We will need to limit the quick TD/big plays along with the running game to win. In October we ran well but in the second half gave up a lot of chunk plays. In the end of the day keeping Mahomes off the field is how we win.

If Jones and Ford are just charging up the field every down I would assume we will mix in some draw plays with James White and Burkhead as well as plenty of screen passes (hopefully not Josh’s double fake screen). If the pass rush, especially in the interior of the O-line, is in Brady’s face all day that’s when things fall apart. How is Houston by the way? He looked like his old self against Indy.

I think you are getting caught up in rankings and losing sight of the context. I look at it this way. Rivers, Watson, Luck, Rodgers, Cousins, Roeth all had very average games against us and the shitbags we lost too played well. I thought we did job on Mahomes for a while until we went to a freaking zone D.

Keep in mind I don't give a rats ass about yards and QB rating. It's 3rd down conversations and comp %.

Those ranking are based on statistical analysis that is FAR deeper than yards, points, or QB rating.

Are you familiar with guys like Warren Sharp? His analysis takes your context into account, for example.

Good luck limiting the big plays. ;)

Seriously, it seems like the Chiefs have figured out how to generate big plays when the other big plays are taken away. Add in the fact that Mahomes always has his eyes downfield. The dude throws sideways, across his body, and whatever else he needs to do. When plays break down, other QBs scramble for 4. Mahomes hits somebody for 14.

I would agree, the Pats will likely run some draws and I expect them to be successful.

Houston seems to be 100%. He's been a big force down the stretch. 5 of his 9 sacks happened in December. His last game without a sack was Dec 2 against the Raiders. He had 2 sacks last week too.

Given the way you framed this, let me just say this:

I think that's the difference in the game. In week 6, the Patriots ran the ball well. I see that happening again. In week 6, Mahomes made big plays, especially in the 2nd half. I see that happening again.

However, in week 6, there was no interior penetration and Brady complemented the running game with serious surgical precision. The game winning play was the 39 yard pass to Gronk. THAT is what I don't expect to see again. I think the Chiefs come at Brady like rabid dogs and I think they do enough to slow down Brady, leading to a Chiefs win.

Yep- Sharp is good. No question.

I'm not trying to dismiss your points or the empirical data. Pats have faced soft passing offenses and legit ones this season no question and the data support it. With that said Ive been watching football for 40 years and I trust my analysis. I know a shitty pass D from a (like what we had in 2010-2012) good one and we have a good one.

FYI, as far as interesting individual stats - the Chiefs awful defense has one of the highest 3rd down stop rates in the NFL.

Do we know that the defense is still "awful"? It seems like since the Chargers game, it's been a different story there, though still a small sample size. A lot better S and CB play and even the LBs have looked serviceable.

Sorry, I should have put "awful" in quotes. It's a talking point really, not my opinion.

Based on the Raider and Colt games, I do think the run defense is still pretty much awful. The pass defense is MUCH better. Ward is way better than Scandrick and the pass rush seems to be even better than it was.

Better secondary play definitely helps the pass rush.

I definitely agree that getting to Brady is the way to beat us. On our side we need to keep Mahomes in the pocket. He has an Aaron Rodgers like ability to extend the play and make a perfect pass on the run. Him extending the play that extra second or two frees up Hill to sprint across the field and turn on the jets. I’m assuming we will have Hightower and Van Noy setting the edges since Clayborn comes from the Chris Jones school of pass rushing where he heads upfield hard. The only difference is he lets the tackle walk him back into the stands and is a complete liability against any mobile QB. Hopefully Trey Flowers can be disruptive as he’s been on a tear the second half of this contract year.

24th in the NFL according to NFL.com on 3rd down.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorysta...alse&Submit=Go

One thing is clear to me. This is the best realistic shot the Chiefs have had at the Patriots in the postseason.

Aging Brady (yes that matters).
Elite pass rush for the Chiefs.
Best QB in the game for the Chiefs.
Home field advantage.
As healthy as you could realistically hope for.

It doesn't get any better of a situation for you guys. It's all lined up perfectly.

What's interesting is that in the past, it wasn't really pressure that got to Brady with KC. It was that we basically dared him to sit in the pocket forever. We choked off a lot of his short game. Will be harder to do with tighter PI rules and now that NE has a better run game. But there's something to be said for how our D has in the past frustrated Brady not by pressure, but by coverage. I'd say that was true not just for us, but many Rex Ryan defenses.

The thing is, that was predicated on 3 and 4-man fronts. Basically ceding the rush for coverage.

This unit can get pressure from 4-man fronts now.