I've stayed out of the Nelson talk because I know I would be accused of being a homer.

However, lists like this and the contract that Nelson is going to get just shows you how absolutely terrible CP (and the general fan) is at player evaluation. It's mostly because the TV coverage skews the perception.

"I saw Nelson get burned all the time". Well, of course you did - it's because the TV is only going to show him when the receiver makes the catch. So unless you are studying the ALL-22 every week (or see the games live and actually watch the coverage while not drunk :)), you aren't seeing all the times Nelson shut down his guy or held coverage long enough to help get a sack. Plus, you also need some idea of what the scheme was calling for.

I have felt from day one that Nelson's size is going to limit him to being a slot corner and I still believe that's where he plays best so I don't have a problem with letting him go. I do think that there is no guarantee that the Chiefs will be able to get someone next season that will match his production. I'm hoping the scheme change will help in that regard.

That's great but with the cap and the general shortage of really great players, it's impossible to have outstanding players at all positions. Sometimes, "average" is absolutely okay. Just don't pay average players like outstanding players, which is why Nelson will be playing somewhere else next season.

Exactly.

that's fair. And since I'm arguing with someone who likes the player, I'm cast a bit as 'hating' on Nelson, when all I'm trying to say is he's a #3 corner on a good defense, tops. Which for most teams, is their slot guy, no? He's miscast as an outside CB in one-on-one coverage.

I don't think that is worth $12 a year or whatever. I'm also not handing Smith the job, I just think it's reasonable to project his physical skills along with some improvement in his second season.

I don't think either is a #1 CB, and we need one of those. It's likely we will be unable to afford a guy like that in FA (unless we unload one of the big 3) so we'll probably have to draft one.

That's what player analysis, the draft, and coaching are for.

Or did I miss something?

FAX

I wondered when you'd get around here.

I'm pretty sure it was you and Staylor that I went round and round with for the last several years. I was gonna just call you that damn Oregon State homer but it seemed unprovoked...

But I mean, now that you're here...

Nonsense, NE wins because they have HOF'rs at every position every year. They would never trade a talent like Chandler Jones.

Kinda.

The Paradox of Skill.

As more and more front offices get better and better at player evaluation (and they undeniably have), the line between success and failure gets closer and closer.

And at that point, a lot of it comes down to blind, stupid luck.

You can have the best front office in football but if there are 15 front offices that are all pretty good as well and they're all similarly situated in terms of draft capital (or in our case, situated BETTER), then saying "hey, why don't we just be the best at EVERYTHING" is pretty unrealistic unless you just keep getting dealt 21.

There are enough other good front offices in the league right now that the possibility of us just having great players at every position and not having to find ways to simply make due at a handful of them is...well it's zero. That's not gonna happen. In fact, the rules are set up to prevent it from happening - the league doesn't want it to.

Ultimately, you can think Nelson's pretty good, or you can think he's pretty mediocre. He's not going to be here next season more than likely. Surely we can agree on that?

Of course it's ALL speculation. As is anything we're talking about on a message board in February.

I argued with you over the pick initially because I understood how raw Nelson was and how it was going to take time. It took almost the first season just to wash the Mark Banker stink off of him. After that (the next season), he had a really solid season as the slot corner.

Then he had to learn to play on the outside and struggled. Then this season, it looks like he was starting to learn.

Was a 3rd round pick too high for someone so raw? Probably. Unfortunately, it looks like the Chiefs will have gone through the all the growing pains just for another team to benefit from it.

That argument sounds oddly familiar.

I remember the first game (Jags, maybe?) we played with Wally as HC in 2013. Prime Hali, DJ, EB, Houston, Flowers, and Poe played well in that game (all of those guys were Pro Bowlers that year, by the way). That wasn't the best defense we've ever had, but it was pretty damn good. That level of talent acquisition is no longer feasible? I'd hate to think that's true.

I was expecting someone to counter with the #1 defense idea will never work ... and I know it's highly unlikely. On the other hand, I'd rather shoot for the moon and hit a cloud than waddle around in a puddle of mediocrity while attempting to convince myself that it's the Amirandes swimming pool.

We can do better and we shall. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

FAX

You haven't said anything I disagree with here.

With a true franchise QB you still gotta have a defense, we've seen that. A franchise QB with a good defense= SB champs. See Tom Brady, Manning's Denver run, hell Elway's 2 rings, Marino's lack of a ring, Russell Wilson's ring, etc., etc.

Mahomes has IT. The thing that makes the great ones great. It's more than stats. It's something inside that makes them great in the clutch. However, they can't do it alone. You still need a defense.

None of those guys were drafted by Dorsey. As good as he was at identifying offensive players, the defensive cupboard is pretty freaking bare.

I don't wish to hijack this awesome thread-thing, but I think that was the concept behind acquiring Sammy "Feets" Watkins, Mr. Chris Meck.

I imagine the off-season logic went something like ... "We've seen enough to know that we have a good thing going here with a lot of potential. But, what if we can make it even better? It will be expensive, but if it works, we'll be unstoppable." (something like that, anyhow).

You don't achieve greatness by striving for the mean. There are tons of reasons why teams don't reach their NFL goals (league parity, salary cap, injury, etc.) ... but the main one is they don't take the necessary risks.

I'd love to see Nelson progress (and I think he can). Personally, I think he needs a better off-season, personal trainer. But he's not the kind of player who changes the game in our favor. At least, I haven't seen it. We can do better.

FAX

Incorrect. I also see him celebrating an incomplete pass standing on top of his 2nd pass interference penalty of the game, or his 8th Holding call.