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Old 03-05-2013, 08:18 PM  
BigRedChief BigRedChief is offline
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VARSITY
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Dow Jones hits record all time high

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/busin...ets_03-05.html

Corporate profits at an all time high. Corporate profits up 117% under Obama.
http://www.drudge.com/news/163559/co...-all-time-high

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...ma-policy.html
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Old 03-05-2013, 10:20 PM   #91
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Originally Posted by La literatura View Post
I've never heard of any of those. Just the DJIA and the other popular indexes going up is all I'm basing my conclusion on.
Well hell, I mean WTF do we need all those other things for? I mean we have you to tell us that the Dow went up so Traders must be buying!!!

And just think about all the time and money so many people have spent poruing over internal market stats and what not? And I mean highly eduacted people, not just your average JUCO student.

All they had to do was ask you!!!
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Old 03-05-2013, 10:22 PM   #92
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Well hell, I mean WTF do we need all those other things for? I mean we have you to tell us that the Dow went up so Traders must be buying!!!
People are selling, more people are buying or wanting to buy.
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Old 03-05-2013, 10:22 PM   #93
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Originally Posted by La literatura View Post
Not at all. I'm actually having a good time dipping into the fount of your financial wisdom. I know you've made quite a lot of money and have set yourself up for a great retirement.
Not as much as you, of course.
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Old 03-05-2013, 10:24 PM   #94
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Originally Posted by La literatura View Post
People are selling, more people are buying or wanting to buy.
Wow, world hunger has been solved.


Now tell me, who is buying and who is selling? It's not enough to know peopel are buying and selling, any ****wad, college puke knows that. I want to know what the smart money is doing. So tell us all, please.
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Old 03-05-2013, 10:25 PM   #95
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Not as much as you, of course.
I haven't even invested a nickel yet.
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Old 03-05-2013, 10:27 PM   #96
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Wow, world hunger has been solved.


Now tell me, who is buying and who is selling? It's not enough to know peopel are buying and selling, any ****wad, college puke knows that.
Like, you want names and companies? I think I did pretty well getting us to the point where we can agree that we're currently in a bull market.
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Old 03-05-2013, 10:28 PM   #97
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I haven't even invested a nickel yet.
No shit? That would never have occurred to me. You're pretty slick.
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Old 03-05-2013, 10:28 PM   #98
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
No shit? That would never have occurred to me. You're pretty slick.
Dang. So you probably also figured out I was being sarcastic when I said that I know you've made a lot of money on the stock market with your day trading operation, then?
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Old 03-05-2013, 10:31 PM   #99
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Originally Posted by La literatura View Post
Like, you want names and companies? I think I did pretty well getting us to the point where we can agree that we're currently in a bull market.
No, I just want to know where the "smart money" is going and where the rest is going?

It's not enough to know we are in a bull market, do you know why? When does it stop being a bull market and how much of your profit are you willing to give back before you admit the run is over?
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Old 03-05-2013, 10:33 PM   #100
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Dang. So you probably also figured out I was being sarcastic when I said that I know you've made a lot of money on the stock market with your day trading operation, then?
I will be the first to admit I don't have the stomach for daytrading. I made 3 attempts at it, made more than I lost but didn't like doing it once I got into it. I'm more of a swing trader and I have been so busy with work I haven't even been able to do that much.
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Old 03-05-2013, 10:34 PM   #101
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I just follow bogleheads and Random Walk investment theories. I don't actually reinvent the wheel, just follow the experts who've studied the perfect wheel.
Blindly following their strategies will only get you took. All investment strategies work until they don't. Their principles are great and a solid investment plan but many times there are clear cut signals to sell. Rebalancing more often tends to help mitigate this, but in the modern financial world asset correlations have been pushing closer to 1 (which means that everything tends to move together) so diversification is not the panacea that it once was.

You don't have to trade as often as pete to be a successful investor, but you should definitely take an active role (that doesn't mean just trading). Find some commentators that you like and follow them. Pay attention to how they analyze things. Eventually you will start to look at the source material yourself without needing their analysis first (this will take awhile depending on how much time and effort you want/can put into it).

The key to successful investing is preservation of capital. If you avoid major draw downs of capital, then you are much further ahead of the game. A 50% loss requires a 100% game to get back to break even. Don't be afraid to sit out periods of time. Jesse Livermore, the original technical trader, said there should only be 2-3 times a year where you should be fully invested. Now, I don't agree with that completely but the wisdom to glean from it is more important. If things are not favorable and you aren't comfortable with the conditions, don't be afraid to sit in cash.

I disagree with Pete about the current state of the market. It's going to continue on like this for awhile. We will probably get some 5% corrections here and there, but the direction is up. Companies have reduced earnings expectations for the last couple quarters so they are beating on earnings now. Couple that with the Fed throwing money at the market and you have the recipie for a bull market.
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Old 03-05-2013, 10:35 PM   #102
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No, I just want to know where the "smart money" is going and where the rest is going?

It's not enough to know we are in a bull market, do you know why? When does it stop being a bull market and how much of your profit are you willing to give back before you admit the run is over?
I have no idea where the smart money is going. I have no idea what the stock market is going to do 2 months from now or 2 years from now. I don't predict that stuff. It's a loser's game, in general. All I do is say that right now, people's action in the stock market shows confidence in the economy.
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Old 03-05-2013, 10:37 PM   #103
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Originally Posted by La literatura View Post
I have no idea where the smart money is going. I have no idea what the stock market is going to do 2 months from now or 2 years from now. I don't predict that stuff. It's a loser's game, in general. All I do is say that right now, people's action in the stock market shows confidence in the economy.
Or are the people who felt left out of the run all jumping in out of fear of missing the boat?
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Old 03-05-2013, 10:38 PM   #104
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Like, you want names and companies? I think I did pretty well getting us to the point where we can agree that we're currently in a bull market.
Bull Market over what time frame? We've been in a secular bear since about when the tech bubble burst. I think we'll be in a secular bull either around now or the near future.

Barry Rithotlz (yes, I really like this guy and his takes, process etc) has done work on longer term secular market cycles (he's not the only one either). I'm not going to try and recall the lengths, size of draw down, and other specifics but I find that shit fascinating.
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Old 03-05-2013, 10:39 PM   #105
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Blindly following their strategies will only get you took. All investment strategies work until they don't. Their principles are great and a solid investment plan but many times there are clear cut signals to sell. Rebalancing more often tends to help mitigate this, but in the modern financial world asset correlations have been pushing closer to 1 (which means that everything tends to move together) so diversification is not the panacea that it once was.

You don't have to trade as often as pete to be a successful investor, but you should definitely take an active role (that doesn't mean just trading). Find some commentators that you like and follow them. Pay attention to how they analyze things. Eventually you will start to look at the source material yourself without needing their analysis first (this will take awhile depending on how much time and effort you want/can put into it).

The key to successful investing is preservation of capital. If you avoid major draw downs of capital, then you are much further ahead of the game. A 50% loss requires a 100% game to get back to break even. Don't be afraid to sit out periods of time. Jesse Livermore, the original technical trader, said there should only be 2-3 times a year where you should be fully invested. Now, I don't agree with that completely but the wisdom to glean from it is more important. If things are not favorable and you aren't comfortable with the conditions, don't be afraid to sit in cash.

I disagree with Pete about the current state of the market. It's going to continue on like this for awhile. We will probably get some 5% corrections here and there, but the direction is up. Companies have reduced earnings expectations for the last couple quarters so they are beating on earnings now. Couple that with the Fed throwing money at the market and you have the recipie for a bull market.
FTR, I wasn't calling for a bear market. I just think we are propped up for wrong reasons and if signs of a truly improving economy continue to emerge then the Fed is going to have to abandon their QE which is going to set off some selling....plus you have summer coming up around the corner. I generally start easing off my positions about now anyway. I get tired of the summer volatility.
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