So right now the Royals are 9th in the majors in run differential.

I posted this on a different thread, but want to put it here.

I think run differential is a huge indicator of how good your team is. Just look at previous world series winners and where they ranked.

23 - Rangers 4th in MLB
22 - Astros 3rd
21 - Braves 7th
20 - Dodgers 1st
19 - Nationals 6th
18 - Red Sox 2nd
17 - Astros 3rd
16 - Cubs 1st
15 - Royals 5th
14 - Giants Tied 8th
13 - Red Sox 1st
12 - Giants 9th
11 - Cardinals 7th
10 - Giants 3rd
09 - Yankees 2nd
08 - Phillies 3rd
07 - Red Sox 1st
06 - Cardinals 14th
05 - White Sox 7th
04 - Red Sox 2nd
03 - Marlins 11th
02 - Angels 1st
01 - Diamondbacks 3rd
00 - Yankees Tied 8th
99 - Yankees 3rd
98 - Yankees 1st
97 - Marlins 7th
96 - Yankees 3rd
95 - Braves 3rd
93 - Blue Jays 5th
92 - Blue Jays 3rd
91 - Twins 2nd
90 - Reds 5th

Going back 32 years the average MLB run differential ranking is 4th. Run differential seems to be a really good indicator of who the best teams are. 19% of teams that won the world series between 1990 and 2023 were ranked 1st in run differential in all of the majors. 60% of teams were ranked in the top 3 of run differential and 72% of teams were ranked in the top 5. Run differential seems like one of the best indicators of how good a team was.

They just announced that Bobby Witt is going to be in the HR derby.

Sounds like I'll be watching

It'll be cool to see, but I just hope it doesn't screw up his swing.

But how great is it that we have four guys representing KC for the ASG? Congrats Salvy, Lugo, BWJ and Ragans!

With Bobby's swing I can really see him getting into a groove if they throw it to his sweet spot.

I wondered if his pops would be on the mound, but that won't be the case:

<a href="http://archive.today/Bn6O4">
<img style="width:300px;height:200px;background-color:white" src="https://archive.ph/Bn6O4/570bcea59d521cdac2f8fd7038cc9a1cbf6a9d28/scr.png"><br>
KC Royals star Bobby Witt Jr. in 2024 MLB Home Run Derby | Kansas City Star<br>
archived 9 Jul 2024 02:41:50 UTC
</a>

Why hasn't Walter Pennington been brought back up?

It was definitely the best indicator nine years ago.

No baseball today:-(

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">No Cardinals/Royals game today. It&#39;s been postponed due to rain.<br><br>They&#39;ll play a split doubleheader Wednesday. Game 1 12:45, Game 2, 6:45. <br><br>Tickets for today&#39;s game will be valid for Game 1 tomorrow. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/STLCards?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#STLCards</a></p>&mdash; Katie Woo (@katiejwoo) <a href="https://twitter.com/katiejwoo/status/1810718634177617954?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 9, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

****!!!!

So here we are... High water mark was back in late May when we were 15 games over .500, and firmly in the playoff race.

Now things look a little different. We're still over .500, albeit only by 6 games. Starting pitching is still in great shape. We've got a legit superstar in the making putting together an MVP type season, with a few good offensive pieces around him in Salvy, Vinnie, Massey, and to a lesser extent Garcia, Renfroe and Isbel, and that's probably generous. The bullpen is held together by chewing gum and scotch tape.

So here's the question. We're currently 1.5 games back of the wild card. With Houston, Boston, Minnesota and others surging, do we sell or buy before the deadline? There are legit reasons to go either way. What do we think?

nothing

Sell high. Don't buy.

Trade for bullpen guys. There isn't anyone in the minors that is even close to untouchable and bullpen guys don't cost much in terms of prospects.

Why would you bring all these veterans (Lugo, Wacha, Renfroe) in if you're going to sell in a situation (1.5 games back) that would have been desired in spring training?

Former Royal manager Mike Matheny was involved in this.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">We’ve all seen Albert Bell shoulder tackle Fernando Vina, but the whole sequence is so much wilder. <a href="https://t.co/lsZBh5l4iW">pic.twitter.com/lsZBh5l4iW</a></p>&mdash; BaseballHistoryNut (@nut_history) <a href="https://twitter.com/nut_history/status/1810792177892516240?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 9, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

To have a brighter future, i.e. a better shot for sustained contention. It is a frustrating spot: seemingly on the brink of contention, yet with a paltry stable in the farm system and few guys beyond Witt that are true cornerstones to build around. And like you said: reliant on veterans. Veterans that don't really factor into the long-term plans, and probably won't sustain their current performance levels.

Royals fan: Our minor league system sucks
Royals fan: Don't trade our minor league guys, you would ruin our system!

Me: Make the ****ing playoffs and see what happens.

Who do you think we'd possibly trade for a relief pitcher that would dim this future if traded away? How often do prospects become even average big leaguers? It's like you guys don't realize how light the return is for a RP.

Last year Aroldis Chapman was the best RP on the market and the Royals got back 2 guys that weren't even in their top 30 prospect rankings. One was a 25 year old.pitcher coming off back to back TJS. Cole Ragans is a god damn stud, but no one expected this.

Beyond hoping for the best, I don't have much to suggest. Enjoying meaningful baseball (rly tho, I'm trying), which isn't something we often have. A rarity for all the reasons we've mentioned: poor drafting, poor development, subsequent lack of assets to flip for fine tuning of the roster for a legit push.

As soon as I was praising Maikel Garcia for having a solid, under-appreciated April & May, he decided to channel his inner Rubén Gotay and play like it was 2005 in June. Even Salvy followed suit to a large degree. I get it though. Long season. Peaks and valleys. Run differential and pythagorean record still provide some light amidst the June/early-July darkness. True enough, 10th overall in winning percentage, and 8th in both pythag & run differential is more than could have been expected (although, 25th in strength of schedule worth noting).

The pessimist/realist/jilted Royals loyalist in me will probably always have doubts. Decades of lousiness does that. But oh how sweet the playoff runs are when they happen.

Our minor league sucks so bad we have to be more protective of the assets we actually have. If we had a talented and deep farm system it would make more sense to trade guys.

Not just for relief guys. People fail to realize how light the return is for anything other than a Soto situation. Rental pitchers and hitters don't go for top 20 prospects anymore. You aren't getting 3 months of CC sabathia for Matt Leporta in 2024.

The whole "let's have a fire sale and restock the system" is mostly nonsense. Ragans is a nice player obviously, but nobody is giving up their entire farm system for a guy with 2 TJ surgeries and barely one whole year of success. Lugo is a nice story, but he's 34 and has never pitched more than 146 innings in a season. The return isn't going to be massive there either. Salvy has maybe one more year in him, if that. If we got say, the 50th best prospect(around what Verlander got last year) and the 78th best prospect and some other fringe prospects for all of those guys, are we really all sitting around thrilled at where the team is at? I doubt it. That doesn't put us in the top 10 of minor league systems. There still aren't any cant miss guys. The future is just as unsettled as if we traded away some of our guys at the deadline this year.

You're one of those dumb shits that keeps ignoring the fact that you don't have to give up much of anything to improve this team.

Cole Ragans would absolutely bring back a massive return. He's untouchable to me, though.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Next week’s Home Run Derby won’t be Bobby Witt Jr.’s first.<br><br>In 2018, he won the High School Home Run Derby at Nationals Park. <a href="https://t.co/Qvwnnv8LQO">pic.twitter.com/Qvwnnv8LQO</a></p>&mdash; Jake Eisenberg (@JakeEisenberg_) <a href="https://twitter.com/JakeEisenberg_/status/1810691827529367983?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 9, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I don't really see why people keep saying this. It has no basis in the last 5-10 years of baseball transactions and how teams treat trades. The closest to Ragans that I can find is when the Rays shipped Snell to the Padres with two years left of control in 2020. All that netted them was the 25th-ish best prospect and 3 other players, none of which were top 100 prospects. This is for a guy who already had a cy young and without the massive injury history of Regans. And that big prospect, a pitcher, is already out of the majors. None of the other guys did anything and it was a big loss for the Rays. So is one top 100 prospect and some mediocre other guys really worth trading Regans? People keep acting like Regans is a sure fire bet to bring in multiple top 100 guys and we will just be loaded in the minors, when in reality there is nothing pointing this actually happening because teams just don't do that anymore except in generational talent cases.

Why not trade singer for a couple bullpen arms and move Bubic to the rotation. Singer has a 2.9x era on the season, could be a good candidate.

Injury history isn't even a little concerning. He had two TJS, but only because they rushed him back after the first one. Also he has the rest of 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, and I think 2029 until he's a free agent. 4-5+ years of control for a guy that has shown that he can be a legit #1 over a full season of starts and strikes out the amount of people he strikes out?

Yeah he'd bring back an absolute haul. It's not like a team trading for a ****ing prospect. He's pretty well known commodity at this point. The Blake Snell trade isn't even remotely close to the same and the reason you can't find a comp that's close is because teams don't ever part with guys like Ragans.

Yeah, exactly.

Position players with control are still kind of expensive to acquire, but half seasons of relief pitchers cost you a lotto ticket. Ragans was a lotto ticket who just happened to hit for KC.

Normally, you're getting guys like C.J. Alexander back in return.

They could improve this team a lot by trading for a few RP rentals.

If the Royals wanted to go in that direction, it should have been done last winter.

You don't do that at 49-43 in the era of tournament baseball where the Texas Rangers and the Arizona Diamondbacks played in the 2023 World Series.

I was hoping you would comment on his whole "Ragans wouldnt bring back a haul" stuff. He would wouldn't he?

This conversation is beginning to sound like the infamous 2014 trade deadline thread titled

“Tigers Get Price. Royals Get Jack Shit”, by a complete clueless shithead named halfcan.

Damn, that was a hilarious thread.

He would bring back the best return of anything the Royals could trade beyond Bobby Witt, but it wouldn't be a crazy type of haul like what the White Sox got for Sale or anything. I don't think it would be as much as the Rays got for Snell, either.

Awesome, phognutz in the royals thread.

I’m kidding …

messed up meant to post this instead:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">“We’re going to try to get better at the deadline,” says Royals owner John Sherman <a href="https://t.co/IJOyl5ai98">https://t.co/IJOyl5ai98</a></p>&mdash; Royals Review (@royalsreview) <a href="https://twitter.com/royalsreview/status/1811038024966246728?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 10, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I hear ya, friend. All good.

Can you promptly delete this since it doesn't align with my beliefs?

A little St.Louis WTI history. Some of this I may have told previously, so forgive me for the repetition.

My mom as teenager, worked at Sportsman’s Park, where the Cardinals and the STL Browns played. This was in the early to mid 30’s. She grew up in some difficult circumstances (but who didn’t after crash in 29?), and managed to work her summers at the park.

In those days it was not uncommon to play doubleheaders. In the afternoon. In the heat. The team used giant round horse/livestock troughs full of ice to keep beer cold. They sold Budweiser, Schlitz PBR and some “other shit beers”.

Bud was 10c, all the others were a nickel. So, as the sun would beat down on the trough and turn the ice into water, my mom, a young girl of minimal means, would reach into the trough and carefully slide the label off a bottle of Bud. Then, she would slip the label off the the “off brand” and switch the labels. Then she would sell the off brand as Budweiser, charge a dime and get to pocket a whole nickel. On good days it was worth 35/40c. But that helped give her a little spending money.

She was casual acquaintances with legendary Cardinals of the Gas House Gang. The Dean brothers, or Pepper Martin would amble by to purchase a soft drink on occasion.

It seemed glorious, but on the way home she would walk the railroad tracks and pick up any coal that might fallen from a coal car to use in the winter to fire the furnace. Anything to help the family.

There’s a great deal more to her life story than that, but today, being able to reflect on it in a baseball related way helps me understand why I love this game so much.

A good days work in STL.

Baseball America looks back on the Royals' 2022 draft, labeling in the "Drafts With Some Concerns" category.

Kansas City Royals

The Royals pick of outfielder Gavin Cross ninth overall looks better now than it did a year ago, as he’s shown last year he was affected by an illness. Third baseman Cayden Wallace (2nd round) and righthander Mason Barnett (3rd round) are Royals Top 10 prospects. The pick of 20th-round shortstop Austin Charles could pay off as he has a high ceiling if it all clicks. Righthander Steven Zobac (fourth round), lefthander Hunter Patteson (fifth round) and outfielder Javier Vaz (15th round) are all in the Royals Top 30. But for a team picking ninth overall, it’s hard to point to a prospect who’s broken through, at least yet. This could be a draft that moves back into the average category if Charles, Cross or Wallace take further steps.

Baseball America's pick for the sixth overall selection.

6. Royals — Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard-Westlake HS, Studio City, Calif.

I’m making my first change from last week’s mock with the Royals going with Rainer instead of Hagen Smith (who I still think the Royals like quite a bit). The trio of Rainer, Smith and Griffin feel like the current favorites at this spot given how the board has panned out. I think the team could be intrigued with Caglianone if he were available, and I’ve heard Montgomery linked to the Royals recently, though he seems a lot less likely to me than all of the other names I’ve mentioned.

Eric Longenhagen's Royals pick.

6. Kansas City Royals
Pick: Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
Perhaps the most consistent rumor I’ve heard is that Kansas City likes Smith and high school shortstop Bryce Rainer.

Three days off this week and then the All Star break next week hopefully let's a bunch of guys heal up from any lingering issues.

Hopefully Massey can rub icy hot on his back

MJ Melendez has been a passable defender this year. Now is the time his bat gets alive.

Did we trade a pitcher to the orioles?

Collin Selby for cash

I don't want Smith.

What can we buy with that cash?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-theme="dark"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Derek Shelton says he pulled Paul Skenes in the middle of a no-hitter because he could tell Skenes was tired after his six-pitch seventh inning<br><br>“It didn’t have anything to do with pitch count…. It was about trusting your eyes.”<a href="https://t.co/Dy7Z22VxoC">pic.twitter.com/Dy7Z22VxoC</a></p>&mdash; Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) <a href="https://twitter.com/TalkinBaseball_/status/1811523779773817259?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 11, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“Nothing to do with pitch count” my ass. 99 pitches.

Even if Shelton is full of shit, Skenes still had two innings to go. No manager in baseball would have sent him back out there.

He had a chance for another inning if he was through eight.

Huh?

He has a lot of things that make him comparable to Asa Lacy... and Chris Sale.

College arm (both). Low slot lefty (Sale). Crazy K numbers (both). One year of production (Lacy). Injury/workload concerns (both).

MLB typically announces the all-star starters on Monday. They're definitely trying to promote this.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">WARNING: A heat wave is about to hit Texas.<br><br>Paul Skenes has been named the starting pitcher for the National League at the All-Star Game �� <a href="https://t.co/wjOKiloWOm">pic.twitter.com/wjOKiloWOm</a></p>&mdash; Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) <a href="https://twitter.com/Pirates/status/1811786318034112879?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 12, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

They want Olivia Dunne to promote this.

Baseball America has the Royals taking Smith in today's mock.

6. Royals — Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas

I’ve oscillated between Hagen Smith and Bryce Rainer for the Royals in my last few mocks, but I’m going back to the college lefthander. Scouting director Brian Bridges aggressively targeted pitchers in his previous tenure with the Braves, and there’s a thought that the Royals as an organization value lefthanded pitching as much as anyone.

If Caglianone is available here, it’s difficult to see him getting beyond this pick. If both Caglianone and Smith are off the board—a scenario that seems unlikely to me—I would lean toward Rainer. This also could be another landing spot for Wetherholt if he is available, though I’m guessing all the other players I’ve mentioned would be ahead of him.

I wouldn't hate that, but I generally think Kiley McDaniel at ESPN is a little more dialed-in. He has Chase Burns falling to KC at 6 and that sounds pretty awesome to me.

He has (and this makes sense to me)

J.J. Westerholt
Jac Caglianone
Condon
Bazzana
Rainer
Burns (to KC)

.

Burns would be ideal. He has a much lower walk rate than Smith and has a better pitch mix with the curve and change to pair with wipe out slider. He also doesn't have a Tommy John surgery on his track record.

McDaniel thinks the Royals could use Burns like they did with Finnegan as a bullpen arm this year.

Royals got all the juice out of that squeeze.

So here's hoping one of the holders of a winning streak in GDTs can start the GDT for an important weekend of Royals baseball vs the Red Sox, currently 1 game ahead of us for the last wild card spot.

And it would be a great way to go into the ASB, winning the series on the road. Game time 6:10 p.m.

Ive said this several times, but God damn do I hate the ****ing draft lottery. It's very easy to see who the worst teams are in MLB and the Royals were legit a bottom 2 team in the league last year and were awful the year before too. They got absolutely ****ed by the lottery.

Last year we should have had a top 5 pick and should have gotten Walker Jenkins who is the #5 ranked prospect in all of baseball. This year we should have had the #2 pick and we'd have a shot at a legit difference maker.

**** the lottery

I hate it too, but I can see why the MLBPA wanted it with so many teams tanking and not spending on free agents.

The crazy part about last year's top five is all five of those picks would have been picked ahead of all the players in the 2024 draft. That's shitty the Royals couldn't have landed one of those guys.

But I will say this, I feel like there's a major drop off after the first top 10 picks this year, so it's good to for the Royals to be at 6.

It's also one of those drafts where so many top 40 prospects have noticeable flaws and any team picking on the first day could eventually wind up with one of the top players.

cmh6476 was 2-0 on weds...hopefully he didnt change his socks yet
Gaby is a great choice too
George does great work also

That TLO dude is undefeated…..

For what it’s worth.

The absolute only thing I would do if I was the Royals is pick up a couple of cheap relievers. I would not imagine they make a home run trade for any good positional player who would start everyday. 1. We dont have the resources and 2. Id we did win the bidding war we would have absolutely nothing left in the minors.

Keep building for the future. We are in a great spot for starting pitching. Looks like Singer not a UFA until 2027. Wacha UFA after next year. Lugo until 2026. Ragans until at least 2027. And hopefully Marsh came become something but more confident wirh Bubic once he gets acclimated after his injury. Just need some good power relievers and fill some holes and we can continue to compete every year for the foreseeable future.

Phils release 2B Whit Merrifield
Phillies released 2B Whit Merrifield.
Advice: Merrifield had a resurgence with the Blue Jays last year. He hit .272 with 11 home runs and 26 stolen bases and even made the all-star game. Merrifield struggled mightily with the Phillies this year, failing to capitalize on stretches where the club was without Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber. Even after getting an $8 million contract it’s no surprise that the team is moving on already. Merrifield hit .199 with three home runs and 11 RBI in 53 games with Philadelphia.

Sucks for Whit. Dude finally gets on a legit contender, the current best team in baseball, and he's over the hill. That's a bummer.

And that's also a no, we should not bring him back. I'm sorry, that ship has sailed.

Just say no to Whit. Really liked him when he played here, but IMO that ship has sailed.

lfg

Pretty difficult for him to be much worse than Garcia or Adam Frazier but we already got dudes as good as him under contract.

If you want to tank as a strategy so be it, not all teams will do it.

The lottery just hoses bad teams. In the NHL it's ****ed the Red Wings repeatedly.

Stop being shitty and you won't have to worry about it.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Phillies release Whit Merrifield <a href="https://twitter.com/Cherry_Pins?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Cherry_Pins</a> <a href="https://t.co/MBbiAokq8G">pic.twitter.com/MBbiAokq8G</a></p>&mdash; Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) <a href="https://twitter.com/TalkinBaseball_/status/1811828386093818188?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 12, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That's easier said then done. The draft is supposed to be a way for small market teams to compete with larger market team. It's a 162 game season, so usually the team with the worst record is probably the worst team. They should get first shot at the best talent.

Adam Frazier DHing and leading off is possibly the dumbest shit I've ever seen. Like ****ing Qutardo does some stupid stupid shit.

It's not the rebuilding that's the problem, it's when a team like the A's barely carries a payroll over $60 million. That's the problem.

I'm not advocating that a rebuilding team spends money on mediocre free agents, but I would like to see them invest in their future. If a near minimum salary player like Mason Miller is playing at an all-star level, reward him. He deserves it.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">We have acquired RHP Hunter Harvey from the Washington Nationals for minor-league INF Cayden Wallace and our Competitive Balance A pick.<br><br>To make room for Harvey, RHP Nick Anderson has been designated for assignment.</p>&mdash; Kansas City Royals (@Royals) <a href="https://twitter.com/Royals/status/1812275939285291351?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 14, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Get him this season and next ...give up 39th pick. Gotta be the best reliever they have now