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planetdoc 03-29-2015 05:43 PM

full playmaker scores

The 2014 wide receiver draft class has only a year in the books, but is on track to possibly become the best ever. Ten rookie wide receivers went over 500 yards receiving in their initial season. Three of those went over 1,000. Although the success of these players is incredible, it can hardly be called surprising. Not only did scouts predict a big year for rookie receivers, but Football Outsiders' system for projecting wide receivers -- Playmaker Score -- anticipated that the 2014 class was loaded with wide receivers who were likely to be successful in the pros.

Can the 2015 draft class match its predecessors' accomplishments? According to Playmaker Score, probably not. Although the 2015 class includes some strong prospects and a sprinkling of interesting sleepers, there are also a number of players with bust potential, rated higher by scouts than by Playmaker Score. It adds up to a potentially good, but not great, class of pass-catchers.

What follows is a ranking of the top receiver prospects for 2015 according to our model, including a projection for the average number of regular-season receiving yards that each wide receiver will gain per year over the course of his first five NFL seasons (for a full explanation of how Playmaker Score works, you can find the criteria at the bottom of this article):

1. Amari Cooper, Alabama

Projected yards per first 5 seasons: 643 Scouts, Inc. rank: No. 3 overall Similar historical prospects: Marvin Harrison, A.J. Green

Cooper is currently rated by Mel Kiper and Todd McShay as the best wide receiver prospect in this class, and he hits most of Playmaker's buttons. Cooper had an impressive junior campaign, gaining 1,727 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns. Moreover, there is also nothing about Cooper's situation that gives reason to doubt Playmaker's numbers. Unlike many wide receiver prospects in this year's draft, Cooper did not play in the spread, and he faced some of the toughest college defenses in the country. Historically, Cooper probably best compares to Indianapolis Colts great Marvin Harrison as a prospect; Cooper was not quite as dominant as Harrison was at Syracuse, but the mid-'90s Big East wasn't a match for today's SEC, either.

2. Nelson Agholor, USC

Projected yards per first 5 seasons: 501 Scouts, Inc. rank: No. 37 overall Similar historical prospects: Terry Glenn, Ike Hilliard

Agholor hopes to break USC out of a wide receiver-producing slump that has included first-round busts such as Mike Williams and R. Jay Soward. More recent draft picks Robert Woods and Marqise Lee have had their moments, but haven't yet broken out. Agholor was a reasonably productive receiver at USC, with 1,313 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns.

3. Breshad Perriman, UCF

Projected yards per first 5 seasons: 491 Yards/season Scouts, Inc. rank: No. 45 overall Similar historical prospects: Kenny Britt, Darrell Jackson

The son of former Detroit Lions wideout Brett Perriman was a consistently productive receiver for the UCF Knights during his career, including a stellar junior year despite a huge drop-off at quarterback from Blake Bortles to Justin Holman. Perriman enters the draft as an underclassman, has an impressive 19.5 yards per catch average, and his other Playmaker numbers are solid. He put up 40 times of 4.24 and 4.27 at his pro day on Wednesday.

4. Sammie Coates, Auburn


Projected yards per first 5 seasons: 461 Scouts, Inc. rank: No. 67 overall Similar historical prospects: Demaryius Thomas, Stephen Hill

When Coates was a sophomore, 2.5 percent of Auburn's pass attempts were touchdown passes to Coates. Similarly, Coates dominated his team's passing attack as a junior, gaining 3.16 yards per team attempt. Coates also averaged a superb 21.4 yards per catch and is entering the draft as an underclassman. However, while Coates' rate stats were good, his total stats were not that impressive, with only 741 receiving yards and four touchdowns as a junior. Auburn averaged fewer than 300 passing attempts per year while Coates was on the roster. Indeed, Coates' numbers may simply be a function of an offense where a few deep passes to Coates served as a change-of-pace, rather than a true reflection of Coates' ability as a wide receiver. In that regard, Coates is hauntingly similar to a huge bust that Playmaker Score loved: Stephen Hill. Coates' scouting report is similar; like Hill, Coates is a limited route-runner with inconsistent hands.

5. Jaelen Strong, Arizona State

Projected yards per first 5 seasons: 449
Scouts, Inc. rank: No. 27 overall Similar historical prospects: Michael Crabtree, Chris Chambers

Strong had a nice performance at the scouting combine, running a 4.44 40-yard dash and producing a 42-inch vertical jump at 6-foot-2, 217 pounds, but that only helps his projection a little. His college production was good, but not great, given that the Sun Devils passed the ball a healthy 467 times.

6. Devin Smith, Ohio State

Projected yards per first 5 seasons: 427 Scouts, Inc. rank: No. 25 overall Similar historical prospects: Mike Wallace, Javon Walker

Smith had only 33 receptions as a junior. However, when he caught the ball, he made big plays, averaging 20.7 yards per reception and scoring a touchdown on more than a third of his passes.

7. Tyler Lockett, Kansas State

Projected yards per first 5 seasons: 423 Scouts, Inc. rank: No. 65 overall Similar historical prospects: Roddy White, Lee Evans

Playmaker Score usually dislikes wide receivers who enter the NFL Draft as seniors, but it makes an exception for Lockett, who was absolutely dominant as a junior. Lockett somehow managed to post 1,264 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns that year, even though Kansas State only passed 314 times.

8. Kevin White, West Virginia

Projected yards per first 5 seasons: 406 Scouts, Inc. rank: No. 4 overall Similar historical prospects: Michael Floyd, Donnie Avery

Kevin White AP Photo/Julio Cortez Despite his lofty stock, the Playmaker Score is not in love with Kevin White's production. The case against White begins with the fact that he is entering the NFL as a senior, rather than as an underclassman. White's total numbers for his senior year were good: he had 1,447 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. However, the numbers for senior wide receivers who succeed at the NFL level are often much better than White's, especially considering that the West Virginia Mountaineers threw the ball 534 times. Kendall Wright, for example, entered the draft as a senior, but had more impressive totals: 1,663 receiving yards in only 424 team passing attempts. Jordan Matthews, who entered last year's draft as a senior, had similar total yards numbers (1,477), but did so in fewer team passing attempts (376). White may have impressed with a 4.35 second 40-yard dash at the combine, but all else being equal, the combine 40 isn't a consistent predictor of future NFL success for receivers.

9. DeVante Parker, Louisville

Projected yards per first 5 seasons: 404 Scouts, Inc. rank: No. 12 overall Similar historical prospects: Bryant Johnson, Peter Warrick

At least Kevin White fans can argue that White played through his senior year because of his two years at junior college. Parker doesn't even have that excuse. Parker has been playing college football for a full four years, and he has never topped 1,000 yards receiving. It's not as if he had a weak supporting cast either: as a junior he had the benefit of catching passes from first-round pick Teddy Bridgewater at his pre-NFL peak. A future starting NFL wide receiver should have put up video game-like numbers in these conditions, but Parker produced only 885 yards. Parker put up some nice per-game numbers as a senior after returning from an early injury, but if Parker had the talent level of a Julio Jones, he would already be in the NFL.

planetdoc 03-29-2015 05:43 PM

10. Stefon Diggs, Maryland

Projected yards per first 5 seasons: 403 Scouts, Inc. rank: No. 87 overall Similar historical prospects: Antonio Brown, Az-Zahir Hakim

Playmaker's 2015 sleeper favorite was a five-star recruit out of high school and had a great freshman season in 2012, catching 54 passes for 848 yards and six touchdowns while also rushing for 114 yards on 20 attempts. These numbers are more impressive in context, as Maryland only attempted 304 passes that year and Diggs was catching passes from a trio of freshman quarterbacks. Diggs is only regarded as a mid-to-late round prospect by conventional wisdom because his sophomore and junior years were marred by injury and inconsistency. It's true that these injury concerns could return to haunt Diggs' professional career, but at the low price of a mid-to-late round pick, the upside that Diggs teased as a freshman is well worth the gamble.

11. Devin Funchess, Michigan


Projected yards per first 5 seasons: 402 Scouts, Inc. rank: No. 35 overall Similar historical prospects: Brian Hartline, Greg Little

Funchess drops lower on this list because of his low touchdown rate; he has never scored more than six touchdowns in a single season. Since 2000, only three junior wide receivers have been drafted in the top 100 picks despite never topping 750 yards or six touchdowns in a college season: Hartline, Little, and Yamon Figurs.

12. Phillip Dorsett, Miami (FL)

Projected yards per first 5 seasons: 391 yards/season Scouts, Inc. rank: No. 46 overall Similar historical prospects: Mark Clayton, James Jones

The same problems that affect Parker's projection plague Dorsett's as well. Like Parker, Dorsett is entering the draft as a senior and lacks a year of the extremely good production that is typical of the senior wide receivers who go on to succeed in the NFL.

13. Dorial Green-Beckham, Missouri/Oklahoma


Projected yards per first 5 seasons: 373
Scouts, Inc. rank: No. 31 overall Similar historical prospects: Jonathan Baldwin, Yatil Green

Playmaker Score sometimes has trouble with players like Green-Beckham who have had limited college action, and thus are less likely to produce a sample size sufficiently meaningful to forecast their futures. However, Green-Beckham was not particularly impressive in either of his two seasons of college football. During his best season, his sophomore year, Green-Beckham had only 883 receiving yards, even though the Missouri Tigers passed a healthy 414 times. Green-Beckham was not even the Tigers' No. 1 receiver: his teammate L'Damian Washington edged him out with 893 receiving yards. In contrast to Green-Beckham's high draft grade this year, Washington went undrafted in 2014, and has been since kicking around various practice squads. Granted, Washington didn't run a 4.49 40-yard dash at 6-5, 237 pounds, but the point is that Green-Beckham's lack of elite production is a red flag in our model.

Playmaker Score is based on a statistical analysis of all of the Division I wide receivers drafted in the years 1996-2012, and measures the following:

• The wide receiver's projected draft position. These projections use the rankings from ESPN's Scouts, Inc.;

• The wide receiver prospect's best or "peak" season for receiving yards per team attempt (i.e. a wide receiver with 1,000 receiving yards whose team passed 400 times would score a "2.50"); The wide receiver prospect's peak season for receiving touchdowns per team attempt;

• The difference between the prospect's peak season for receiving touchdowns per team and the prospect's most recent season for receiving touchdowns per team attempt (this factor is simply "0" for a player whose peak season was his most recent season);

• The wide receiver's vertical jump from pre-draft workouts; A variable that rewards players who enter the draft as underclassmen and punishes those who exhaust their college eligibility; The wide receiver's college career yards per reception, and;

• The wide receiver's rushing attempts per game during their peak season for receiving yards per team attempt.

kccrow 03-29-2015 06:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saccopoo (Post 11408021)
Tre McBride.

I'm not shitting you. The best guy in this draft for this system. I'd pull the trigger on him in the second round.

I began mocking this kid in like the 6th round as a sleeper back as early as at least October. You guys know I'm high on this guy. He's not much of a sleeper anymore given everyone seems to know about the kid and he's risen from a late round at best type to a 3rd rounder on many boards. He's got some skills and could be a very good pro.

O.city 03-29-2015 07:33 PM

I worry with Devin smith thag he never becomes more than a fly runner

planetdoc 03-30-2015 08:01 PM

The draft is so deep at WR that some of the lower round guys would probably be better off if they were switched to CB.

Sammie Coates is a great example. He is 6'1, and at 210 lbs he ran a 4.43 forty. He has everything you could want in a WR excep hands. He should have been a cb.

Urc Burry 03-30-2015 08:16 PM

Here's Nick Jacobs list of wr's he sees as fits

http://bit.ly/1EqF0sE

Tribal Warfare 03-31-2015 12:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Urc Burry (Post 11411291)
Here's Nick Jacobs list of wr's he sees as fits

http://bit.ly/1EqF0sE

everything indicates KC is very interested in Justin Hardy

The Franchise 04-01-2015 10:44 AM

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Miami WR Phillip Dorsett ran two 40 times of 4.27 and 4.24 at miami&#39;s Pro Day this am. Sudden, explosive, under ctrl and caught everything</p>&mdash; Todd McShay (@McShay13) <a href="https://twitter.com/McShay13/status/583307650659692545">April 1, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

BigChiefFan 04-01-2015 11:43 AM

I'm so sick of never having but one WR worth a shit. We could have the Great Wall of China at Center and if you have you're main receiver double teamed with no one on the other side to throw to, what's the point? In a deep WR class, let's get the cream of the crop and select one of the best WRs in collegiate football that translates to eventually becoming a number 1 WR...Jaelen Strong. Then we have our number one and two cemented for years to come and we can move on. Until we get an upper-echelon WR, one-two punch in a passing league, it's all for not. Bite the bullet this year and then we can move on.

KevB 04-01-2015 04:28 PM

As reported earlier, Dorsett blistered in the 40 and improved his already fast time from the Combine. Afterward, Dorsett was nothing short of sensational during position drills. He ran crisp routes, caught everything thrown in his direction and most importantly, practiced to his 40 time. People who've been attending Hurricane pro days for more than a decade told me Dorsett's performance today was the best they've ever witnessed at a Miami pro day.
Read more at http://walterfootball.com/proday.php...Z51E0QBtoBl.99

ToxSocks 04-01-2015 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dicky McElephant (Post 11413679)
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Miami WR Phillip Dorsett ran two 40 times of 4.27 and 4.24 at miami's Pro Day this am. Sudden, explosive, under ctrl and caught everything</p>&mdash; Todd McShay (@McShay13) <a href="https://twitter.com/McShay13/status/583307650659692545">April 1, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Yes please.

planetdoc 04-01-2015 05:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigChiefFan (Post 11413783)
let's get the cream of the crop and select one of the best WRs in collegiate football that translates to eventually becoming a number 1 WR...Jaelen Strong.

I dont think he is a fit for this offense. He doesnt get immediate seperation, he doesnt catch with his hands, and he doesnt run crisp routes.

He is a younger Bowe, and I dont think that is a good fit for this offense.

Tribal Warfare 04-01-2015 08:50 PM

It'll be Lockett, he's publicly stated he wants to play for the Chiefs.

Urc Burry 04-01-2015 08:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tribal Warfare (Post 11414630)
It'll be Lockett, he's publicly stated he wants to play for the Chiefs.

I hope so. I like a lot of people have my questions whether he can be a receiver on the outside, but I have no doubt about his skillset. He gets so much seperation and has a good head on his shoulders. Would love for him to be a chief.

Nightfyre 04-01-2015 09:11 PM

This playmaker score thing doesn't look like it provides remotely useful analysis to me. Plus I have no idea how one would use statistics to assess players based on some combination of combine results and historical statistical production. It doesn't account for the circumstances that must come together to result in production. For example, scheme fit at both levels would seem to provide a huge impact.

KevB 04-01-2015 09:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightfyre (Post 11414651)
This playmaker score thing doesn't look like it provides remotely useful analysis to me. Plus I have no idea how one would use statistics to assess players based on some combination of combine results and historical statistical production. It doesn't account for the circumstances that must come together to result in production. For example, scheme fit at both levels would seem to provide a huge impact.

Scheme and QB

O.city 04-02-2015 07:24 AM

Nelson agholor or Devin smith in the 2nd round, I'm fully locked and loaded for that now.

BigChiefFan 04-02-2015 08:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by planetdoc (Post 11414415)
I dont think he is a fit for this offense. He doesnt get immediate seperation, he doesnt catch with his hands, and he doesnt run crisp routes.

He is a younger Bowe, and I dont think that is a good fit for this offense.

I've seen some comparisions to him and DeMaryius Thomas. Would you consider Thomas a fit? :hmmm: We will need a possession receiver, who has the ability for YAC. We need to face facts, that Smith won't be heaving it down the field several times a game to utilize foot races between a smaller, faster guy. At 6'2", 4.4 speed, with sure hands, who has had great production at the collegiate level, I consider it a no-brainer. The Dorsett's and Lockett's of the world, look to be slot guys, we need every down players in the first round. I'm down with also getting a slot receiver, but I don't find taking one in the first round as the best utilization of the pick and I believe we already have the slot receiver in Wilson. Just my two cents.

staylor26 04-02-2015 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigChiefFan (Post 11414900)
I've seen some comparisions to him and DeMaryius Thomas. Would you consider Thomas a fit? :hmmm: We will need a possession receiver, who has the ability for YAC. We need to face facts, that Smith won't be heaving it down the field several times a game to utilize foot races between a smaller, faster guy. At 6'2", 4.4 speed, with sure hands, who has had great production at the collegiate level, I consider it a no-brainer. The Dorsett's and Lockett's of the world, look to be slot guys, we need every down players in the first round. I'm down with also getting a slot receiver, but I don't find taking one in the first round as the best utilization of the pick and I believe we already have the slot receiver in Wilson. Just my two cents.

Dorsett can play on the outside and isn't quite the one-dimensional deep threat people think he is. He would be a fantastic pick in the 2nd. As for Strong, I agree with you on that. The same people that would've loved to keep Bowe at a good price across from Maclin don't think we can use a guy like Strong. Makes no sense.

O.city 04-02-2015 09:45 AM

You need an x wr to run all the under routes and goes, etc.

Agholor or Devin smith

The Franchise 04-02-2015 09:46 AM

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>RT <a href="https://twitter.com/ODonnellFox13">@ODonnellFox13</a>: Chip Kelly in Tampa to workout USC and former Berkeley Prep WR Nelson Agholor. Projected 2nd round pick.</p>&mdash; Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) <a href="https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/583655387561197568">April 2, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

**** you, Chip.

BossChief 04-02-2015 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tribal Warfare (Post 11414630)
It'll be Lockett, he's publicly stated he wants to play for the Chiefs.

Insignificant.

If they feel he's the best guy in the third, pick him.

Tribal Warfare 04-02-2015 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BossChief (Post 11415114)
Insignificant.

If they feel he's the best guy in the third, pick him.

Being Kevin Lockett's kid too will spur some nepotism within the Hunts too. If a kid wants to work hard for you and isn't looking for a payday then you have to factor that in.

royalschiefs 04-02-2015 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tribal Warfare (Post 11415124)
Being Kevin Lockett's kid too will spur some nepotism within the Hunts too. If a kid wants to work hard for you and isn't looking for a payday then you have to factor that in.

I agree.

Also Curry Sexton (who is one of Lockett's best friends) is the nephew of John Dorsey, funnily enough.

90% sure Lockett will be a Chief next season.

jonzie04 04-02-2015 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by royalschiefs (Post 11415194)
I agree.

Also Curry Sexton (who is one of Lockett's best friends) is the nephew of John Dorsey, funnily enough.

90% sure Lockett will be a Chief next season.

90% sure? this isn't madden where you can save the game and go back and redraft. there are 31 other teams we will have to compete with to get him.

royalschiefs 04-02-2015 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonzie04 (Post 11415497)
90% sure? this isn't madden where you can save the game and go back and redraft. there are 31 other teams we will have to compete with to get him.

yeah 90% is probably a bit too high...

maybe 60% :D

saphojunkie 04-02-2015 02:31 PM

Nelson Agholor or Phillip Dorsett. Personally, I like Agholor, given his open field ability and history as a RB.

But Dorsett is a hell of a route runner, and either would be great.

Also, drafting either of these guys doesn't preclude us from traking Lockett.

royalschiefs 04-02-2015 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saphojunkie (Post 11415767)
Nelson Agholor or Phillip Dorsett. Personally, I like Agholor, given his open field ability and history as a RB.

But Dorsett is a hell of a route runner, and either would be great.

Also, drafting either of these guys doesn't preclude us from traking Lockett.

Charles+Maclin+DAT+Dorsett/Agholor+Lockett all on the field at the same time...

:rockon:

The Franchise 04-02-2015 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 11415013)
You need an x wr to run all the under routes and goes, etc.

Agholor or Devin smith

I would have no problem going with either of those 2 in the 2nd and then Lockett in the 3rd.

Chiefnj2 04-02-2015 02:48 PM

KC might actually want to draft a receiver with some height.

royalschiefs 04-02-2015 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2 (Post 11415809)
KC might actually want to draft a receiver with some height.

nfl.com/draft/2015/profiles/jordan-taylor?id=2552416

planetdoc 04-02-2015 07:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2 (Post 11415809)
KC might actually want to draft a receiver with some height.

thinking the same thing recently.
Maclin, DAT, wilson, and maclin are all under 6' receivers.

Da'Rick rodgers is the only non broke dick taller than 6'.

RunKC 04-02-2015 08:41 PM

Anyone else a little worried about Agholor due to the mediocrity of USC past receivers?

I'm thinking we will get a big target early and then a guy who can be like DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. I think Tyler Lockett and Phillip Dorsett fit that perfectly if we go that route early.
Rashad Greene or Jameson Crowder would be nice mid round slot guys as well.

smith11 04-03-2015 12:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by planetdoc (Post 11416246)
thinking the same thing recently.
Maclin, DAT, wilson, and maclin are all under 6' receivers.

Da'Rick rodgers is the only non broke dick taller than 6'.

vince mayle is 6-2 and has size to run slants like bowe did

Saccopoo 04-03-2015 01:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smith11 (Post 11416696)
vince mayle is 6-2 and has size to run slants like bowe did

http://img2.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb2...-Thumbs-Up.gif

OldSchool 04-03-2015 04:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smith11 (Post 11416696)
vince mayle is 6-2 and has size to run slants like bowe did

He's a bit slow though. Might as well use Hemingway for that.

Saccopoo 04-03-2015 08:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldSchool (Post 11417607)
He's a bit slow though. Might as well use Hemingway for that.

2/10's of a second faster than Jarvis Landry was at the combine while having to change his starting sprint stance because of a broken thumb.

The difference between Mayle and Hemingway is that Mayle gets off the line and out of his breaks quickly. Hemingway, for whatever reason (and it's not due to athleticism or speed that he has, because he does have both) doesn't have that initial burst on the field. Or at least hasn't shown it. He's been a long strider that needs build up speed, which is interesting as his three cone and shuttle times were excellent. (Just goes to show you that numbers aren't necessarily the end all, be all of judging a player.)

Mayle plays quick for a guy his size and shows good burst. He's also been insanely productive while having to deal with double teams for the entire 2014 season. They couldn't really hide him or protect him at Washington State.

planetdoc 04-03-2015 09:05 PM

interestingly enough the chiefs are going to work out a TE (Will Tye) who is as tall as Vince Mayle, and is much faster while weighing 40lbs more.

the chiefs have done a good job acquiring speed at the skill positions
Maclin 4.43 forty
Wilson 4.43
DAT 4.39 proday
Charles 4.38
Davis 4.37
Kelce 4.61 (similar weight/speed as Will Tye)
Da'Rick Rodgers 4.52

Speed (specifically immediate speed) at the skill position makes a lot of sense for the chiefs. It gets the ball out of Alex Smith's hands quickly (saving him from sacks) while making the offensive line look better because they dont have to pass protect as long.

milkman 04-04-2015 05:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by planetdoc (Post 11417888)
interestingly enough the chiefs are going to work out a TE (Will Tye) who is as tall as Vince Mayle, and is much faster while weighing 40lbs more.

the chiefs have done a good job acquiring speed at the skill positions
Maclin 4.43 forty
Wilson 4.43
DAT 4.39 proday
Charles 4.38
Davis 4.37
Kelce 4.61 (similar weight/speed as Will Tye)
Da'Rick Rodgers 4.52

Speed (specifically immediate speed) at the skill position makes a lot of sense for the chiefs. It gets the ball out of Alex Smith's hands quickly (saving him from sacks) while making the offensive line look better because they dont have to pass protect as long.

Immediate speed?

Saccopoo 04-04-2015 08:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by milkman (Post 11418056)
Immediate speed?

Fast guys I assume.

The problem with the 40 time is that it doesn't necessarily translate to field, game day speed - especially at the skill positions, where you rarely get an opportunity to just burst on down the field in a straight line untouched.

There's a reason that teams pay attention to the 3 Cone and Shuttle times as well as watch the guys on tape in pads.

As an example, the TE that planetdoc mentioned, Will Tye, while possessing an incredible 40 time, does not have the stats to necessarily back up his time 40 speed and athleticism that one would initially assume goes with that raw speed. Averaged about 40 catches for 500 yards and 4.5 TD's while at Stony Brook against Stony Brook level competition. And he could not get onto the field at Florida State in his first two years in college football. (One reception for 7 yards in two years. That's it.)

Then you have the case of Jarvis Landry, who, at 5'11" and 190 lb., runs an incredibly slow 4.8 40 at the combine but has a terrific rookie year last year for the Dolphins catching 84 passes for 758 yards and 5 TDs.

planetdoc 04-04-2015 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by milkman (Post 11418056)
Immediate speed?

I agree with your point that 40 time isn't indicative of 'immediate speed.' I bet their 10yrd splits are also pretty fast, and I think most would agree that DAT, Wilson, Maclin, and Charles are quick twitch guys.

milkman 04-04-2015 11:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by planetdoc (Post 11418193)
I agree with your point that 40 time isn't indicative of 'immediate speed.' I bet their 10yrd splits are also pretty fast, and I think most would agree that DAT, Wilson, Maclin, and Charles are quick twitch guys.

So, I think what you are referencing is quickness and agility, combined with burst, to get into the routes cleanly.

kcbubb 04-05-2015 07:49 AM

http://sports.yahoo.com/video/mike-m...224800292.html

Good video. Sorry if repost.

gonefishin53 04-05-2015 01:30 PM

Tyler Lockett's NFL.com draft profile and workout numbers are very close to Desean Jackson's NFL.com draft profile and workout numbers. Lockett's route running and hand use vs press coverage make him as likely as any prospect to be a solid contributor as a rookie. That will elevate his draft stock in NFL draft rooms more than it will on the media draft boards. If the Chiefs want Lockett, they will have to get him at pick #49 (barring trades) because he will not be available at pick #80. The Eagles drafted Desean Jackson at pick #49.

Bowser 04-05-2015 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcbubb (Post 11419872)

I really don't think we're taking a receiver in the first (that video is proof that there is depth at the position in this draft), but man if one of those top four guys could find a way to slide to 18....

buddha 04-05-2015 04:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bowser (Post 11420280)
I really don't think we're taking a receiver in the first (that video is proof that there is depth at the position in this draft), but man if one of those top four guys could find a way to slide to 18....

You take him, IMO. We have been so WR poor for so long, I want a full stable of impact guys as quickly as possible.

Bowser 04-05-2015 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by buddha (Post 11420422)
You take him, IMO. We have been so WR poor for so long, I want a full stable of impact guys as quickly as possible.

I'm with you 100%, I just don't think they'll do it. I think they're looking at the Agholor-Dorsett-Lockett-Hardy types in the second and beyond.

Saccopoo 04-05-2015 06:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bowser (Post 11420459)
I'm with you 100%, I just don't think they'll do it. I think they're looking at the Agholor-Dorsett-Lockett-Hardy types in the second and beyond.

A combination of a Lockett type in the second and a Mayle type in the fourth would be ideal.

Bowser 04-05-2015 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saccopoo (Post 11420537)
A combination of a Lockett type in the second and a Mayle type in the fourth would be ideal.

1) Kevin Johnson - CB
2) Tyler Lockett - WR
3) Stephone Anthony - ILB
3) Josue Matias - OG
4) Vince Mayle - WR
5) Nick O'Leary - TE


I'd take that in a damned heartbeat (threw the O'Leary in the fifth in as fluff, but I'm sure some team will reach for him earlier...)

planetdoc 04-05-2015 07:28 PM

kenny bell is a pretty good all around wr
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profil...ell?id=2552421

KevB 04-05-2015 09:52 PM

There were 5 WR's taken in the 1st last year, another 7 in the 2nd round. 3 more in the 3rd.

If this year's draft is similar, that means Lockett/Dorsett/Hardy/McBride grouping may last into the 3rd, but it would be a roll of the dice to wait that long for a WR.

On the other hand, with so many receivers taken early in last year's draft, perhaps the demand for receivers isn't quite as high. I'd love to be able to go with two of MLB/CB/OL in the first two rounds, as those positions aren't as deep as WR. But we've got to upgrade the WR corps.

kcbubb 04-05-2015 10:27 PM

Miami pro day article & video. Dorsett's change of direction and separation ability is unreal.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...in-425-seconds

kccrow 04-05-2015 10:29 PM

15 receivers in the first three rounds with 12 in the first 2?

You're looking at likely:

1. Cooper
2. White
3. Parker
4. Strong
5. Green-Beckham
6. Perriman
7. Agholor
8. Smith
9. Greene
10. Lockett
11. Dorsett
12. McBride
13. Coates
14. Hardy
15. Lippett

At best you might have McBride, Hardy, Lippett grouping available in the 3rd, maybe Coates (I think he's being WAY overrated on draft sites).

You'd have to bank on your statement that maybe demand won't be quite as high and some slip through.

My thought is that the Chiefs need to grab one in the 2nd at least if they are getting one of the top 15 and also fits their offense.

I'd be happy with Chris Conley or Kenny Bell who are slated as 4th rounders at this point, although I think Conley goes before the end of the 3rd, but then the bottom drops out to where I only value a few late guys.

kcbubb 04-05-2015 10:41 PM

Nice article by eagles site with 3 videos on Dorsett. Actually mentioned chiefs as good fit for him in 2nd video.

http://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/ne...6-12ed77e58f29

KevB 04-05-2015 11:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kccrow (Post 11420851)
15 receivers in the first three rounds with 12 in the first 2?

You're looking at likely:

1. Cooper
2. White
3. Parker
4. Strong
5. Green-Beckham
6. Perriman
7. Agholor
8. Smith
9. Greene
10. Lockett
11. Dorsett
12. McBride
13. Coates
14. Hardy
15. Lippett

At best you might have McBride, Hardy, Lippett grouping available in the 3rd, maybe Coates (I think he's being WAY overrated on draft sites).

You'd have to bank on your statement that maybe demand won't be quite as high and some slip through.

My thought is that the Chiefs need to grab one in the 2nd at least if they are getting one of the top 15 and also fits their offense.

I'd be happy with Chris Conley or Kenny Bell who are slated as 4th rounders at this point, although I think Conley goes before the end of the 3rd, but then the bottom drops out to where I only value a few late guys.

I generally agree. I think Funchess fits in there somewhere --- someone will decide they can create favorable matchups with him. There's bound to be another receiver or two that sneaks in there earlier than we expect. Conley, Waller, Devante Davis....someone like that. But I think the top 12 are gone before our first 3rd rounder, and anyone after that probably can't be expected to have an impact in their rookie year.

KevB 04-05-2015 11:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcbubb (Post 11420857)
Nice article by eagles site with 3 videos on Dorsett. Actually mentioned chiefs as good fit for him in 2nd video.

http://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/ne...6-12ed77e58f29

I don't think there's any way he gets to us in the 2nd. Too many WR needy teams at the top of the 2nd that will be enchanted with his speed. Raiders, Jets, Bears, Browns, 9ers, Dolphins, Vikings could all pull the trigger on him. Paul Richardson came out of nowhere to be taken early in the 2nd last year, primarily based on his speed.

Direckshun 04-06-2015 02:10 AM

Dorsett ran a 4.2.

The Franchise 04-06-2015 09:43 AM

2nd round: Algohor, Dorsett or Devin Smith

3rd-5th round: Lockett or Hardy

OldSchool 04-06-2015 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Direckshun (Post 11420914)
Dorsett ran a 4.2.

His 4.2 I can believe a lot more than Perriman's. Dorsett actually looks that fast.

RunKC 04-06-2015 09:57 AM

Devin Smith or Phillip Dorsett?

I think I like Dorsett more. He explodes off the line quicker and seems to be better in the crossing routes

Bowser 04-06-2015 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dicky McElephant (Post 11421093)
2nd round: Algohor, Dorsett or Devin Smith

3rd-5th round: Lockett or Hardy

I'd take it, but I don' think Lockett for one is making it out of the second. His speed and route running will get him snatched up.

Agholor intrigues me. All those guys do. Agholor/Lockett/Dorsett/Hardy would all make me happy. Devin Smith is the guy I'm not sure about. Love his speed, but is that all his game is, just a fly route guy?

Saccopoo 04-06-2015 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bowser (Post 11421111)
I'd take it, but I don' think Lockett for one is making it out of the second. His speed and route running will get him snatched up.

Agholor intrigues me. All those guys do. Agholor/Lockett/Dorsett/Hardy would all make me happy. Devin Smith is the guy I'm not sure about. Love his speed, but is that all his game is, just a fly route guy?

Actually, that's all Dorsett has been to this point. And his hands are questionable. Has never run anything at Miami other than the fly.

You could get the same guy in Atwan Goodley and Goodley will be a few rounds cheaper.

However, if you are looking for a big play guy that provides a bit of a different type of receiver than Albert Wilson (who is darn near identical to guys like Goodley and Dorsett, so their inclusion to the roster would be somewhat redundant), there's Dres Anderson, who, in 2013, led the NCAA's in 40+ yard plays. Smart kid too. (4x All-Conference academic.)

People have forgotten about him because of the injury, but he was considered a top-100 type guy going into the 2014 season.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Sg4yalKG3Vk" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Direckshun 04-06-2015 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC (Post 11421110)
Devin Smith or Phillip Dorsett?

I think I like Dorsett more. He explodes off the line quicker and seems to be better in the crossing routes

I'd probably take Smith, just because he's still useful in the red zone.

Dorsett is crazy fast, and undersized. We've already got that guy in Thomas and Wilson.

We need more guys who can still challenge in the red zone.

OldSchool 04-06-2015 03:56 PM

People saying that you could get a guy like Dorsett later on are full of it. You can't teach the kind of speed that he has. He could come here and make DAT look normal, that's how fast he is. And his hands are more than good enough; if he had played with a decent college QB, we'd be talking about Dorsett as a sure 1st round pick right now just like people were on Cooks' nuts last year.

BigChiefFan 04-07-2015 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldSchool (Post 10937770)
The more I hear and see of White, the more of it I'm buying. Late 1st to 2nd round pick? I would not mind having the next Larry Fitzgerald on the team.

I doubt he makes it out of the top 5. Many have him ahead of Cooper, myself included.

kcbubb 04-07-2015 09:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldSchool (Post 11421753)
People saying that you could get a guy like Dorsett later on are full of it. You can't teach the kind of speed that he has. He could come here and make DAT look normal, that's how fast he is. And his hands are more than good enough; if he had played with a decent college QB, we'd be talking about Dorsett as a sure 1st round pick right now just like people were on Cooks' nuts last year.

This. His speed is elite. And his speed is functional football speed. He's not just a track guy. He plays super fast.

jonzie04 04-07-2015 11:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigChiefFan (Post 11424070)
I doubt he makes it out of the top 5. Many have him ahead of Cooper, myself included.

when he wrote that in september, white wasn't anywhere near top 5 pick territory.
:)

OldSchool 04-08-2015 09:01 AM

Don't sleep on this kid. Just watching him play reminds me of Jaelen Strong. Granted, Lewis was playing against lesser competition in college but his showing at the Senior Bowl was very encouraging.

Quote:

Central Arkansas WR Dezmin Lewis "could join the likes of Cecil Shorts and Pierre Garcon... and become the next small-school receiver to make his mark in the NFL," wrote NFL Media analyst Charles Davis.
"He had a good showing at the Senior Bowl and is a big-bodied target (6-4, 214 pounds) who can make plays downfield. 2014 draft steal Martavis Bryant is that type of player, too," Davis wrote. Colleague Daniel Jeremiah agrees, calling Lewis a potential "Cinderella" who could surprise in the NFL. "When I watched him on tape, he was so much fun to watch," Jeremiah said. "Look at how long he is. (He) can stride it out and beat you over the top. A little nifty after the catch, too, for such a long, tall receiver." Lewis is a "natural pass catcher," according to TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline.

kccrow 04-08-2015 10:25 AM

Check out Western Oregon (Division II) product Tyrell Williams.

I just drafted this kid with a 6th round compensatory selection for Houston. I was initially going to draft him for New England, but I got great values with Tre McBride and Kenny Bell and didn't see the need to draft a 3rd receiver. New England has worked this kid out.

This is from NFL.com regarding his Pro Day:

Western Oregon wide receiver Tyrell Williams (6-3 1/2, 204) ran the 40 in 4.42 and 4.44 seconds. He had a 39 1/2-inch vertical jump and a 10-foot-7 broad jump. He did the 20-yard short shuttle in 4.11 seconds and the three-cone drill in 6.55 seconds.


<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/O1gvpnXtJpw" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" width="560"></iframe>

Sandy Vagina 04-08-2015 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kccrow (Post 11424930)
Check out Western Oregon (Division II) product Tyrell Williams.

LOVE IT. Someone posted this on another site a couple weeks ago, and it didn't take me long to move him up into my round 5 WR list, lol.

Nice find.. you have a knack for it. :thumb:

OldSchool 04-09-2015 06:28 PM

To whoever says that Dorsett has questionable hands:

Quote:

Miami WR Phillip Dorsett only dropped one pass on 37 catchable targets, according to Pro Football Focus.
Dorsett was targeted 67 times, but only 37 were truly catchable. There is some subjectivity here and in these cases, charters tend to side with the receivers. Regardless, this is an outstanding number for the speedy receiver. It rivals Jarvis Landry's drop rate from last year. Dorsett could be selected in the second round.

Dante84 04-09-2015 11:58 PM

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p><a href="https://twitter.com/TDLockett12">@TDLockett12</a> ��☝�������� <a href="http://t.co/iMk0v3lL0n">pic.twitter.com/iMk0v3lL0n</a></p>&mdash; Dylan Seitz™ (@Dylan_Seitz) <a href="https://twitter.com/Dylan_Seitz/status/586382032860655616">April 10, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Tribal Warfare 04-10-2015 12:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldSchool (Post 11428004)
To whoever says that Dorsett has questionable hands:

Of course during an organized pro day/practice is absolutely different compared to doing it in games consistently.

OldSchool 04-10-2015 03:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tribal Warfare (Post 11428375)
Of course during an organized pro day/practice is absolutely different compared to doing it in games consistently.

That's from game tape, not the Pro Day.

philfree 04-11-2015 10:46 AM

Kiper has 7 WRs going in the first round of latest mock draft with the Chiefs taking Jalen Strong as the 5th WR taken.

KevB 04-11-2015 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philfree (Post 11430641)
Kiper has 7 WRs going in the first round of latest mock draft with the Chiefs taking Jalen Strong as the 5th WR taken.

Seven seems extreme. Teams late in the first round would more likely take the 2nd best corner, 3rd best OT, etc. than the 6th or 7th WR.

OldSchool 04-11-2015 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philfree (Post 11430641)
Kiper has 7 WRs going in the first round of latest mock draft with the Chiefs taking Jalen Strong as the 5th WR taken.

I can see 5, maybe. 4 for sure:

1. White
2. Cooper
3. Parker
4. Strong
5. Perriman

Agholor, DGB, and Dorsett are the ones who can sneak in there, but they'll probably go high in the 2nd.

The Franchise 04-11-2015 03:33 PM

My guess is 4. I think the top 3 plus Strong. Perriman goes at the top of the 2nd.

OldSchool 04-11-2015 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dicky McElephant (Post 11430898)
My guess is 4. I think the top 3 plus Strong. Perriman goes at the top of the 2nd.

How would you compare him to Latimer last year?

smith11 04-12-2015 02:38 AM

is devante parker a fit for the chiefs


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