The Draft Network mock sim
 

http://www.thedraftnetwork.com
It was just released and is really good.

Another mock draft that has TJ Hockenson going in the top 10.

awesome thanks...love these...good time killers. The more the better.

29.Devin Bush Jr., LB Michigan

61.Jaylon Ferguson, EDGE LA Tech

63.Darnell Savage, S Maryland

92.Rock Ya-Sin, CB Temple

157.Austin Bryant, EDGE Clemson

188.Bryce Love, RB Stanford

194.Tre Lamar, LB Clemson

Did they take it back down? I can't find the link to actually run it.

Weird. Whenever I go there it just says "Coming Soon!" and talks about the draft machine. I wonder if I need to set up an account or something.

Man, you go thru and do this you realize how you can end up kind of getting ****ed on draft day.

I have to say doing these mock draft simulators (realistically) and sticking to my board makes me feel pretty confident that won’t happen. I almost always come out with a very realistic draft that I’d be happy with.

That’s weird I don’t have an account and it works for me.

Just depends on your "draft board".

The Chiefs won't be what ours is for sure. aybe that's why they end up taking different guys than we ever thought though.

So my draft broke really weird and a bunch of defensive guys went way higher than I expected. To that end, I ended up with a pretty darn good offensive draft. I wasn't necessarily enthused with taking Montgomery in the 2nd but there wasn't a single decent LB, Edge, CB, or S left on the board when I got there (Mullen was the last one and Savage went 60 overall right before Mullen).

29. T.J. Hockenson, TE Iowa
61. Trayvon Mullen, CB Clemson
63. David Montgomery, RB Iowa State
92. Michael Deiter, OT Wisconsin
157. Brian Peavy, CB Iowa State
188. Khalil Hodge, LB Buffalo
194 Tyre Brady, WR Marshall

It's bizarre; it keeps redirecting me here:

https://thedraftnetwork.com/2018/06/...draft-machine/

That's a mid-summer link, but I can't get it to not redirect me. Technology sucks.

Yea true but at just about every pick there are more than one or two guys that I’d be happy with.

By sticking to my board I meant not worrying too much about position/needs from pick to pick.

For example, the drafts I haven’t been happy with are usually ones where we “get ****ed” defensively and I end up taking two offensive guys with 2 of our first 4 picks. At the end of the day though, they’re still good drafts. I just like the talent in those areas.

This is EXACTLY what happened to me. I ended up not having a bad draft but it's offense-heavy for sure, which is not what I want personally.

This offense with Hock and Monty would be unreal.

Right.

Even if I set the draft up to just ram-rod us at CB, I can still do okay at safety, TE, DL and OL.

There are going to be good players available. We simply cannot be beholden to the idea that any offensive picks are a 'loss'. If that's the way the board goes, so be it.

Take the best players and if need be use FA to fill holes. As has been noted, your year 1 contributions from 2nd and 3rd round picks aren't likely to be massive anyway. You can get those kind of mid-tier talents on reasonable FA deals if needed.

Here's my first try from this morning.'There were still a few guys I thought fell lower than I though they should (Jaylon Ferguson for example), so I intentionally passed them over.

https://texas.forums.rivals.com/prox...73e5b7f95f5556

It really shows how you can't pigeon hole yourself into a certain position and that if you do you better be ready to trade up and get a guy.

This is an example of that.

I don't know that Rapp is much more than a 3rd round prospect and I'd hate to have to take him that early because a run on safeties starts.

I'd be OK with this.

The offense would be ****ing loaded for years to come.

I get the same thing.

I could have taken Rapp in the 2nd but passed for that very reason. He was gone by the 3rd.

They said something on their Twitter account about being aware that not everyone can access it and they're working on bugs.

Eh, not like there's a shortage of mock draft simulators out there...

Definitely, I was hoping one of the safeties we talk about here more often would fall, but they were gone and I didn't want to risk not getting a solid one.

However, I was really happy with the end of the draft. I think Kendall Joseph is a good compliment to DOD at the WILL and push him. Where DoD is more athletic, Kendall Joseph has strong linebacker instincts.

I also really liked Jon Baker in the 7th. He's an interior guy who likes to maul and was strong in the run game at Boston College.

I think it's a solid B- to a B draft.

Man, I don’t know what some of you are seeing when it comes to Rapp.

I’d be ecstatic to get him in the 2nd. There’s a reason some people have him as high as #1. No way he makes it to the 3rd.

Yeah, I can see a defense for him in the 2nd. He's not super high on my list and there's guys I'd take before him, but if you're sitting there with a CB and a ILB in your pocket (or if you've done the right thing and taken Hock), you could definitely justify him with that other 2nd.

Depending on how he does at workouts, he could be a 2nd round pick. He could also drop to like the 4th. He's not anywhere near a first-rounder - who has him that high?

I don’t see any way that happens.

Matt Miller has him #1 and just about everybody has him in their top 5. It’s safe to say he a consensus 2nd round pick.

There's little separating him from Hooker in terms of 'pure prospect value' so if there's an argument for Hooker in the 2nd, there's an argument for Rapp.

I think Rapp is and could be a good player, I just don't know that he really has the athletic ceiling to be that high of a pick.

Now maybe i'm overrating what I'd like to have in the 2nd round or what the actual expectations of said player should be, but i'm gonna have to see how he tests before I took him that high.

Man, if he's the 'top safety prospect' in this class for Miller, I don't see how he can have any safeties going in the 1st round.

He's just not a 1st round guy. He's just not good enough in coverage to justify that. I guess you could try to argue that his upside is Landon Collins but that seems like a maaaaajor reach.

He looks like a pure strong safety who's most comfortable in the box. That's not a 1st round talent these days IMO.

Oh I agree, I’m just pointing out that the majority are much higher on him than CP is.

It looks like the NFL College Advisory Board told him he'd be a 1st round pick.

The same group of people that told Mahomes he'd be a third rounder, FWIW. ;)

And yeah, he's probably in the top 5 safeties. That doesn't make him a 1st rounder.

I never called him one.

Yeah, I think the value for those "big box safeties" are pretty much gone these days. They're essentially small linebackers that can cover.

As we saw last year with DOD, those aren't the most difficult thing to find.

If i'm taking a safety that high, i'm looking for one that can cover and make plays on the ball first.

For sure. Like I said, his workouts will end up determining that. As will Hooker's. Both of them are probably median 3rd round picks with 2nd round upside if they workout well.

I didn't say you did. ;)

Well it certainly seemed like you were implying it lol.

No, I was talking about Matt Miller. Just shooting the messenger, as usual. LOL

Haha got ya. Yea I was pretty shocked when I saw he had him #1. I’d love to hear his explanation because he’s one of the better draft guys IMO.

I will say that if you get a nice solid safety there, i'd take him in the 2nd.

It would be a bit like the Morse pick was a few years ago for me. Kinda "what the ****" when they took him then he ends up being a nice solid player.

Sure, but there's a lot of 'if' there.

It would be like taking a road grader of a guard with that pick.

Sure, 5 years ago you take a solid starting guard who's excellent in the running game but has limitations in space with a 2nd and consider it a win if he's a solid every down player for 4 years.

But now I think the priorities are reversed there and if you're gonna lean on a single strength, it can't be the ground game in the 2nd round.

You just have to be a lot more comfortable with his range than I am there. To my eyes, the guy you're describing that I'd be annoyed about in real time but likely ultimately accepting of would be Hooker.

If he turns into a 'solid player' he'll be a solid coverage safety with some deficiencies in the box. Okay, it's not perfect but with a late 2nd it's good enough.

Yeah, I think we've kinda had our fill of "box" safeties around here, but if you play them right they can really help.

Look at San Diego this year.

The problem is that at some point, you've gotta be able to do the other thing, whichever that is.

Like you, i'd prefer to have a guy that may have to come up and tackle everyonce in a while but is really good in the secondary than the alternative.

Do we have Derwin James?

I could play strong safety alongside Derwin James.

Addae is a nice player, but he gets graded on a curve when the Chargers have a guy like James that can play single high OR get down in the box. He's what Berry was for the 7 or 8 games that Berry played over the course of his career where he was completely healthy.

And Berry covered for a lot of issues on the other side of him.

I just don't think your best safety can be a box safety type. That's what the Giants try to in building their secondary around Collins and I just don't think it works all that well for them. An elite rangy safety can do a lot to make up for the shortcomings of a very good box safety but I don't think there's nearly as strong an inverse relationship there. I don't think that knife cuts both ways.

Hooker is a pretty good tackler, just not as tough at the point of attack as some of the other box guys. On the other hand, he can play just about anywhere in the defensive backfield in pass coverage and that versatility elevates him for me.

I want range in my safeties. That's why I want Adderley. After that, I'm not seeing much that really satisfies that. There's a lot of bigger hitters in this draft but not a lot of quality coverage guys, IMO.

They had Philips back there too, who I wouldn't be opposed to the Chiefs taking a look at.

Yeah, having that "HOF" type safety back there makes a big difference.

Which is why the Chiefs are about to sign Earl Thomas in a few weeks. :clap:

Don't forget that Desmond King was a 1st team AP too.

Look around at the "big hitting safeties" and their records of health. You just can't really be that size, play that way, and stay healthy.

Being what, 6"1 ish, 215-225 and flying around hitting RB's, TE's and WR's, having to take on OL in the screen game. You just can't keep guys healthy that way. It's the same thing I think when people want big bruising RB's that will run over people. They're great for the 7 or 8 games their healthy, but you just can't play that way.

Give me the guys that can avoid getting hit, or the safeties that can tackle but don't make their living being hitters.

The Charger defensive backfield was just really really good. Front 7 too.

That's a really solid defense that should improve, or hopefully not.

I think the offense is about to hit the wall with Rivers looking closer and closer to the ledge.

Sure would not hurt to stumble onto an all-pro defender in the 5th round...

King kinda proves my point a little, though. Do you think he'd have performed at anywhere near that level if he were here?

I hated seeing James fall to the Chargers because I worried that he'd be exactly the kind of force multplier he became. That guy is just so damn good and from his very first NFL game when he made that play on the Mahomes deep ball, you could see it.

But then again, the fact that he HAD to be that good to prevent that play showed us a lot about PM pretty quickly, now didn't it?

Well, to be fair, we did at WR so i'm sure some are pretty pissed at that.

They really need a few of these defenders to really hit. Speaks, DoD etc. need to become pro bowl players at best and just solid defenders at worst.

Gotta find a difference maker soon.

Houston's moving past that if he hasn't already and Ford's likely to price himself beyond it. They have one guy on this roster who is likely to be here and still move the needle in 2020 and that's Chris Jones.

Chris Jones and a bunch of JAGS will still be a pretty 'meh' defense. If you can get Chris Jones, another dangerous player and then a bunch of JAGS, you'll be in nice shape.

I just start to get worried that a lot of this stuff just hasn't synced up as well as you'd like. That we might be in a cycle of chasing/fixing/chasing/fixing. If we spend 2-3 years throwing resources at the defense we're going to find ourselves needing to replace Kelce and most of our OL in 2022 with an uphill climb on our hands.

There's nothing the Chiefs could've really done about it; the prodigal son wasn't available when Houston, DJ, Berry, Poe, etc... where young and decent. It's just bad luck in that regard. I just hope it doesn't keep us trapped in a rocking chair.

And that's why I try to avoid considering need all that much in the draft. In all likelihood, everything is need over the course of 2-3 seasons.

Yeah, that's kind of what I come down to when looking at the draft and using some hindsight.

Frankly, I don't know that you can really know what your "needs" are until the bullets start flying and it changes every year. I think you just keep stacking as many good players in as many spots as you can and see what you come up with.

Plus with injuries and such.

My hope is that with this new coaching staff on defense we can start getting more out of less

Plus, so much changes from year to year, it's tough to think to much about 2022 right now. I know you always need to be forward thinking but **** man, we've got what, like 6 players left on the squad from 2015?

I don't even need that much - I just need the whole to be at as good as the sum of its parts.

I spent this whole damn season saying "no, the D won't stay that bad because there's more talent than one of the 3 worst defenses in football..."

And I still firmly believe that. Houston, Ford, Jones, Nnadi, Bailey, Fuller and Nelson (yes, even Nelson) are all average or better NFL starting caliber players. Hitchens had certainly demonstrated that ability in the past. Sorensen had been part of solid defenses though admittedly he was likely over-exposed. By the playoffs I would've considered Ward in that average range as well. I just cannot convince myself that 2 or 3 players on a defense were so bad that they managed to sabotage the whole damn thing.

I mean sure, they can hold it back and in a matchup league they can be big problems, but still...it can't be just those 3 guys were that bad.

I keep telling myself that this defense didn't have top 10 talent last year, but its talent was enough to be firmly average. And if we can supplement it enough to make up for the almost certain loss of Houston, surely we can keep its overall talent level at/near average as a whole and can get the defense to play to that average sort of level.

And then hope we get lucky and find a way to replace Ford over the long haul that doesn't cost $16-$18 million/season...

This simulator worked for me, on my first go went like a dream

1. Oruwariye
2. Samuel
2. Rapp
3. Tillery

I didn't adjust any settings, just clicked start. Maybe I had it on ridiculous fantasy mode.

I’m pretty firmly on the adderley bandwagon now

Keep a close eye on TE Dawson Knox out of Ole Miss

I think he's gonna time well and really would be talked about a lot higher if the Rebels Offense wasn't a total abortion. If you're looking for a stronger #2, I'd be looking there.

I always have been. He's the one guy that I think could be a top-tier starter, at a position of need, at 29.

They're going to have to trade for a #1 CB and then get a #2/3 in the 2nd round.

id be really happy if we could somehow trade for Rhodes or Peterson and grab Adderly in the first

Probably gonna have to trade some of those picks for a corner tbh.

Gonna have to coach up someone.

29. Irv Smith, TE, Alabama
61. Trayvon Muller, CB, Clemson
63. Jerry Tillery, DE/DT, Notre Dame
92. Joshua Jacobs, RB, Alabama
157. Germaine Pratt, LB, N.C. State
188. Carl Granderson, DE, Wyoming

29. Nasir Adderley, S, Delaware
61. Joejuan Williams, CB, Vanderbilt
63. Jerry Tillery, DE/DT, Notre Dame
92. Amani Hooker, CB/S, Iowa
157. Justice Hill, RB, Ok. State
188. Carl Granderson, DE, Wyoming
194. Khalil Hodge, LB, Buffalo

Think that's my favorite one so far. Adderley starts at FS, Williams gives you an outside CB, Tillery improves the defensive line depth, Hooker is your third safety and slot CB in the dime package, Hill helps at RB depth and Hodge is your SLB.

Nasir Adderley S
Delaware

Devin Bush Jr. LB
Michigan

Trayvon Mullen CB
Clemson

Jerry Tillery IDL
Notre Dame

Travis Fulgham WR
Old Dominion

Malik Carney EDGE
North Carolina


Demarcus Christmas IDL
Florida State

I like that one a lot actually

Holy crap, that's like a dream draft. :drool:

Finally got access to it. Man, this is a good one; awfully tough.

There really is a '**** the Chiefs' scenario when none of the QBs go early and the TEs come off quick as well. Those usually lead to Adderley going right before us and some pretty slim pickings.

That said, I've had Fant fall a time or two and Irv Smith is pretty much always there. I've had Joshua Jacobs fall to our 2nd rounders a couple of times and I'd go ahead and take him there. But in those scenarios the safeties are picked clean with maybe Hooker and Rapp left to choose from with NO corners left (last one had JoeJuan Williams going right ahead of us).

I just went

Fant
Jacobs
Rapp
Jaylon Ferguson (furthest I've seen him fall yet; back of the 3rd)
Beckner (in the 5th? Boy that seems unlikely)
Mecole Hardman, WR - UGA (probably too raw to be much but in the 6th I'll risk it; lots of speed/quickness there)
Cameron Smith, CB - MSU (if people are looking for another Ward, he reminds me of him a bit; needs a TON of work and likely ends up on PS at best)

It's just a lot harder to put together a true home run draft on this thing. Really a lot of robbing Peter to pay Paul. Easily my favorite of the mock draft simulators so far because I haven't had it make one truly easy for me yet.

Okay, I just face-raped this one:

1.29 -- HOOOOOOCK. First time I got a shot at him; I cannot stress enough how good he'd be here.

2.29 -- Julian Love, CB - ND -- I'm warming to him; with Ward's length but lack of quick twitch, I prefer Love's ability to match up with smaller WRs more than some others available here. I passed on Trayvon Mullen and JoeJuan Williams for the same reasons; longer guys with stiffer hips.

2.31 -- Riley Ridley, WR - UGA -- I can't help it, I love the possibilities of this kid on the other side of Hill long term in this offense. I think he'll just blossom and thrive in our system. He can be everything Watkins is at a literal fraction of the cap space. I passed on Tillery here because I simply love what Ridley could be.

3.29 -- Amani Hooker, S - Iowa -- good spot for him.

5.29 -- Terry Beckner Jr, DT - Mizzou -- he's not really going to last this long is he?

6-29 -- TJ Edwards, OLB - Wisc -- I really don't know how he fits here but he's a hard-nosed player who's aggressive. He's probably just a STer in this system but he was a good value play.

7th -- Michael Jordan, C - OSU -- There are a lot of rough edges to knock off here but with Reiter extended, we can bring in a guy with the tools to be better than him and try to coach him up. I'd be elated with getting Jordan in the 7th round.

I'm interested to see Hockerson test, because I've kinda read some people who wonder if he's a really good blocker, average athlete in the pass game.

If that's the case, i'd probably look elsewhere.

Did another mock and I got 3 of your 4 first picks. Swap out Josh Jacobs for Ridley though.

I realize as I do more of these how badly I would infuriate the average Chiefs fan in my perfect world.

About half of my drafts have 3 of my first 4 picks going to offense.

I just cannot convince myself to throw that much capital at the defense yet when we simply don't know how much of the suck was coaching and we went so hard at it last year. Especially when I'm not wholly convinced that Lucas can't start or that Watts isn't actually a ballplayer.

I know I'm supposed to draft a safety and 2 CBs in our first 4 picks, but I just don't like the draft doing that. I end up taking a CB with one of the seconds pretty much every time and it's generally Joejuan Williams because Love doesn't make it there.

But if Adderley's not there in the first? {shrug} I'll make due with offense. Or if I end up having to go with Baker there, best be prepared for 1 more CB and then a shitload of toolsy offensive guys.

I could be completely wrong and would doom the franchise to another disappointing season, but I keep falling into the same general trend here - there are some really talented offensive players that I'm not gonna pass on because I don't like what happened last season.

The problem I keep having with defense is that we need good players but moreso, they need blue chippers. Those are just hard as hell to come by, especially in this draft.

If they could get a corner via trade like Rhodes or Peterson, I really feel that would open up the draft.

If Ed Oliver fell to 26, anyone trade up?

if he fell to 20 id do it, holy shit him and jones and nandi

I don't think drafting another player that will get washed out vs the run is how you stop it.

You’d be nuts not to draft Oliver if he falls into the 20’s. He might become Aaron Donald 2.0

On a complete opposite topic - I am mesmerized watching Dexter Lawrence tape. Clemson primarily played him at 3 tech while Wilkins was more often the 1 tech. Lawrence projects as 1 tech next level, but maybe Clemson was on to something. The man just collapses and crushes any semblance of a pocket and swallows up inside zone runs by himself. He does not have a ton of pass rush upside outside of being a space eater, but man does he wreak havoc in run defend. He moves so quick for such a huge man. If he falls to the late 2nd, I hope the Chiefs nab him. He will keep linebackers squeaky clean.

Are you letting Chris Jones walk in a year?

Quinnen is the Donald 2.0 guy, Oliver is a little over rated I think. Will be solid but not very likely to be a superstar

And Oliver has some strange attitude issues that come and go. I hate being that guy having never met him, but he has spurts where he doesn't seem very coachable.

I just wonder if you won't end up with him and Jones somewhat frustrated given that they're best served playing the same role. You could leave Oliver in the under-tackle roll and move Jones to the strongside DE, but I question the wisdom in that given Jones tendency to just ignore his run responsibilities at times. And I don't think Jones has the high gear to let him be as effective as a Leo.

Just not sure he's a good enough fit on this roster to justify that kind of capital. If we're worried about not getting Jones extended then sure - make the move. But I think the Chiefs are going to push pretty hard to get Jones locked up long-term.

Yeah, damn i'd love to have WIlliams next to Jones. I like Oliver but he's got some issues and especially similar ones to Jones in that I would be afraid we'd get gashed.

If we had the #1 pick would you take Bosa or Williams?

I’m taking Williams