No way. He's a 30 td a year guy. Smith is a bum who cant score in the red zone and in the 3rd and 4th quarter. Mahomes number for career will kill Smith's.

In order for Patrick Mahomes to NOT throw for 4000 yards this year (barring injuries, which wouldn't be his fault) one or a combination of the following things would have to happen:

-His completion percentage does what it probably hasn't done since he first started playing QB: tanks to an abysmal level. Not just below 60... we're talking like barely above 50.

-He throws a ****ing TON of INTs. Like... Trent Green 2001-level numbers of INTs. Or fumbles. Just doesn't take care of the football. Like 25 picks we're talking.

-Somehow, inexplicably, our defense becomes a shutdown force, and Andy Reid follows suit by turning the offensive balance back to the run game, something he's done... well, never.

I just don't think any of those things are very likely to happen. Yeah, his completion percentage might not be as high as we want it. Or his INTs might be too high. But that's not going to be enough to take away from him getting a 4000 yard season, given how much we'll be chucking it, who we'll have for skill weapons, and how often the need will arise for him to save the defense's ass.

I guess I just view the term 'expect' a little differently than some. I personally don't think its reasonable to expect 4000 yards this season....more than any chief in history, more than 99% of any QB in their 1st full season etc,....

I mean, I think he has a decent chance of doing it....but I do not 'expect' it nor will I be disappointed if he has like 3650 yards or something and doesnt break 4k.

to me, his expectations in his 1st full season have to start with being able to read defenses, call audibles, react well to blitzes, control happy feet....throw the ball away... and change plays etc...and go from there. He's had one game in the nfl....

I mean everyone has said he is a work in progress....so my expectations are lower than my hopes. I hope he makes the pro bowl ...I hope we win the division. but expect it? not me.

Didn’t Alex just throw for 4000 yards last year

Maybe Hill, Kelce, Watkins and Hunt are all maimed simultaneously in a freak sawmill accident. They have all had their hands cut off. Just nubs to catch with.

And the Chiefs want to see them through this awful time and we make a go of it with our four main weapons catching with their forearms.

Pat's stat line in this scenario:

59% completion
3,850 yards
20 TD's
8 INT's

another way I would look at it, would be to say that if I set some expectation and it doesnt happen, then I consider that a failure.

I dont think it would be a failure if he doesnt crack 4000 yards...as long as clear progress is being made...that doesnt seem fair in my mind...

yeah...a remarkable season in what....his 13th year? 5th year of being QB here....

It seems like a bunch of people are setting the bar wayyyy too high for this kid....almost like so they can complain about when he doesnt make 4000 yards...

Why not compare alex's 1st full season or 1st game against pat's?

I mean...

This is about where I am. Stud Big arm QB + Weapons + head coach that seems to hate running the ball.

3900 YDs
36 TDs
19 INTs

Just correcting your statement that it would be more than any chief in history

With the current rules favoring offense, the weapons they have on offense and the coaching staff I don’t know that 4000 yards is that crazy

He got to sit for a year and really couldn’t ask to be in a better situation. He needs to produce

LOL, So let's hope he's a shade better than 2,900 yards and 16 TD's to 16 INT's.

Plus it’s not like he’s going to a shit franchise in a bad spot. The chiefs have been double digit winning the last 5 years or so. He’s in a good position.

well unless he breaks 4000 yards and doesnt go over 4041...then yes...him breaking 4k will mean the most of all time of any chief

thats fine but to me 'expectation' has meaning. words have meanings...

If you 'expect' him to get 4000 and he doesn't, then that means he failed?

If he doesnt meet an expectation that means he has failed. Youre telling me if you expect him to get 4000 yards but he has 3600 yards and plays well he has failed?

LOL

If I dont meet my expectations in life, job or family...then to me thats a failure.

Not really but I also don’t really think it’s a huge deal breaking 400 yards these days.

I mean, that’s 250 yards per game average. With the weapons we have an their yards after the catch, paired with a potential shaky defense he’s gonna be throwing it a lot

But in any manner, just like it was with Alex smith it’s not all black and white