I'm not too fussed about results, I just want to see some promise from him in his first year. It would honestly be for the best if they finish 8-8, losing a load of close games and then get some really high draft picks to round out the talent for a proper push into the post season in 19

We're obviously going to see a lot of shoot outs, in part because of our defense, in part that's just who Mahomes is as a quarterback, and in part because he has the best collection of skill players on offense in the NFL at his disposal.

I think he's going to throw a lot of picks unfortunately but we'll at least get to feel like he's improving for the following season so there will be an element of hope in it.

4300 yds / 29 TDs / 16 ints

It'll be fun regardless.

I'm going to be a little conservative and say 3600 yards, 24 TDs, and 18 INTs. While most on this board will probably disagree, look at the schedule and note some of the Ds we play. I'm just hoping he plays all 16 games and learns from his mistakes.

That's where I'm at, and I think that's where the team is.

More than 26 TDs and more than 4000 yards.

At the time of his retirement, Favre owned or shared 389 NFL records

He still owns or shares 176 of those

First and only player to win 3 consecutive league MVP awards

Played in two Super Bowls, winning one

First QB to win a playoff game after age 40

His Iron Man streak of consecutive games started by a QB will likely never be broken

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...by_Brett_Favre

My honest appraisal of his floor if the offense stays healthy and doesn’t lose any major parts.

4000 yards passing
400 rushing 5tds
30 td passing
13 int

Huge playoff performances.

My expectation is that Chiefs football will be fun again!

Patrick Mahomes worst year will still be better than Alex Smith's best year.

Guys, don't be afraid to have high expectations.

You have every reason to expect a lot. Everything HE has shown us up to this point warrants those expectations. Everything the Chiefs have said and done warrant those expectations.

If you are wrong in your bold prediction, know that you will be in good company.

4500 yards
30 TDs
14 INts

This is true.

We're about to witness a style of play that has never happened from a Chiefs QB ever.

My post was his floor, IMO.

If everyone stays healthy and focused, he has a chance to get 5000 total yards and 40 tds, possibly more.

We have the best skill position guys in the nfl and Mahomes is a special talent.

I think 4000 yards is attainable. 11-5 30 tds 13 ints


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Better than the Steelers?


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Its really close, IMO.

Hunt = Bell
Hill = brown
Watkins = Bryant
Kelce > Jones

Fair enough.


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Several priorities for me:
1. Don't get injured
2. Don't fumble
3. Don't turn into Alex Smith
4. Last but most IMPORTANT-WIN, WIN, WIN!!!


I have low requirements!

I'd be disappointed if he doesn't get 4000 yds.

We're goign to butt**** the Steelers

We always play them close but I think Mahomes/watkins will get us over the hump.

even getting a wildcard spot would be huge for the kid IMO

i believe the raiders are slight favorites to win the divixsion , so winning the division would be awesome although i dont really expect it

if he does crack 4000 and have around 2:1 td to int ratio, i would probably orgasm

even if we go 8-8 and miss the wildcard, and he 'only' throws for 3500 or so, as long as there is clear progress and he stays healthy.... this will literally be the most excited that I have been for chiefs football in 15 years

Reading through the thread I am surprised that people think Mahomes will not be as good as our previous QB- stat wise- while throwing more Interceptions.

Mahomes will break the Chief's season QB record for TD's and Yards this year- count on it.

Its almost statistically impossible for anyone to throw less INTS than alex did last season. you must realize that was a completely crazy season, not only for him but just in terms of TD to INT ratio probably one of the greatest seasons in the entire NFL...

but life is a trade off...Id rather take some more chances and be aggressive but with that will 100% no question come more ints

Best QB in the division out the gate, best QB in the AFC within another year, best QB in football within another 2 years.

It’s very hard to peg the potential statistics that he puts up this year. I’m not sure we’ve ever seen a first year QB with a surrounding cast that good.

3200 yards passing

18 TDs
7 INTs

Very 'Alex Smith' like numbers

They also have JuJu but I still think the gap between Kelch and Jones is still too big. Also give me Mahomes every second this year over Big Ben.

:rolleyes:

You get a lot of records when you play for 80 years.


And in no way shape or form is favre better than Rodgers. Not in any aspect of quarterbacking.
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I predict 4000 yard, 25 TD and 17INT.
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I can’t believe people think Pat will only throw in the 3,000’s.

Do you have any idea how talented he is? Any idea what weapons he has? Or most of all any idea who our coach is?

Andy is building an Air-Raid offense. We’re in big trouble if you’re only throwing for 3,000 in the air raid.

I'm going to try to give an honest prediction w/o sounding too homerish. But, Andy loves to put the ball in the air. He knew what the limitations were with Alex, and game planned within his strengths. Mahomes physical abilities, combined with the downfield speed of Hill and Watson will spread out defenses and keep the damn safties out of the box. I'm looking for at least a couple deep passes in every game, Kelce having his best year as a Chief, and the running game having it's best YPC since Charles was in his prime.

As far as Mahomes, he's going to make mistakes as a rookie and have just an average TD to INT ratio as a rookie. I'm going to be pessimistic and guess 3800 yards, 26 TD's, and 20 INT's in his first year as a starter. I hope I'm wrong, but I saw a little of it in the Donkey game where he trusted his arm strength a little too much and put the ball in very tight windows. Hopefully an entire offseason will allow the WR's to get used to the velocity of his pass.

yes because anythign short of 4000 is a failure and theres no way he could throw for less in his rookie season

LOL

good to see ol rusty the homer back at it

by the way how many rookie / red shirt QB's have gone over 4000 ?? just out of curiousity

Prove it

Woo. Aim high DeBerg. If it is realistic to think that Mahomes will only get 3200 passing yards with that type of TD/INT ratio, then we wasted a draft pick on him, especially when you consider the talent surrounding him.

Jacoby Bissett got similar stats last year with that Colts dumpster fire.....

Those type of stats will have you drafting in the top 10 year after year.

Chargers are gonna be favored for the division

How many 2nd year QB’s have his arm, coach, and supporting cast, and play in such a pass heavy system?

looks like youre correct

its pretty close, but the chargers are slight favorites, currently:

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/futures/

we aren't even currently predicted to do better than the broncos.

we are predicted to be a middle of the pack team....

I mean we did blow up the defense and we really are going to re design the offense around mahomes...so this shouldnt surprise anyone

i think cam newton in 2011 broke 4000 yards in his 1st full season...

bledsoe did it...but started like 13 games the year before...so i dunno if this counts really

also dan marino in 1984 (he started 10 games in 83 though....)

im not totally sure but my question is genuine

are there any other QB's who have broken 4000 yards in their 1st full season? Any who have started in only 1 game or less?

I just laugh at anything that says the Chiefs aren’t favorites, or at least 2nd.

Two time defending champions of the West and in my opinion they have upgraded on both offense and defense (after the draft for sure) as an overall team. The Andy Reid factor alone should give them the benefit of the doubt with oddsmakers.

It’s whatever though, guess they need to prove it regardless.

yep. we are last currently, by a narrow margin but according to vegas odds even the broncos are favored to win the AFC more than us..

and yes..

I agree we have to prove it. We blew the team up pretty well....so I mean....I'm not completely surprised but then again I am am prepared for some bumps in the road and some growing pains

If there were tough teams in the division then it'd be one thing, but who really believes in the s***** Broncos or Raiders, or even the Chargers who always melt when they have to play the Chiefs?

I trust KC to win the West more than any of those other losers

No way. He's a 30 td a year guy. Smith is a bum who cant score in the red zone and in the 3rd and 4th quarter. Mahomes number for career will kill Smith's.

In order for Patrick Mahomes to NOT throw for 4000 yards this year (barring injuries, which wouldn't be his fault) one or a combination of the following things would have to happen:

-His completion percentage does what it probably hasn't done since he first started playing QB: tanks to an abysmal level. Not just below 60... we're talking like barely above 50.

-He throws a ****ing TON of INTs. Like... Trent Green 2001-level numbers of INTs. Or fumbles. Just doesn't take care of the football. Like 25 picks we're talking.

-Somehow, inexplicably, our defense becomes a shutdown force, and Andy Reid follows suit by turning the offensive balance back to the run game, something he's done... well, never.

I just don't think any of those things are very likely to happen. Yeah, his completion percentage might not be as high as we want it. Or his INTs might be too high. But that's not going to be enough to take away from him getting a 4000 yard season, given how much we'll be chucking it, who we'll have for skill weapons, and how often the need will arise for him to save the defense's ass.

I guess I just view the term 'expect' a little differently than some. I personally don't think its reasonable to expect 4000 yards this season....more than any chief in history, more than 99% of any QB in their 1st full season etc,....

I mean, I think he has a decent chance of doing it....but I do not 'expect' it nor will I be disappointed if he has like 3650 yards or something and doesnt break 4k.

to me, his expectations in his 1st full season have to start with being able to read defenses, call audibles, react well to blitzes, control happy feet....throw the ball away... and change plays etc...and go from there. He's had one game in the nfl....

I mean everyone has said he is a work in progress....so my expectations are lower than my hopes. I hope he makes the pro bowl ...I hope we win the division. but expect it? not me.

Didn’t Alex just throw for 4000 yards last year

Maybe Hill, Kelce, Watkins and Hunt are all maimed simultaneously in a freak sawmill accident. They have all had their hands cut off. Just nubs to catch with.

And the Chiefs want to see them through this awful time and we make a go of it with our four main weapons catching with their forearms.

Pat's stat line in this scenario:

59% completion
3,850 yards
20 TD's
8 INT's

another way I would look at it, would be to say that if I set some expectation and it doesnt happen, then I consider that a failure.

I dont think it would be a failure if he doesnt crack 4000 yards...as long as clear progress is being made...that doesnt seem fair in my mind...

yeah...a remarkable season in what....his 13th year? 5th year of being QB here....

It seems like a bunch of people are setting the bar wayyyy too high for this kid....almost like so they can complain about when he doesnt make 4000 yards...

Why not compare alex's 1st full season or 1st game against pat's?

I mean...

This is about where I am. Stud Big arm QB + Weapons + head coach that seems to hate running the ball.

3900 YDs
36 TDs
19 INTs

Just correcting your statement that it would be more than any chief in history

With the current rules favoring offense, the weapons they have on offense and the coaching staff I don’t know that 4000 yards is that crazy

He got to sit for a year and really couldn’t ask to be in a better situation. He needs to produce

LOL, So let's hope he's a shade better than 2,900 yards and 16 TD's to 16 INT's.

Plus it’s not like he’s going to a shit franchise in a bad spot. The chiefs have been double digit winning the last 5 years or so. He’s in a good position.

well unless he breaks 4000 yards and doesnt go over 4041...then yes...him breaking 4k will mean the most of all time of any chief

thats fine but to me 'expectation' has meaning. words have meanings...

If you 'expect' him to get 4000 and he doesn't, then that means he failed?

If he doesnt meet an expectation that means he has failed. Youre telling me if you expect him to get 4000 yards but he has 3600 yards and plays well he has failed?

LOL

If I dont meet my expectations in life, job or family...then to me thats a failure.

Not really but I also don’t really think it’s a huge deal breaking 400 yards these days.

I mean, that’s 250 yards per game average. With the weapons we have an their yards after the catch, paired with a potential shaky defense he’s gonna be throwing it a lot

But in any manner, just like it was with Alex smith it’s not all black and white

did you expect alex smith to win a playoff game last year?

its the 'not really' that I am speaking to here. If the answer is 'not really' then thats not a real expectation in my mind. When you expect something and it doesnt happen...then that is a failure.

so if 'not really' is the answer then thats 'not really' a valid expectation

Depends at what time during the year you asked me.

At halftime of the playoff game, yeah I did.

I preface the not really with the fact that so many things are out of his control.

If they are plagued with injuries for instance.

But I don’t necessarily think it’s problematic to say it’s a failure if he doesn’t hit certain benchmarks or whatever

The expectations should be high. Some of that is on the chiefs coaching staff and front office for how they’ve talked him up.

But he’s also in a situation I don’t think many qbs have been in early in their career

Andy makes every QB he coaches look good. Pat is the most gifted passer of the bunch, and it’s not close.

I agree. Im not saying there arent benchmarks and expectations. But in the NFL if you dont meet your expectations, you lose your job. 4000 yards is most definitely not on a list of his expectations for this season. Period.

Your expectations I guess.

Too many moving parts to be pass fail with expectations though.

Well you already said that you wouldnt consider it a failure if he doesnt meet your expectations....why bother having expectations if not meeting them is not failure?

In most people's minds and certainly in the NFL , not meeting an expectations is the same thing as failure.

I dont get why you would set an expectations and not say its a failure when it goes unmet , i dont see the point in that....in any aspect of life.

And I agree theres too many moving parts to pick some arbitrary number thats aS high as 4k and have that be an 'expectation' thats one of the main reasons i think its a dumb "expectation".

Favres TD% was 5 and INT% was 3.3
Rodgers TD% is 6.4 and INT% is 1.6


That's not even something you can spin by talking about era differences.
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Yeah Rodgers is insane. He has the highest passer rating in league history, which is 7 points higher than the 2nd QB on the list (Manning).

He has something like 4 TD’s to 1 INT ratio in his career. That’s incredible.

I'll bring this up again: Derek Carr has never cracked 4000 yards.

It's not about the QB or the difficulty facing a young QB. It's entirely about the supporting cast, the coach, the playcalling, and the moxy of the guy.

Yeah, don't call it an expectation, but it's a pretty strong prediction. I'm giving high odds to it occurring if injuries don't get in the way (knock on wood).

its so crazy how things have gotten with the passing game...Joe Montana used to be the absolute pinnacle of TD : INT

then brady has destroyed that and other QB's like rodgers are blowing it out too....

i think that softer safety and CB rules have helped though, I dont think this 100% just better QB play...its rules changes too

1) Destruction of predecessors "best season as a Chief" statistics.

2) Wild card victory.

Completely realistic.

Utterly attainable.

And coming to a television near you.

If it’s his issues or his fault not meeting expectations, it’s a failure. The not really was due to the fact that it could be reasons outside of his power that cause it to happen or not.

I don’t think 4K is too high, there were 14 guys that did it in 16 and this chiefs situation I think sets up where he throws for a lot of yards and it could end up being a meh season win wise.

But we’ll see

Thats all I am really saying. I mean I just kind of cringe at the idea of setting the 'expectation' so high when not meeting an expectation is the very definition of failure.

I predict good things for Mahomes too...but to me it really isnt about htis season since by most people's expectations this is pretty much a building year and I refuse to get upset if we have a setback in terms of record or yards or whatever....

Just getting pat mahomes has raised my expectations for the future massively!

edit: i dont usually like arguing about defintions of words ..but oh well

Honestly I think it’s more surrounding caatand coaching staff that has expectations higher for me

Holy hell what more could a qb ask for?

In that case, then I'm with you. **** expectations. I wasn't a Chiefs fan in 1983 (I was 3 years old). Pat Mahomes is the brave knight who slayed my 1st QB virginity dragon. He gets a hella ****ing long leash from me both this year, next year, and the year after that.

**** TimBone and his dumb thread!!!!!!

Absolutely. Watching Veach fill out the rest of the roster will be interesting, but the reason for the season has been addressed, and it's nothing but skyward trajectory from here on out!

Eh, I dunno about that long

I’m a big believer in the rookie qb contract. The chiefs need Mahomes to be good quick if they’re gonna push for a SB in the easier part of the Mahomes era.
If he’s legit and you have to give him a big deal it’s gonna get a whole lot tougher

Watching Clark issue that check is gonna' give me wood.

ANd thats another very valid point. I might be a bit paranoid and I know its not people like Rust Shack (actual homers) that are doing this but I feel like there is an element out there..(alexsexuals) .that are setting up some WAY too high 'expectations' and then will troll us when he 'fails' to meet these unreasonable goals.

I agree 1000000% that hes got a pretty long leash and I think that he needs work on even basics like reads, drops, mechanics, footwork...by most accounts.

So I mean if he continues to perform as he did in that final game, and improve on that ... Its all good with me..but I expect him to have some bad games. You wont see me crying 'bust' if he has a rough rookie season..for sure.

Is it a leash long enough to let Peebag walk circles around the truck stop?


Yes. Yes it is.

**** those clowns. All dues have been paid to the tune of 5 mediocre, pud-whacking seasons. I DARE those ****ing clowns to troll me.

He gets time for sure, but we need him to take off pretty fast

4 years of cheap qb play has to be taken advantage of

I feel the same