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Old 04-02-2013, 06:59 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is online now
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I guess at this point, it all comes down to Branden Albert.

Just some Chiefs-related rambling this morning. Take it or leave it.

If the team can't sign Branden Albert, or if they trade him, I have worlds of trouble figuring out how they draft anybody but Joeckel/Fisher at 1.1, even if they find a way to trade down, which I now suspect they will.

I'm obviously just one of you guys, but I do follow this shit pretty much every day. I'd say if they ink Albert longterm, that's the only way you avoid going tackle.

Put it like this. Chances of going Joeckel/Fisher:
  • option A: they ink Albert long-term: 5%.
  • option B: if they keep Albert on the franchise tag: 75%.
  • option C: if they trade Albert away: 100%.
I just can't see any scenerio where we choose to let Albert go and they choose to go with Geno or either of the passrushers (Jordan or Ansah) that they obviously like a lot. I can see it happen with Albert on the tag, but even that's hard to see as they'd probably just love bookending Joeckel with Albert for a year before sliding Joeckel over to LT.

Here's the problem with that option, and why I think options A or C are the only viable solutions: if the team is incapable of landing a 2nd rounder for Albert in the 2013 draft, than the best they can hope for outside of doing this whole ordeal again in 2014 is a 3rd round compensatory pick in 2015. That's the deal: a 2nd rounder in 2013, or a 3rd rounder in 2015. That's why the Chiefs are trying to get rid of Albert now.

The fact Albert isn't showing up for practice, the only player to do so, is pretty damning as well. That shows option C to be waaaaaaaaaaaaaay out in the lead. Option A is far behind, and I don't even think option B has left the gates -- I simply don't regard it as a possibility.

The silver lining of all that, however, is the cap space. Losing Albert, much as I would hate it, means that we can replace him with Joeckel/Fisher and still have $10million in cap space to play with either this year or roll it over to 2014 for god knows who. And the player replacing Albert, at least, will be younger and cheaper for at least five years. So there's that.

What are the odds that Albert comes down on his contract demands if the Chiefs can't find adequate trade compensation? Perhaps Albert can take that as a sign, and just take a more manageable deal instead of initiating a year-plus contract battle with the Chiefs, playing under a one-year deal.

As for the non-tackle options with our 1st round pick, which I simply don't regard as a large possibility at this point: if the Chiefs stay at #1 overall, I don't think you can take either passrusher and feel good about yourself. I think both passrushers make a ton of sense at #4 (Eagles) or #5 (Browns), but again this assumes that the Chiefs have settled in with Albert for the long haul and aren't interested in Joeckel/Fisher. So I think the 1.1 becomes Geno Smith if, and only if, the Chiefs ink Albert long-term, or at least believe they will be able to do so. Any other variation: an Albert trade, or a trade down, means that Geno will not be the pick.

The Albert omens aren't good at this point. And based on some interesting observations from BossChief, I think the flurry of recent QB activity in the wake of KC hosting Geno this week means that it's come out that the Chiefs have secured a trade down partner as well. Which means I think the Chiefs are going to be trading down to #4 or #5. If that happens, if they plan on keeping Albert, I fully expect Dion Jordan or Ezekiel Ansah as heir apparents to/insurance for Tamba Hali in 2014, as I expect there will be a Dumervil-esque restructuring ordeal. If Albert's gone, well hey, they may still get Joeckel at that spot, or they'll settle for Fisher.

My guess: the Chiefs will find a trade partner for Albert, and get a 2nd rounder back in this year's draft for him, while landing another 2nd rounder in trading down from 1.1 to 1.4 or 1.5 with a team (Eagles or Browns?) who wants Geno. Like I said earlier, the good news is that we'll find a cheap, capable replacement for Albert and still have two seconds to play with.

That means two quality players with star potential, or the underrated possibility at this point that the Chiefs package those 2nd rounders and trade back into the 1st, should somebody exciting like OLB Bjoern Werner, OLB Damontre Moore, WR Justin Hunter, WR Cordarrelle Patterson, TE Tyler Eifert, or S Matt Elam falls a bit more than expected...

Like I said, just some ramblings this morning.
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Old 04-02-2013, 08:24 AM   #16
ChiefMojo ChiefMojo is offline
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Alex was a big part of their success and to say otherwise is just hate!

I think it is quite clear Albert is getting traded. If their was a long term deal in the works, he would know it by now. The new regime has put very little to no effort in re-signing him long term. They moved swiftly with Bowe/Colquitt and all of their other moves have been swift with a plan.

This staling by the Chiefs brass is just leverage for trade possibilities in the draft and trying to milk more in a trade with Albert. I know from a personal perspective it sucks for Albert but this is a business move first and foremost... he is just a pawn.

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Old 04-02-2013, 08:25 AM   #17
Just Passin' By Just Passin' By is offline
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Originally Posted by jd1020 View Post
Do you honestly believe Alex Smith was the reason the 49ers were even in a position for their special teams to blow a SB appearance?

Personally, I don't believe their 29th ranked passing attack was cause for the 49ers success.
Smith was the QB. He was on the verge of getting his team to the Super Bowl before the team's special teams crapped the bed. That runs counter to your claim. You can split the hairs any way you want, but that's how it happened.
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Old 04-02-2013, 08:27 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by Just Passin' By View Post
Smith was the QB. He was on the verge of getting his team to the Super Bowl before the team's special teams crapped the bed. That runs counter to your claim. You can split the hairs any way you want, but that's how it happened.
Split hairs?

You can act like Smith was leading that team all you want. That's not the case.
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Old 04-02-2013, 08:28 AM   #19
Crush Crush is offline
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Originally Posted by FRCDFED View Post
We were 2-15 last year. No one position will effect our loss-win column more than a QB. Yes, even super all world only-allowed-one-sack Brandon Albert.
If we replace Albert with Joeckel, Alex Smith won't even make it to the midway point.
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Old 04-02-2013, 08:31 AM   #20
Just Passin' By Just Passin' By is offline
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Originally Posted by jd1020 View Post
Split hairs?

You can act like Smith was leading that team all you want. That's not the case.
I'm not acting like anything. I'm pointing out that your post was wrong, nothing more.
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Old 04-02-2013, 08:31 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by Just Passin' By View Post
I'm not acting like anything. I'm pointing out that your post was wrong, nothing more.
Point out the "wrong" part.

Did he "take" them to the SB or did he ALMOST "take" them to the SB.

If the answer is "ALMOST" then you are wrong and should stop talking.
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Old 04-02-2013, 08:32 AM   #22
ChiefMojo ChiefMojo is offline
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That is your opinion but not fact. Others will believe that Joeckel will do more than good his rookie year. He is a very polished prospect.
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Old 04-02-2013, 08:35 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by ChiefMojo View Post
Alex was a big part of their success and to say otherwise is just hate!
As much of a part of the 49ers as Trent Dilfer was to the Ravens.
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Old 04-02-2013, 08:36 AM   #24
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Still was a quality part. Who was the one limiting turnovers to allow the big weapons to succeed?
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Old 04-02-2013, 08:38 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by ChiefMojo View Post
That is your opinion but not fact. Others will believe that Joeckel will do more than good his rookie year. He is a very polished prospect.
You know who else was a very polished prospect?

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Old 04-02-2013, 08:44 AM   #26
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Let's not act like tackles are super safe picks.

Jason Brown, Robert Gallery, Levi Brown, Mike Williams, Kenyatta Walker, and Tony Ugoh all agree with this.
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Old 04-02-2013, 08:46 AM   #27
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Old 04-02-2013, 08:50 AM   #28
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Originally Posted by jd1020 View Post
Trading one of the best LTs in the NFL for just any starting QB is a trade I likely pass on every day of the week, considering you aren't going to be getting offers from the Patriots for Brady or Packers for Rodgers.
I'd have just a soon had Matt Flynn for a 5th in 2014
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Old 04-02-2013, 08:51 AM   #29
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Direckshun,
Problem is nobody wants Geno enough to trade with the Chiefs. They're betting that he will be there when they pick. If I were in thier position, I'd be following the same strategy.
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Old 04-02-2013, 08:54 AM   #30
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What exactly is it about Albert's style of play that Reid doesn't like?
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