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Chris Meck 01-31-2019 08:48 AM

1/31 Meck Mock
 
Tag and trade Ford-receive GB's #30 pick, Roger is 35. They're going all in to get back in the hunt immediately.

Houston, Berry, Sorensen- (Dirty Dan any time, doesn't matter.) June 1 cuts free up: $27.7

2019 cap room: Spotrac estimates $36 million. I've seen $44 and as low as $28 so I'm taking the median.

I re-sign: Sherman, Butker, Allen, Devey, West, Lucas. roughly $11 million total.

FA:
I sign Landon Collins, SS to a 5 year deal at $9.4 per. He'll be 30 when the deal is up.

I sign KJ Wright to a 3 year deal at $7 million per. He's 30, coming off an injury season so that's about right. A leader on field, plays SAM. Seahawks will move on.

I sign Chris Long to a 2 year deal at $3 million per. Veteran stop gap, high leadership quality, still had 7 sacks in 2018.

Draft: Chiefs have #29, #30, #61, #64, #92 in first 3 rounds, no 4th, plus 5, 6, 7.

#29 Jaylon Ferguson, DE/Edge, Lousiana Tech
#30 Deandre Baker, CB, Georgia
#61, Rock Ya-Sin, CB, Temple. Spags likes CB's early and often.
#64 CJ Conrad, TE, Kentucky. Reid gets a new toy with a #2 TE that can actually catch the ball. Hey, he blocks, too! What do you know.
#92 Erik McCoy, OC, Texas A&M. competes with Reiter day 1 to start.
#156, Joe Gaziano, DT, Northwestern. solid pass rusher, high motor guy.
#187 D'Cota Dixon, S, Wisconsin. Ball hawking FS.
#192 Porter Gustin, OLB, USC. Future SAM prospect.

with the June 1 savings, I extend Jones and Hill.

Collins, Jones, and the young guys are the future of the defense. Long and Wright add strong leadership, mentoring the young guys, have been leaders on strong defenses and still have a little left in the tank.
CB-Baker, Fuller, Ya-Sin, Ward (now a killer corps)
at S, Collins, Lucas, Watts, and Dixon is real solid and versatile.
LB corps with Hitchens, O'Daniel and Wright looks good.
D-line, Long rotates with Ferguson at RDE, Jones, Nnadi, Gaziano looks good inside, Speaks/Kpass at LDE is solid.

Added a C and a nice TE for Reid to play with.

And it would all fit under the cap. Most importantly, I didn't do anything to screw the team cap-wise in the future. Reasonable deals and as long as we draft well, we're in the hunt every year.

*I used Spotrac's market estimations for all FA deals.

pugsnotdrugs19 01-31-2019 09:00 AM

While this would be an awesome offseason, I think your salary projections, especially for guys like Collins and Wright, are too low. I’d be surprised personally if they get rid of both Houston and Ford, but I suppose it’s possible.

Chris Meck 01-31-2019 09:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 (Post 14082884)
While this would be an awesome offseason, I think your salary projections, especially for guys like Collins and Wright, are too low. Iíd be surprised personally if they get rid of both Houston and Ford, but I suppose itís possible.

I used Spotrac's market estimations. shrug.

pugsnotdrugs19 01-31-2019 09:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Meck (Post 14082895)
I used Spotrac's market estimations. shrug.

Hmm. That surprises me.

Maybe itíll work out that way because the safety market is deep but Iíd think Collins can get at least $11M on the market and probably more.

Chris Meck 01-31-2019 09:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 (Post 14082903)
Hmm. That surprises me.

Maybe itíll work out that way because the safety market is deep but Iíd think Collins can get at least $11M on the market and probably more.

I think they're figuring that the position overall is de-valued.

Wright would be higher, but he's 30 and missed 11 games last year. Not having the huge sack totals, too, although he's a nice all-around player.

Chris Meck 01-31-2019 09:17 AM

I also didn't butt right up to the cap, figuring there'd be need for flexibility and signing rookies and reclamation projects.

Hoover 01-31-2019 09:26 AM

My only question on this would be is it necessary to cut Houston to make all that happen?

Chris Meck 01-31-2019 09:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hoover (Post 14082926)
My only question on this would be is it necessary to cut Houston to make all that happen?

Cutting Houston is $15.5 million to play with.

I suppose not if you wait to restructure either Jones or Hill.

If you think Houston is still a SAM at this point in his career I suppose you could not sign Wright, but I don't think he is.

If you think he's a DE then you don't sign Long, but honestly, Long was almost as productive a player at 1/5 the cost just last season. As well as being available every week.

Hoover 01-31-2019 09:34 AM

Fair. Not opposed to cutting him, just curious.

Chris Meck 01-31-2019 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hoover (Post 14082940)
Fair. Not opposed to cutting him, just curious.

Yeah, I mean, the more look I look around, the more I see guys in the 30+ range that are just as productive, healthy more often, and a LOT less money.

I mean he signed that deal coming off the 22 sack season, and he hasn't done anything like that since. He's a good player, but he's been way overpaid for his production and availability.

I don't think there is any restructure that gets his price down to, say, $8 million a year, which is about what his production says he should be paid. Roughly, estimating using the Spotracs market estimations for similar players production-wise in his now 30+ age group.

Chris Meck 01-31-2019 10:19 AM

the other thing I like here is that Wright and Long have been champions. That's leadership that's worth more than their cap numbers.

The Franchise 01-31-2019 10:40 AM

You only get two June 1st cuts.

Chris Meck 01-31-2019 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Franchise (Post 14083036)
You only get two June 1st cuts.

Oh. Well, then cut Sorensen tomorrow, and take $1 million off your savings.

*edited OP to reflect that.

bowener 01-31-2019 11:22 AM

Houston doesn't get let go. He is either a Chief or he is traded. You have to be crazy to think in this league Houston has no value on the trade block, age and contract aside he is still a phenomenal player that is, for whatever reason, undervalued by the brains on this board. If the Chiefs had any kind of secondary this season he and Ford would have had 25% more sacks at minimum.

Let's say Ford is gone, which I don't think is as likely as everybody else, Houston and Speaks wold be great DEs. Houston could also still be a great LB in the 4-3. The fact that both of those statements are likely true tells you that he will remain here because of his versatility and locker room presence.

edit: and while Wright will be a vet he won't provide a lot of leadership right away since nobody on the team will know him and he barely played last season. Which leaves who, Jones as the only vet leadership? I haven't seen anything saying he is looked at by the defense as a leader or not. Whereas Houston is absolutely looked at as a leader in the locker room. With a new coach coming in keeping veteran leadership in place will help with the transition (except in the case of somewhere like Pitt where it is a shit show that needs cleaned out).

Chris Meck 01-31-2019 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bowener (Post 14083115)
Houston doesn't get let go. He is either a Chief or he is traded. You have to be crazy to think in this league Houston has no value on the trade block, age and contract aside he is still a phenomenal player that is, for whatever reason, undervalued by the brains on this board. If the Chiefs had any kind of secondary this season he and Ford would have had 25% more sacks at minimum.

Let's say Ford is gone, which I don't think is as likely as everybody else, Houston and Speaks wold be great DEs. Houston could also still be a great LB in the 4-3. The fact that both of those statements are likely true tells you that he will remain here because of his versatility and locker room presence.

edit: and while Wright will be a vet he won't provide a lot of leadership right away since nobody on the team will know him and he barely played last season. Which leaves who, Jones as the only vet leadership? I haven't seen anything saying he is looked at by the defense as a leader or not. Whereas Houston is absolutely looked at as a leader in the locker room. With a new coach coming in keeping veteran leadership in place will help with the transition (except in the case of somewhere like Pitt where it is a shit show that needs cleaned out).

Houston would be an excellent RDE, I agree. I don't undervalue him at all, I just don't think anyone is worth $21 million on our cap that isn't named Mahomes. Nobody's going to pay Houston $21 million, so unless he seriously restructures, I don't see anyone taking him on trade. Easier to just wait until he's cut and then sign him on whatever you negotiate. I'd keep Houston in a heartbeat if you can get him to a reasonable cap number. I'm not certain you can, which is why I chose to cut him and sign Chris Long, who was nearly as productive at 1/5 the cost.

Long has a ring, has played on several good teams and been a leader for a long time. He and Wright along with Collins would be pretty stable leadership. That's why I chose them. Long is obviously a 1 to 2 year stop gap, so that's why I drafted Ferguson to spell/replace him.


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