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MahiMike 03-07-2018 07:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 13454342)
I previosly mentioned that.

I'd like to add that the A.I.(Artificial Intelligence) fright train is coming. A.I. is going to take a conservatively estimated 50% of all current jobs in the USA by 2035. With only 5% A.I. jobs replacing those jobs.

You may know that A.I. has already taken and is in the process of taking a lot more jobs in manufacturing. Is already us piloting driver-less cars, working fast food jobs. Performing formally high paying tech jobs.

Even if you dont work in a field thats vulnerable to A.I., your still vulnerable. Who's going to buy your products if the USA has 50% unemployment?

The depression at its worst was 22%. Most think the government is going to have to provide some kind of "floor" wage so that the majority of its people dont starve as we transition to this new technical age.

I was working on an A.I. program in 2010 that was able to make its own decisions. Not follow some algorithm but learns and adapt. The programs goal was to take people out of the equation to make things safer. Just think how more advanced that program is now.....

I thought about starting an A.I. thread but thought it would be too geeky for most. But "most' are going to care when in 5 years your going to see unemployment rise to over 10% as jobs fall to A.I.

Bottom line, unless your retiring in 10 years, there is a big unknown you cant control to deal with in your retirment.

Damn depressing right there.

MahiMike 03-07-2018 08:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 13454342)
I previosly mentioned that.

I'd like to add that the A.I.(Artificial Intelligence) fright train is coming. A.I. is going to take a conservatively estimated 50% of all current jobs in the USA by 2035. With only 5% A.I. jobs replacing those jobs.

You may know that A.I. has already taken and is in the process of taking a lot more jobs in manufacturing. Is already us piloting driver-less cars, working fast food jobs. Performing formally high paying tech jobs.

Even if you dont work in a field thats vulnerable to A.I., your still vulnerable. Who's going to buy your products if the USA has 50% unemployment?

The depression at its worst was 22%. Most think the government is going to have to provide some kind of "floor" wage so that the majority of its people dont starve as we transition to this new technical age.

I was working on an A.I. program in 2010 that was able to make its own decisions. Not follow some algorithm but learns and adapt. The programs goal was to take people out of the equation to make things safer. Just think how more advanced that program is now.....

I thought about starting an A.I. thread but thought it would be too geeky for most. But "most' are going to care when in 5 years your going to see unemployment rise to over 10% as jobs fall to A.I.

Bottom line, unless your retiring in 10 years, there is a big unknown you cant control to deal with in your retirment.

This is the equivalent to pushing the button on the nukes and then trying to live on afterwards. What's the point? And how greedy do corporations have to be?

LoneWolf 03-07-2018 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MahiMike (Post 13455394)
Damn depressing right there.

Depressing, totally incorrect, and full of fear mongering. I work in upper management for one of the top 3 construction and agriculture equipment manufacturers in the world. I’m an expert in lean manufacturing and on the front lines of manufacturing robotics and innovation. While it is true that some jobs in manufacturing have and will continue to be replaced by automation, it will be nowhere near the levels he is predicting.

MahiMike 03-07-2018 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain Man (Post 13454456)
Get back to work. (Snaps whip.)
I finally realized that and decided that I'd try to do fun things now as a tradeoff. If I end up begging on a corner, I'll at least have some good stories to tell.

I've been thinking this way lately. Better to take some trips now before I retire than after when I'm on a fixed income. Going to Vegas next month! Never done something like that but I worked my ass off and received a nice bonus so I'm already playing w/house money.

Course I'm also the guy that eats leftovers every day and only eats out with coupons. I'm on the path to retire in less than 10 years. Shooting for 5.

CapsLockKey 03-07-2018 09:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MahiMike (Post 13455435)
I've been thinking this way lately. Better to take some trips now before I retire than after when I'm on a fixed income. Going to Vegas next month! Never done something like that but I worked my ass off and received a nice bonus so I'm already playing w/house money.

Course I'm also the guy that eats leftovers every day and only eats out with coupons. I'm on the path to retire in less than 10 years. Shooting for 5.

I've seen all these numbers that obviously support saving earlier in life gets you better gains in the long run but many ignore the always decreasing buying power of the dollar and how your earning power typically goes up. Say you get a 6% return on your investments but inflation eats 3% of that. Sure putting 100 a month in savings 20 years ago would net me more than if I started putting 200 a month away now but 100 dollars went a hell of a lot further 20 years ago and was a much larger chunk of my income than what 200 is now.

The trade off that is never part of the equations is life opportunities you sacrifice early on like trips and concerts with friends/family or buying things that bring you joy just to save more. Life experiences mean more to me than money. Finding balance is what's important. I don't care about dying rich if I missed out on things in my life to do it. The key is finding a balance between enjoying your life but protecting yourself enough for the future.

DaneMcCloud 03-07-2018 09:12 PM

There is no guarantee that anyone in this thread is alive tomorrow.

There needs to be a balance between now and the future. I’m not suggesting that anyone live beyond their means but obsessing about the future is detrimental to the present.

Enjoy life.

SAUTO 03-07-2018 09:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud (Post 13455527)
There is no guarantee that anyone in this thread is alive tomorrow.

There needs to be a balance between now and the future. I’m not suggesting that anyone live beyond their means but obsessing about the future is detrimental to the present.

Enjoy life.

I typed a long post out earlier that you summed up just now.

DaneMcCloud 03-07-2018 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SAUTO (Post 13455538)
I typed a long post out earlier that you summed up just now.

Eek, sorry man, I didn’t see it.

All credit goes to you. :D

cooper barrett 03-07-2018 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis (Post 13454488)
I think you're a special kind of stupid. I've already made my money. What part of that is it that you don't understand? What part of "I don't have to assume as much risk as I did when I was younger", do you not comprehend? I've lived through both boom and bust cycles and boom cycles again.

I lived poorly when I was younger and single. I invested that money. Some of it was discipline, but there was a lot of luck involved as well. The payoff is that now I can *afford* to be much more conservative. Like I said, I don't think $1.4M is as much money as people tend to think it is.

Because I was young and single, I could afford to take more risks--and I could afford to plow more of my money into investments. I was an anomaly. I couldn't of done it if I was married, had a mortgage and kids.

I got married later in life; I have enough money where I didn't have to have a mortgage. I only buy used cars. I can afford new cars, but I spend so little time in them, why dump money into a depreciating asset?

My kid doesn't have to worry about college, and I (and my wife) don't have to worry about retirement--and you somehow think I'm late to the party?



You still like to cherry-pick not only stocks, but also time horizons. Why don't any of your stock picks predate Lehman collapsing/housing bubble or the dot.com bubble burst before that? All you've shown are relatively short return timelines in comparison to the required timelines for longterm retirement planning. That doesn't represent reality. I personally don't think *you* actually have any real assets. I bet you get your financial information from an ebook that you found on a Yahoo message board.

That's the other Cooper Barrett, A Hillary supporter, fresh out of FL State and living is southern CA. look him up.

Yes I do, your money is tied up in a stock that under preformed the S+P over all, for the last 30 years. That being said the stock market has never grown a such a fast rate as it has in the last 10 years.

As far as cherry picking, let the pot call the kettle black.
All I did was compare the 10 years of your Berkshire Hathaway "B" stocks to companies that are and were well known names, most of who were well established. I see neither of the BH stocks beating Budweiser over the last 10 years either. Budweiser paid a healthy dividend when BRK does not.

I am sure someone here is impressed that you own a substantial amount of the "B" stock,03/06/2018 - $204.55, and don't know the difference of the A stock worth $307,005.00 a share. $306,800 difference between shares.

I am glad you think I'm broke, actually I don't give a **** what you think, You're the braggart saying you have a $1.4 M portfolio and are highly invested in a stock that has over the last 10 years only delivered a 8.65% return. With an inflation rate of 2.5% your real earnings are only 6%. S+P did better!

1926-1956: +10.77%
1956-1986: +9.63%.
1986-2016: +9.99%

I am going back to my point of saving so you have the opportunity to invest in the big leagues, Save money every month so you can buy in on Walmart in the 70's Home Depot in the 80's, Amazon in the 90's, Apple in the early 2000's. and so on.

It doesn't take a rocket scantest to see that Home Depot 30 years after its IPO not only whooped the shit out of BRK on value, but paid dividends too.

BRKb
Start date: 03/07/2008
End date: 03/06/2018
Start price/share: $89.24
End price/share: $204.55
Dividends collected/share: $0.00
Total return: 129.21%
Average Annual Total Return: 8.65%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $22,929.58
Years: 10.00
Does not pay dividends

HD
Start date: 03/07/2008
End date: 03/06/2018
Start price/share: $25.88
End price/share: $181.64
Starting shares: 386.40
Ending shares: 500.84
Dividends reinvested/share: $17.06
Total return: 809.73%
Average Annual Total Return: 24.70%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $90,976.07
Years: 10.00
Plus pays $2k a year in dividends in 2018

Bud
Start date: 07/01/2009
End date: 03/06/2018
Start price/share: $38.50
End price/share: $112.76
Starting shares: 259.74
Ending shares: 321.82
Dividends reinvested/share: $21.47
Total return: 262.88%
Average Annual Total Return: 16.00%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $36,292.19
Years: 8.68

Plus pays $1200 a year in dividends.

If you would have invested $500K in Home Depot jan 1, 2015 you would own 4950 shares of stock paying a dividend of $1 a share 4 times a year. ($19,800 a year) without touching the principals.

The value of your $500K investment would also be an eye popping $976K.

If you had $500K in BRK Jan 1, 2015 today you would have no dividend income ($60K) and a value of

Wait for it..


It's going to blow you away...


$675082

A difference of $301,000 plus the 60K or $361,000

Yes I do own HD stock I purchased $5K in 2010, another $5K in 2011, now worth just shy of $78K paying a dividend of $1430. in about 2 weeks.

F ****ing YI If you would have invested in HD 5 years after the IPO a $5K investment would be worth $3,708,789 and your dividend check would be.$79K a year.

So you don't have to be lucky or sign on with the devil to make serious money every year and never touch the investment...

Go ahead repeat this three times slowly "I'm late to the party"ROFLROFLROFLROFL

cooper barrett 03-07-2018 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud (Post 13455527)
There is no guarantee that anyone in this thread is alive tomorrow.

There needs to be a balance between now and the future. I’m not suggesting that anyone live beyond their means but obsessing about the future is detrimental to the present.

Enjoy life.

Very well said DMC.:hmmm:

I lost a good friend just under my age to the big C and he told me he always was jealous of me taking a few years after the kids graduated (and the divorce)to do what I wanted to do. He called it "kicking the **** out of the bucket"

He left his wife with 2 successful automotive repair businesses with competent management, paid for real estate, and I am sure enough life insurance to choke a wild boar, but I know when he passed the biggest regret, other than not being there for his wife and 2 kids, was being tied down to grind stone and never "kicking the **** out of the bucket".

I think taking time out in the middle of my life was one of the things I would recommend to everyone.

SAUTO 03-07-2018 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud (Post 13455543)
Eek, sorry man, I didn’t see it.

All credit goes to you. :D

It was long winded and I didn't post it lol.

Buehler445 03-07-2018 11:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iowanian (Post 13454374)
I've worked my ass off since I was a kid and for a lot of years it was just keeping gas in a car and bills paid(never have missed one). I've spent some years in a pension job that will pay some when I retire, then I did the 3 jobs-starting a company-no retirement for a few years, and leveraged that into being ok. I've got a great job, but also do a lot of "side hustle" jobs for cash....I decided this winter that from now on, all of that extra hustle money goes into a cash stack, or is being invested into something else. If you set a goal to make $100 every saturday, it's not that tough to average and my hope is that money adds up and makes a difference down the road.

Retirement is tricky because it depends on a lot of things. I didn't have kids early, which was good at the time because I'm more financially able to do that well, and I'm more responsible. Now i'm in that bubble where I'm building a better life(farms and new houses etc) and spending...which is counter-productive in some ways. I put in a fair amount into retirement accounts and am looking at other ways to grow money.

My two biggest fights right now are fighting the urge to take big swings at things...I'm toying with buying land I don't need, or building buildings I don't need as investments....I'm in that wheelhouse where I'm able to make things happen but only have limited years to earn the cash to pay for those things....so that I have some investments that are paying me in the future, just because I did it.

The second part is the kids....between broken bones and all of the typical things, I am trying to decide what I'll be able to do for them(college). I've got Mutual funds for them that I put a little into each month to try to get some put away for each of them, but honestly riding them and making sure they get good grades for scholarships is my best option.

I was talking with my Jr High kid last night about her future....She sat in the fat guy chair with me before bed and said she'd been thinking about careers and sees herself in the medical field, nursing or something. I can definitely see it for tradition as well as personality reasons....but I encouraged her to think bigger....to know she can be a doctor if she chooses, not to limit herself. That said, we also talked about taking college classes while in high school, because those credits are free. If you want to be a nurse or an MD, you're going to get your CNA and work in HS, so you'll be able to earn some money in a related field while you get that RN(or whatever)...and then you can work as an RN as you obtain that BSN or whatever your path may be.

I'll do what I can do to help them, but I'm not planning to write a check. My experience was that kids who had some skin in the game tried harder. I'd have washed out if I didn't have skin in the game in college.

Now....If I can just come up with million dollar idea that will let me retire in 5 years......I've got a big "to do" list at home.

Your comments on college bear discussion.

It certainly impacted me paying my own way. In fact a big selling point for me on the college I chose was tuition cost. It checked all the other boxes, AACSB accredited business school, a long way from home, reasonable campus, no giant red flags, but you can bet your ass I was listening when the gal told me "lowest cost 4 year tuition in in the state".

Causation/Correlation argument applies, I may have been paying attention because I'm pragmatic, but it definitely made me take a look at the value of dollars spent (borrowed).

I imagine like everything else it depends on the kid, but I've seen enough people absolutely **** off classes without a concern of the cost or the damage they do to their career that it is at least a discussion worth having.

BlackOp 03-07-2018 11:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch (Post 13453055)
Oh jeez, come on dude. The world has never been a better place in which to live. In 1900 the life expectancy for an American was like 47, in 1935 it was 61 (which is why Soc Sec was set at 65 that year....they didn't think we'd live to receive it). Today it's almost 80.


There's no polio, there's little infant mortality, almost no influenza death like the one in 1917 that wiped out millions of people. No black plague. Cars are much, much safer (as are the roads), hospitals are superior, medical technology is insanely good.


And you're worried about teen bullying on the CrapNet?

I think you missed the point...my post wasn't about the length of your life...that shit can end on a dime. It was about not subjecting my children to what's going to take shape in the future.

They will be like me...and notice minutia and manipulation. The microchip has introduced a new level evil (term used loosely)...to those that look at every technical advancement as a way to exploit/monopolize/control.

I lived before the internet and grew with it. Things are NOT better now...just basic life functions are more convenient/immediate. There are more suicides than ever...and that should be the measuring stick for societal happiness/well being.

The master plan was always to make those in bondage not only accept their servitude...but convince them to love it.

When your police/military start looking like storm troopers...it's a tell-tale.

Fat Elvis 03-07-2018 11:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cooper barrett (Post 13455551)
That's the other Cooper Barrett, A Hillary supporter, fresh out of FL State and living is southern CA. look him up.

Yes I do, your money is tied up in a stock that under preformed the S+P over all, for the last 30 years. That being said the stock market has never grown a such a fast rate as it has in the last 10 years.

As far as cherry picking, let the pot call the kettle black.
All I did was compare the 10 years of your Berkshire Hathaway "B" stocks to companies that are and were well known names, most of who were well established. I see neither of the BH stocks beating Budweiser over the last 10 years either. Budweiser paid a healthy dividend when BRK does not.

I am sure someone here is impressed that you own a substantial amount of the "B" stock,03/06/2018 - $204.55, and don't know the difference of the A stock worth $307,005.00 a share. $306,800 difference between shares.

I am glad you think I'm broke, actually I don't give a **** what you think, You're the braggart saying you have a $1.4 M portfolio and are highly invested in a stock that has over the last 10 years only delivered a 8.65% return. With an inflation rate of 2.5% your real earnings are only 6%. S+P did better!

1926-1956: +10.77%
1956-1986: +9.63%.
1986-2016: +9.99%

I am going back to my point of saving so you have the opportunity to invest in the big leagues, Save money every month so you can buy in on Walmart in the 70's Home Depot in the 80's, Amazon in the 90's, Apple in the early 2000's. and so on.

It doesn't take a rocket scantest to see that Home Depot 30 years after its IPO not only whooped the shit out of BRK on value, but paid dividends too.

BRKb
Start date: 03/07/2008
End date: 03/06/2018
Start price/share: $89.24
End price/share: $204.55
Dividends collected/share: $0.00
Total return: 129.21%
Average Annual Total Return: 8.65%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $22,929.58
Years: 10.00
Does not pay dividends

HD
Start date: 03/07/2008
End date: 03/06/2018
Start price/share: $25.88
End price/share: $181.64
Starting shares: 386.40
Ending shares: 500.84
Dividends reinvested/share: $17.06
Total return: 809.73%
Average Annual Total Return: 24.70%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $90,976.07
Years: 10.00
Plus pays $2k a year in dividends in 2018

Bud
Start date: 07/01/2009
End date: 03/06/2018
Start price/share: $38.50
End price/share: $112.76
Starting shares: 259.74
Ending shares: 321.82
Dividends reinvested/share: $21.47
Total return: 262.88%
Average Annual Total Return: 16.00%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $36,292.19
Years: 8.68

Plus pays $1200 a year in dividends.

If you would have invested $500K in Home Depot jan 1, 2015 you would own 4950 shares of stock paying a dividend of $1 a share 4 times a year. ($19,800 a year) without touching the principals.

The value of your $500K investment would also be an eye popping $976K.

If you had $500K in BRK Jan 1, 2015 today you would have no dividend income ($60K) and a value of

Wait for it..


It's going to blow you away...


$675082

A difference of $301,000 plus the 60K or $361,000

Yes I do own HD stock I purchased $5K in 2010, another $5K in 2011, now worth just shy of $78K paying a dividend of $1430. in about 2 weeks.

F ****ing YI If you would have invested in HD 5 years after the IPO a $5K investment would be worth $3,708,789 and your dividend check would be.$79K a year.

So you don't have to be lucky or sign on with the devil to make serious money every year and never touch the investment...

Go ahead repeat this three times slowly "I'm late to the party"ROFLROFLROFLROFL

You may very well be the dumbest poster on the planet.

There comes a certain point where you become less concerned about growing your wealth and more concerned about protecting it and maintaining it.

If you are at that point, you aren't late to the party, you are already at it.

You make a lot of assumptions about my money. I've never said what my net worth is, and it really isn't anyone's business.

What I have said is that $1.4M isn't as much money as a lot of folks think it is; I said that because that was what was being recommended earlier in the thread. I say that because I work in health care policy--I have a pretty good idea how much it costs to get old. It ain't cheap and you can blow through $1.4M in nothing flat. I've seen families who are shocked that they lose everything because Mom had a stroke or Dad developed alzheimers--and then they didn't die a quick death.

Here's the thing: Most financial planners don't talk to you about that kind of stuff because it is bad for business. When people talk about retirement planning, they want to talk about how much money they will live on and enjoy life--no one wants to hear that when they get old, there is a high probability that they will become disabled. When you start talking about health care costs and long term care costs for the elderly, if you aren't well insured for that (and that is expensive), you're pretty well ****ed.

Like I said in my earlier post. I was able to save and invest early. I was an anomaly because I was single, no mortgage, no debt, no bills. I also said part of it was discipline and part of it was luck. And I'm not stupid enough to discount luck. I was really lucky on some stocks, but my real luck stems from the fact I was lucky enough to have a mother who prepared SEC filings for a major public utility so she had the necessary skills to really understand earning statements and balance sheets of companies I tended to invest in. She was very good at her job. She retired when she was 49. She also had a keen eye for emerging technologies and stocks. For example, she was a very early adopter of ebay; early enough that her user name/seller ID consisted of two characters. She gave me a lot of great stock tips. That's the kind of "luck" most people don't have.

She didn't give me money to invest. I had to be an adult and make and manage my own money. That is where the discipline comes in. Having that combination of luck, discipline, and favorable circumstances where I had money to invest when I was younger that a lot of people my age at the time didn't have is also why I don't have a lot (relatively speaking) of money left in the market anymore, and what money I do have in the market is in stocks that have little to no volatility.

This may come as a surprise to you, but there are other ways of generating wealth that aren't tied to the market.

So you've managed to invest $10K in Home Depot and it has appreciated over time. Congratulations. Go you.

cooper barrett 03-08-2018 01:08 AM

I would go ask your mommy why you're holding a vast amount of what sure looks like a turd stock at 8.75% return with no dividend that IS directly tied to the market.



If wish Fuzzy's Spirits would go public, until then, I'll just sip on this bottle of this 100X that was left on my door. Just think, dividends in a martini glass.

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