this. full stop.

he will smash all chiefs records if he just keeps getting better

I don't care what kind of numbers he puts up.

The only prediction I'll make is, we'll be pretty damn happy with our shiny new QB.

I think Mahomes is going to HAVE to throw at least 2 TD's a game for us to win. I don't expect the defense to hold teams under 20 a game- look at our schedule.

And once again- whatever QB's did in the past has no bearing on Mahomes this year.

Gonna go out on a limb... more career wins than losses.

A shitton more

This will be my last post on the subject since we're hijacking the hell out of Tims thread, but I'm not have you tell me in no uncertain terms that Rodgers is better

And yes, I can spin the era differences... only one of those players came up during the 'Manning Rules' era, and it wasnt Brett Favre

You're welcome to your opinion, as its an argument no one can win, just like its impossible to say Montana meant more than Johnny U... its likewise impossible to say Rodgers > Favre

My guess is its largely a generational thing, you're likely in your 20s-30s and have watched more Rodgers, where I'm creeping up on 50 and watched more Favre

Sorry Tim, its my last post on this

Not that I disagree, but that'd be a team expectation more than a Mahomes expectation.

Umm... I shouldn't even respond to this but I will...

4400 yards would have put him 4th in the NFL in 2017.
29 TD's would have tied him for 4th in the NFL in 2017.
I feel like I"m going full homer just by thinking he will get anywhere near those numbers, when history says it's highly unlikely.

19 INTs are only 4 more than Peyton Manning threw in his 2nd season and 9 less than he threw his rookie year. Dan Marino, even in his epic 2nd season, threw 17 picks. Drew Brees, who played in only 1 game as a rookie as well, threw 16 picks. The list goes on.

Point is, even some of the better QBs of the past 20 years have had to learn the hard way. This kid is a risk taker and he's likely going to throw quite a few picks his first year out the gate.

If I were looking more at history and less at how I feel about this kid's abilities, I'd probably have him around 3500 yards, 20 tds and 17 ints as a best-case scenario. I chose instead to go full homer.

If you're expecting some crazy shit like 4700 yards, 35 tds and 10 ints in year 1, I think you ought to temper your expectations.

umm

ok lil chiefy

"history doesn't matter"

nevermind the list of QB's who have gotten 4400 yards and 30 td in their 1st starting season is about 1 line long

This is the kind of answer I was hoping to see. I believe there are going to be more mistakes than people realize....and from the perceived expectations of this place, it doesn't seem as though there will be much patience.

Yes, but with getting better will come statistics. He isn't throwing for zero yards and zero touchdowns.

I'm going to put my official guess down at:

3742 yards
31 TDs
13 INTs
11-5 overall record
Makes playoffs

I predict higher ratings.

MUCH higher.

With the weapons we have and the sheer amount of passes this kid is going to throw in this offense, I would be surprised if he threw less than 30 TD’s.

But that means more INT’s too.

After thoroughly watching college tape this kid just has superstar ability. I'm counting on the new OC to light a fire under the feet of the OL and make those guys play better. If he accomplishes that I think we contend this year, and that's praying the draft goes well. The draft won't go the way I'd prefer, getting either the G Hernandez or Billy Price, then Ian Thomas TE in the 3rd and best available DB using next years 2nd in the Peters trade to get where we need to for another CB or Safety. Then I'm hoping we can pluck some more DB's from other practice squads for depth. I am open to linebacker depth with the 4th rounder picks and more OL help in the 6th round.

My biggest concern is how many drives Harris ruins if he isn't replaced. Also, I'm not a Bailey fan so something has to happen there.

Bottom line is Mahomes is going to do well THIS season. How much we win really depends on the others.

The thing is though that he has already proven he can throw an Interception and still win. That's huge. Even had us out to a 14 point lead before that was given away by Bray.

If Smith turned it over... even once... there was a better than 50% chance we were going to lose. I posted the numbers on it once, so I know that is correct.