Then & Now...Week 6 vs. AFCCG
 

There are some significant differences between the 2 games that are largely favoring the Chiefs imo.

1. Obviously it is at Arrowhead not Gillete + Chiefs

2. Josh Gordon will not be running around in the secondary + Chiefs

3. Kareem Hunt will not be pwning the NE D + Pats

4. Shaw (WHO?) will not be covering Gronk + Chiefs

5. Speaks will not be starting for Houston + Chiefs

6. Wylie will be starting for LDT - Wash

7. Ward will be playing at CB instead of whoever did in Week 6 + Chiefs

8. Lucas will be starting at Safety instead of ???? + Chiefs

9. (Edit) The Pats will not go with 0 penalties accepted + Chiefs

Those are some very significant differences for this game and primarily on the defensive side of the ball. Take away a couple of offensive mistakes in week 6 and we still win. Now bring it to our house with an improved defense, at least personnel wise.

All good points, Mr. peterz28. And valid ones, too.

It's also going to be -15 degrees Celsius. It was a little warmer in October.

They say the Cheaters like the cold. Somebody pull the plug on their bench warmers and let's find out.

FAX

I really don't think the cold will play a huge factor against them in and of itself. Now, we start punching them in the mouth and suddenly freezing your ass off while losing a game starts getting in your head....

Overall i'm optimistic.

My one worry is the slow drives NE was putting on the bolts. Time consuming, wearing out the defense, keeping PM2 off the field.

But, again, overall optimistic.

The Chargers invited that by running out 6 & 7 DB defenses. Brady saw that and they pounded the ball on the ground as they should have. Then again, I was saying during the Ravens\Chargers game that Brady was going to carve the Chargers defense apart. So what he did was expected for the most part.

Biggest change has to come from how KC opens the game...

FG, INT, FG, FG, INT... halftime

That's just not the way to do it vs the Patriots and while fighting back from that deficit of 24-9 was valiant, the defense has to own the first half.

At the end of the day, Brady and that team are hell for anyone... they're not as great as they have been, but they're far from terrible.

Lost @ NEP on a late FG... if KC gets a TD on one of those first 5 drives, it's a different ending most likely.

This is Brady's 8th consecutive AFCCG... Mahomes was in the 8th grade the last time Brady wasn't playing for the right to go to the SB. But, the history is of little importance to him and for good reason.

I think KC wins it by 13 on Sunday. I think it will be close early in the 4th, but something breaks with about 5 minutes left and a 6 point KC lead grows to 13 with the game ending on a Brady INT late.

There you go.

Stop that reverse mojo shit!

Why is Wylie starting for LDT a negative for the Redskins?

Honestly guys I think we come out and put the Pats and Brady back on their heels early just like we did to the Colts. If Brady can’t impose himself early and/or has any kind of rush coming at him the game is over.

In my past experience at Arrowhead when it gets that cold it starts to sap the energy out of the Arrowhead crowd. Hopefully Mahomes keeps us warm with his nuclear-powered arm.

Gonna guess that the people who brave the weather for this showdown will tend to be the more relentless of our ilk.

No reverse mojo... I have zero desire to see the Patriots advance. None. If that means that you guys get to enjoy your team playing for the title, so be it. I don't gain anything from either outcome, but would like to see someone not named the Patriots play for the title. And, as I've said before - you guys should be able to enjoy watching your team win it all.

Yeah but this is the most critical game in Chiefs' history ..at least since the last time we went to the SB.

First AFCCG ever at KC
Win and you're in
Mahomes


this crowd will be absolutely crazy as ****!

And here is one intangible most are not talking about which I understand...

The pressure is on Brady, not Mahomes. If the Chiefs lose they can say "well hey, it took the greatest QB that ever played the game to beat us". There is no shame is saying you lost an AFCCG to Tom Brady and the Pats. It's not like you lost it to even Ben The Rapist or Luck or even Manning for that matter.

That all being said, Brady has the pressure on him to win on the road and not let a 23 year old kid school his ass.

This... last time the Patriots played a road playoff game and won was @ Chargers in 2006. He lost to Manning on the road in the AFCCG in 2006, 2013 and 2015. They've enjoyed a nice playoff home stretch, that's over.

Offering my .02$ on NEP differences (from a New England PoV)

-Emergence of JC Jackson at CB. The guy is glue. It'll be he and JJ on Weeks the entire game.
-Gronk is a blocker now
-Losing Josh Gordon was tough but he ran a limited route tree here. In some respects, the offense is better without him.
-Run D hs improved but still very average.
-O Line is at a dominant level at both pass & run blocking
-Devin McCourty playing much better
-Overall pass defense has been outstanding for the last couple of months
-Edelman back to who he was before the injury
-Tom is Tom
-Hightower is back to old Hightower

That will be the narrative, for sure, Mr. Zebedee DuBois.

Then again, wasn't that what we were told before the Greatest O-Line In NFL History took the field on Saturday?

The Cheaters won't like our man-to-man coverage. NAMBLA Guy will want the run game and the dink & dunk, for sure. We'll focus on taking away the slant/flat game and that will be big. If we can also stop the run on 1st and 2nd downs, we'll be just fine.

The other thing to remember is that NAMBLA Guy hates (I mean, hates) interior pressure. If #95 has a game and Sutton continues to scheme up some sweet stunts with Fiddy and #87, he will fold. Those hits in frigid weather hurt old bones.

On the other side, I don't see how their defense can stop us with Sammy "Feets" Watkins in the game. They might not even slow us down much.

FAX

I had to edit the OP....the odds the Pats go with 0 penalties this game are slim and none. And I think slim just left......

Mufflers and mittens are a problem.

Everybody needs to bring two deflated footballs to the game and slam them together. That should work.

FAX

Thanks for the vote of confidence MHM. Brady and crew have never faired well in either Denver or KC the majority of the time that is for sure.;)

Point well taken pete. But Brady has won 5 SBs and played in 8. This ain't his first rodeo however to dovetail into your point about "the pressure". Brady has watched this kid all year make these amazing plays and become not only the darling of the NFL Media but even more so the darling of the NFL fanbase and I think Brady has had enough of "Showtime". And what better motivation and a way to neutralize the pressure than to "steal this kid's lunch $$" right in his own house in front of his family" when everybody thinks that Brady and crew are over the hill now.

Bingo.

Tom finds motivation in everything.

The thing is, motivation only goes so far. He's a 40-year old pocket QB. He was never that nimble and he's certainly not now.

He's not going to be able to WILL them to a win, no matter how badly he wants to. At the end of the day, it's going to depend on who wins more matchups on defense.

I would certainly hope the Patriots pass defense has looked outstanding the last couple of months. They've played one of the weakest schedules in the NFL in that regard.

think positive thoughts

Did well later in the year.

They should have though. Did you look at the graphic?

Over the last half of the season they played the following passing offenses (in terms of efficiency): #2, #8, #12, #16, and then #25, #27, #31, and #28 twice.

I mean for all of the talk about how terrible the Chiefs are, they've played an INFINITELY tougher 2nd half schedule than the Patriots. There isn't ANY green at all since the Rams game.

Houston, Ford, and Jones just need to introduce the GOAT to the grass as many times as humanly possible in the first 2-3 series, Brady doesn't play nearly as well when he's getting his uniform dirty ! So Let's help him to the turf repeatedly !!! GO CHIEFS !

Need to add Dorian O’Daniel. He didn’t play last time. Pats like those RB passes in the flat and this guy was made to defend those.

Yes I did.

My only point is the pass D for NE has much improved over the year

Note I didn't say anything about the Chiefs D. Just the NEP.

Will he play? he was out last week.

Good thing that KC squad won't be motivated at all. This is really a look-ahead. Classic trap game...

Right but you still haven't acknowledged that the pass D improved right in line with the weakness of their opponents' passing offenses.

Their pass defense HAD to improve - they feasted on the Bills, Jets, Titans, and Dolphins.

+ Dirty Dan

ROFL

Mahomes. Can we talk about how much his footwork improved since the Pats game? Pretty choppy on the quick stuff, even threw off his back foot on the short stuff. His footwork vs indy was superb. Watch the two games side by side.

But he's also seen a hell of a lot of blitz looks. Mahomes had to carry a limping offense during a brutal defense stretch. He's a hell of a lot more prepared for new England's blitz looks than he was early in the season.

Yep.

Appreciate the intel Mr. Weatherman. But you would need a living god to lead them into arctic cold arrowhead, the loudest recorded stadium in the world, filled with 10's of thousands of people who despise and hate the patriots organization. Not to mention a Chiefs defense that will be licking their chops to get after Tom Brady who will need to go stride for stride against Mahomes. I don't think Tom Brady is a living god.

I've been taking one for the team the past 2 weeks with KC's historically bad playoff mojo. Just took another hit tonight. We got this shit.

I'm not playing this game. If you want to come out and say the Pats' pass D is overrated feel free. You won't hurt my feelings.

Is this trash talk?

I was just commenting on at his age, Tom finds motivation in unlikely sources.

this is the worthiest opponent. If we win, we ****ing deserve it. We'll have beat the best of all time to get there.

I can imagine how KC sees playing NE as a pit stop to the Super Bowl. We've had a tough year. Tom's a year older, maligned run defense, shallow depth at WR and LB and Gronk pretty much retired.

Check your sarcasm meter...may need recalibration.

Since that game the Pats have evolved into a running football team. They finished the regular season 2nd only to Seattle in rushing attempts and 1st in handoffs to a running back.

:D

Its hard to take off your gloves when its in the single digits. Your yelling is diminished. Some of that advantage is useless in single digit cold.


But, we cant control the weather. Its still Arrowhead. The Pats have lose 3 straight on the road in the AFCCG. It's our time.

You want to the King of the hill? You have to knock the current King off the hill.

Our sporting KC chant is appropriate here

I believe that we will win
I believe that we will win
Etc
Etc

NE ran the ball 38 times that night and Michel/White went for 145 on 30 carries. So there's really no difference as it pertains to this matchup.

I didn't come out and say they're overrated because they're not.

They've played commensurate to their level of competition.

If you want to come out and say the Pats defense is GOOD, be my guest. You won't hurt my feelings.

But you'd be wrong. ;)

Yep.

I think the NE matchup, for the Chiefs, was the harder of the two between them and the Chargers.

Yes, the Chargers are talented. Yes, they won in Arrowhead.

The simple fact is that the Chargers have no character. No actual "soul". They're a paper team and their QB is a paper tiger. They've been dominated by the Chiefs just like they've been dominated by the Patriots in the postseason.

THIS game, against New England, is the way it should be. If they Chiefs win, they beat the GOAT, they beat THE dynasty. New England is the best team in the AFC until somebody proves otherwise. That happens on Sunday.

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I think the only real differences between us now and in October are, Gordon is gone, our running game has evolved somewhat, and our defense is playing a little more consistently.

Gordon being gone is a big loss. He finally was fully integrated into the offense right before he went off the reservation again. He wasn’t what he was in 2013 but he was our only deep threat and definitely helped open things up underneath for Edelman and the backs in space.

The running game has been better mainly due to the O-line. There was a goal line TD against the Chargers where everyone one of their D-lineman were pushed into the end zone. If we can win in the trenches I think it will go along way to neutralizing the pass rush that the Chiefs have. As far as that pass rush goes, I know Chris Jones is an all world pass rusher on the interior but I’ve heard he’s a liability against the run? What are everyone’s thoughts on that?

As for the defense we still don’t have a great pass rush but we have been getting a little more pressure as of late. Some well timed blitzes and a good secondary have definitely helped us over the last month or so. All that goes out the window if Hill is parting our double teams like the Red Sea. I’m assuming Bill will do whatever he can to take away Hill or Kelce and hoot the other one doesn’t kill us but I really have no idea how. My guess would be JC Jackson on Hill with safety help over the top and chipping Kelce on every play with Chung in coverage. Basically it’s pick your poison and I just hope not to see any peace signs.

From watching your last game it was your fullback James Develin and the blocking of your tight ends Gronkowski and Dwayne Allen. Man if only Travis Kelce could block, what a player he could be! Right now Kelce is just a move tight end. I wonder if he'll ever try to be competent blocker.

That Develin guy, he might be the best blocking fullback in the business. Not sure how Sherman made the all-pro over him, Sherman barely played! ROFL

Here's the thing about the NE running game. They were AWESOME agains the Chiefs back in Week 6. It just wasn't enough to keep Mahomes off the field or put the Chiefs away, at Foxboro even.

Chris Jones is a liability against the run, you heard right. It's because he's shooting up the field on every play. And while that in theory sounds good, it cuts both ways. It completely cancels out the whole idea that you can slow down the pass rush by running the ball. Our defense, especially Jones and a little bit Ford, don't play the run so much as they just shoot up field. Running the ball isn't going to the change that, so it's not like you can pound the rock and get them to stop and think about it. They basically play every down like it's a pass, which gets them gashed in the run game but creates havoc on pass plays. Does that make sense?

Ha

By the same criteria you have a similar assessment of the Chiefs' defense?

Gronk has definitely fallen off as an elite TE receiving-wise but as a blocker he’s still one of the best there is. He was walling off the DE’s on Sunday and was basically an extension of the O-line. As for Develin he definitely got robbed for the pro bowl. Especially since last year he was a pro bowler and he has had a better year this year even if you don’t count the few TD’s he’s scored. He’s been a battering ram as a lead blocker and big a big part of Sony coming on the second half of the year.

Certainly. The Chiefs defense is flat out BAD against the run. Almost regardless of opponent. Like the Patriots, the Chiefs pass defense has gotten better over the last quarter of the season.

That being said, over the last half of the season, the level of competition (in terms of pass efficiency of the opposing offenses) isn't close to comparable. The Patriots have played against 4 of the 5 worst passing offenses in the league. Kansas City hasn't played ANYBODY below #17.

We will need to limit the quick TD/big plays along with the running game to win. In October we ran well but in the second half gave up a lot of chunk plays. In the end of the day keeping Mahomes off the field is how we win.

If Jones and Ford are just charging up the field every down I would assume we will mix in some draw plays with James White and Burkhead as well as plenty of screen passes (hopefully not Josh’s double fake screen). If the pass rush, especially in the interior of the O-line, is in Brady’s face all day that’s when things fall apart. How is Houston by the way? He looked like his old self against Indy.

I think you are getting caught up in rankings and losing sight of the context. I look at it this way. Rivers, Watson, Luck, Rodgers, Cousins, Roeth all had very average games against us and the shitbags we lost too played well. I thought we did job on Mahomes for a while until we went to a freaking zone D.

Keep in mind I don't give a rats ass about yards and QB rating. It's 3rd down conversations and comp %.

Those ranking are based on statistical analysis that is FAR deeper than yards, points, or QB rating.

Are you familiar with guys like Warren Sharp? His analysis takes your context into account, for example.

Good luck limiting the big plays. ;)

Seriously, it seems like the Chiefs have figured out how to generate big plays when the other big plays are taken away. Add in the fact that Mahomes always has his eyes downfield. The dude throws sideways, across his body, and whatever else he needs to do. When plays break down, other QBs scramble for 4. Mahomes hits somebody for 14.

I would agree, the Pats will likely run some draws and I expect them to be successful.

Houston seems to be 100%. He's been a big force down the stretch. 5 of his 9 sacks happened in December. His last game without a sack was Dec 2 against the Raiders. He had 2 sacks last week too.

Given the way you framed this, let me just say this:

I think that's the difference in the game. In week 6, the Patriots ran the ball well. I see that happening again. In week 6, Mahomes made big plays, especially in the 2nd half. I see that happening again.

However, in week 6, there was no interior penetration and Brady complemented the running game with serious surgical precision. The game winning play was the 39 yard pass to Gronk. THAT is what I don't expect to see again. I think the Chiefs come at Brady like rabid dogs and I think they do enough to slow down Brady, leading to a Chiefs win.

Yep- Sharp is good. No question.

I'm not trying to dismiss your points or the empirical data. Pats have faced soft passing offenses and legit ones this season no question and the data support it. With that said Ive been watching football for 40 years and I trust my analysis. I know a shitty pass D from a (like what we had in 2010-2012) good one and we have a good one.

FYI, as far as interesting individual stats - the Chiefs awful defense has one of the highest 3rd down stop rates in the NFL.

Do we know that the defense is still "awful"? It seems like since the Chargers game, it's been a different story there, though still a small sample size. A lot better S and CB play and even the LBs have looked serviceable.

Sorry, I should have put "awful" in quotes. It's a talking point really, not my opinion.

Based on the Raider and Colt games, I do think the run defense is still pretty much awful. The pass defense is MUCH better. Ward is way better than Scandrick and the pass rush seems to be even better than it was.

Better secondary play definitely helps the pass rush.

I definitely agree that getting to Brady is the way to beat us. On our side we need to keep Mahomes in the pocket. He has an Aaron Rodgers like ability to extend the play and make a perfect pass on the run. Him extending the play that extra second or two frees up Hill to sprint across the field and turn on the jets. I’m assuming we will have Hightower and Van Noy setting the edges since Clayborn comes from the Chris Jones school of pass rushing where he heads upfield hard. The only difference is he lets the tackle walk him back into the stands and is a complete liability against any mobile QB. Hopefully Trey Flowers can be disruptive as he’s been on a tear the second half of this contract year.

24th in the NFL according to NFL.com on 3rd down.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorysta...alse&Submit=Go

One thing is clear to me. This is the best realistic shot the Chiefs have had at the Patriots in the postseason.

Aging Brady (yes that matters).
Elite pass rush for the Chiefs.
Best QB in the game for the Chiefs.
Home field advantage.
As healthy as you could realistically hope for.

It doesn't get any better of a situation for you guys. It's all lined up perfectly.

What's interesting is that in the past, it wasn't really pressure that got to Brady with KC. It was that we basically dared him to sit in the pocket forever. We choked off a lot of his short game. Will be harder to do with tighter PI rules and now that NE has a better run game. But there's something to be said for how our D has in the past frustrated Brady not by pressure, but by coverage. I'd say that was true not just for us, but many Rex Ryan defenses.

The thing is, that was predicated on 3 and 4-man fronts. Basically ceding the rush for coverage.

This unit can get pressure from 4-man fronts now.

I stand corrected.

To be clear, I was talking about at home. But it appears they fell to 20th since the last time I looked:

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/sta...conversion-pct

By the way, that NFL.com link, for me, doesn't show 3rd down percentage.

True the pass rush killed us that game. Nate Solder was a turnstile and Hali and Houston were just teeing off on Brady. About as bad a loss as I have ever seen in the BB/Brady era. At least they used it as fuel to another super bowl run.

LDT went out in the middle of the Pats game IIRC

Ah ok. Yea you guys are a MUCH better D at home.

Weird how the link doesn't work.

So the NFL had y'all at 24 and this has you at 20th. NFL had us at 13 and this 16th. Whatever.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/sta...conversion-pct

I just noticed that Team Rankings has a date up at the top, it looks like you can filter by date. By default, it's today's date, so it seems the stats include playoffs whereas the NFL site separates regular season from postseason.

Stands to reason the Chiefs would have improved from 24th to 20th then because the Colts were 0-9 on 3rd down.