Top-Ten QBs: What to Expect.
Okay, let's assume that we're #1 and we draft Geno. What does Geno end up doing for us?
Recognizing that there's some controversy about whether he's a "normal #1 pick", let's look at the quarterbacks taken in the top 10 in the draft over the past 20 years. I'm not sure whether to include the last class or two since we don't know what we've got yet, but I'll throw them in. I'm putting them in my own order of value, but feel free to rearrange. With some of the new guys, it's hard to place them right now. Having said that, we've got the following gentlemen in our group. 90th percentile Peyton Manning Donovan McNabb Steve McNair 80th percentile Eli Manning Drew Bledsoe Robert Griffin III 70th percentile Philip Rivers Matthew Stafford Matt Ryan Cam Newton 60th percentile Andrew Luck Michael Vick Carson Palmer 50th percentile Kerry Collins Trent Dilfer Alex Smith 40th percentile Sam Bradford Jake Locker Byron Leftwich 30th percentile David Carr Vince Young Tim Couch Ryan Tannehill 20th percentile Mark Sanchez Blaine Gabbert Rick Mirer 10th percentile Joey Harrington Heath Shuler Matt Leinert 0th percentile Akili Smith Jamarcus Russell Ryan Leaf So there's about a 30 percent chance that we'll get a total bust out of the deal, and another 30 percent that we'll get a game manager who is not a toad, but he's not going to carry the team. The other 40 percent looks pretty darn good, and since Geno will go #1, you hope that his odds are a little better than this. What say you, rank and file members? |
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Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. |
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I detect some disagreement. I'm not really sure what to do with Luck at this point. The team has rebounded, but they were only bad for one season. So is he the difference, or were they sucking for Luck? I put RGIII higher primarily because he seems to have energized the fan base more. To be honest, I haven't seen Luck and haven't heard much about him. I figured he'd be one of the more controversial placements. |
What Geno or Barkley or Bray or Wilson can do for KC will be dependent in large part on the GM/HC/OC. All 4 of those guys SHOULD be the best QB in KC since Trent Green.
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No way is McNabb in the 90th percentile...and I would be willing to put Eli in his spot, based soley on his post-season play.
I think Luck can be moved up to 70th percentile, he has pretty much caught up with Cam Newton. I would swap Tannehill and Locker.....maybe. That was my first gut reaction, but neither of them have lit a fire this year. I think Geno is as good as Carson Palmer out of the box, and with the right coaching, he could move up to the 80th or 90th percentile in a few seasons. |
Yeah, don't categorize luck with palmer, bud.
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I don't get your rankings.
Where is Big Ben? Eli Manning has won two super bowls.... but is behind McNabb? |
I want bray at number one.
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One pattern that clearly emerges is that we need to draft a quarterback whose last name starts with M.
I think I rate McNabb higher than some others, but the guy produced. Great arm, great scrambler, got his team to a Super Bowl and at least three more conference championships. He got things done. |
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Do people think that Manning carries the Giants? I think it was pretty clear that McNabb carried the Eagles. |
People, the rankings don't have to be perfect. The 30/30/40 odds are about the same however you personally want to juggle things.
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Hearing the name Matt Barkley makes me want to kick an infant.
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Regardless of the details, we can see that we have about a 40 percent chance of getting a QB that will make the team significantly stronger, a 30 percent chance that he'll be an anchor, and a 30 percent chance that he'll just float along. Overall, I think those are good odds. |
Post season play is all that matters. Eli has two Super Bowl wins, like him or not. Better than McNabb by a ways, and even better than his brother.
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Trent Dilfer won a SB as well, whether he deserved to or not makes little difference. My math may be off, but 4 SB winners from the Top Ten in 20 years = 25%. Odds are better than what we have had, but 75% of SB winners in the last 20 years were not top ten picks. Flame away.
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More SB winners have come from the first round, than the rest of the places to get a QB combined.
First round QB's=58% Rounds 2-7, UDFA's=42% |
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I refuse to participate until the percentiles reflect reality.
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96th percentile Peyton Manning 93rd percentile Donovan McNabb 90th percentile Steve McNair 87th percentile Eli Manning 84th percentile Drew Bledsoe 81st percentile Robert Griffin III 78th percentile Philip Rivers 75th percentile Matthew Stafford 71st percentile Matt Ryan 68th percentile Cam Newton 65th percentile Andrew Luck 62nd percentile Michael Vick 59th percentile Carson Palmer 56th percentile Kerry Collins 53rd percentile Trent Dilfer 50th percentile Alex Smith 46th percentile Sam Bradford 43rd percentile Jake Locker 40th percentile Byron Leftwich 37th percentile David Carr 34th percentile Vince Young 31st percentile Tim Couch 28th percentile Ryan Tannehill 25th percentile Mark Sanchez 21st percentile Blaine Gabbert 18th percentile Rick Mirer 15th percentile Joey Harrington 12th percentile Heath Shuler 9th percentile Matt Leinert 6th percentile Akili Smith 3rd percentile Jamarcus Russell 0th percentile Ryan Leaf |
So you're saying Jamaarcus Russel was better than Ryan Leaf ??
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It's really hard to say how anybody will do at QB next year without knowing who'll be on the field with them. Is Bowe here? Will Baldwin finally progress? Is Breaston playing? Who are the tight ends?
I could see anything from a Peyton Manning rookie year (@ 3750 yards, 25 TDs, 25 INTs) to a Mark Sanchez rookie year (@ 2500 yards, 15 TD, 20 INT). I would not expect Robert Griffin stats from anybody, he's just crazy in terms of completion percentage for a rookie (66% right now) along with his 18/4 TD/INT ratio. Assuming he can play the rest of the year he'll end up with probably 3500 yards, which is rookie Peyton Manning production but with a much, much higher completion percentage and much lower INT%. And that to me is a bit much to expect. Ditto for Andrew Luck's yardage numbers this year (he'll be over 4000 - although his comp % isn't that great). Median, I guess would be something like 3250 yards, 20 TD, 20 INT. Which would be the best QB play we've seen since Trent Green and probably enough to get the team in danger of 8-8, maybe even talking playoffs. |
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NO MATT BARKLEY OR ANY MORE USC QB'S PERIOD!!! THEY SUCK IN THE NFL
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you do realize all the guys in the 50th percintile are better on paper than most of the guys in the 70th percintile.
lol |
Where's jay cutler?
Edit:Not in the top ten, that's where. Sorry. |
Carson Palmer was pretty good pre knee injury.
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