Drafting and Developing QBs
Some may remember my earlier thread about DTs and DE/OLBs. This one should be more interesting, due to the QBness of it. I did the same for QBs, using data from PFF to analyse the typical development of a QB as well as the expected return from a draft pick spent on a QB. Here is development:
http://s7.postimage.org/hr4gqwgmz/QBdevelop.png Pretty steady climb through 12 years. Basically all the ridiculous waves on the right are thanks to Favre. Here are snaps per year: http://s7.postimage.org/9999b5v7f/QBsnaps.png I'm a little surprised that rookies take more snaps than any other group. Here is skill (vertical) vs draft position (horizontal). Blue dots are draft picks, the dark green, light green, white, pink, and red lines are the 90th, 75th, 50th, 25th, and 10th percentile respectively. http://s17.postimage.org/3pnqt69hr/QBdraft.png Huh. Drafting a QB late looks about the same as picking up a UDFA. This led me to make another chart. I arbitrarily decided that a QB in the 95th percentile was elite, 85th percentile was good, and 50th percentile was average. I then decided to determine the percent likelihood of drafting a QB in each round that fell into each category. http://s8.postimage.org/ytdvo6jhh/QBdraftpercent.png In case that doesn't make sense, I'll explain: A QB drafted in the first round has a: 17.5% chance of being Elite 37.5% chance of being Good 50% chance of being at least average. Second round: 0% Elite 6.25% Good 37.5% Average Third round: 0% Elite 13.3% Good 53.3% Average Fourth round: 0% Elite 8.3% Good 41.7% Average Fifth round: 0% Elite 0% Good 14.3% Average Sixth Round: 0% Elite 0% Good 50% Average Seventh Round: 3.2% Elite (Tom Brady) 3.2% Good 45.2% Average UDFA 0% Elite 7.7% Good 73.1% Average My conclusion: If you do not draft a QB in the first round, there is no point drafting one at all. Just pick up a UDFA. |
interesting.
hmm. |
Wasn't Brady a 6th rounder?
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That said, pretty damning numbers for the true fan.
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Fascinating.
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The best place/chance to get a franchise Qb is the first round.
Who knew? This is new info that has never been said on CP. Non sarcastic though, great work Magic. Ok with you if I spam this on Twitter to the masses? |
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Probably should show this to some facebookers too.
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Oops, some of the percentages were a bit off. It's fixed now.
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Awesome! Thanks for doing this!
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So Brees (2nd round) is just average to good?
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Skipped and just read this.
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Also not included: Otto Graham Y.A. Tittle Johnny Unitas Bart Starr etc. |
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I'm more concerned about how you get those elite QBs by today's standards. |
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