

Braxton miller is exciting, I like that pick.

He'd make Dat redundant

what the **** is "woof?"

Agreed.

With that said, do you advocate retaining Sean Smith and drafting for DE instead? It is a very good year for D-lineman, but also DBs.

I think that Poe is important for this defense, but I would not be in favor of bringing him back if he wants a huge salary like I expect him to. He's a rare specimen who will want to be paid somewhere in Gerald McCoy's neighborhood IMO.
I know people are saying Poe is better than Howard, but I don't think that's true. Poe is the better pass rusher than Howard, but Howard is a better run stuffer.
I think that Howard is a better pass rusher than Poe is a run stuffer. Obviously we would all love to keep both, but we've already got significant money tied up in Bailey and soon to be Howard (we've already made it a priority to get this done).
Keep in mind that we've shown a penchant for finding good DL (Howard/Williams) and we've also shown a huge amount of development in all of our DL, so could we move forward without spending a ton on a player with back issues?

As for CB, I do want Sean Smith back, but it's probably not gonna happen. This draft class is filled with great talent at CB and I'd like to take one early on pure principle, however I think we'll be forced to take one as a need, as I don't see any real talent in FA that would come at a significantly cheaper price than what Sean Smith will cost.

I think this draft will be all about depth. I think we need depth at these 3 positions more than anything else:

-Speed receiver to replace Avant/backup returner. (Braxton Miller would be great). I want to build this WR core up like the Steelers and Cardinals.
-CB, even if we keep Sean Smith.
-OLB. I don't care if Tamba comes back. We need insurance in case Ford struggles in the future, or another injury occurs in the future.

Is it just me or is Howard good for 1-2 personal fouls a game?

Seems like it every freaking game.

Like I said, he's going to have to show more to justify the amount of money people around here think he's worth or are willing to pay him.

The rate I'd consider comfortable would be around 4.5 million per. He's a very good run stuffer and can be a very solid, if not top notch, nose tackle. He's not elite at rushing the passer and he still makes plenty of mental mistakes.

The deciding factor will ultimately be "the market," and where his agent and teams around the league see him fitting relative to it. Some fairly large contracts have been signed the past few years by defensive lineman.

I don't like the 8+ per number I put out in this offseason mock and I really don't even like paying him Bailey money. The more I think about his production and how I'd personally value him, the more I think the Chiefs have to get a deal done under 5.5 million per, and ideally under 5 million per, or they should let him walk.

Where Hali? You don't have on the roster or walk away.

He has void years in his contract to spread the bonus out and he is a free agent after 2015, but I didn't put him on the "let walk" list for two reasons: 1. I expect him to retire, and 2. If he doesn't retire I'd assume he'll sign a one-year, cap-friendly deal with the Chiefs.

Will update to reflect Desmond King's decision to return to Iowa for his senior season.

Updates made.

Notable changes:

• Reduced contract for Jaye Howard to 5.5m per average.
• Re-signed Jeff Allen at 4.25m per average
• CB Eli Apple replaces CB Desmond King (returning to Iowa) as Round 1 pick.
• OT Joe Haeg replaces OT Tyler Marz as draft pick.
• WR Hunter Sharp replaces OT Clint Van Horn as draft pick.
• Other picks moved up or down, reflecting changing value

Howard is getting more than an average of $5.5 million.