Draft Trade Calculator
 

Someone finally put together all of the trade value charts together into one app. I've only been playing around with this thing for a little bit but **** if it isn't valuable.

https://rbsdm.com/stats/trade-calculator-app/

<a href="https://ibb.co/9vctFgx"><img src="https://i.ibb.co/g7mV590/KC-Trades-Up-with-DET-for-Pick-31.png" alt="KC-Trades-Up-with-DET-for-Pick-31" border="0"></a>

That's just a test trade to move up from 31 to 18. You can see the value from each of the charts and at the bottom is the difference along with the value of that difference.

You can also change the discount of future picks and whether that trade up is for a QB.

Interesting little calc but I'm left wanting a lot more functionality lol.

Here's some other references to the charts in there:

• Chase Stuart Draft Trade Value Chart
  
• Ben Baldwin Surplus Value Trade Chart
  
• OTC Fitzgerald-Spielberger Draft Trade Value Chart
  
• Rich Hill Draft Trade Value Chart
  
• Jimmy Johnson Draft Trade Value Chart

It would have been nice if the teams picks were already a part of it. That way I didn't have to go look up numbers and put them in but for something free...I can't complain too much.

True. Although I have a Google sheet developed that's similar and lets me select teams via dropdown then check boxes to select the picks. I'd just have to extend it to include the other chart values outside of the Hill model.

From what I've seen in practice, it seems like the Hill model is really close early on (like first 3 rounds), then it tends to deviate more towards the Johnson model.

I might take the time one of these years to actually dive into the historical trades and develop my own but its a project.

I do like a bit of the stuff out there from Baldwin and Fitzgerald on salary cap value effects and things like that but I haven't seen alot in their literature on actual correlation to real trades.

Overachiever...

I know lol. I'm an accountant so all I do all day outside of use the ledger software is play with spreadsheets. Everything goes in a damned spreadsheet lol.

I work in analytics, and absolutely love excel.

It's my happy place.

The trade value chart seems off on next years value in compensation. I’ve heard that the value of a pick next is half what it would be this year. And that seems like a ridiculous discount to me. Would you discount a pick by half for next year? For example, say the 49ers offered their first next year for our 2nd and 4th this year, that feels like we are robbing the 49ers? Am I looking at this the wrong way? Why is one year worth half in trade value or a substantial discount? That seems like a bargain and I’d take next years compensation as often as I could.

It used to be "Discount by a round"

What I've seen recently is that it's a 20% discount for most teams though it depends on the situation on the ground. The 20% discount is typically presuming that a team that's good/bad in year 1 will be similarly good/bad in year 2.

Though we can look at roster situations and know that not to be the case. So teams will adjust a bit accordingly.

But yeah, the discount by a round thing is largely dead and I've not seen anyone suggest discounting by 50% but it does seem like 20% is a largely accepted baseline at this point.

I wonder if it’s the best strategy for the long term to trade for picks in next years draft. If you can get a 30-40% discount for waiting one year, couldn’t that be a way to give us a better advantage? We are always picking at the back end of the draft and the chiefs are a huge disadvantage in acquiring talent.

Sometimes it's more than 50%, sometimes it's less. It's usually discounted more the higher in the round you are. Like last year when Arizona and Houston traded, it was like a 65% discount of future picks.

How about #32 + #64 + 2025 2nd = #20 + #52 from PIT?

...we still have TEN 2025 early RD 3 pick.

That's probably the sort of move we'd see Veach make, I agree.

I think next year's 2nd is the most likely asset we have to see moved in this draft and getting up into the early 20s and 50s with it is almost an ideal use of the asset. That puts us right in a nice pocket for a LT and WR with those two picks.

Are the Steelers really going to trade down in both of the first two rounds just for a 2nd round pick next year? I'm not seeing it.

Interesting article….

Offer Jones $100 this year or $274 next year and his answer will unquestionably be the latter. But offer him a third-rounder this year or a second-rounder next year and he’s likely to think it over a little longer.

https://theathletic.com/5416007/2024...serId=12657204

He’s another one…. Similar theme.

'Everyone is just looking out for themselves'
In 2017, the Bears dealt the No. 3 pick, two thirds and a fourth to the 49ers to move up one spot in the draft. At No. 2, they chose their guy, Mitch Trubisky. It wasn't a reach at the time, as scouts ranked Trubisky the No. 1 QB in his class. That same year, the Chiefs sent two first-round picks and a third for the Bills' No. 10 pick, drafting Patrick Mahomes.

Regardless of how their careers would unfold, trade value charts had the teams who traded back — the 49ers and Bills — winning both deals by receiving upwards of 150 cents on the dollar. Why?

As Alec Lewis explains in an enlightening story on the NFL's approach to the draft, research has shown that teams should accumulate picks by trading back and into the future more often: "The more darts you have, the better your chance of eventually hitting the bull’s-eye."

In 2005, a research paper on overconfidence in the NFL revealed analysis on decision-making during the draft. Key themes:
Evaluating prospects is difficult. Our stats back it up: Across the past 13 years, first-round WRs were either a bust or a reach 63 percent of the time. The hit rate for top-10 QBs was not much better, with teams drafting stars at just a 26 percent rate.

Teams aren't as smart as they think. The researchers found that "teams massively overestimate their abilities to delineate between stars and flops, and because of that they heavily overvalue the 'right to choose' in the draft."

Given the uncertainty, the more picks, the better. The highly coveted QB position demonstrates the downside of trading up to get "your guy," unless he turns out to be Mahomes. Across the past 13 NFL drafts, nearly 70 percent of years saw the best QB drafted after the first QB was taken. For example, Lamar Jackson went No. 32 in 2018 as the fifth QB taken. Trade back.

This makes a lot of sense bc team's devalue next year's picks if offered this year. For instance, the Chiefs might have to offer next year's 1st to get to #15 if we want to take BTJ, this year we'd have to discount the value of next year's pick by at least 100 points and probably offer our extra 5th, or whatever, to put the cherry on top, but next year the value of that 1st round pick is back to its original so that's a win for the Colts in this hypothetical.

Gets even more complicated when you involve a player into the mix. Like why was Tyreek worth what we got? Yes because that's what Miami was willing to pay but why?

I'd add to this that offering x2 1sts for WR is a risky strategy. Pretty sure I saw a stat in the other thread that said 64% of 1st round WR's bust. I'd prob feel more comfortable with a trade using TEN's 2025 high-end 3rd rounder.

Ultimately, I think Veach has narrowed in on the best value at WR comes from the 2nd round. As an example, I'd bet we could flip next year's second or extra 3rd to make a similar move to the above in the 2nd. If we lost next year's 2nd, we'd still have TEN high value 3rd round pick, but it's actually that TEN pick that I think we're most likely to deal.

32 is worth 590
64 is worth 270
Future second is worth 116. Future first is barely worth 270 points.

20 is worth 850
52 is worth 380

That deal would actually require us to use next years first just to get the value close.

That would have KC using 1130 draft value points to get 1230 draft value points.

That trade would help us immensely. We would come out with a blue chip offensive player and another offensive weapon to help balance the offense going forward.

And I’d pull that trigger in a heartbeat.