The decision on Steven Nelson is getting harder.
 

I have been very comfortable with the idea of pretty much dumping out our entire CB personnel this coming offseason and reloading through free agency splashes (Ronald Darby, anyone?) and multiple draft picks.

But listening to Locked On Chiefs this morning, Steven Nelson and Orlando Scandrick are in the entire league's top ten for "passer rating against."

Now, the decision on Scandrick isn't that hard. You float a one year contract to him, he's old, if he takes it that's fine, if not he's old you let him walk etc.

Nelson, however, is peaking right now. I don't know if he's who I want as a Bob Sutton starter on the outside, which seems to require more length and elite talent, but he's a slam dunk elite #3. But he probably knows he's a starter in the NFL for at least 10 teams in this league, so he could be demanding starter money.

And if you let him walk, you better be prepared to spend more for a starting outside corner, and Nelson is the most "known" a quantity as you're going to get.

What do we do about Steven Nelson this coming offseason?

Let him walk and sign Scandrick to a 1 year deal extension. Draft a corner early and continue to develop Tremon Smith.

We’ve made average corners look good in this system and it won’t change.

I don’t know that you pay a lot, but I’d be very interested in keeping him.

I think the thing now is you need versatile corners that have similar skill level and can do everything ok.

That’s nelson

He's played himself into consideration but he's also played himself into a potential 4/$40 million payday. Shit, maybe more.

I don't think you can justify that. What is it that he actually does? He's not big, he's not fast. He's physical but those are the kinds of guys you can coach up. The problem is that we don't have anybody behind him prepared for that kind of role but such is the way of things.

And if i you re-sign him, you lose Fuller after next season. Long-term, I'd much rather have Fuller.

Using that logic leaves you only with one real solution: draft a corner.

You probably can't pay Nelson unless his play regresses to a #3 corner mean. Paying him legit starter money costs you Fuller.

So, you have to draft your starter. With a 1st round pick that will likely be somewhere between 29 and 32.

Yup. And it's gotta be one that can provide average play immediately.

I don't see a real alternative here. You can give Fuller the same contract you'd have to give Nelson and get it signed, IMO. Because Fuller's a year away from FA and playing on a pittance salary next year. Give him that FA deal you could give to Nelson and suddenly he gets a big boy paycheck and he's happy. That's a better use of the resources.

And you have to use heavy draft capital to get the other guy because you can't wait 2-3 (4) years for him to find his form like we have with Nelson. We need credible play immediately there. And you're not gonna get too many vets dying to play here cheap because this offense makes things hard on CBs. You'll never truly stand out.

I won't argue with using a 1 and a 2 on corners. It's aggressive as hell but it increases the odds of one of them working out and if they both do - man you're in great shape. And there's always the fallback of making one of them a safety (which you also need).

I don't think Veach has a lot of wiggle here, to be honest. He needs to put a LOT of draft capital into the CB market.

I know I've said it a million times, but to me it still comes down to production per unit salary cap. Except QB.


I don't think you can overpay for Nelson. I think you can try to push a little extra on a guy here or there, but Nelson is a tough one for me in terms of buying blue sky.

I have no idea what the number is, but I think you offer him a contract for what you think he can produce. I'm not in favor of overpaying.

Thing with paying him is, I think you could get a tier 2 or 3 free agent next year and coach him up and not drop off much, paired with drafting a giy

That's my thought and why I ask what he actually does well? What truly sets him apart from a middle-tier guy.

The only reason you'd pay him is because even a middle-tier guy takes something like $4+ million. Even those guys aren't cheap.

That's why they really really need Ward or Smith to become at least a #3 cornerback. After a year getting used to the speed of the league and in the system, surely 1 of those 2 can be a credible option by the end of next season.

I'm not expecting them to be sound in week 1 - that's not a reasonable expectation. But as the season progresses, they should be better and better and if they're credible by week 15ish, that should be okay.

Where is this notion coming from that Nelson is good? What are we basing it on?

Guy's been phenomenal this year. Even if you don't trust PFF (I don't), the eye test says he's played very well and at last check he was top 10 in the league on QB rating against (PFF has him top 10 as well at this point, IIRC; something like 8th).

It's fair to ask if this is the new normal or if he's just having a good season in a sea of mediocrity, but there's no argument that he's been one of the better corners in football this year from a pure performance standpoint.

Gotta give credit where it's due - he's been a good player this year.

If this is his new standard, I’d try and keep him

But contract years have fooled many a people

+1. Nelson isn't worth the contract he's going to be looking for. Just keep developing cheap draft picks and bargain bin FA's.

Scandrick has been fine but he’s old.

The eye test to me shows a dude that never looks back or locates the ball. He is constantly running through receivers. He is a PI waiting to happen. I have seen multiple hall of fame type qbs pick on him this year.

Not to say he is terrible, but I wouldn’t pay him if he wants a substantial sum.

When you play man coverage, you don’t look back for the ball.

Yes you do, unless you get burnt and have to make up ground like is often the case with our corners.

You're among the large swath of individuals that don't get man coverage right.

Man coverage is hopping on the bull and riding it for as long as you can while you hope the buzzer sounds before you get bucked. There's NOTHING easy about man and no, very very few players are constantly able to get their heads around in man because they're route matching and just reacting every time.

Yes, sometimes in an off man kind of situation you can read a hitch route and drive on it for a pick, sure. But on those downfield routes, you read your WR and you get a hand up 90% of the time.

Man coverage isn't a flashy style, it's isn't aesthetically pleasing and it never will be for physical corners like Nelson and Scandrick. It's about getting out there and disrupting passes by hook or by crook. And on the balls you're talking about (presumably deep balls), rarely do guys get their heads around and make plays on the ball. On other passes - the balls over the middle; crossers and things like that, Nelson does a nice job of playing the ball.

I reiterate, you'll be hard pressed to find a person on this board that's been more critical of Nelson than me. It's kinda become a shtick because it annoys Staylor and that Oregon State fan we have 'round here. I wasn't going to be an easy convert of his because I've never really believed in him and he was hot garbage last season. But he's been genuinely good this year. He may be dogshit from this point forward but there's no argument that he hasn't been one of the better corners in the AFC to this point in the year.

You would think that our corners would learn to quit jumping ship. Name me one DB for te Chiefs that has had an event decent career since leaving the team during Sutton's tenure. Peters, Smith,Gaines, they all had a major drop off. Yeah, they might get a better contract, but if they don't live up to that contract and get cut, are they really gaining anything? Nelson should look at the facts and take what the Chiefs offer.

Every one of those 2nd contracts come down to the first 2, maybe 3 seasons for the middle of the road FAs.

Sure, the top tier guys are usually locked in for 4-5 years, but for everyone else they can be escaped after 2. And I'm absolutely certain the players (or at least their agents) are cognizant of that fact and are just looking for the most they can get in the first 2 years. For those guys, they're largely set for life after those 2 seasons anyway.

Maybe if we're talking a million or so in difference they'd be inclined to stay, but I don't think that's usually the case. I think most of the guys we're losing are guys that are getting quite a bit more up front than we're willing to offer and I don't fault them for that.

Flowers and Carr looked pretty good when they left.


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Was Sutton the DC when they left? That was the qualifier statement but I really don't remember. I am pretty sure he wasn't but could be wrong.

I've said before that I think the floor on re-signing Nelson is 7 per. Honestly, I'd think it'll be higher if he continues playing like he has this season. I'd much rather spend more money on Darby than re-sign Nelson but I don't know if there'd be another CB I'd spend more on. If you can't get Darby, then I think you try to retain Nelson but anything pushing 8 per and higher you have to back out. I'm honestly scared at 7 per because he's been very inconsistent.

I think flowers was. I think the original cb tandem with Sutton was flowers/Smith

I think you have to swallow hard and let him walk.

The "we have plenty of cap space!!!" crowd needs to bust out a calculator and have a sobering conversation regarding FA contracts and who we really want to keep.

Nelson's a nice player but has no standout skills. Meanwhile Ford and Jones absolutely do and those fellas won't be cheap. Fuller has found his form and while Nelson's been better over the course of the season, Fuller's ascension has mapped the defense's overall improvement; he's been better than Nelson over the last 5-6 games, IMO.

Obviously Hill is a consideration as well.

We just can't keep them all and I wouldn't keep Nelson over a single one of those guys. Don't cry for Steven - he gwon get paid. I just don't think the Chiefs are in a position to be the team that pays him. Hell, even if they move on from Houston and Berry I don't think there's a way to sensibly fit him into the teams long-term cap structure at a market figure. If nothing else, they need to remember to bank rollover when able.

There are going to be some very very hard decisions to make and when you see a lunchpail player having his best season in a contract year with no standout skills to speak of and no real upside built into the deal...man, you just gotta cut bait there.

And very much degrading physically.

You’re right. Mac459 texted me the top 30 or so OLB guys. Christ. I think you’re going to let ford walk too. I’m not opposed to tagging him, but there is a very low probability he’d be a chief if I’m making the call.

I’m very much a production per unit salary cap guy. Guys that hit that top tier of contracts are just outrageous. It looks to me like Nelson is going to get fat paid and I’m convinced it needs to be by the NOT chiefs. I think you offer them a reasonable contract but don’t overpay.

Yeah, Ford is gonna get broken off. He's gonna be right there with the upper echelon guys I'd think.

You might get him to do a deal similar to Melvin Ingram and if so, you've gotta do that.

Gotta get it done in-season.

If he sees FA, he's a tag or he's gone.

Here's the thing with the tag - it's just a bad decision generally here, IMO. Either you trust the guy or you don't.

To the "make him prove it" crowd - If you don't trust him to play well next year, don't spend $18 million keeping him here for another year because that's money that can go into keeping Jones and/or Fuller. That's gonna be his tag cost and if you don't think he can go out there and be a premier pass rusher again, you simply don't do that.

And if you DO trust him and think he'll be worth that $18 million and then he plays to that level, you find yourself in a situation where he's gonna cost $22.5 under the cap to keep the following year. Now you're $40 million into him over 2 seasons.

Meanwhile, I think you can keep him at $45 million over the first three.

I've waffled on this one but ultimately I think I trust him. I think I'd go ahead and approach him with 4 yr deal for maybe $65 million and $45 million in the first 3. And if I can't make that work out, then I'd tag/trade him as Crow suggested.

Kicking the can doesn't make sense with him, IMO. Either you think he'll continue to be this kind of player or you don't. And if you don't, the $18 million guaranteed you're going to give him this year is money wasted (and enough to set him for life so the 'get lazy when he gets paid' thing has triggered at that point, no?)

I'd probably sign him, but I don't really fault guys that say don't or that don't want to.

But man, when the dude is healthy, he's as good of a pass rusher as there is. He's just a terror.

Plus with the offense the Chiefs have, they're gonna be in situations where other teams are gonna drop back and throw it 30 plus times a lot. EH, I dunno, tough situatin

I’d offer Ford a contract that’s structured like Watkins. Yeah it’s expensive but it’s really only for 3-4 years.

Gotta keep an eye on that rollover unless you're really just saying "**** it, win it while hes under his rookie deal..."

Maybe I'm being too cautious and not aggressive enough, but I really want this to be a 6-8 year wide open window and the only way to do that is with a lean cap and some rollover when your young guys approach their second contracts.

So with that in mind, total amount likely to be paid means way more to me than structure. Every dollar I save in year 1 is a dollar I can add to the next season cap as a credit.

So I've got a crazy idea on how we could get a corner. It's gonna take some imagination so hear me out. ….

The Jags are imploding from within. Like, Hindenburg just explosion of that locker room. Fighting, crazy shit.

Their star CB is making twitter posts about how they'll miss him when he's gone etc etc. DUde is obviously a bit nuts but he can play. You know, Jalen ramsey?

So, the Chiefs first rounder is probably gonna be at the later part of the first. We've seen what it takes to get a disgruntled CB on a rookie deal with Peters. I'll sweeten the pot and say, "How about my first this year and my 3rd next year to get rid of that headcase and fix your locker room"?

Boom.

Just be aware that dude is going to want to be PAID. And can he co-exist in a locker room that’s got Mahomes as the leader?

Sure, but you're not gonna keep him the long haul anyway. Similar to what the Rams are doing with Peters.

In my scenario, you'd have him for his 4th and 5th year option, you could franchise him a year then when it's time to pay Pat, you let him walk.

Win.

I'm becoming of the mind that lockdown corners are overpaid luxury items. Team defense and pass rush is the way to go.

If you have 11 above average players on your defense - sure, go nuts and splurge on a better CB. But if you have 9 above average players and 2 sub-standard ones, NFL OC's are going to find those 2 and pick them apart. Go ahead and add Ramsey but if you're still rolling guys like Parker out there or when it inevitably costs you draft capital and salary space and weakens other parts of the defense, they're just gonna find those holes. Rasmey's 5th year option as a top 10 pick is gonna be in the $13 million range so let's not act like he's not gonna be plenty expensive even on the 5th year tag.

I just don't see a sufficient ROI w/ these big money CBs.

Sure, but he's essentially your mercenary CB for 2 years.

I understand your concern, but I still think that you have to have stars on D. I also think a reason we feel these lockdown corners are overpaid luxury items is that we don't have very many that are truly lockdown.

Ramsey really is when his head is on straight.

QB
Pass rusher
OT


That’s the top of your list for the first rd. I agree that corners are a luxury, especially if you have a good pass rush. I want a pass rush like we have this year as often as we can.

I still would like us to draft in the lower rounds fast tall wr who cant catch and turn into cbs. With todays wr there needs to be a switch of philosphy.

Agreed. I would extend that assessment to virtually all positions save QB. I would field arguments for tackles and passrush, but passrush can get bent at these prices.

Fact is, nobody at any position except QB affects a material amount of plays to pay for top line talent (or at least top line salary).

It comes back to production per unit salary cap and I just don't see paying market leading dollars at the positions that aren't QB. Not to say I want all rookies and vet minimum contracts out here, but if you look at the top 5 or so at each position there are very few of them that you could objectively say are worth it.

Your OTs are worth paying as well.

Look at what the Cardinals strafing Fisher and Schwartz did to our offense in the 2nd half.

If pass rushers are worth paying, then the guys that slow them down are worth paying as well.

QB
LT
RT
Edge
WR

Obviously a generational talent at other positions like Donald at DT or even someone like Keuchly at MLB could be worth it as well, but Andy's 'shell' concept has never been more accurate than it is today.

Define shell concept

So here's a theory.

Steven Nelson is about to hit free agency in 2019. Chiefs are on the phone, and they're offering 3 years at 8m/year or whatever. Nelson's agent tells him a couple teams will offer him 11m/year.

Nelson is a supremely confident guy but he can't ignore the Marcus Peters situation, can he? Peters' lack of system fit and worse coaching than what he had in Kansas City has probably now cost him tens of millions of dollars on his next contract.

Any chance Nelson looks at that and thinks to himself he could make more money long term by staying a Chief?

Sure he loses about $9m total, comparing a 3 year/$8m per year deal to a 3 year/$11m per year deal another team might offer him.

But!

He'd almost certainly have a shot at a real money contract in 2022, whereas if his play fell off on another team with worse coaching, his big money contract days may be over.

Anybody else think that's a real possibility? I need BossChief in here; this feels like a very BossChief theory.

You're overthinking shit. If he has a chance to make 3 million per more over the next 3 seasons then he'd be an idiot not to do so. This isn't a situation like you or I could get ourselves into. If you make $40k per year now and your boss walks into your office tomorrow and tells you he'd offer you $55k per over the next 3 years on a grant job but you don't have any guarantee to get your current job back and even make $40k per year, you'd still have an idea of your relative worth on the open market given your skill set, you'd still have an idea of the job market health in your area, and you're unlikely to physically deteriorate or get severely injured in a copier accident in that time span. The NFL doesn't offer those luxuries. You know your worth now and you don't even know if you'll be able to play in 3 years, much less the type of performance you'll put out there that will determine your worth. We can't say that Nelson is going to be an 8 per corner and play like an 8 per corner for the next 6 years if he stays in KC. That's different than if I could project you being an office employee capable of producing me $40,000 worth of TPS reports over the next 6 years. There's a difference between a hometown discount and not looking out for yourself.

I think you have to choose between him and Fuller and I’d MUCH rather extend Fuller.

Draft or sign some corners for cheap. You’ve got Smith and Ward developing on the 53 already.

I'm pretty sure Fuller will be resigned but not Nelson.

Nelson has definitly been good this year but he will cost too much for a guy you don't know if he will always give you great play.

Fuller is a guy I trust to be consistently good, not Nelson.