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Jewish Rabbi 04-16-2018 07:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 13519703)
is he the real deal? A potential #3 hitter? Why, how could the Jays been so wrong about their evaluations?
He came from the Mariners and he’s most likely Grichuk 2.0. Will mash for periods but strike out way too much as well.

'Hamas' Jenkins 04-16-2018 09:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jewish Rabbi (Post 13519806)
He came from the Mariners and he’s most likely Grichuk 2.0. Will mash for periods but strike out way too much as well.
It depends. If he has the plate discipline he showed in 2016 and 2017, then you can take a 26-28% K rate because he's walking 8-9% of the time. In comparison, Grichuk walked about 6% of the time and struck out 30% of the time.

The difference between a K:BB ratio of 5:1 and 3:1 is pretty big.

BigRedChief 04-16-2018 09:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins (Post 13519881)
It depends. If he has the plate discipline he showed in 2016 and 2017, then you can take a 26-28% K rate because he's walking 8-9% of the time. In comparison, Grichuk walked about 6% of the time and struck out 30% of the time.

The difference between a K:BB ratio of 5:1 and 3:1 is pretty big.
so...... what’s the consensus in all the stats, numbers, blogs that you read. 50/50 chance he’s Grichuk 2.0 or a #3 hitter?

That seems like a very wide range of error on possible predictive performance.

Pasta Little Brioni 04-16-2018 10:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jewish Rabbi (Post 13519258)
Just bench Pham! /PGM
:fire:

Or Jose Martinez! /ramsfan

VAChief 04-17-2018 07:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 13519885)
so...... what’s the consensus in all the stats, numbers, blogs that you read. 50/50 chance he’s Grichuk 2.0 or a #3 hitter?

That seems like a very wide range of error on possible predictive performance.
Unless he changes dramatically he doesn't profile as a #3, but ceiling could be a big middle of the order thumper (4-6). His power has always been there its why he was highly touted at one time. If he continues to thump and strikes out at the rate he will be tough to keep down on the farm. Still in 44 at bats this year he has ONE walk. His batting average is actually lower than his OBP. He is slugging over .900! Should at least be fun to watch to see if he can cut down on that K rate and still rake with that kind of power.

raybec 4 04-17-2018 07:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VAChief (Post 13520066)
Unless he changes dramatically he doesn't profile as a #3, but ceiling could be a big middle of the order thumper (4-6). His power has always been there its why he was highly touted at one time. If he continues to thump and strikes out at the rate he will be tough to keep down on the farm. Still in 44 at bats this year he has ONE walk. His batting average is actually lower than his OBP. He is slugging over .900! Should at least be fun to watch to see if he can cut down on that K rate and still rake with that kind of power.
Batting average is almost always lower than OBP

VAChief 04-17-2018 09:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by raybec 4 (Post 13520102)
Batting average is almost always lower than OBP
My mistake, I meant his OBP is lower than his batting average which is rare.

raybec 4 04-17-2018 09:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VAChief (Post 13520159)
My mistake, I meant his OBP is lower than his batting average which is rare.
Oh. I wasn't trying to be a smartass, I honestly didn't know that.

BigRedChief 04-17-2018 10:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by raybec 4 (Post 13520102)
Batting average is almost always lower than OBP
As all the regulars in here know, I don’t have a deep knowledge of the new stats in baseball however........... l know that slugging .900% is a damn good thing and we need as many of those guys as possible on our MLB team.

VAChief 04-17-2018 01:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 13520247)
As all the regulars in here know, I don’t have a deep knowledge of the new stats in baseball however........... l know that slugging .900% is a damn good thing and we need as many of those guys as possible on our MLB team.
No doubt! Those great 80's clubs were lucky to have anyone slug .450!

Marcellus 04-17-2018 02:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VAChief (Post 13520159)
My mistake, I meant his OBP is lower than his batting average which is rare.
Its so rare because its not possible.

Pasta Little Brioni 04-17-2018 02:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marcellus (Post 13520604)
Its so rare because its not possible.
Actually, that's not true. Sac flies lower your OBP, but don't effect BA. It is possible to have a higher BA than OBP.

Marcellus 04-17-2018 02:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pasta Giant Meatball (Post 13520611)
Actually, that's not true. Sac flies lower your OBP, but don't effect BA. It is possible to have a higher BA than OBP.
Ok I will give you that but over the course of a full season you can say its not realistically possible.

The most at bats where that has actually occurred is 125.

Quote:
For small numbers of at-bats, it is possible (though unlikely) for a player's on-base percentage to be lower than his batting average (H/AB). This happens when a player has almost no walks or times hit by pitch, with a higher number of sacrifice flies (e.g. if a player has 2 hits in 6 at-bats plus a sacrifice fly, his batting average would be .333, but his on-base percentage would be .286). The player who experienced this phenomenon with the most number of at-bats over a full season was Ernie Bowman. In 1963, with over 125 at-bats, Bowman had a batting average of .184 and an on-base percentage of .181
So I stand corrected it IS possible but only under small sample sizes. I mean I guess it IS mathematically possible to do that over a season but its never happened before.

VAChief 04-17-2018 03:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marcellus (Post 13520604)
Its so rare because its not possible.
He’s hitting .432, but OBP is .426.

Only 44 at bats, but he is an example of how it is possible because he rarely takes a walk.

Marcellus 04-17-2018 03:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VAChief (Post 13520702)
He’s hitting .432, but OBP is .426.

Only 44 at bats, but he is an example of how it is possible because he rarely takes a walk.
He is only hitting .432? :eek:

A freaking OBP of .426 is insane even if slightly lower than his avg.

You are using very skewed small sample size numbers that if he could maintain would be insane either way.


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